MH17 down near Donetsk
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 41
Likes: 0
From: Sentul
As someonw who had lost some dear friends on this tragic flight, I am utterly dismayed at the political agenda of both the Ukranian as well pro - Russian rebel crowd in regurgitating news reports that serve their patrons.
What is most telling that stymie the investigation is the REFUSAL TO HAND OVER ATC TAPES.
What is most telling that stymie the investigation is the REFUSAL TO HAND OVER ATC TAPES.
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 142
Likes: 0
From: Sandpit
Refusal to hand over tapes
Unfortunately the "News" to Ukraine refusing to cooperate is part of the Maskirovka from Russian media system. Intentional with government sanction, your guess is as good as mine.
However it's not factual and a downright lie that Ukrainian ATC or UKATSE would not have handed their ATC recordings to the investigators.
An exert from the interim accident reports states:
The replay of the CVR matched ATC communications with the aircraft (see ATC transcript). The recording also included crew communication which gave no indication that there was anything abnormal with the flight.
Indicating that Ukraine would have provided the transcripts.
Further
2.5.4
ATC transcript UkSATSE provided the recording and a transcript of the radio (RAD) and telephone communications regarding flight MH17.
Spreading ill educated lies, origins of which are from the spam factory is neither helpful nor does it contribute to the discussion but rather diverts the attention away from actual facts and what are known as facts. Same category as the SU25 shoot down theories, a fabrication.
However it's not factual and a downright lie that Ukrainian ATC or UKATSE would not have handed their ATC recordings to the investigators.
An exert from the interim accident reports states:
The replay of the CVR matched ATC communications with the aircraft (see ATC transcript). The recording also included crew communication which gave no indication that there was anything abnormal with the flight.
Indicating that Ukraine would have provided the transcripts.
Further
2.5.4
ATC transcript UkSATSE provided the recording and a transcript of the radio (RAD) and telephone communications regarding flight MH17.
Spreading ill educated lies, origins of which are from the spam factory is neither helpful nor does it contribute to the discussion but rather diverts the attention away from actual facts and what are known as facts. Same category as the SU25 shoot down theories, a fabrication.
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 1,643
Likes: 0
From: UK
There was a very bias ed documentary on RT this morning pointing the finger at Ukraine, I hope others get the chance to see it as it seemed to be a load of smoke and mirrors, either that or all the evidence so far is only presumed..
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 350
Likes: 0
From: ***
It would be great help to investigation if they reveal where the BUK launcher with the removed identification number & missing missile is.
A chemical analysis could provide evidence of explosives or the abrasion of projectiles.
A blast pattern could be established.
The breakup could be put into context with the timeline.
According to one of the videos, the military of Donetsk's Peoples Republic would grant free access.
But noone is interested. No dutch team, no americans, no EU.
On what are the investigators working now if they are some 3000km away from the wreck?
On the other 777 they are spending millions and millions to find at least a little piece, but on this one they try to write a report without research.
Looks like all "proof" will be supplied by "government sources"...
Whatever the outcome of this investigation will be must be doubted.
PS: Just imagine what it must feel like for the locals to have all this bent metal on their fields, and to have to look at it every day.
Last edited by Admiral346; 24th October 2014 at 07:26. Reason: spelling
Joined: Sep 2014
Posts: 26
Likes: 0
From: Finland
>military of Donetsk's Peoples Republic would grant free access
Currently inspectors are on the site gathering people's belongings.
But it is still an active war zone, some 20km from the front line. (very heavy fighting at Debaltseve 10km (or so) from nearest plane debris, 25km from Hrabove)
Untill recently the area has had limited access and the rest considered dangerous.
Other than that, yes, really weird why some of the wreck is still there (only stolen parts moved away).
More... my 100% amateur estimation of the situation on crash zone (under current "ceasefire"):
Rebel motorized howizers and Grad lauchers move around the area to daily shell Ukrainian positions, there might be ammunition flying above the crash site even.
When Ukrainian postitions are attacked, Ukraine artilery radars find out the trajectory of the hostile fire and they most likely fire back to the previous estimated location of the howizer or grad launcher.
Howizers reach 20...55 km depending on ammunition, grad rockets roughly similarly. (I assume rebels do not have the latest far reaching ammunition, though)
So, I could be totally wrong, but as the ceasefire is very fragile, it is insanely dangerous to be on the crash site.
UPDATE: In the following image the yellow line is the front line, it even crosses the MH17 debris zone. Also one can see how close the shells hit.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B0uZ5TjIUAAc4-k.png
Currently inspectors are on the site gathering people's belongings.
But it is still an active war zone, some 20km from the front line. (very heavy fighting at Debaltseve 10km (or so) from nearest plane debris, 25km from Hrabove)
Untill recently the area has had limited access and the rest considered dangerous.
Other than that, yes, really weird why some of the wreck is still there (only stolen parts moved away).
More... my 100% amateur estimation of the situation on crash zone (under current "ceasefire"):
Rebel motorized howizers and Grad lauchers move around the area to daily shell Ukrainian positions, there might be ammunition flying above the crash site even.
When Ukrainian postitions are attacked, Ukraine artilery radars find out the trajectory of the hostile fire and they most likely fire back to the previous estimated location of the howizer or grad launcher.
Howizers reach 20...55 km depending on ammunition, grad rockets roughly similarly. (I assume rebels do not have the latest far reaching ammunition, though)
So, I could be totally wrong, but as the ceasefire is very fragile, it is insanely dangerous to be on the crash site.
UPDATE: In the following image the yellow line is the front line, it even crosses the MH17 debris zone. Also one can see how close the shells hit.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B0uZ5TjIUAAc4-k.png
Last edited by sotilaspassi; 24th October 2014 at 20:00.
Joined: Jul 2014
Posts: 42
Likes: 0
From: Netherlands
Safety of the crash site
In earlier posts I mentioned the dutch uncle that went to look for the remains of his niece, and who is still in the area. He wrote on Twitter he had to take shelter when a bomb exploded close to his hotel.
MH17-nabestaande in Oekraïne schuilt voor bom | RTL Nieuws
He was very angry that the dutch didn't restart the investigation and recovery effort, but after being at the crash site, and experiencing the fighting around him he, at least in part, has more understanding to the dutch position.
Because of him, Dutch parlement has less understanding of the dutch position, so pressure is put on the kabinet:
"Als burgers zoals deze mijnheer naar dit gebied kunnen, is het toch ook te doen voor onderzoekers", zegt Kamerlid Harry van Bommel (SP) in de krant.
If civilians like this gentleman can go to the crash area, than it should also be possible for the investigators.
A safe crash site does mean something in this case, because the crash site is 30 square km in size, about a quarter or third or so of the rebel strongholds. Something to remember.
MH17-nabestaande in Oekraïne schuilt voor bom | RTL Nieuws
He was very angry that the dutch didn't restart the investigation and recovery effort, but after being at the crash site, and experiencing the fighting around him he, at least in part, has more understanding to the dutch position.
Because of him, Dutch parlement has less understanding of the dutch position, so pressure is put on the kabinet:
"Als burgers zoals deze mijnheer naar dit gebied kunnen, is het toch ook te doen voor onderzoekers", zegt Kamerlid Harry van Bommel (SP) in de krant.
If civilians like this gentleman can go to the crash area, than it should also be possible for the investigators.
A safe crash site does mean something in this case, because the crash site is 30 square km in size, about a quarter or third or so of the rebel strongholds. Something to remember.
Joined: Jul 2014
Posts: 42
Likes: 0
From: Netherlands
handing over the black boxes
Because some people think that the rebels were nice to hand over the FDR and CVR to the malayans, some background information might be prudent here.
First of all, shortly after the disaster, the rebels claimed to have found de CVR and FDR more than once, but it seemed that finally they got their hands on the right orange boxes.
Officially the Ukraine government should carry out the investigation. The rebels would never turn the CVR/FDR over to the government, obviously from pure distrust. No party would ever consider that an Ukraine investigation would be independent, even if it was. So the Ukraine transfered the investigation responsibility to the dutch, because they have the most victims and are certainly more neutral and considered a friendly EU nation.
The rebels only wanted to turn the CVR/FDR to Russia and let Russia do the investigation, simply because they trust their ally. However, Russia refused, because accepting the boxes and handing these over to the Dutch would make Russia vulnerable for accusations of manipulation of the boxes. Just like Ukraine, Russia, being a party in the conflict, is incredible as a lead investigator.
Malaysia, Australia and The Netherlands didn't want to go directly to the rebels because doing so would imply a legal status to the DNR or whatever they call themselves. The rebels wanted a public show for the transfer of the boxes, because it makes good propaganda. Malaysia considered the recovery of the CVR/FDR more important than the propaganda gain for the DNR.
It is however questionable, with the rebels who aim at close relations with Russia, and Ukraine goverment who aim at close relations with the EU, that an EU-country like The Netherlands, despite having a history of good relations with Russia, is considered a neutral authority by the rebels. A malaysian or IATA led investigation would not have that problem.
First of all, shortly after the disaster, the rebels claimed to have found de CVR and FDR more than once, but it seemed that finally they got their hands on the right orange boxes.
Officially the Ukraine government should carry out the investigation. The rebels would never turn the CVR/FDR over to the government, obviously from pure distrust. No party would ever consider that an Ukraine investigation would be independent, even if it was. So the Ukraine transfered the investigation responsibility to the dutch, because they have the most victims and are certainly more neutral and considered a friendly EU nation.
The rebels only wanted to turn the CVR/FDR to Russia and let Russia do the investigation, simply because they trust their ally. However, Russia refused, because accepting the boxes and handing these over to the Dutch would make Russia vulnerable for accusations of manipulation of the boxes. Just like Ukraine, Russia, being a party in the conflict, is incredible as a lead investigator.
Malaysia, Australia and The Netherlands didn't want to go directly to the rebels because doing so would imply a legal status to the DNR or whatever they call themselves. The rebels wanted a public show for the transfer of the boxes, because it makes good propaganda. Malaysia considered the recovery of the CVR/FDR more important than the propaganda gain for the DNR.
It is however questionable, with the rebels who aim at close relations with Russia, and Ukraine goverment who aim at close relations with the EU, that an EU-country like The Netherlands, despite having a history of good relations with Russia, is considered a neutral authority by the rebels. A malaysian or IATA led investigation would not have that problem.
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 316
Likes: 0
From: wales
MH17 prosecutor open to theory another plane shot down airliner: Der Spiegel MH17 prosecutor open to theory another plane shot down airliner: Der Spiegel | Reuters
Joined: Jul 2014
Posts: 50
Likes: 0
From: Germany
Here is the Original:
Westerbeke: Ausgehend von den vorliegenden Informationen ist der Abschuss durch eine Boden-Luft-Rakete in meinen Augen noch immer das wahrscheinlichste Szenario. Aber wir verschließen nicht die Augen vor der Möglichkeit, dass es anders gewesen sein könnte.
Based on the available information, the launch is by a ground - to-air missile in my eyes is still the most likely scenario . But we do not close our eyes to the possibility that it might have been different.
MH17: Ermittler Westerbeke über den Absturz in der Ukraine - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Westerbeke: Ausgehend von den vorliegenden Informationen ist der Abschuss durch eine Boden-Luft-Rakete in meinen Augen noch immer das wahrscheinlichste Szenario. Aber wir verschließen nicht die Augen vor der Möglichkeit, dass es anders gewesen sein könnte.
Based on the available information, the launch is by a ground - to-air missile in my eyes is still the most likely scenario . But we do not close our eyes to the possibility that it might have been different.
MH17: Ermittler Westerbeke über den Absturz in der Ukraine - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 12
Likes: 0
From: Netherlands
Here is the Original:
Was the actual interview indeed conducted in German, given that it apparently took place in Amsterdam..(?)
What only could be called 'original', in my book, would be UNCUT recording of the interview from start to finish.
Please also notice that in English version of Spiegel website there is an English transcript, and in neiter of the 2 one can find any clue about the actual language been used, as well as any hint why Spiegel was given such interview in first place.
And the used headlines do differ significantly -
English:
Chief MH17 Investigator on German Claims: 'We Will Need Evidence'
German:
MH17-Chefermittler Westerbeke: "Wissen die Russen womöglich mehr?"
My own question - what else is 'tuned' in the content for the respective reader audiences?
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 801
Likes: 74
From: Germany
If you allow me to help with a translation from the Spiegel. Reuters omitted one question completely, thus falsifying the understanding of the complete statement.
SPIEGEL ONLINE:
Since some time Moskau is distributing the opinion, that the passenger jet was shot down by an ukraininina combat aircraft. You think that is possible?
"Based on the information available, a shooting-down by a ground-to-air missile is the most likely scenario, but we aren't closing our eyes to the possibility that it could have happened differently." .
Hope that helps
SPIEGEL ONLINE:
Moskau verbreitet seit einiger Zeit die Version, das Passagierflugzeug sei durch einen ukrainischen Kampfjet abgeschossen worden. Halten Sie das für möglich?
Westerbeke: Ausgehend von den vorliegenden Informationen ist der Abschuss durch eine Boden-Luft-Rakete in meinen Augen noch immer das wahrscheinlichste Szenario. Aber wir verschließen nicht die Augen vor der Möglichkeit, dass es anders gewesen sein könnte.
Hope that helps
Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 154
Likes: 0
From: California
Keep in mind that this is the same prosecutor who, after a month of investigation, could only determine with certainty that MH17 was destroyed by "high-energy objects from outside the aircraft". The current comment should probably be taken to understand that they are leaning towards a surface-to-air missile, but they can't rule out a Ukrainian Su-25, a meteorite, debris from a disintegrated spy satellite, or a particularly powerful (high-energy) hex cast on the aircraft or one of its passenger by a voodoo priest.
Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 10
Likes: 0
From: USA
I wonder why Westerbeke is open to the possibility that the source of the high energy objects was something other than a ground to air missile.
The last Westerbeke was in the news regarding MH17 was Sept. 12 when he said that investigators were particularly interested in 25 metal objects recovered from bodies and luggage. 500 foreign objects were found, but the focus was on 25 of them. This strikes me as selecting a sample to fit a theory rather than examining the whole population of foreign objects with a willingness to follow where the evidence leads.
Dutch hope metal shards will lead them to missile that hit MH17 | Reuters
BBC News - MH17 crash: Investigation focuses on '25 metal shards'
On Sept. 12 Westerbeke seemed confident that the sample would confirm that MH17 was shot down by a ground to air missile. Now, having plenty of time to thoroughly examine the sample of foreign metal objects, Westerbeke is open to the possibility that something other than a ground to air missile was the cause.
What does Westerbeke know that underlies his present position?
The last Westerbeke was in the news regarding MH17 was Sept. 12 when he said that investigators were particularly interested in 25 metal objects recovered from bodies and luggage. 500 foreign objects were found, but the focus was on 25 of them. This strikes me as selecting a sample to fit a theory rather than examining the whole population of foreign objects with a willingness to follow where the evidence leads.
Dutch hope metal shards will lead them to missile that hit MH17 | Reuters
BBC News - MH17 crash: Investigation focuses on '25 metal shards'
On Sept. 12 Westerbeke seemed confident that the sample would confirm that MH17 was shot down by a ground to air missile. Now, having plenty of time to thoroughly examine the sample of foreign metal objects, Westerbeke is open to the possibility that something other than a ground to air missile was the cause.
What does Westerbeke know that underlies his present position?
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 1,358
Likes: 3
From: NEW YORK
He specifically notes that the Russians may have more information regarding this event, so he does not exclude the second airplane hypothesis.
Overall, his comments, including his little aside that it took 3 years to determine who was responsible for Lockerbie, seem very professional.
Overall, his comments, including his little aside that it took 3 years to determine who was responsible for Lockerbie, seem very professional.
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 180
Likes: 0
From: Double Oak, Texas
Maybe the Dutch are waiting for the "irrefutable evidence" claimed by SecState Kerry to be in the possession of the US or the "mountain of evidence" claimed by Obama.
Maybe the Dutch are confused by the entry AND apparent exit holes in the structure remaining of the Captains window frame.
Maybe the Dutch are confused by the entry AND apparent exit holes in the structure remaining of the Captains window frame.
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 106
Likes: 0
From: Eastern Europe
The Dutch Board of Safety will not make any statements with regard to blame or liability and these issues will not form part of the investigation.
the chief investigator with the Dutch National Prosecutors' Office, which is currently looking into the circumstances behind the crash
the investigation was particularly interested in the origin of 25 pieces of iron, drawn from 500 samples.
Joined: Dec 2001
Posts: 941
Likes: 0
From: what U.S. calls Žold EuropeŽ
What relation prosecutors have to the Dutch Safety Board?
I wonder why Westerbeke is open to the possibility that the source of the high energy objects was something other than a ground to air missile.
25 metal objects recovered from bodies and luggage.
500 foreign objects were found, but the focus was on 25 of them.
Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 10
Likes: 0
From: USA
Dutch Safety Board chairman Tjibbe Joustra said on Sept. 09 that the metal objects embedded in bodies did not appear to be from the 777 fuselage.
Dutch Safety Board Investigation Comes Forward With Details On What Hit Flight MH17
The Reuters article that I cited says "500 forensic samples taken from the bodies of the victims and luggage...", so I'm pretty sure the population size of the fragments is 500.
Westerbeke said in the Der Spiegel interview that so far there are no results from the analysis of the 25 fragments. This is the 50th day after the foreign objects have become public knowledge. Investigators have probably known since late July. After all this time they're not sure if the samples are from a BUK, an R-60, or something else. Hence Westerbeke can't rule out fire from a fighter aircraft.
Meanwhile for all we know 475 other objects wait to be carefully analyzed. This process is painfully slow.
Dutch Safety Board Investigation Comes Forward With Details On What Hit Flight MH17
The Reuters article that I cited says "500 forensic samples taken from the bodies of the victims and luggage...", so I'm pretty sure the population size of the fragments is 500.
Westerbeke said in the Der Spiegel interview that so far there are no results from the analysis of the 25 fragments. This is the 50th day after the foreign objects have become public knowledge. Investigators have probably known since late July. After all this time they're not sure if the samples are from a BUK, an R-60, or something else. Hence Westerbeke can't rule out fire from a fighter aircraft.
Meanwhile for all we know 475 other objects wait to be carefully analyzed. This process is painfully slow.
Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 22
Likes: 0
From: Mos Espa
After all this time they're not sure if the samples are from a BUK, an R-60, or something else.
MH17 shot downed by BUK missile's high-explosive warhead with strike elements. Many holes with damage from cubes and cuboids. It sign of this missile!
Not round holes from aircannon (penetration shells), not multiple explosives damages inside plane (HE shells), not pieces of construction cutted by chainsaw - long and uninterrupted (by continous rods warhead like R-60).
Hence Westerbeke can't rule out fire from a fighter aircraft.
It physically impossible.
Any earth gun even in static position (on fixed weapon mount) will place holes on static target with dispersion from point of targetting which descripted by normal circle statistic probability (circular error probality) and shown as Gaussian bell curve. It called in ballistic as Ballistic Dispersion.
That mean no one shell dont go only in target point but usually deviated from it and only random shells hit target very close to target point.
Remember it static weapon mount.
On real fighter, aircannon have very big ballistic dispersion so fighter must carry rapid fire gun (for make enough shots per limited time) and big ammo.
For one-two hits to enemy plane, fighter must produce at least 50-100 and more shots. You can imagine how spread out all these shells if only 2% will hit square 10x10m.
MH17 was not static target but have 300 m/s speed and at least same speed must have interceptor (for pursue and correct errors during interception), Summary it 600 m/s. On that speed aircannon shells must puncture all Boeing from cabin to aft. And dont by stroke but by dispersed holes.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...40/fig3-10.gif
But we can see a cabin with linear distributed big holes from cubes which mean dynamic field of strike elements (Buk warhead) where each element start fly in touch with other elements so they redistributed in space with equal probability (exception non-system elements and pieces of equipment, corpse).
Despite on any personal lie ballistic and physic cannot lie.
DSB dont have expierence in work with military equipment like strike elements from Buk warhead it why they cannot say immedeately what author of damage. And investigation is slow and accurrate proccess when any piece must be descripted, attached and found source/target. Only this make investigation is investigation, dont smoke club.
Last edited by anonymousdefender; 29th October 2014 at 14:35.
