Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
Chinese said to have very good radar
China, though, has radar installations arrayed on mountains with overlapping coverage and the ability to look deep into neighboring countries, according to Mark Stokes, a former United States military attaché in China who is now the executive director of a defense research group, the Project 2049 Institute in Arlington, Va.
The Chinese are probably “a little bit more on the ball,” Mr. Stokes said.
The Chinese are probably “a little bit more on the ball,” Mr. Stokes said.
The Indian and perhaps Nepalese military may have more exact knowledge of where and how low Chinese primary radar reaches -- not that I think they will share that with us.
The Chinese of course want attaches to think that everything will be detected and tracked.
Mind you, taking a Turbo Porter on a smuggling run down a Himalayan gorge looks much more doable than in a T7.
Remember that there's not much point running primaries in a mountainous area without an interceptor force that can get to low level traffic sneaking up a valley.
A mountaintop primary getting an echo from a target below it needs software to separate that echo from the ground behind it.
These concerns stated, the Chinese primaries could be as good as advertised.
awblain
But they wouldn't need the return path time (I think that is what you meant).
If they had the Inmarsat ping, and another satellite in a different orbit recorded the same ping, that would help.
From the Inmarsat data they would have the absolute time the ping was sent. They would have the time the 2nd satellite detected the ping. They could then calculate distance from this 2nd satellite (which would be at a known location at this known time).
That would give them 3 spheres with which to work - known distance from Inmarsat, known distance from 2nd satellite, and surface of earth.
Hopefully... but it wouldn't have the time of flight measured for a call and reply signal, so the location might not be up to much.
If they had the Inmarsat ping, and another satellite in a different orbit recorded the same ping, that would help.
From the Inmarsat data they would have the absolute time the ping was sent. They would have the time the 2nd satellite detected the ping. They could then calculate distance from this 2nd satellite (which would be at a known location at this known time).
That would give them 3 spheres with which to work - known distance from Inmarsat, known distance from 2nd satellite, and surface of earth.
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Wawa
I think the best information you are likely to get on the waypoints is in the attached link. Putting together what separate unrevealed sources close to the investigation have stated with what Malaysian authorities have revealed publicly. They have publicly acknowledged the aircraft was heading north west about 320km from Penang at 2.15am, which adds up with the "sources" state.
MISSING MH370: Radar data suggests plane flown deliberately toward Andaman - Latest - New Straits Times
MISSING MH370: Radar data suggests plane flown deliberately toward Andaman - Latest - New Straits Times
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@ RatherBeFlying
I am sure the Indians, Pakistaniis and Chinese all have very very good coverage of the disputed area.
Recent wars have been fought there over territory (and not all is probably heard of it).
The do not need a fighter to check a target. A missile can do the job quicker.
I am sure the Indians, Pakistaniis and Chinese all have very very good coverage of the disputed area.
Recent wars have been fought there over territory (and not all is probably heard of it).
The do not need a fighter to check a target. A missile can do the job quicker.
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Why did the US Navy ships stop looking and go West with 7th fleet.
USS Kidd sent to Indian Ocean after 'indication' of Malaysian jet crash - Washington Times
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mm43
Back tracking NTSB positions
The graphic below is using an equidistant projection, and has a 40° and 50° satellite elevation arc drawn on it. The red tracks represent the two speeds used by the NTSB and an assumption is made that about 200+NM west of Aceh, North Sumatra, the heading was set to 180°M.
Back tracking NTSB positions
The graphic below is using an equidistant projection, and has a 40° and 50° satellite elevation arc drawn on it. The red tracks represent the two speeds used by the NTSB and an assumption is made that about 200+NM west of Aceh, North Sumatra, the heading was set to 180°M.
me #JustAsking 
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The ACARS will have been current position and next 2 waypoints from the active flight plan. It's one of the standard ATSU and AOC ACARS messages.
There are plenty of documents online which describe the different types of ACARS services and their message formats.
There are plenty of documents online which describe the different types of ACARS services and their message formats.
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Rigbyrigz,
ACARS is not going to report positions in an 'emergency route' i.e. Route 2, it will only report positions of the active route.
It's not overly difficult to 'accidentally' execute Route 2 (or Route 1 if Route 2 is in use). If, without thinking, you went to the Route page, activated the other route and executed it then the machine (assuming LNAV engaged and A/P in CMD) would turn towards the active waypoint, which may not be in the direction required. HOWEVER, it is extremely easy to remedy the situation and it does not require disengaging autopilots or random climbs to FL450. A simple push of the HDG button and you can then 'manually' steer it until you get the route situation sorted out and then re-engage LNAV. None of the theatrics you describe are necessary nor likely.
ACARS is not going to report positions in an 'emergency route' i.e. Route 2, it will only report positions of the active route.
It's not overly difficult to 'accidentally' execute Route 2 (or Route 1 if Route 2 is in use). If, without thinking, you went to the Route page, activated the other route and executed it then the machine (assuming LNAV engaged and A/P in CMD) would turn towards the active waypoint, which may not be in the direction required. HOWEVER, it is extremely easy to remedy the situation and it does not require disengaging autopilots or random climbs to FL450. A simple push of the HDG button and you can then 'manually' steer it until you get the route situation sorted out and then re-engage LNAV. None of the theatrics you describe are necessary nor likely.
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@jmmilner: thank you for answer.
You could be right: I have not enough "data" to exclude this... but I am not conviced 
Hope I can try again soon!
May be someone ask this question in the next conference: are all the known phone numbers of the pax been searched for connexion or a simple "ping" on the 03/08 after 01:20?
What you are seeing is due to the cell or cells in range being fully subscribed.
Hope I can try again soon!May be someone ask this question in the next conference: are all the known phone numbers of the pax been searched for connexion or a simple "ping" on the 03/08 after 01:20?
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@Airbubba
It is also possible that they decided it was just too hard to bother with the area after Indonesia refused the overfly of territory and used the excuse of the southern area which is easier under the circumstances.
BBC News - Missing Malaysia MH370: Search planes grounded by 'red tape'
It is also possible that they decided it was just too hard to bother with the area after Indonesia refused the overfly of territory and used the excuse of the southern area which is easier under the circumstances.
BBC News - Missing Malaysia MH370: Search planes grounded by 'red tape'
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Would be interesting to see the past 6 months flights of both the crew.
If and a big if any one of them were involved part of the meticulous approach would have been to probe reaction to transponder switch offs and military radar reaction etc.
MH flies the north west route and the part of the southern route too with the 777 so it could be a probability which I am sure the investigators should have analysed.
If and a big if any one of them were involved part of the meticulous approach would have been to probe reaction to transponder switch offs and military radar reaction etc.
MH flies the north west route and the part of the southern route too with the 777 so it could be a probability which I am sure the investigators should have analysed.
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rubyrigz
You're perhaps a bit misinformed or I'm perhaps misunderstanding you. There is no 'emergency flight plan' by default in the 777 FMC.
There is one active flight plan. There is also a route 2, which can be any other plan. It can be used in a variety of ways, for example route 1 copied identically in to route 2, but at the end of route 2 have a different STAR or approach. Many also will use route 2 to input enroute diversions, around high terrain in the event of a depressurisation or engine failure, etc.
Regardless of what you put in the second route, it only takes 2 button pushes to activate it. The first push brings up route 2, and the second push 'executes' it, which makes route 2 the active route. ATC via CPDLC/ADS-C will not see anything from route 2 until it is 'executed' and actively navigating the aircraft. Likewise for any amendments to the active route 1.
Over the planned route of MH370, I don't see a reason for route 2 to be different to route 1 in the cruise phase. I also would find it highly unlikely that route 2 could be inadvertently selected AND executed. If it was, and a turn to the left suddenly ensued, why not just re-activate route 1?
There is one active flight plan. There is also a route 2, which can be any other plan. It can be used in a variety of ways, for example route 1 copied identically in to route 2, but at the end of route 2 have a different STAR or approach. Many also will use route 2 to input enroute diversions, around high terrain in the event of a depressurisation or engine failure, etc.
Regardless of what you put in the second route, it only takes 2 button pushes to activate it. The first push brings up route 2, and the second push 'executes' it, which makes route 2 the active route. ATC via CPDLC/ADS-C will not see anything from route 2 until it is 'executed' and actively navigating the aircraft. Likewise for any amendments to the active route 1.
Over the planned route of MH370, I don't see a reason for route 2 to be different to route 1 in the cruise phase. I also would find it highly unlikely that route 2 could be inadvertently selected AND executed. If it was, and a turn to the left suddenly ensued, why not just re-activate route 1?
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Shadoko that second question is answered here:
Triangulation using cell phones fails - General - New Straits Times
Triangulation using cell phones fails - General - New Straits Times
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Now my REAL question. How easy is it to "execute" alternate Flight Plan B by accident? A slip, a slide, a push-pull? By definition, an emergency back-up flight plan should be quick and easy to execute, was it too easy?
Since you have to select the secondary flight plan and then activate it, I can't think of a time when I've seen it done accidentally (or on purpose, for that matter) in the aircraft. I have practiced using the secondary flight plan in the sim on occasion.
Some folks use the secondary flight plan to plot things like ETP's and other stuff over water. I'm a minimalist, the less buttons I push, the less chance of screwing it up is my thinking. We still do legacy plotting and position tracking paperwork. However, in a modern jet I'd rather mess up the paperwork and get it right in the FMS than the other way around.
The primary and secondary flight plans are normally erased automatically after a flight. Some, but not all, carriers also have canned flight plans stored for frequently flown routings that can be called up on preflight into the primary and secondary FMS flight plans.
Over the planned route of MH370, I don't see a reason for route 2 to be different to route 1 in the cruise phase. I also would find it highly unlikely that route 2 could be inadvertently selected AND executed. If it was, and a turn to the left suddenly ensued, why not just re-activate route 1?
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If and a big if any one of them were involved part of the meticulous approach would have been to probe reaction to transponder switch offs and military radar reaction etc.
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Thank you for all the pilots and expert commentary on Flight 1&2, ACARS, FMS, and general topics as well!
I have seen what here is often called Flight-2, referred to as "Alternate Flight Plan" in many ACARS documents available to peruse. There also seems to be many many versions of ACARS packages, and development over the years. Suffice it to say different airlines in different countries with different manufacturer models and different budgets, might have different ACARS versions?
Documentation for some, under "Flight Plan Report" (in-flight) do say the report includes both "active" and "alternate" flight plan. One might think the MH370 ACARS 1:07 report must have such a version for this 12 minutes story to make any sense at all...(but what makes sense w/ MH370)
...after all, if the Active or Flight 1 shows a change at 1:07 to the West, why isn't ground control going ballistic? If I am all wet, then sorry, but, just sayin. Anyway It's good to know the conscientious pilots here do not seem to ever have willy-nilly Flight 2... wonder if that's true worldwide?
I have seen what here is often called Flight-2, referred to as "Alternate Flight Plan" in many ACARS documents available to peruse. There also seems to be many many versions of ACARS packages, and development over the years. Suffice it to say different airlines in different countries with different manufacturer models and different budgets, might have different ACARS versions?
Documentation for some, under "Flight Plan Report" (in-flight) do say the report includes both "active" and "alternate" flight plan. One might think the MH370 ACARS 1:07 report must have such a version for this 12 minutes story to make any sense at all...(but what makes sense w/ MH370)
...after all, if the Active or Flight 1 shows a change at 1:07 to the West, why isn't ground control going ballistic? If I am all wet, then sorry, but, just sayin. Anyway It's good to know the conscientious pilots here do not seem to ever have willy-nilly Flight 2... wonder if that's true worldwide?
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Over the planned route of MH370, I don't see a reason for route 2 to be different to route 1 in the cruise phase. I also would find it highly unlikely that route 2 could be inadvertently selected AND executed. If it was, and a turn to the left suddenly ensued, why not just re-activate route 1?
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rubyrigz
There certainly are numerous operator options on ACARS packages, and the like. However, what we've been talking about is standard. It is part of the FMC/CDU from Boeing/Honeywell. There is one active route, and one 'backup' which can be used for the reasons mentioned.
What is in the inactive route will not be shared via ACARS, regardless of what operator options are chosen.
Jug:
In a word, yes. Or said route could be manually flown, or flown in basic modes. I'm not sure what your point is.
In summary, two flight plans can be loaded in to the FMS. One is active, the other isn't. The inactive route can contain anything - a diversion, an escape route, a mirror image of the active route, a modified version of the active route, or something completely irrelevant. To activate it, it's just short keystroke sequence.
What is in the inactive route is not displayed to ATC in any way. There's a good reason for that, as many of us like to make many modifications to it en-route - particularly over high ground.
What is in the inactive route will not be shared via ACARS, regardless of what operator options are chosen.
Jug:
In a word, yes. Or said route could be manually flown, or flown in basic modes. I'm not sure what your point is.
In summary, two flight plans can be loaded in to the FMS. One is active, the other isn't. The inactive route can contain anything - a diversion, an escape route, a mirror image of the active route, a modified version of the active route, or something completely irrelevant. To activate it, it's just short keystroke sequence.
What is in the inactive route is not displayed to ATC in any way. There's a good reason for that, as many of us like to make many modifications to it en-route - particularly over high ground.
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JugofP... "If there was a plan to steal the plane, could the carefully planned "hijack route" meant to confuse/avoid radar/etc have been pre-entered into the computer as route 2, so that at the appropriate time, all that would be needed to execute would be to press a couple buttons?"
I just watched Hannity on Fox and by coincidence this McInerney retired AF general was on. Not my usual network, by the way. If he is not off his rocker, anything is possible! It certainly would explain this campaign of misinformation-trickle.
Very scary though. Scary if he is wrong that he would espouse such views in a serious forum under presumably legitimate media coverage. Even scarier if he is right!
ETOPS240:
Thank you for insights. Does this mean the 12-minute story, if true as widely reported by good news organizations, implies the re-programmed route was in the ACARS 1:07 as "Active"?
If yes, it begs the question; does not ATC or anyone on the ground react to these reports in a way that helps protect the public interest? (in that neck of the woods) - Surely it would stand out as more than a course correction to avoid bad weather.
I just watched Hannity on Fox and by coincidence this McInerney retired AF general was on. Not my usual network, by the way. If he is not off his rocker, anything is possible! It certainly would explain this campaign of misinformation-trickle.
Very scary though. Scary if he is wrong that he would espouse such views in a serious forum under presumably legitimate media coverage. Even scarier if he is right!
ETOPS240:
Thank you for insights. Does this mean the 12-minute story, if true as widely reported by good news organizations, implies the re-programmed route was in the ACARS 1:07 as "Active"?
If yes, it begs the question; does not ATC or anyone on the ground react to these reports in a way that helps protect the public interest? (in that neck of the woods) - Surely it would stand out as more than a course correction to avoid bad weather.
Last edited by rigbyrigz; 19th Mar 2014 at 06:01. Reason: add info
