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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 9th Mar 2014, 20:46
  #1001 (permalink)  
 
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Strong Jetstream at 10,800 metres

The weather was said to be good for the flight but at 35,000' was it possible the Jetstream was causing severe turbulence on the flight?

I cannot find a historic Jetstream map, but by reversing the time using the following link to 0.00 hours and assuming the trend continued since the early hours of March 8th then there appears the Jetstream was strong at the time.

Weather Model - Asia Jet Stream Wind and 250 mb Pressure (STORMSURF)

Maybe there was severe turbulence early into the flight once it reached its cruising altitude which seems to correspond to the strongest part of the jetstream (if I am reading this right)

Apologies if I am way off, but I at least have read this entire thread before dipping my toe in.
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Old 9th Mar 2014, 20:47
  #1002 (permalink)  
 
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AVHerald writes that some flotsam apparently made from composite has been located and will hopefully be recovered at local dawn (in 2-3 hours).


If it can be shown to belong to a 777, the probability for a crash instead of an unexplained disappearance becomes rather high and the area for further search can be narrowed down a little bit.
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Old 9th Mar 2014, 20:56
  #1003 (permalink)  
 
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No sign of a seismic event over 4 on the Richter scale in the South China Sea for the day in question:-


Seismic Monitor (Monitor Sísmico) - The Latest Earthquakes in the Indian Ocean Region


I would have thought the engines hitting the seabed would have registered.
I was pondering the same thing, went researching, returned here and found that post. My research dug up this article about seismology and aircraft crashes:

http://www.ctbto.org/fileadmin/conte...ctrum_2/p1.pdf


It makes specific mention of Lockerbie, and Swissair. It does say that such events are typically equivalent to magnitude 2 or smaller though. It'll be interesting to see whether this incident will have left any seismological clues...
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Old 9th Mar 2014, 20:58
  #1004 (permalink)  
 
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Floating Object - Dead End

By Jim Clancy and Mark Morgenstein, CNN updated 3:19 PM EDT, Sun March 9, 2014.

One promising lead has turned out to be a dead end. A "strange object" spotted by a Singaporean search plane late Sunday afternoon is not debris from the missing jetliner, a U.S. official familiar with the issue told CNN on Sunday.
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Old 9th Mar 2014, 21:01
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F/As can get in.
Not on the Helios 737-300 I am afraid. The aircraft crashed after running out of fuel. Passengers were alive and making calls during the infinite holdings.
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Old 9th Mar 2014, 21:03
  #1006 (permalink)  
 
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"There is an emergency code for access to the flight deck in case of both pilot incapacitation."
Yes, but if someone has gained control of the flight deck and knows what switch to toggle, that access is denied. It is just one position.

Looking around the internet tonight there are some fascinating, wild theories that sadly the longer the time to find the aircraft is, the slightly more believable they could be. The trouble is nowadays with governments, one doesn't always know what to believe and even stopped clocks can be right at times.

At the moment one shouldn't assume official intervention is the reason for delay when incompetence or just plain bad luck is the reason. Although as TWA800 and elements surrounding September 11 show, many people articulate reasoned counterpoints to the officially stated narratives. The real reasons? Way out of my league and knowledge just like most posters here.
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Old 9th Mar 2014, 21:04
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What's wrong with calling it a ap rudder channel.
Don't know, ask Mr Boeing, I only fly the things...

Does that mean it'll keep it straight in the event of an engine failure? Or just provide assistance
It provides significant assistance, whilst leaving the pilot(s) to do some of the foot work and any required trimming.

The bus will keep straight until alpha prot, then ap disconnect and a descent.
Excellent.....

Any triple drivers?
Err, Hello, .....or do you want another triple driver
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Old 9th Mar 2014, 21:06
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ACARS

The most useful piece of evidence is possibly the ACARS DATA. Why have we seen nothing of the ACARS info

For those that dont know what ACARS is - (ACARS) is a digital datalink system for transmission of short, relatively simple messages between aircraft and ground stations via radio or satellite.
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Old 9th Mar 2014, 21:07
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Wrong. First confirmed aircraft pieces (multiple pieces with seats, larger parts, etc. plus oil slick) spotted on June 2.
That statement is wrong. These sightings were east of the track and south of the Last Known Position There were suggestions on PPRuNe that AF447 had turned around and was trying to land near the islands of the Arquipélago de São Pedro e São Paulo, off the coast of Brazil. These sightings turned out to be false; they had the effect of diverting SAR resources away from the actual crash location, which turned out to be a bit northwest of the track.
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Old 9th Mar 2014, 21:11
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Is it within the realm of possibility to have severe clear air turbulence, combined with a structural issue with the repaired wing, and it just flat broke?
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Old 9th Mar 2014, 21:26
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Question MH370 may have turned back

Malaysia’s air force chief, Rodzali Daud, said radar indicated that the plane may have turned back, but did not give further details on which direction it went or how far it veered off course. (Source: National Post)

Air force chief Rodzali Daud said the investigation was now focusing on a recording of radar signals that showed there was a "possibility" the aircraft had turned back from its flight path. (Source: bbc.co.uk)

Is it not possible that an inflight disintegration may cause what seems to be a significant course change on a set of radar signals, due to parts of the aircraft falling in different directions?

I posted this question earlier - but no replies - was it really that dumb a question? I'm sure I've seen even less informed! Would appreciate a reply even a 'don't be daft Dumbo Jumbo!'
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Old 9th Mar 2014, 21:31
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My initial thought when I heard of this accident was of Lauda Air 004 which had an in-flight deployment of a thrust reverser almost twenty three ago. The initial speculation was that it was a bomb. I hope that the recorders are found soon and that the speculation comes to an end.
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Old 9th Mar 2014, 21:36
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ACARS

@1a sound asleep
The most useful piece of evidence is possibly the ACARS DATA. Why have we seen nothing of the ACARS info

For those that dont know what ACARS is - (ACARS) is a digital datalink system for transmission of short, relatively simple messages between aircraft and ground stations via radio or satellite.
Unfortunately I am unable to provide you a link, however it has been reported here and other forums that the Malaysian Civil Aviation General confirmed during a press conference that no ACARS message linking to malfunctions of the aircraft were sent to Malaysia Airlines Operations Centre.

It is unclear whether the ACARS downlink transmission suddenly stopped, as I am led to conclude based on this report, or not. MA and Malaysia authorities are being pretty tight lipped so far.

Based on this sparse information, I conclude that the ACARS downlink feed from the aircraft completely stopped at some point, which is consistent with the sudden disappearance of the aircraft at 35,000 feet right after changing its track from 25° to 40°.

As incredible as it may seem, after more than 48 hours the only valuable information we have so far come from flightradar24. Unfortunately, FR24 has no coverage below 30,000 over the ocean.
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Old 9th Mar 2014, 21:46
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Having finally got to the end of the thread, another bit of data of dubious relevance.

I was part of the crew of one of the recovery helicopters at Lockerbie. The debris trail was 70 miles long, and notwithstanding that we knew where to start, bits were obvious all along it. I'm fairly sure that even crossing it at right angles, we would have picked it up in about one leg in three of a creeping line search. I've done a lot of searches over water, and looking for sunken ships that were actually sunk more-or-less where someone thought did tend to reveal debris fairly quickly.

So, if the search is anywhere near the right place, I would expect an in-flight disintegration at altitude to lead to discovery of wreckage / debris in fairly short order.
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Old 9th Mar 2014, 21:48
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Comms breakers

What if someone (pilots or terrorists) pulled the comms breakers? In an area with poor or no primary radar coverage, the area of possible landing/crashing/ditching is quite large.
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Old 9th Mar 2014, 21:52
  #1016 (permalink)  
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Coagie,
I just looked up 40kHz in the Radio Regs, it is allocated to fixed maritime mobile - they would not be putting a distress beacon in that band without guard channels. Also, a google search reveals a circuit diagram which has a loudspeaker symbol as the "final bit" and not an aerial symbol, so my apologies, you are correct. Must google before posting for things I am not familiar with!
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Old 9th Mar 2014, 21:55
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Your Attention, Please

A Triple 7 is down. Or, presumably down. Maybe plausible is an air piracy and commandeering incident (after the World Trade Center, Pentagon and Shanksville PA, I decline to use the "h-j" word in this context). But if the plane landed safely someone - a lot of someones - are committed to some serious radio silence.

I start with the above modestly-pedestrian observation as a prelude to a sort of "point of order". The event is way, way high in profile (obviously) - meaning that lots of posters are drawn into the stream, not only because of the very significant Civil Aeronautics Authority-level of interest, and not only because of the intensifying SUSPENSE, but also because ... we like puzzles, mysteries. We just do.

And my point? I'm not justifying or clawing back at any one or any posts or certainly any Moderator. I'm advocating a modicum of restraint. If you are a wind-tunnel designing, computational dynamics and boundary layer equation semi-genius, and some guy posts something tongue in cheek, or wildly speculative, or a tad factually erroneous, or repetitive to prior posts, or otherwise unenlightened post, just shrug it off. This air crash ("if", see above) is likely to become quite historic. Let the thread flail and wail and hang-and-look over Wichita in a prototype YF-17 with 1974-era avionics, if it wants to do so.

And if you, on the other hand, are like me, a sub-sub to a wrench-turner's mate hard, hard below the conn aboard the Michigan, and have no idea how to recover from a spin, STHU [Shut The Hotel Up] (just jokin' about the USS Michigan part).

If it was a crash, may the airman's prayer to the Almighty, that the souls of the dead find peace, and more so the next of kin - be allowed some pace and place hereto, here too. Lord Wingspan Almighty, the Maker of All Lift, aeronautical, peace-loving... and at the bar (which is where yours truly usually ends up).
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Old 9th Mar 2014, 22:03
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I just looked up 40kHz in the Radio Regs, it is allocated to fixed maritime mobile
Please don't confuse the radio spectrum with the audio spectrum. In the context of the pingers, the frequency of 40kHz is ultra-sound.
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Old 9th Mar 2014, 22:10
  #1019 (permalink)  


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Mid Air?
Unannounced / unidentified military activity is not unheard of in this area.
For an established proven commercial aircraft to completely disappear without any indication, points to some sort of catastrophic instantaneous failure/ breakup.
That would indicate explosive, structural or midair.
Beyond that we just cant say.
Some of the drivel spouted here would be quite humorous if the situation was not so tragic.
The media frenzy of speculation, theories and fantasy is thoroughly distasteful but sadly a reflection on humanity (or rather lack of it)
I'm sure all will out eventually.
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Old 9th Mar 2014, 22:16
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A one tonne basketball and a normal basketball of same volume dropped in atmosphere won't hit the ground at the same time.
IF they're the same size and shape they abolutely will.
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