MH17 down near Donetsk
Joined: Jul 2014
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From: UK
BUK in Torez
Torez BUK analysis has gone pretty viral and seems to be quite reliable in its mature form, like this one: о сомнительном буке замолвите слово. It's in Russian, but the key items are photos, videos and links to Yandex maps.
Joined: Sep 2011
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From: 40 North 75 West
That would imply, the rocket actually exploded above and ahead of the aircraft, while all graphics shown so far seem to show an explosion in line of the approach from below (probably making use of the momentum the warhead already has approaching at supersonic speed).
It is quite possible that the missile did intercept the aircraft from above.
It is quite possible that the missile did intercept the aircraft from above.
Joined: Jun 2014
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From: Montenegro
I think that the intercepted call is genuine which would mean that missile is fired and the plane went down, so do the math what would be the probability that it missed the plane and at the very same moment a planted bomb was activated...
Joined: Aug 2013
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From: PA
If that's true and the missile originated on the ground somewhere ahead of MH17, it's possible that the flight crew may have seen the missile (and it's smokey trail) rising and maneuvering ahead of them??? If so, the CVR becomes of increased interest.
Really doubt, the pilots were looking down, nor would see something coming straight at them.
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,088
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From: England
@ZeBedie
Quote:
Is there any chance that a Ukrainian military transport would be heading East into Russia, as MH17 was? Is the Ukrainian government on good enough terms with Moscow for that to be possible?
The strategy of Kiev gov was to surround the rebel cities and cut them of from supposed logistical support from Russia. The only way they could supply their troops was by air. See map: blue and yellow (flag of Ukraine) is the area controlled by Kiev gov. Clearly they were fighting the situtation where their yellow area of advancement on the Russian border was facing the danger of being surrounded.
Similarly, the Kiev troops had a reason to activate their SAMs because they made a claim that it is Russian jets that are shooting down their transports, and not rebel SAMs.
Russian jets shoot down Ukrainian warplane over Ukraine: Kiev military
Clearly, both sides had reasons to use SAMs in that mess.
Quote:
Is there any chance that a Ukrainian military transport would be heading East into Russia, as MH17 was? Is the Ukrainian government on good enough terms with Moscow for that to be possible?
The strategy of Kiev gov was to surround the rebel cities and cut them of from supposed logistical support from Russia. The only way they could supply their troops was by air. See map: blue and yellow (flag of Ukraine) is the area controlled by Kiev gov. Clearly they were fighting the situtation where their yellow area of advancement on the Russian border was facing the danger of being surrounded.
Similarly, the Kiev troops had a reason to activate their SAMs because they made a claim that it is Russian jets that are shooting down their transports, and not rebel SAMs.
Russian jets shoot down Ukrainian warplane over Ukraine: Kiev military
Clearly, both sides had reasons to use SAMs in that mess.
Visually, it looked civilian, on radar, too high to land in Ukraine and ground speed double that of the An22 they thought they'd hit?
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From: Holly Beach, Louisiana
Joined: Dec 2013
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From: Paso Robles
Doesn't this point to an unskilled (Pro Russia separatist) operator, rather than a Russian specialist detached to the separatists?
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From: Germany
Joined: Jun 2004
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From: Lincs
KatSLF,
The following link is my post on Metabunk. The Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs claims that the video was taken in Lugansk.
If it was taken in Krasnoarmeysk then it should be relatively easy for journalists, etc to find the exact place of filming.
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/cla...-3#post-117549
The claim of Krasnoarmeysk comes from the following on social media. See link for copy of the social media post.
Google translation
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/cla...-2#post-117195
The following link is my post on Metabunk. The Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs claims that the video was taken in Lugansk.
If it was taken in Krasnoarmeysk then it should be relatively easy for journalists, etc to find the exact place of filming.
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/cla...-3#post-117549
The claim of Krasnoarmeysk comes from the following on social media. See link for copy of the social media post.
Google translation
In the Ukrainian public servers distributed video where militias allegedly trafficked to the side Russian gunman Beech.
But the video Krasnoarmiysk city, visible billboard advertising dealership to Dnipropetrovsk, 34. May 11, and is still under the control of the city junta troops conducting ATO!
On Boquete lacks one rocket. Pictures and videos of the towing vehicle (the same) has a shop STROYDOM. Address: Krasnoarmiysk, Gorky 49. Beech
That is the shooter was on the territory controlled by the junta and still there. What issues? All clear as day - Boeing Ukrainian military shot down here it's the most Buck, and now to the network leaked video was not compromising just stupid they are cutting all the blame on others, such as this "militia driven". Remain true to their nature brehlivoy (Odessites themselves burned themselves luganchane blew air conditioning, DNR shoots itself on cities and so on)
But the video Krasnoarmiysk city, visible billboard advertising dealership to Dnipropetrovsk, 34. May 11, and is still under the control of the city junta troops conducting ATO!
On Boquete lacks one rocket. Pictures and videos of the towing vehicle (the same) has a shop STROYDOM. Address: Krasnoarmiysk, Gorky 49. Beech
That is the shooter was on the territory controlled by the junta and still there. What issues? All clear as day - Boeing Ukrainian military shot down here it's the most Buck, and now to the network leaked video was not compromising just stupid they are cutting all the blame on others, such as this "militia driven". Remain true to their nature brehlivoy (Odessites themselves burned themselves luganchane blew air conditioning, DNR shoots itself on cities and so on)
Joined: Jun 2010
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From: East of Eden
@TEEEJ
Graphics at links you showed identify the place where BUK with missing missile is moving through as Luhansk. Google maps links to the exact place and all.
Problem is - this was where heavy fighting was going on for several days and per official news releases all of Luhansk was "liberated" around the time when the missile launcher was supposedly being moved without any escort though there.
Luhansk Offensive Liberation: Anti-terrorist Forces Took Control of the South-Eastern Part of Luhansk ? Defense Ministry - Presidential Administration, Alpha, fighter, Lugansk, min defense, Security Service of Ukraine, separatism, terrorism, Ukraine,
So, the rebels fired the missile and were moving it toward and through heavy concentration of Ukrainian troops and not away from it? This is completely bonkers. Obviously the photo is old, doctored, or it is Ukrainian troops moving the missile launcher.
All it proves, like others already suggested that there were/are BUK SAMs in Ukraine and is of the same significance as discovering that there are Ford Trucks in the US.
Graphics at links you showed identify the place where BUK with missing missile is moving through as Luhansk. Google maps links to the exact place and all.
Problem is - this was where heavy fighting was going on for several days and per official news releases all of Luhansk was "liberated" around the time when the missile launcher was supposedly being moved without any escort though there.
Luhansk Offensive Liberation: Anti-terrorist Forces Took Control of the South-Eastern Part of Luhansk ? Defense Ministry - Presidential Administration, Alpha, fighter, Lugansk, min defense, Security Service of Ukraine, separatism, terrorism, Ukraine,
So, the rebels fired the missile and were moving it toward and through heavy concentration of Ukrainian troops and not away from it? This is completely bonkers. Obviously the photo is old, doctored, or it is Ukrainian troops moving the missile launcher.
All it proves, like others already suggested that there were/are BUK SAMs in Ukraine and is of the same significance as discovering that there are Ford Trucks in the US.
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 196
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From: Auckland
There's a fair chance MH370 was taken by a rebel and MH17 was downed by rebels, the first action deliberate, demonstrating great competence; the second by accident, showing none.
I seriously question the ability of the authorities to predict or prevent these rare and random occurrences, or mitigate the risk at reasonable cost.
It all stems from governments. The Malaysian rulers antagonised opponents, jailing one for "sodomy". Some Ukrainians ousted their democratically elected government, possibly with help from the CIA, and a civil war ensued.
The loss of life in illegal or unnecessary wars waged by Baby Bush and Big Blair, was "democratic". This is "evil" and "criminal". Simple but no help.
I seriously question the ability of the authorities to predict or prevent these rare and random occurrences, or mitigate the risk at reasonable cost.
It all stems from governments. The Malaysian rulers antagonised opponents, jailing one for "sodomy". Some Ukrainians ousted their democratically elected government, possibly with help from the CIA, and a civil war ensued.
The loss of life in illegal or unnecessary wars waged by Baby Bush and Big Blair, was "democratic". This is "evil" and "criminal". Simple but no help.
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 42
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From: Sydney (Aust)
All it proves, like others already suggested that there were/are BUK SAMs in Ukraine and is of the same significance as discovering that there are Ford Trucks in the US.
But there is one with a missile missing. How many others have they been using, lately? that we know of? did someone casually video one with a missing missile weeks ago, then post it a day after the plane went down? was Luhansk bristling with Government troops by then? or just been recaptured and left alone? would anyone non-military go up and challenge a passing missile launcher as to who's driving it ? especially if they're in uniform? or even anyone military if not at a checkpoint?
OKAY let's say it was an official one, not a separatist one. How does that change the big picture?
* the pressure is off Russia
* the pressure is on Kiev big time
* very red faces for USA
* lot less excuse for official troops to make this mistake, as assumedly they'd have more command and control in place to identify it correctly
I absolutely can't see it being deliberate, ie a shot at a known civilian craft.
Joined: Jun 2009
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From: in a plasma cocoon
What could be learnt from the CVR/DFR ?
Some picts of debris (some being reinforced structural elements) peppered with a high density of small holes tell already so much...
Could the recorders collect data between the moment when the plane was riddled by high speed incandescent metal projectiles (detonation of the fragmentation warhead) and when the aircell integrity was compromised (the A/C dislocated) ? What could be the usefull data then ? the many subsequent failures, sudden inertial perturbations,...? Could the inertial data & modelling give an idea about the terminal trajectory of the missile ?
Could the recorders collect data between the moment when the plane was riddled by high speed incandescent metal projectiles (detonation of the fragmentation warhead) and when the aircell integrity was compromised (the A/C dislocated) ? What could be the usefull data then ? the many subsequent failures, sudden inertial perturbations,...? Could the inertial data & modelling give an idea about the terminal trajectory of the missile ?
Joined: Jun 2010
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From: East of Eden
@KatSLF
All I am saying this whole thing with the BUK launcher on a truck is a red herring, designed to get everyone excited.
Either I am completely dense or these guys who fired BUK are. See what I mean.
Suppose that US is right that the missile was fired from around Snizhne. This is a good location for it from the rebels perspective. The biggest thing they have to worry about is successful resupply of gov troops (ammo, equipment or paratroopers) advancing near Sverdlovsk.
Suppose you are a rebel, you know you screwed up and you want to cover up.
- Why not dump the whole thing into a river or a lake, or blow it up and dump it? The damn thing is a tracked vehicle so all you have to worry about is not leaving a complete trail if you don't want it found.
- If you really feel you need to take it back (south) to Russia, then Snizne is only some 20 km from the border with Russia. No good road connects advanced gov positions along Russian border near Anvorosiivka, Sverdlovsk and the boonies you need to cross to get to Russia.
- You have a tracked vehicle, you don't even need a road. 20 minutes and you are in Russia.
- If gov troops are on the road you can drive through fields, its night, small chances they will be ready with anti-armor weapons to chase after you through the fields.
- But no - you decide to load the damn thing on a truck, thus depriving it of combat value and combat maneuverability - and without any escort drive it more than 100 km north to Luhansk - and place of very heavy concentration of gov troops. Why?
Conclusion. It is all BS. Some kid saw BUK being moved around and decided he figured it out. Perhaps someone purposely moved them around to add confusion and even maybe ditched one of the missiles to get onlookers (and sat surveillance analyzers) excited. Then you "get caught" and produce the truck and the launcher that was on it and show it to be some old stripped down junk incapable of getting off the truck and firing. You were just trying to prevent those other bad guys from having it for missiles, and other spare parts, blah, blah. Falsely accused, blah blah. Meanwhile, the real thing went the other way.
Critical at this point where was the damn thing really fired from? If I were on the ground I would drive around looking for fresh armored vehicle tracks.
Now - I am not saying these idiots were all that smart. I am saying - don't expect them to be completely stupid.
https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Snizh...,+Ukraine&z=11
All I am saying this whole thing with the BUK launcher on a truck is a red herring, designed to get everyone excited.
Either I am completely dense or these guys who fired BUK are. See what I mean.
Suppose that US is right that the missile was fired from around Snizhne. This is a good location for it from the rebels perspective. The biggest thing they have to worry about is successful resupply of gov troops (ammo, equipment or paratroopers) advancing near Sverdlovsk.
Suppose you are a rebel, you know you screwed up and you want to cover up.
- Why not dump the whole thing into a river or a lake, or blow it up and dump it? The damn thing is a tracked vehicle so all you have to worry about is not leaving a complete trail if you don't want it found.
- If you really feel you need to take it back (south) to Russia, then Snizne is only some 20 km from the border with Russia. No good road connects advanced gov positions along Russian border near Anvorosiivka, Sverdlovsk and the boonies you need to cross to get to Russia.
- You have a tracked vehicle, you don't even need a road. 20 minutes and you are in Russia.
- If gov troops are on the road you can drive through fields, its night, small chances they will be ready with anti-armor weapons to chase after you through the fields.
- But no - you decide to load the damn thing on a truck, thus depriving it of combat value and combat maneuverability - and without any escort drive it more than 100 km north to Luhansk - and place of very heavy concentration of gov troops. Why?
Conclusion. It is all BS. Some kid saw BUK being moved around and decided he figured it out. Perhaps someone purposely moved them around to add confusion and even maybe ditched one of the missiles to get onlookers (and sat surveillance analyzers) excited. Then you "get caught" and produce the truck and the launcher that was on it and show it to be some old stripped down junk incapable of getting off the truck and firing. You were just trying to prevent those other bad guys from having it for missiles, and other spare parts, blah, blah. Falsely accused, blah blah. Meanwhile, the real thing went the other way.
Critical at this point where was the damn thing really fired from? If I were on the ground I would drive around looking for fresh armored vehicle tracks.
Now - I am not saying these idiots were all that smart. I am saying - don't expect them to be completely stupid.
https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Snizh...,+Ukraine&z=11
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 43
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From: NC
Vitaly Nayda, Ukraine's director of informational security was on CNN saying they taped a conversation between Moscow and an officer minutes before the launch reporting that a plane was coming.
Who knows what to believe anymore with so much misinformation, but this did seem to make some sense. I'd been wondering how the SA-11 operators initially acquired the plane with such a narrow beamed radar. It's a lot like looking through a soda straw trying to find something. It's great for tracking but lousey for searching. It can search the skies around it but it takes minutes for just one complete scan 360 degrees around. I believe it was too cloudy that day to see it and likely too high to hear. But, if they did get a heads-up report on the approaching aircraft then it would be much easier to scan a small sector in the expected direction to acquire and lock on.
"We taped conversations" between a Russian officer and his office in Moscow, Nayda said. "We know for sure that several minutes before the missile was launched, there was a report" to a Russian officer that the plane was coming, he said.
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 78
Likes: 19
From: Nova Scotia
Some pics from the cockpit area on this twitter feed.
http://t.co/mQ9eViLNei
pic.twitter.com/wft8yJRcxL
http://t.co/mQ9eViLNei
pic.twitter.com/wft8yJRcxL
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 180
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From: North of Antartica
RH cockpit window frame
This image shows cockpit seat rails and rear centre consul. Note at bottom what appears to be RH / first officers windscreen frame with shrapnel egress.
https://secure.flickr.com/photos/jer...7595/lightbox/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeroen...ream/lightbox/
same windscreen from different angle amongst plant. *note what appears to be shrapnel damage to pilots seat back just below top inertia reel.
https://secure.flickr.com/photos/jer...7595/lightbox/
https://secure.flickr.com/photos/jer...7595/lightbox/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeroen...ream/lightbox/
same windscreen from different angle amongst plant. *note what appears to be shrapnel damage to pilots seat back just below top inertia reel.
https://secure.flickr.com/photos/jer...7595/lightbox/
Last edited by Heli-phile; 23rd July 2014 at 03:35. Reason: added relevant images
Joined: May 2014
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From: Sydney (Aust)
More shrapnel photos
Heli-phile has found a phenomenal source. Professional news photographer who knows what to shoot and has a great camera. Dozens of shots of DAMAGE. 100% this was shot down.
https://secure.flickr.com/photos/jeroenakkermans/
This guy is THE GUY for this. He is a region expert and even has an entry in the Dutch Wikipedia. Here is my translation:
Jeroen Akkermans started at RTL News in 1989 as a producer, editor and reporter at the special European desk. In 1991 Akkermans became a correspondent in Moscow. His earlier experience was for Super Channel, Reuters TV and European Business Today. In Russia, he made the documentary Hostages of the Gulag.
In 1994 he received the Dick Scherpenzeel Prize for his reports on the war in Chechnya.
From 1996 to 2001 Akkermans was a correspondent in London. <snip boring stuff>
After 2001 Akkermans, based in Berlin, travelled Eastern Europe and the Balkans as a correspondent for Yahoo! News.
On August 12, 2008, his leg was injured during a Russian bombardment in the Georgian town of Gori. Cameraman Stan Storimans was killed in the explosion. In 2009 Akkermans returned to Georgia and made a documentary based on this missile attack. Akkermans, together with the widow of Stan Storimans and Georgian survivors of the attack on Gori sued Russia the Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg. [result not given in story]
In 2009 he published a book, There Are Limits, about the euphoria and disappointments of Europe.
In 2011 Akkermans made the documentary Chernobyl, 25 years after the disaster.
He knows what to look for, knows what he's seeing. And must understand the language (even if maybe he can't speak it).
AHHH he didn't just arrive, he's been there for a while, he has albums from various earlier stages of the conflict. Guy's a war correspondent.
https://secure.flickr.com/photos/jeroenakkermans/
This guy is THE GUY for this. He is a region expert and even has an entry in the Dutch Wikipedia. Here is my translation:
Jeroen Akkermans started at RTL News in 1989 as a producer, editor and reporter at the special European desk. In 1991 Akkermans became a correspondent in Moscow. His earlier experience was for Super Channel, Reuters TV and European Business Today. In Russia, he made the documentary Hostages of the Gulag.
In 1994 he received the Dick Scherpenzeel Prize for his reports on the war in Chechnya.
From 1996 to 2001 Akkermans was a correspondent in London. <snip boring stuff>
After 2001 Akkermans, based in Berlin, travelled Eastern Europe and the Balkans as a correspondent for Yahoo! News.
On August 12, 2008, his leg was injured during a Russian bombardment in the Georgian town of Gori. Cameraman Stan Storimans was killed in the explosion. In 2009 Akkermans returned to Georgia and made a documentary based on this missile attack. Akkermans, together with the widow of Stan Storimans and Georgian survivors of the attack on Gori sued Russia the Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg. [result not given in story]
In 2009 he published a book, There Are Limits, about the euphoria and disappointments of Europe.
In 2011 Akkermans made the documentary Chernobyl, 25 years after the disaster.
He knows what to look for, knows what he's seeing. And must understand the language (even if maybe he can't speak it).
AHHH he didn't just arrive, he's been there for a while, he has albums from various earlier stages of the conflict. Guy's a war correspondent.
Last edited by KatSLF; 23rd July 2014 at 04:17. Reason: adding bio of Akkermans
