Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
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Strong Jetstream at 10,800 metres
The weather was said to be good for the flight but at 35,000' was it possible the Jetstream was causing severe turbulence on the flight?
I cannot find a historic Jetstream map, but by reversing the time using the following link to 0.00 hours and assuming the trend continued since the early hours of March 8th then there appears the Jetstream was strong at the time.
Weather Model - Asia Jet Stream Wind and 250 mb Pressure (STORMSURF)
Maybe there was severe turbulence early into the flight once it reached its cruising altitude which seems to correspond to the strongest part of the jetstream (if I am reading this right)
Apologies if I am way off, but I at least have read this entire thread before dipping my toe in.
I cannot find a historic Jetstream map, but by reversing the time using the following link to 0.00 hours and assuming the trend continued since the early hours of March 8th then there appears the Jetstream was strong at the time.
Weather Model - Asia Jet Stream Wind and 250 mb Pressure (STORMSURF)
Maybe there was severe turbulence early into the flight once it reached its cruising altitude which seems to correspond to the strongest part of the jetstream (if I am reading this right)
Apologies if I am way off, but I at least have read this entire thread before dipping my toe in.
AVHerald writes that some flotsam apparently made from composite has been located and will hopefully be recovered at local dawn (in 2-3 hours).
If it can be shown to belong to a 777, the probability for a crash instead of an unexplained disappearance becomes rather high and the area for further search can be narrowed down a little bit.
If it can be shown to belong to a 777, the probability for a crash instead of an unexplained disappearance becomes rather high and the area for further search can be narrowed down a little bit.
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No sign of a seismic event over 4 on the Richter scale in the South China Sea for the day in question:-
Seismic Monitor (Monitor Sísmico) - The Latest Earthquakes in the Indian Ocean Region
I would have thought the engines hitting the seabed would have registered.
Seismic Monitor (Monitor Sísmico) - The Latest Earthquakes in the Indian Ocean Region
I would have thought the engines hitting the seabed would have registered.
http://www.ctbto.org/fileadmin/conte...ctrum_2/p1.pdf
It makes specific mention of Lockerbie, and Swissair. It does say that such events are typically equivalent to magnitude 2 or smaller though. It'll be interesting to see whether this incident will have left any seismological clues...
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Floating Object - Dead End
By Jim Clancy and Mark Morgenstein, CNN updated 3:19 PM EDT, Sun March 9, 2014.
One promising lead has turned out to be a dead end. A "strange object" spotted by a Singaporean search plane late Sunday afternoon is not debris from the missing jetliner, a U.S. official familiar with the issue told CNN on Sunday.
One promising lead has turned out to be a dead end. A "strange object" spotted by a Singaporean search plane late Sunday afternoon is not debris from the missing jetliner, a U.S. official familiar with the issue told CNN on Sunday.
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F/As can get in.
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"There is an emergency code for access to the flight deck in case of both pilot incapacitation."
Yes, but if someone has gained control of the flight deck and knows what switch to toggle, that access is denied. It is just one position.
Looking around the internet tonight there are some fascinating, wild theories that sadly the longer the time to find the aircraft is, the slightly more believable they could be. The trouble is nowadays with governments, one doesn't always know what to believe and even stopped clocks can be right at times.
At the moment one shouldn't assume official intervention is the reason for delay when incompetence or just plain bad luck is the reason. Although as TWA800 and elements surrounding September 11 show, many people articulate reasoned counterpoints to the officially stated narratives. The real reasons? Way out of my league and knowledge just like most posters here.
Yes, but if someone has gained control of the flight deck and knows what switch to toggle, that access is denied. It is just one position.
Looking around the internet tonight there are some fascinating, wild theories that sadly the longer the time to find the aircraft is, the slightly more believable they could be. The trouble is nowadays with governments, one doesn't always know what to believe and even stopped clocks can be right at times.
At the moment one shouldn't assume official intervention is the reason for delay when incompetence or just plain bad luck is the reason. Although as TWA800 and elements surrounding September 11 show, many people articulate reasoned counterpoints to the officially stated narratives. The real reasons? Way out of my league and knowledge just like most posters here.
What's wrong with calling it a ap rudder channel.
Does that mean it'll keep it straight in the event of an engine failure? Or just provide assistance
The bus will keep straight until alpha prot, then ap disconnect and a descent.
Any triple drivers?
ACARS
The most useful piece of evidence is possibly the ACARS DATA. Why have we seen nothing of the ACARS info
For those that dont know what ACARS is - (ACARS) is a digital datalink system for transmission of short, relatively simple messages between aircraft and ground stations via radio or satellite.
For those that dont know what ACARS is - (ACARS) is a digital datalink system for transmission of short, relatively simple messages between aircraft and ground stations via radio or satellite.
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Wrong. First confirmed aircraft pieces (multiple pieces with seats, larger parts, etc. plus oil slick) spotted on June 2.
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MH370 may have turned back
Malaysia’s air force chief, Rodzali Daud, said radar indicated that the plane may have turned back, but did not give further details on which direction it went or how far it veered off course. (Source: National Post)
Air force chief Rodzali Daud said the investigation was now focusing on a recording of radar signals that showed there was a "possibility" the aircraft had turned back from its flight path. (Source: bbc.co.uk)
Is it not possible that an inflight disintegration may cause what seems to be a significant course change on a set of radar signals, due to parts of the aircraft falling in different directions?
I posted this question earlier - but no replies - was it really that dumb a question? I'm sure I've seen even less informed! Would appreciate a reply even a 'don't be daft Dumbo Jumbo!'
Air force chief Rodzali Daud said the investigation was now focusing on a recording of radar signals that showed there was a "possibility" the aircraft had turned back from its flight path. (Source: bbc.co.uk)
Is it not possible that an inflight disintegration may cause what seems to be a significant course change on a set of radar signals, due to parts of the aircraft falling in different directions?
I posted this question earlier - but no replies - was it really that dumb a question? I'm sure I've seen even less informed! Would appreciate a reply even a 'don't be daft Dumbo Jumbo!'
My initial thought when I heard of this accident was of Lauda Air 004 which had an in-flight deployment of a thrust reverser almost twenty three ago. The initial speculation was that it was a bomb. I hope that the recorders are found soon and that the speculation comes to an end.
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ACARS
@1a sound asleep
Unfortunately I am unable to provide you a link, however it has been reported here and other forums that the Malaysian Civil Aviation General confirmed during a press conference that no ACARS message linking to malfunctions of the aircraft were sent to Malaysia Airlines Operations Centre.
It is unclear whether the ACARS downlink transmission suddenly stopped, as I am led to conclude based on this report, or not. MA and Malaysia authorities are being pretty tight lipped so far.
Based on this sparse information, I conclude that the ACARS downlink feed from the aircraft completely stopped at some point, which is consistent with the sudden disappearance of the aircraft at 35,000 feet right after changing its track from 25° to 40°.
As incredible as it may seem, after more than 48 hours the only valuable information we have so far come from flightradar24. Unfortunately, FR24 has no coverage below 30,000 over the ocean.
The most useful piece of evidence is possibly the ACARS DATA. Why have we seen nothing of the ACARS info
For those that dont know what ACARS is - (ACARS) is a digital datalink system for transmission of short, relatively simple messages between aircraft and ground stations via radio or satellite.
For those that dont know what ACARS is - (ACARS) is a digital datalink system for transmission of short, relatively simple messages between aircraft and ground stations via radio or satellite.
It is unclear whether the ACARS downlink transmission suddenly stopped, as I am led to conclude based on this report, or not. MA and Malaysia authorities are being pretty tight lipped so far.
Based on this sparse information, I conclude that the ACARS downlink feed from the aircraft completely stopped at some point, which is consistent with the sudden disappearance of the aircraft at 35,000 feet right after changing its track from 25° to 40°.
As incredible as it may seem, after more than 48 hours the only valuable information we have so far come from flightradar24. Unfortunately, FR24 has no coverage below 30,000 over the ocean.
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Having finally got to the end of the thread, another bit of data of dubious relevance.
I was part of the crew of one of the recovery helicopters at Lockerbie. The debris trail was 70 miles long, and notwithstanding that we knew where to start, bits were obvious all along it. I'm fairly sure that even crossing it at right angles, we would have picked it up in about one leg in three of a creeping line search. I've done a lot of searches over water, and looking for sunken ships that were actually sunk more-or-less where someone thought did tend to reveal debris fairly quickly.
So, if the search is anywhere near the right place, I would expect an in-flight disintegration at altitude to lead to discovery of wreckage / debris in fairly short order.
I was part of the crew of one of the recovery helicopters at Lockerbie. The debris trail was 70 miles long, and notwithstanding that we knew where to start, bits were obvious all along it. I'm fairly sure that even crossing it at right angles, we would have picked it up in about one leg in three of a creeping line search. I've done a lot of searches over water, and looking for sunken ships that were actually sunk more-or-less where someone thought did tend to reveal debris fairly quickly.
So, if the search is anywhere near the right place, I would expect an in-flight disintegration at altitude to lead to discovery of wreckage / debris in fairly short order.
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Comms breakers
What if someone (pilots or terrorists) pulled the comms breakers? In an area with poor or no primary radar coverage, the area of possible landing/crashing/ditching is quite large.
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Coagie,
I just looked up 40kHz in the Radio Regs, it is allocated to fixed maritime mobile - they would not be putting a distress beacon in that band without guard channels. Also, a google search reveals a circuit diagram which has a loudspeaker symbol as the "final bit" and not an aerial symbol, so my apologies, you are correct. Must google before posting for things I am not familiar with!
I just looked up 40kHz in the Radio Regs, it is allocated to fixed maritime mobile - they would not be putting a distress beacon in that band without guard channels. Also, a google search reveals a circuit diagram which has a loudspeaker symbol as the "final bit" and not an aerial symbol, so my apologies, you are correct. Must google before posting for things I am not familiar with!
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Your Attention, Please
A Triple 7 is down. Or, presumably down. Maybe plausible is an air piracy and commandeering incident (after the World Trade Center, Pentagon and Shanksville PA, I decline to use the "h-j" word in this context). But if the plane landed safely someone - a lot of someones - are committed to some serious radio silence.
I start with the above modestly-pedestrian observation as a prelude to a sort of "point of order". The event is way, way high in profile (obviously) - meaning that lots of posters are drawn into the stream, not only because of the very significant Civil Aeronautics Authority-level of interest, and not only because of the intensifying SUSPENSE, but also because ... we like puzzles, mysteries. We just do.
And my point? I'm not justifying or clawing back at any one or any posts or certainly any Moderator. I'm advocating a modicum of restraint. If you are a wind-tunnel designing, computational dynamics and boundary layer equation semi-genius, and some guy posts something tongue in cheek, or wildly speculative, or a tad factually erroneous, or repetitive to prior posts, or otherwise unenlightened post, just shrug it off. This air crash ("if", see above) is likely to become quite historic. Let the thread flail and wail and hang-and-look over Wichita in a prototype YF-17 with 1974-era avionics, if it wants to do so.
And if you, on the other hand, are like me, a sub-sub to a wrench-turner's mate hard, hard below the conn aboard the Michigan, and have no idea how to recover from a spin, STHU [Shut The Hotel Up] (just jokin' about the USS Michigan part).
If it was a crash, may the airman's prayer to the Almighty, that the souls of the dead find peace, and more so the next of kin - be allowed some pace and place hereto, here too. Lord Wingspan Almighty, the Maker of All Lift, aeronautical, peace-loving... and at the bar (which is where yours truly usually ends up).
I start with the above modestly-pedestrian observation as a prelude to a sort of "point of order". The event is way, way high in profile (obviously) - meaning that lots of posters are drawn into the stream, not only because of the very significant Civil Aeronautics Authority-level of interest, and not only because of the intensifying SUSPENSE, but also because ... we like puzzles, mysteries. We just do.
And my point? I'm not justifying or clawing back at any one or any posts or certainly any Moderator. I'm advocating a modicum of restraint. If you are a wind-tunnel designing, computational dynamics and boundary layer equation semi-genius, and some guy posts something tongue in cheek, or wildly speculative, or a tad factually erroneous, or repetitive to prior posts, or otherwise unenlightened post, just shrug it off. This air crash ("if", see above) is likely to become quite historic. Let the thread flail and wail and hang-and-look over Wichita in a prototype YF-17 with 1974-era avionics, if it wants to do so.
And if you, on the other hand, are like me, a sub-sub to a wrench-turner's mate hard, hard below the conn aboard the Michigan, and have no idea how to recover from a spin, STHU [Shut The Hotel Up] (just jokin' about the USS Michigan part).
If it was a crash, may the airman's prayer to the Almighty, that the souls of the dead find peace, and more so the next of kin - be allowed some pace and place hereto, here too. Lord Wingspan Almighty, the Maker of All Lift, aeronautical, peace-loving... and at the bar (which is where yours truly usually ends up).
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I just looked up 40kHz in the Radio Regs, it is allocated to fixed maritime mobile
Mmmmm PPruuune!
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Mid Air?
Unannounced / unidentified military activity is not unheard of in this area.
For an established proven commercial aircraft to completely disappear without any indication, points to some sort of catastrophic instantaneous failure/ breakup.
That would indicate explosive, structural or midair.
Beyond that we just cant say.
Some of the drivel spouted here would be quite humorous if the situation was not so tragic.
The media frenzy of speculation, theories and fantasy is thoroughly distasteful but sadly a reflection on humanity (or rather lack of it)
I'm sure all will out eventually.
Unannounced / unidentified military activity is not unheard of in this area.
For an established proven commercial aircraft to completely disappear without any indication, points to some sort of catastrophic instantaneous failure/ breakup.
That would indicate explosive, structural or midair.
Beyond that we just cant say.
Some of the drivel spouted here would be quite humorous if the situation was not so tragic.
The media frenzy of speculation, theories and fantasy is thoroughly distasteful but sadly a reflection on humanity (or rather lack of it)
I'm sure all will out eventually.
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A one tonne basketball and a normal basketball of same volume dropped in atmosphere won't hit the ground at the same time.
