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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 18th Mar 2014, 14:59
  #5641 (permalink)  
 
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Of course, the correct action for an individual in these circumstances would have been to contact the captain ( a drilling rig is a vessel, even though it is mostly anchored) and let him contact the appropriate SAR authority.
My understanding was that he emailed management in the company for which he works? If he'd told the 'captain' and had his story dismissed, this seems a reasonable course of action to me.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:04
  #5642 (permalink)  
 
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Correct practice maybe.India four two.but if it turned out that he had reported it and the report dismissed as it will cause us too much trouble and he still considered it correct what else was he to do.
How would suppressing it help the search. I think about the same as Indonesia refusing acccess to the search planes. (I am sure the US would have done the same though)
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:06
  #5643 (permalink)  
 
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@mrbigbird

I have seen reports that claim the last two pings were at the same location which some suggested could mean it was on the ground.

Given that 59 minutes could have elapsed after landing before that second last pin the plane could actually have been on the ground for 2hrs 59 minutes.
So if the above is true re. pings and if they landed, then they landed between the 3rd and 2nd last ping. Take the arc and go backwards along the line of pings with an average speed based on time contact lost minus time of last ping?

Last edited by dicks-airbus; 18th Mar 2014 at 15:17.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:07
  #5644 (permalink)  
 
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I'm a little puzzled by the Chinese statement that they've 'cleared' all the Chinese pax.

From NY Times:
ďChina has conducted a thorough investigation, and to date we have not found any signs that any passengers on board the plane participated in destruction or terror attacks,Ē Mr. Huang said at a news briefing in Kuala Lumpur for Chinese reporters, according to a summary on the website of the state-run Peopleís Daily newspaper.
Wasn't there one passenger travelling on a Chinese passport, where the passport owner was alive and well and had never lost or mislaid his passport? So do the Chinese government know who that passenger really was, in order to absolve him from suspicion?
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:11
  #5645 (permalink)  
 
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fire in tbe wheel well

Not plausible to me that it would burn through the pressure hull to get to the innards without somebody noticing. But I'm not an expert. ;-)
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:12
  #5646 (permalink)  
 
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Could someone with mapping software plot the mirror image on the Northern Arc of the current declared search area on the southern arc
.

From my understanding "mirror" means just that. The geometrical problem is symmetrical to the axis satellite<->LKP (from primary radar). Whatever information from previous pings there is, it remains symmetrical.

The southern ocean option probably takes the "flying dutchman" scenario into account, i.e the only conceivable reason why it would be there, is because it flew on a/p until fuel exhaustion.

The designated search area is where max range and ping arc intersect, i.e on the extreme end of the arc. Mirrored to the northern arc that would be in the Caspian Sea or maybe a little earlier due to jetstream? On the northern arc the "flying dutchman" isn't the only option, so it may not have gone in a straight line / great circle.

Thinking about it: If the FMC was in HDG mode the trajectory on the northern branch would have a different shape than on the southern branch. On the norther branch the trajectory would bend away from the center on the southern branch it would bend to the center. Stand to be corrected.

Last edited by OleOle; 18th Mar 2014 at 15:37. Reason: clarify lkp
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:17
  #5647 (permalink)  
 
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Obidiah post #5709 ...can be associated with practical logic, because normal, average reasonable people can one day be overcome with life's challenges, snap, and come off the rails. ...Just as Eqypt Air 990, LAM 470, Silk Air 185, and Ethiopean 702 just last month when the copilot had locked out the captain over Egypt and hijacked himself to Geneva.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:18
  #5648 (permalink)  
 
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Nobody is using hypothetical scenarios to define why to search any area. They are using last known position. Simple as that.

The last known position is anywhere along the north and south corridors.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:19
  #5649 (permalink)  
 
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Hogger60

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Quote:
This guy has come up with a very plausible theory. That is pending that TCAS is based on transponder data which I believe it is?

Shadow plane theory
The formation flying theory just doesn't hold water. This guy's theory is based on finding the SQ flight using TCAS, and then catching the other aircraft and shadowing it. But in the 777 when you turn on the TCAS, you turn on the transponder and ATC will now have a primary return. TCAS and the transponder are integrated. You can't use TCAS alone.
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You can join up without TCAS.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:23
  #5650 (permalink)  
 
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If there was a Wheel Fire in the main Wheel Well they would get a EICAS Fire Wheel Well Warning and they would have followed the QRH procedure and then declared a Pan or Mayday as required. This would certainly NOT include climbing to FL450 to put out the Fire!!!
( the QRH from memory says to slow below MLO .82/270kias and extend the gear, if the warning continues LAND ASAP. )

Nitpicker 330 ref your post ~5554 above, why are you dismissing a wheel well fire with such ease. The T7 was heavy and with high relative humidity at KL that night the take-off run would have been long. A deflated tyre may have been detected and if a fire developed in the wheel well EIDAS would have reported that as you correctly point out, however letís assume they were working through the QRH when events overtook the crew. Any fire especially an electrical fire would be extremely serious and they may have pulled all the main busses while working through the QRH and were restoring electrical circuits in an attempt to identify the bad circuit. Such an action would of course disable the comms including the transponder; however the priority must be to identify and isolate the fire. Even in the worst case the vital bus however would still be good containing the radio including 121.5

A sequence of events took place that resulted in the crew making a standard left turn after the coms bus was disabled. This action is consistent isnít it of the crew looking to regain the reciprocal track or at the very least turning off airway. At the same time they would be working through the QRH while trying to get below MLO when events overtook them.

The SAA 747 that was lost over the Indian Ocean was due to a fire in the combi cargo compartment. They eventually recovered the FDR and CVR in 16,000 feet of water. Itís good to see the Aussies taking a bigger lead in this investigation along with the Kiwis. They have the resources experience and knowledge of both the Southern and Indian Ocean, and Iím quietly confident they will locate the hull and recover the FDR in the fullness of time. When that happens (and it will happen) we will finally find out how hard the crew worked to save the aircraft and its passengers. When it happens those of you who have been publishing grossly irresponsible comments suggesting the crew committed suicide, or these ludicrous suggestions the aircraft is parked up on some secret 10,000 ft runway that the rest of us conveniently have never heard of, will end up with substantial egg on face.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:23
  #5651 (permalink)  
 
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I have to admit my ignorance:

In the T7, if the FMC is in HDG mode, does that mean it follows course over ground, true course or magnetic course ? And likewise if you are e.g. in Phuket and set e.g. Ushuahia as next waypoint, would it automatically follow a great circle ?
in the hdg mode the autopilot will follow a contant heading which will result with wind drift in a different course over ground . heading is set by the heading knob. the final course over ground will also change if winddirection or speed changes over time and the hdg is not readjusted. the fmc has nothing in common with this mode - fmc follows a programmed track or route ( LNAV ) and the autpoliot here corrects by itself for winddrift to maintain a given track .
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:26
  #5652 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by G-ARVH View Post

The SAA 747 that was lost over the Indian Ocean was due to a fire in the combi cargo compartment. They eventually recovered the FDR and CVR in 16,000 feet of water. .


And they knew almost exactly where the Helderberg was, he was in communication to the end.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:27
  #5653 (permalink)  
 
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G-ARVH If there was a Wheel Fire in the main Wheel Well they would get a EICAS Fire Wheel Well Warning and they would have followed the QRH procedure and then declared a Pan or Mayday as required. This would certainly NOT include climbing to FL450 to put out the Fire!!!
( the QRH from memory says to slow below MLO .82/270kias and extend the gear, if the warning continues LAND ASAP. )

Nitpicker 330 ref your post ~5554 above, why are you dismissing a wheel well fire with such ease. The T7 was heavy and with high relative humidity at KL that night the take-off run would have been long. A deflated tyre may have been detected and if a fire developed in the wheel well EIDAS would have reported that as you correctly point out, however letís assume they were working through the QRH when events overtook the crew. Any fire especially an electrical fire would be extremely serious and they may have pulled all the main busses while working through the QRH and were restoring electrical circuits in an attempt to identify the bad circuit. Such an action would of course disable the comms including the transponder; however the priority must be to identify and isolate the fire. Even in the worst case the vital bus however would still be good containing the radio including 121.5

A sequence of events took place that resulted in the crew making a standard left turn after the coms bus was disabled. This action is consistent isnít it of the crew looking to regain the reciprocal track or at the very least turning off airway. At the same time they would be working through the QRH while trying to get below MLO when events overtook them.

The SAA 747 that was lost over the Indian Ocean was due to a fire in the combi cargo compartment. They eventually recovered the FDR and CVR in 16,000 feet of water. Itís good to see the Aussies taking a bigger lead in this investigation along with the Kiwis. They have the resources experience and knowledge of both the Southern and Indian Ocean, and Iím quietly confident they will locate the hull and recover the FDR in the fullness of time. When that happens (and it will happen) we will finally find out how hard the crew worked to save the aircraft and its passengers. When it happens those of you who have been publishing grossly irresponsible comments suggesting the crew committed suicide, or these ludicrous suggestions the aircraft is parked up on some secret 10,000 ft runway that the rest of us conveniently have never heard of, will end up with substantial egg on face.
And how do you explain everything after that?

And what was the fire doing during the climb?

And why would anyone go up when LAND ASAP for SMOKE?

It doesn't hold water.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:28
  #5654 (permalink)  
 
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Nitpicker 330 ref your post ~5554 above, why are you dismissing a wheel well fire with such ease. The T7 was heavy and with high relative humidity at KL that night the take-off run would have been long. A deflated tyre may have been detected and if a fire developed in the wheel well EIDAS would have reported that as you correctly point out, however letís assume they were working through the QRH when events overtook the crew. Any fire especially an electrical fire would be extremely serious and they may have pulled all the main busses while working through the QRH and were restoring electrical circuits in an attempt to identify the bad circuit. Such an action would of course disable the comms including the transponder; however the priority must be to identify and isolate the fire. Even in the worst case the vital bus however would still be good containing the radio including 121.5
FWIW: The hole that I see in this analysis is the flight deck crew continuing on the first leg of their route / departure to the handover point and checking out with ATC on VHF with no meniton of a malfunction, nor of a fire, and likewise no record of them contacting on the company ops freq of such a problem. *retracted*
EDIT: for G-ARVH
We are talking about a deflated tyre that caught fire on take-off. Itís slow burning and smouldering, this has happened elsewhere in the world before in Nigeria I think leading to the loss of the aircraft. However by the top of the climb everything appears normal with the wheel in its well until they get a EIDAS warning.
I'll retract the critique, but leave it up in case someone else was thinking along the same lines. Thanks for clearing up the scenario.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 18th Mar 2014 at 16:45.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:30
  #5655 (permalink)  
 
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Obadiah

The reports that he was a staunch political supporter of Anwar and his party and perhaps even somewhat fanatical toward the democratic cause is also noteworthy.
Aren't most people normal people 'fanatical' about democracy?

Someone who is anti-corruption and pro-democracy is unlikely to use the lives of 240 people to make their point!
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:32
  #5656 (permalink)  
 
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The last known position is anywhere along the north and south corridors.
OK, the arcs define the possible location based on the SATCOM ping, but they are also limited by other factors based on maximum range based on fuel load and minimum airspeed range. We have a last known radar fix, and given the time this occurs we can calculate fuel burn to this point, so this defines the *start* of the following calculation. Next we can calculate the minimum airspeed possible from this point to reach the arc point and corresponding fuel burn - if the aircraft cannot have reached the arc then we know it was traveling at some higher speed (but I don't think that applies). Finally we can calculate the maximum range based on optimum cruise speed/min fuel burn, and plot that point on the arc. These two points define the segments of the corridors that apply. At any point between these limits we have a possible distance flown available based on fuel remaining.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:36
  #5657 (permalink)  
 
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We are talking about a deflated tyre that caught fire on take-off. Itís slow burning and smouldering, this has happened elsewhere in the world before in Nigeria I think leading to the loss of the aircraft. However by the top of the climb everything appears normal with the wheel in its well until they get a EIDAS warning.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:36
  #5658 (permalink)  
 
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There are only two known, proven facts till now:

1) MH370 was at least powered up till last ping received to Inmarsat (8.11).
2) The airframe is still missing.

Everything else (for now) are speculations, from wheel fire, Capt. political/private motives, Chinese terror groups, and so on, and so on.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:38
  #5659 (permalink)  
 
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Descent to 5000' to avoid radar

Persistent reports in the media as well as posters here refer to a descent to 5000' to "avoid radar".
1) at 5000 ft you are still very visible to radar
2) with no Transponder (and no primary returns) how do they know the a/c was at 5000 ft?
3) if the aircraft was tracked doing this over "two or three countries" then what countries were they? What was the flight path?

Sorry, doesn't make sense.

Also, journalists, why aren't you asking about the pings?
The last ping was on the 40 deg arc. On what arcs were the other pings?

The Malaysians are just not being forthcoming about everything they know, they are worthy of hearty condemnation on this.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:39
  #5660 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by dicks-airbus View Post
@ildarin: I read the post that on the flightsim PC specific practices were stored re. these destinations/fields. Who knows, maybe these were especially demanding or had nice scenery. May well mean nothing.

"Practice runways for Male, Indian, Sri Lankan airports and 1 US military base found on seized flight simulation software."


Do MAS fly to any of these runways? Has he ever flown to any of these runways?

Curiously I have been known to go to Google Earth and examine a particular area before visiting it
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