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MH17 down near Donetsk

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MH17 down near Donetsk

Old 18th Jul 2014, 16:47
  #341 (permalink)  
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I watched President Obama via CNN and there was discussion afterwards with 'experts'.

One of the experts explained that every radar system, as used for example on the Buk, has its own unique signature.

The US has the signature.

That may explain the video, if accurate, of the Buk being transported, less one missile, in the direction of the Russian border.

The rebels would not want the West to recover a Buk with that signature.
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Old 18th Jul 2014, 16:50
  #342 (permalink)  

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The rebels would not want the West to recover a Buk with that signature.
Neither would Putin.
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Old 18th Jul 2014, 16:51
  #343 (permalink)  
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Moto, agree. And if the suspect Buk has been sent back to Russia it is about concealing its origins, like whose inventory it was as on, whose inventory is it on now? Was it ever taken off inventory and if so, when?

Once over the border, "what missile launcher?"

On another thread - "we weren't there, and if we were there it wasn't us."
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Old 18th Jul 2014, 16:53
  #344 (permalink)  
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So true!
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Old 18th Jul 2014, 17:04
  #345 (permalink)  
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I find it strange in the extreme that this was a Malaysian Airlines aircraft. What are the chances of two coincidental hull losses of a type never been lost before in the space of a few months?
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Old 18th Jul 2014, 17:15
  #346 (permalink)  
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I'll say no more about the Vincennes/Iran Air than this. Willow Run's attempt to discriminate between two circumstantially different examples of grotesque incompetence is nothing more than sophistry. The fact that the outcomes should have both been quite different is something no doubt shared by the Vincennes' crew and the rabble operating the Buk system - who thought they'd brought down a Ukranian Antonov military transport.

I recall, some time in the early 90s, being shown a "USS Vincennes" baseball cap being proudly displayed in the home of a serving US Naval Intelligence officer of vocally Christian conviction. I still have no idea why an otherwise decent man should have been able to reconcile this crime with his beliefs, much less advertise it.
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Old 18th Jul 2014, 17:15
  #347 (permalink)  
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To Moto:

You wrote: "Facts are: a rebel pro-russian comander has claimed a shotdown via tweeter/facebook (don't remember now), promptly erased soon.. "

This is just not serious. Here in Russia people are surprised how non-professionally the pieces of data were manipulated.
First, all those rebel commanders (just in case, I have no much sympathy to them) do not use tweeter/facebook and other "kids stuff". I saw a TV interview with one of them and he clearly stated that. Every hacker can write "on their behalf". Regarding the voice conversation, it was assembled of fragments and actually they spoke about the plane which was about 100 km from MH.

What we have now is that
1. Mr. Obama surprisingly soon stated that the missile was launched by the rebels. Without clear technical data such as sensor records (with the proved device accuracy) these are just words.
2. The Russian defense ministry speaker announced they they recorded yesterday the radar activity of the Ukrainian missile complexes in the area (actually there are 3 Buks and 2 C-200/300 that could reach the plane). The same as above: with no accurate coordinates and specific "radar signature" (to be compared with those in database), this does not mean much. The question remains who actually operated the missile complex.
Thus, I am becoming skeptical that the truth would be uncovered. Only if the people involved start talking/wistleblowing.
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Old 18th Jul 2014, 17:15
  #348 (permalink)  
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If I recall my NATO Int Officer course stuff correctly, the US may already have that Buk's radar signature on the record somewhere. Of course, if the Rooskies have any brains, they will have (if they did) given the rebels a 'clean' one. It may also be possible to eliminate all the Ukranian ones, but I doubt that Putin will officially believe that.....

Keep it up A Van !...jokes on Friday are traditional on PPRuNe...in fact they have their own thread in Jet Blast!
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Old 18th Jul 2014, 17:16
  #349 (permalink)  
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African Skies

A good point indeed , the real concern for Malaysia is the impact this bad luck/bad karma has in their main, ie Asian market , where such things are taken very seriously indeed.

this is a tragedy but in its way is an accident because the Ukaine irregulars (described in one of the intercept transcripts as -the Cossacks) recklessly launched such a lethal missile without any rules of engagement or cross checking. In that respect I wonder if MH17 was contrailing , if it was NOT it would be far easier to make the mistake that is was smaller/lower and not an airliner because they always leave those white trails . well on hot dry day over the Ukraine plains 330 might not be high enough for condensation. Just a thought and certainly not an excuse
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Old 18th Jul 2014, 17:23
  #350 (permalink)  
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Terrorists with missiles

The Russians were cock a hoop when the Donetsk People's Republic claimed to have captured a Bukh battery from the Ukrainians only a few days ago:

Donetsk militia takes control of Ukrainian anti-air installation - News - World - The Voice of Russia: News, Breaking news, Politics, Economics, Business, Russia, International current events, Expert opinion, podcasts, Video

They were also delighted when the DPR claimed a couple of kills 2 days ago:

Self-defense fighters downed two Ukrainian strike aircraft ? Donetsk People's Republic - News - World - The Voice of Russia: News, Breaking news, Politics, Economics, Business, Russia, International current events, Expert opinion, podcasts, Video

If you claim to have Bukh SAMs and claim to have shot down enemy aircraft previously, don't be surprised if someone thinks you did it.
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Old 18th Jul 2014, 17:30
  #351 (permalink)  
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Radars operate on a nominal frequency. Some freaks are very precise. Depending on design and manufacture some will display discrete difference s.
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Old 18th Jul 2014, 17:32
  #352 (permalink)  
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Everyone could calm down, I guess myself included. This case will not be solved nor investigated based on social media indices or rhetoric slogans from anyone. As usual, it might take years, but a proper independent investigation will eventually unfold facts and probable events.
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Old 18th Jul 2014, 17:59
  #353 (permalink)  
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The NOTAMS are genuine

The NOTAM is genuine.......my company flew that route and I have been able to download the archived briefing pack. The FIR brief lists a whole range of coordinates and I plotted them. Surprise, surprise, they plot an area directly above the conflict zone. And there was NO upper limit specified.

MAS ran the gauntlet and they paid the price. This shows a wide spread failure in their management. Their mechanisms failed to identify a conflict area, and the pilots didn't recognize the RZ......perhaps because they got given a massive briefing pack which contained masses of superfluous information due to lack of filtration.
Old 18th Jul 2014, 18:03
  #354 (permalink)  
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Number of overflights by airlines in the last 7 days over the shoot-down area :

Malaysia Airlines MH17: Lufthansa überflog Ost-Ukraine 56 Mal - SPIEGEL ONLINE
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Old 18th Jul 2014, 18:27
  #355 (permalink)  
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Previous image was a little large.

Briefing for Ukraine Airspace 18JUL is at:

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Old 18th Jul 2014, 18:37
  #356 (permalink)  
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It is not the airlines that open and close airways.
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Old 18th Jul 2014, 18:37
  #357 (permalink)  
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@ alpha83

What is the source of this NOTAM? I only find that on internet forums. And it is contrary to what EUROCONTROL published:
According to our information, the aircraft was flying at Flight Level 330 (approximately 10,000 metres/33,000 feet) when it disappeared from the radar. This route had been closed by the Ukrainian authorities from ground to flight level 320 but was open at the level at which the aircraft was flying.

Can the moderators please enforce that quotes from other websites have a link to the source. It's a real bad habit on PPRuNe.

Last edited by hotzenplotz; 18th Jul 2014 at 18:59.
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Old 18th Jul 2014, 18:55
  #358 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Vilters

It is not the airlines that open and close airways
Very true; but the airlines can choose their routings. Nobody forces them.
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Old 18th Jul 2014, 19:00
  #359 (permalink)  
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Please excuse me if I try to clear my head on this, but I'm sure people here will correct my thinking. I have some experience of the ground side of Air Defence and also Int at MoD, so I'm not just an old ATCO.

The Exam questions in my mind are ... Who could have done this, and Why?

Motive. They have not been attacked on their own soil, so no reason to target any aircraft.
Opportunity. All the kit you would ever need.
Rationale? Unknown, unless imagining some convoluted tin-foil hat plot.
Excuses? Very unlikely this was an erroneous engagement by whatever the PVO is called this week.

Motive. Minimal, unless they did it and were trying to blacken the separatists.
Opportunity. Suitably equipped.
Rationale? None. Any idea that they engaged MH17 to discredit the rebels is ludicrous.
Excuses? Ineptitude has been mentioned. But a target at FL330 heading east is hardly a target, even if they had SAM systems in a suitable location with appropriate C3.

Motive. Apparently shoot at anything, air or ground, that potentially interferes with their desire to take over Eastern Ukraine.
Opportunity. Lack of "adult" C3, apart from assumed input from Russia. Systems acquired from takeover of Ukrainian bases, including Buk launchers (and associated vehicles?)
Rationale? Rational behaviour by the separatists (with or without Russian support/assistance) has not been in evidence since this started.
Excuses? Inept, hyper-active, lacking responsible leadership and command structure?

"I rest my case, My Lord"

(PS ... i'm not wasting time chasing bits of unverified information, or anything like that. I'm trying to get back to basics in my mind, and work from there)
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Old 18th Jul 2014, 19:10
  #360 (permalink)  
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Right, very easy.

Most of those consoles on that kit are system status indicators, if they are green you're good to go. The rest are controls for the displays and signal processing system for the radars or manual overrides to allow the system to be operated in the face of ECM or minor equipment system failures. If any of those systems break, you will need an experienced technician to fix them and if you're operating with friendly air forces and in an ECM environment experienced operators are a must, however the actual engagement sequence of this system from the layout of the kit is very likely to be very similar to that of most other Russian mobile SAM systems as they are all heavily automated. To engage a target once the system is fully run up, three or four actions by the man of the left after he has picked up the target on the search radar, three or four by the guy on the right hand console, missile away. Seeing that the kit has been kicking around since the mid 1980's it is very likely that there are plenty of ex Soviet / Russian / Ukrainian armed forces personnel about on the rebel side who could operate this system to a standard that would allow an aircraft at 33,000 ft to be engaged. The question is where did the missile system come from?
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