Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
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I have prepared a more accurate map of the various constraints governing the possible southern destination.
The red circle shows points that see the INMARSAT IOR at 40 degrees altitude. The plane was on this circle at 8:11am. (It may have been on the northern arc of the red circle not shown but I am just considering the southern possibility here.)
The pink circle shows the limit of INMARSAT POR over the pacific. The plane was not east of the pink circle. Otherwise POR would have detected a ping at 8:11am as well.
The green circle to the far west is the limit of INMARSAT AOR-E over the Atlantic. The plane was not west of that line.
The light blue circle is roughly the limit of distance that the plane would have been able to reach by 8:11am given its last sighting NW of Penang at 2:15am. So the plane did not have time to get south of the blue circle.
(Assumes 5400km from Phuket)
The white circle is the limit of Australia's JORN radar. If the radar was switched on at 8:11am (WST=MYT) then the plane may have been spotted if it was within the white circle. (Assume 3000km from Laverton).
The red circle shows points that see the INMARSAT IOR at 40 degrees altitude. The plane was on this circle at 8:11am. (It may have been on the northern arc of the red circle not shown but I am just considering the southern possibility here.)
The pink circle shows the limit of INMARSAT POR over the pacific. The plane was not east of the pink circle. Otherwise POR would have detected a ping at 8:11am as well.
The green circle to the far west is the limit of INMARSAT AOR-E over the Atlantic. The plane was not west of that line.
The light blue circle is roughly the limit of distance that the plane would have been able to reach by 8:11am given its last sighting NW of Penang at 2:15am. So the plane did not have time to get south of the blue circle.
(Assumes 5400km from Phuket)
The white circle is the limit of Australia's JORN radar. If the radar was switched on at 8:11am (WST=MYT) then the plane may have been spotted if it was within the white circle. (Assume 3000km from Laverton).
Last edited by ana1936; 16th Mar 2014 at 01:23. Reason: typo
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The number of first time posters flooding this thread with questions and theories that have been raised 100 times before is just....
-Cargo? Yes!
-Decompression? Yes!
-Fire? Yes!
-45000 ft? Yes!
-0 feet? Yes!
-FR24? Yes!
-Shadowing SQ? Yes!
-Captain had a flightsim at home? Yes!
-First officer invited girls into cockpit? Yes!
-False passports? Yes!
-The Chinese said something? Yes!
-Picture of village disguising as a fallen apart aircraft? Yes!
-Aussies have a radar? Yes!
-PM said it was hijacked? Yes!
-And on and on it goes!
I think the butler did it!
Yes mods, I know. Thank you for flushing 90% of this %#{]%{*{ down the edrain.
-Cargo? Yes!
-Decompression? Yes!
-Fire? Yes!
-45000 ft? Yes!
-0 feet? Yes!
-FR24? Yes!
-Shadowing SQ? Yes!
-Captain had a flightsim at home? Yes!
-First officer invited girls into cockpit? Yes!
-False passports? Yes!
-The Chinese said something? Yes!
-Picture of village disguising as a fallen apart aircraft? Yes!
-Aussies have a radar? Yes!
-PM said it was hijacked? Yes!
-And on and on it goes!
I think the butler did it!
Yes mods, I know. Thank you for flushing 90% of this %#{]%{*{ down the edrain.
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Seriously people.
Single failure!
Crew fixed oxygen cylinder. (Ie. the one connected to the pilot's oxygen masks) ruptures and takes out some avionics and holes the fuselage.
Think of the implications of that single failure. Think of the crew reaction/action. Think of the available time.
Please let's not eat our own young! These were good pilots, good citizens. Innocent until PROVEN otherwise.
Single failure!
Crew fixed oxygen cylinder. (Ie. the one connected to the pilot's oxygen masks) ruptures and takes out some avionics and holes the fuselage.
Think of the implications of that single failure. Think of the crew reaction/action. Think of the available time.
Please let's not eat our own young! These were good pilots, good citizens. Innocent until PROVEN otherwise.
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I saw some diagrams in the paper showing the vertical movements of between 45000' and 30000'. If the investigators are so sure of thevertical movement why can't they tell us where the pplane was at that moment.
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Exactly.
Thre is no evidence that anything was SWITCHED OFF.
Signals stopped arriving - that does not in anyway imply or support human intervention. There are plenty of more credible explanations.
For example, depressurisation caused by failure of an upper skin panel is highly likely to damage the antenna cables.
Thre is no evidence that anything was SWITCHED OFF.
Signals stopped arriving - that does not in anyway imply or support human intervention. There are plenty of more credible explanations.
For example, depressurisation caused by failure of an upper skin panel is highly likely to damage the antenna cables.
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Was JORN switched on?
The RAAF FAQ available at http://www.airforce.gov.au/docs/JORN_Fact_Sheet.pdf states that the Jindalee system does not operate 24/7 for fiscal and staffing reasons. Aviation Week could not get an answer as to whether JORN had provided any useful data to help in the search.
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@ancient greek
Thre is no evidence that anything was SWITCHED OFF.
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ABC NEWS (today): " Someone-in-the-aircraft (#MH370) *pre-programmed the plane to make a left turn off course. "
The above statement is surely one of the main reasons why the experts now suggest the mishap was "deliberate" not some electro-mechanical accident.
The above statement is surely one of the main reasons why the experts now suggest the mishap was "deliberate" not some electro-mechanical accident.
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For example, depressurisation caused by failure of an upper skin panel is highly likely to damage the antenna cables.
Ok, de pressurisation so what? This will make an aircraft wonder through the oceanic airspace for 7 hrs? Fly straight then make multiple turns? And what's happening to pilots are they on oxygen or just unconscious why aircraft took over all decision making including where to fly?
acad_1, the answer would be if a normal ACARS shutdown automatically sends a 'logging off now, bye' style of message or just goes Off like a transponder being turned off. Can someone on the usual receiving end of ACARS messages answer that ?
Northern or Southern arc ? By now, using earlier arcs and knowing the speed range out of the last primary fix near IGREX, the RCC should have calculated that one.
So, are SAR assets being deployed to the southern Indian Ocean, or not ??
Another question ! Did the aircraft actually fly through the VAMPI - GIVAL wpts and track out along the published routes, or were those wpts given as approxiamations of some wandering track ? That answer would infer a lot about LNAV 'piloting' or 'wandering'. Also, is any RMAF AD radar VNAV info out there (?), ie., were the 90 degree+ turns at/near the waypoints painted at a constant altitude, or at the high points of some phugoid ? (and you know what that means..)
Sorry, got no information about suicidal alien remote control gold thieves
Northern or Southern arc ? By now, using earlier arcs and knowing the speed range out of the last primary fix near IGREX, the RCC should have calculated that one.
So, are SAR assets being deployed to the southern Indian Ocean, or not ??
Another question ! Did the aircraft actually fly through the VAMPI - GIVAL wpts and track out along the published routes, or were those wpts given as approxiamations of some wandering track ? That answer would infer a lot about LNAV 'piloting' or 'wandering'. Also, is any RMAF AD radar VNAV info out there (?), ie., were the 90 degree+ turns at/near the waypoints painted at a constant altitude, or at the high points of some phugoid ? (and you know what that means..)
Sorry, got no information about suicidal alien remote control gold thieves
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Journey to the End of the Night
Hi,
Probably one more stupid theory, but who knows?
OleOle
And then fly evading detection until sunrise: it will be along the south arc of the last ping, after flying for the last time. Retaliation after is friend jailed for 5 years?
Journey to the End of the Night
Probably one more stupid theory, but who knows?
OleOle
It makes me sick thinking about it:
- Turn off ACARS
- Then depressurize
- Wait 12 minutes until cabin emergency O2 is used up
- Turn off transponder
- Zoom climb to what is possible, on topping out there will be less than 1g so it can be somewhat higher than what is in the spec
- now return, over land no cell phone calls will be made
- Turn off ACARS
- Then depressurize
- Wait 12 minutes until cabin emergency O2 is used up
- Turn off transponder
- Zoom climb to what is possible, on topping out there will be less than 1g so it can be somewhat higher than what is in the spec
- now return, over land no cell phone calls will be made
Journey to the End of the Night
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Jeez - here we go again.
There is NO EVIDENCE of any human intervention, terrorists, hijacking, rogue pilots, suicides or alien abduction.
The tiny amount of VERIFYABLE evidence simply tells us that something went badly wrong. Apply a good dose of Occams Razor and the simplest explanation is a catastrophic depressurisation, probably due to a structural issue.
Cargo door, cockpit windshield, upper skin panel ...... many more possible.
Even a birdstrike is possible - it has happened before at 37500 feet but I doubt if vultures would be flying at night.
There is NO EVIDENCE of any human intervention, terrorists, hijacking, rogue pilots, suicides or alien abduction.
The tiny amount of VERIFYABLE evidence simply tells us that something went badly wrong. Apply a good dose of Occams Razor and the simplest explanation is a catastrophic depressurisation, probably due to a structural issue.
Cargo door, cockpit windshield, upper skin panel ...... many more possible.
Even a birdstrike is possible - it has happened before at 37500 feet but I doubt if vultures would be flying at night.
Why are so many still dribbling about ACARS, satcom, or transponders.
I think many of us accepted the "What happened" days ago. Now trying to figure how and why.
Last edited by slats11; 16th Mar 2014 at 02:07. Reason: Typo
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Remote islands?
Are there any remote uninhabited islands with WWII runways where a 777 could land, and no-one would know? Maybe possible alternates (unofficial) ?
http://www.airfields-freeman.com/HI/..._W_Pacific.htm
The 777 is perfectly capable of landing with its communications switched off? It would be daylight by then...
The aircraft flew on for 4 hours or 7 hours? If it was traced upto 4 hours and the statellite transmission equipment was disabled/hacked to pieces by someone board, the logical course would be to turn again to an area no-one would think to look.
http://www.airfields-freeman.com/HI/..._W_Pacific.htm
The 777 is perfectly capable of landing with its communications switched off? It would be daylight by then...
The aircraft flew on for 4 hours or 7 hours? If it was traced upto 4 hours and the statellite transmission equipment was disabled/hacked to pieces by someone board, the logical course would be to turn again to an area no-one would think to look.
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I disagree OLASEC.
Your description is flawed when you consider what could happen when the crew oxygen ruptures. Holes the fuselage and subsequently does not provide the pilots with the life giving oxygen they need as they "maskup" and start trouble shooting. Really, google "QF30 incident"
Your description is flawed when you consider what could happen when the crew oxygen ruptures. Holes the fuselage and subsequently does not provide the pilots with the life giving oxygen they need as they "maskup" and start trouble shooting. Really, google "QF30 incident"
I agree, Mr Ancient Geek, but still the weeds sprout.
Can PPrune mods do something, ie., delete posts from the Twilight Zone crowd ??
I would suggest however that logical debate over an unlawful interference scenario(s) would be welcome if caution was exercised. I also suspect that plenty of, or all of the stakeholders would want to actively promote a 'hijacking' scenario, but with little real evidence.
Can PPrune mods do something, ie., delete posts from the Twilight Zone crowd ??
I would suggest however that logical debate over an unlawful interference scenario(s) would be welcome if caution was exercised. I also suspect that plenty of, or all of the stakeholders would want to actively promote a 'hijacking' scenario, but with little real evidence.