The aircraft flew into the Southern section of the Indian Ocean until it ran out of motion lotion, that much seems to be the most likely scenario at this point - until further fact-backed info comes to hand.
Why else are there 5 Orions and a Poseidon searching that area as from tomorrow, local time? It's because nearly everything points to that spot.
Thus we can believe with a reasonable degree of certainty, that the aircraft was still fully flyable until the end. That puts a fire right out of the ball park.
Whether the aircraft flew on AP until it dropped out of the sky as part of a plan - or whether it did a Helios, we will only know when the wreckage is found.
I'm not normally a betting man, but I'll wager there's a very good chance some wreckage will be found in the next week or two.
One thing in favour of a recovery from the Indian Ocean is the area is deep enough for subs to operate, unlike the Gulf of Thailand.
As regards the military interception capabilities - you can spend $100B on the finest military equipment the U.S. or Russia or China can provide - but it's only as good as the abilities and motivation of the guys driving it.
In the case of numerous SE Asian countries, those abilities and motivation are currently lacking - and the reason being, there's no real elevated tensions or major military threats in the region.
A few riots and demonstrations in Thailand are just part of the run-of-the-mill life for these people.
Crony capitalism and nepotism rules, pay the bribes, get on with life. No-one's currently looking to invade anyone elses country.
A little skirmish or two over the Spratleys is no reason for Thailand, Malaysia or even Vietnam to be on full invasion alert.
As far as the Captain and FO go, I'll also lay some money we'll end up finding out these guys were heroes, not baddies.
Last edited by onetrack; 18th Mar 2014 at 15:16.