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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 10th Mar 2014, 00:49
  #1081 (permalink)  
 
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Can we please stop talking about submarines being used in the search? A conventional, military size submarine will NOT be operated under the surface in 50-100m of water. It would be akin to trying to stay VFR in a widebody with a cloud ceiling of 2500ft. A typical submarine is at least 20-25m in height from keel to top of conning tower or periscope. Even running at periscope depth would be far too risky due to chance of collision with surface vessels.
Submarine sonar systems are specifically developed to be used when running submerged, surface turbulence renders them useless, so they will only be used as another vessel running on the surface searching if they are even deployed.
Specialist vessels such as hydrographic or exploration vessels with accoustic/sonar/MAD technology will be far more effective.
Having said that, as these systems search on a cone (and will be lucky to be travelling at 6-12 knots), and that the water is so shallow, they will be greatly reduced in their effectiveness to cover a reasonable area.
Given that the water is so shallow, the most effective thing if no visible debris is found would be specialist aircraft such as the Orion if fitted with the MAD booms. They will also cover much more area much more rapidly than any surface search using this technology.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 00:50
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On the freefall time, the 3+ minute estimate is a bit off.

s=ut + 0.5at^2, assuming an initial vertical velocity of 0, and initial height s=8000m (I can't be bothered to convert 35,000' to m), would be around 40s.
But real world examples seem to tell different stories.
The Space Shuttle Challenger cockpit detached at 45,000 feet continued to 65,000 feet then free fell, slowly spinning for 2 min 25 seconds. Challenger 1

Footage of a go pro falling from 12500 feet, it fluttered and spun at 7 revs per second and took 2 minutes to hit the ground. A Go Pro weights 100 grams. (Note that the footage isn't verified)

Footage of HALO skydivers in free fall from 30000 ft reveal that they free fall for a few minutes before they deploy chutes at 5,000 feet.

Surely the aerodynamics of unknown shapes are impossible to factor?


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Old 10th Mar 2014, 00:51
  #1083 (permalink)  
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As has been mentioned before here, given the huge number of fishing vessels in those waters every night of any given week, I find it hard to believe that someone (quite a few 'someones' in fact) didn't se or hear something if the aircraft crashed in the immediate area.

I would imagine that part of the SAR effort would be patrol boats going from fishing boat to fishing boat - (and I'm not exaggerating when I say that that could take *** weeks, if not months) - asking if the fishermen saw or heard anything unusual on the night in question.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 01:02
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On the freefall time, the 3+ minute estimate is a bit off.

s=ut + 0.5at^2, assuming an initial vertical velocity of 0, and initial height s=8000m (I can't be bothered to convert 35,000' to m), would be around 40s.
40s accelerating at 10 ms^-2 is a final velocity of 400 ms^-1. Terminal velocities are typically less than 100 ms^-1.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 01:05
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It is definitely in the fishermans favour to collect anything they find, I read in the last couple of days about a previous crash where a fisherman found what he thought was a piece of plywood that turned out to be part of a tail from a similar crash in the 90s.

Boeing rewarded the fisherman by paying him $5250 for handing it in.
Having spent a good portion of my life in countries where people live a hand to mouth existence, I have witnessed many times the looting which occurs after a tragedy. It's sad that some people live in conditions where an airplane crash represents the opportunity of a lifetime, but it's true for a large part of the world's population.

From what I've read here, the area is filled with small fishing boats, and my opinion is that no one would report a crash before scavenging whatever debris was left on the surface.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 01:05
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Evey Hammond, I just got a price for a non-stop flight Kuala Lumpur to Amsterdam on a Malaysia 777, departing 11;59 PM on March 15 : $780.

So why fly via Beijing? At a higher price?
To avoid the requirement for a Chinese visa. If using a stolen passport the traveler is unlikely to want to drop it off at the local Chinese Embassy for 24-48 hours then return to collect it in case they check its legitimacy. As noted earlier if transiting China for up to 72 hrs you don't need a China Visa.

Question is, were these miscreants anything to do with the disappearance of MH370? Or were they just criminals looking to obfuscate anyone trying to track them?

Hell, it could have been a couple of Jason Bourne types...
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 01:11
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For Reference, example of debris from Swissair111- crashed at full power.

Source: https://twitter.com/search?q=mh370%2...ah&mode=photos
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 01:14
  #1088 (permalink)  
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RE HARMONIC VIBRATIONS

mseyfang POSTULATED that perhaps some sort of flutter issue may have led to instant disintigration.

Theoretically possible- but not probable.

Flutter testing is standard in the industry, and FBW can automatically reduce such possibilities. helicopters are a different animal.

One known case of disintegration re flutter/harmonics of as fixed wing is the early Lockheed electra- several were lost. After finding out what really happened, the related problem was fixed- and a few dozen/hundred are still flying after 40 50 years - they afre called navy P-3.

The onset was due to a faulty engine mount design which came loose after hard landings. This allowed the turboprop engine- turbine to go into a whirl mode ( via gyroscopic action) at what was the natural frequency of the wing. In a few seconds, the wing ( VERY STIFF ) disintegrated.

That was in the late 50's as I recall.

AS to 777 - not impossible - but IMHO VERY unlikely !!

Simply too much redundancy and a flexible wing.

And NO its NOT like galloping gertie issues...
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 01:20
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An environment filled with active fishing boats in relatively shallow (<100m)
water sounds to me like a nightmare environment for any type of sound detection.
Just because the noise clutter from these ship is principally at lower frequencies does not mean the higher frequencies are clear. Rather there is a comprehensive fog of noise that blurs everything.
Imho, they cannot locate anything using the pingers on the ELTs unless they are really close, within a few miles at most, so finding debris visually is an essential prerequisite to knowing where to look. The range could be increased if the authorities can enforce a fishing holiday, but that would be unprecedented afaik.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 01:51
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Pointless post but can't resist speaking my mind and I'm sure many professionals here are equally puzzled as to how come the debris field is still not found. Considering the number of assets, very crowded waters, commercial sea traffic there are surely on the look out. Based on the last known location on radar, the aircraft couldn't have done a number that defies conventional wisdom and logic. "looking at the wrong area" might be the only explanation now but we are talking about many experienced Navies here.
It's truly bizarre.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 01:54
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It's only 3 or 4 degrees north, so I would assume someone's intelligence agency has a satellite parked on geostationary orbit over the area looking for unusual congregations of anything. When they find it, they won't announce it publicly, but it will be quickly investigated by surface and air assets.

Last edited by thcrozier; 10th Mar 2014 at 04:57.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 01:57
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Aterpster, it was not long after the Qantas A380, nearly another terrible statistic, dropped her engine parts onto the country below, that some turned up on ebay. You cannot blame people who have nothing, from trying to get a dollar, can you, not at all.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 02:01
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Originally Posted by Coagie
YRP, People like you have to have facts spoon fed to you. Won't this make you fall prey to propaganda? I could spend a time finding the reference from a while ago, but if you're wondering, why not look yourself? I poured over thousands of facts about AF447, over the last 5 years, and if I happen to dig it up, I'll let you know. Maybe someone else remembers the French having to review the sonar tapes? It wasn't a secret, but since it was such a big mistake, they didn't exactly shout it from the treetops!
Coagie, there is a big difference between not knowing what signal they were looking for vs reviewing the tapes afterwards to glean more information.

Anything real time is never going to be as thorough as throwing some bright engineers, time, and decent computing power at the problem. Give them some months to try out whatever clever signal processor techniques they can think of (and experiment through trial and error) and just maybe they can find a signal previously masked by noise, distortion, etc.

That is not a screw up, rather it is following up every possibility.

If you are ignorant of communications engineering (which is ultimately what signal detection is), easy to say they screwed it up the first time...
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 02:01
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First confirmation I've seen that the bearers of the stolen passports were Asian in appearance:

Missing Malaysian jet may have disintegrated in mid-air: source
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 02:03
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thcrozier, the most sensible blog of the day, so far. A Satellite, of course.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 02:06
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From earlier reports on here there appear to be many assets out there. I have no doubt they are all very busy. But with nothing found at this late stage, they MUST ALL have been looking in the wrong place (or, and this doesn't bear thinking about) someone's search has been compromised.

From a SAR standpoint, is there ONE AGENCY in overall command and control? If you're about to say yes, think very carefully about the question. There are very great difficulties with this particular SAR effort and more so than with any other I have known. It is not only multi-national but the forces also cross ideological divides. Trying to coordinate different forces from ONE nation can be fraught with difficulties, but in this case, in addition to coordinating egos, forces from many nations bring different priorities, manifestos and other differences. The whole operation risks being thwarted by inability and unwillingness to fall in line.

The effort in theory is relatively simple: Construct a grid based on a variety of last known positions, CAREFULLY calculated forward throw ballistics, etc, etc. Then, "You, you and you look HERE... and you lot and you look THERE." etc, etc. With creeping line ahead and expanding square search patterns sweeping into the less plausible grid squares, something must be found soon given a sufficiently large number of suitably-employed assets. And whoever finds something first becomes Scene of Action Commander. Because time has gone by and we're now into replacement of search personnel, a team is needed to compile and maintain a roster. Diplomatic effort, particularly, is needed here to smooth the way for effective command, control and communications. Without a competent central command centre, everyone will continue to rush around like headless chickens.

Sure, under the status quo, eventually, something will be found. It could be better than this.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 02:08
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first confirmation I've seen that the bearers of the stolen passports were Asian in appearance:
when he refers to this morning... is that now today as in 10th march?

so means no debris found...
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 02:13
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>>>If vertical to surface below in a dive the wings would have stayed attached ... it is indeed probable in this theory that the wings are beneath the water ... Due to the energy and shallow water they could be buried in the mud?<<<

I posted to this possibility many pages back. More than a possibility, perhaps.
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 02:14
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Technical data

Hi all,

Just curious, in the case of AF 447 the first clues was technical data the plane sent automatically...

Any info about similar data stream from the missing plane?
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Old 10th Mar 2014, 02:15
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Interpol say "I told you so" and suggest link between passports and cause of tragedy.

Interpol sounds alarm on passenger checks - FT.com

"In a stinging criticism issued on Sunday, Interpol said both passports had been added to its Stolen and Lost Travel Documents database almost immediately after they were reported missing in 2012 and 2013, respectively. "

“This is a situation we had hoped never to see. For years Interpol has asked why should countries wait for a tragedy to put prudent security measures in place at borders and boarding gates,” said Ronald Noble, Interpol’s secretary-general.

So the secretary general of interpol is claiming a direct connection between the two passengers and the cause of the tragedy?


Report also says that UK and the US make most use of the Interpol passport database and one billion passengers travelled last year "without passports being checked".
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