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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:09
  #3721 (permalink)  
 
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Kyrgyzstan or Tajikistan Airports

Given the possibility of a flight to the North towards Khazakstan, I note there are 86 functional airports in Kyrgyzstan and considerably more abandoned ones.

Kyrgyzstan borders Xinjiang in China. An alternative would be in Tajikistan which also borders Xinjiang.

Flights to either State can be made without crossing Chinese airspace, especially if the inwards vector is from around the Andaman Islands.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:09
  #3722 (permalink)  
 
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Outside of China, significant diasporic communities of Uyghurs exist in the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan.

Also, the 2 suggested flight paths are probably due to multi-lateration issues with the sat data. This is rougly equivalent to bearing ambiguity with sonar or the issues with correctly locating earthquake locations with data from multiple sensors.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:11
  #3723 (permalink)  
 
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I'm sure ALL military satellites will be or have already checked EVERY Airport in that area for a 777.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:11
  #3724 (permalink)  
 
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Just keep thinking 7.5 hours flight and you'll know where it is.

Why Malaysia has said SATCOM places it in 2 places at opposite ends of the earth is a mystery. There will only be 1 location pinpointed by SATCOM.
Not necessarily.. The messages may not be transmitting location data; they may be triangulating between two satellites, which would give a distance one way or the other from a given datum.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:12
  #3725 (permalink)  
 
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Why Malaysia has said SATCOM places it in 2 places at opposite ends of the earth is a mystery. There will only be 1 location pinpointed by SATCOM.
That's not the case. It seems that the aircraft did not send position reports as previously thought. INMARSAT and whomever (US gov't probably) were able to distinguish which satellite(s) were handshaking with the aircraft, but only to a degree that established an "arc". That arc goes North, toward the 'stans, or South, deeper into the Indian Ocean.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:14
  #3726 (permalink)  
 
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Yes, but I would think that the 'pirate' would want to be able to communicate with a ground team somewhere
INMARSAT and the United States, et al would have intercepted that immediately, no doubt.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:14
  #3727 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by somepitch View Post
The messages may not be transmitting location data;
they are, and its so telling that "leaks" have told us what is actually happening days before Malaysia deemed anyone else needed to know.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:16
  #3728 (permalink)  
 
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they are, and its so telling that "leaks" have told us what is actually happening days before Malaysia deemed anyone else needed to know.
You have a source saying the Inmarsat handshakes actually contain coordinates? Or are you just inferring that? There are more ways than transmitting actual coordinates to get position data from transmissions..
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:17
  #3729 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FIRESYSOK View Post
INMARSAT and the United States, et al would have intercepted that immediately, no doubt.
Inmarsat only relay the signal, it's be highly unlikely they have equipment to decode anything coming off their transponders, let alone aircraft communications.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:17
  #3730 (permalink)  
 
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If you go out from the idea this was a hijack and they tried to avoid being detected by radar, this must have been a pro with a lot of experience flying in the region. An amateur will not know how to fly waypoints to be undetected by radar. As a flight sim hobbyist I would know how to manipulate the autopilot and FMS to fly somewhere else, but I wouldn't know when exactly there will be a gap in radar coverage (certainly not sitting in the back), or where to fly to avoid radar detection. So you have two options:

1) one of the pilots did it
2) one of the PAX was a pilot and took over the plane

In both cases I think it must be more of a suicide mission than something else.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:19
  #3731 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by mabuhay_2000 View Post
Ok, we need to dissect what the Malaysian PM has just said.

He said that ACARS was SWITCHED OFF just after the a/c left the east coast of Malaysia. He said nothing about it ever being SWITCHED ON again subsequently.

He then said that satellites picked up signals from the a/c until 08.11hrs local.

Now, assuming that ACARS remained switched off, what was the nature of the signals the satellite picked up until 08.11hrs local?

Presumably, the signals must have been some sort of comms between the a/c and some other party. I'm guessing that whoever pulled this off would have been smart enough to encrypt any comms from the a/c to a third party.

So now the question would be... Can the various agencies crack the encrypted comms? My guess is yes, but it might take a while. And a lot of things can happen in that period.

It seems more likely that this a/c has been set down somewhere, not just kamikazes into the Indian Ocean. So, if the 'pirate' that took it thinks that somebody is onto them what will they do with the a/c and any pax/crew that may still be alive?
ACARS being turned off, means that data would no longer be sent, however the onboard satellite transmitter continued to get a baseline connection to the satellite just incase it needs to transmit the same as a mobile phone searches for cells so its ready to go when you needs to make a call. Like a mobile phone, ACARS is a two way communication....it can receive data as well like weather reports... (I think the receiving of data requires firstly a request for data from the planes ACARS system especially with regards to weather reports) - Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:21
  #3732 (permalink)  

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It would appear that the time has come for the FAA or NTSB to take over the investigation of this incident as the Country of the aircraft manufacturer Boeing until the aircraft is found.

If the ACARS pinging stopped at 0811 local time (00.11 UTC.) it would be interesting to check the mobile phone records of all the passengers as some will inevitably have left them turned on. If that is the case it should be possible to track those phones when they ping to establish contact with a ground base station if the aircraft flew over land or by intel. satellites.

The next question is did any flight deck crews flying the suspect routes pick up an aircraft without their transponder turned on? Routing scanning of the radar for weather frequently brings up aircraft returns.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:22
  #3733 (permalink)  
 
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INMARSAT uses geostationary satellites.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:23
  #3734 (permalink)  
 
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is it just me or is it a pretty damning indictment of the worlds military's that a plane that size can fly for 7.5 hours and not be noticed?

what happened to air defence?
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:23
  #3735 (permalink)  
 
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Inmarsat only relay the signal, it's be highly unlikely they have equipment to decode anything coming off their transponders, let alone aircraft communications.
They know exactly what transmissions came from that aircraft. They aren't amateur satellite operators.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:24
  #3736 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by p.j.m View Post
Inmarsat only relay the signal, it's be highly unlikely they have equipment to decode anything coming off their transponders, let alone aircraft communications.
ACARS location information is transmitted in clear text, i.e. its not encrypted & can be received at home by anyone with a receiver & decoder (software based)

https://www.google.com.au/search?q=a...sm=93&ie=UTF-8
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:26
  #3737 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FE Hoppy View Post
You need a performance course mate.
I think you're the one who needs a performance course mate.

This is a quote from someone who does fly the 777 from the Aviation Herald website.

Altitude of 45,000 ft
By S Eldin on Saturday, Mar 15th 2014 04:46Z

I have serious doubts about the claim of the aircraft climbing up to 45,000 ft.

Being familiar with the type, at the 230-240 tons that the aircraft weighed one hour into flight the performance limited altitude would have been between 38,000 and 39,000 ft, increasing about 10,000 ft for every 10 tons of fuel burned.

Normal takeoff fuel would have been in the range of 44-47 tons.

To climb significantly above these altitudes is not possible because the engines would not be able to develop the required thrust and the wing would not have been able to generate the required lift, both of which reduce with increased altitude.

To be able to climb to 45,000 ft (which is 2,000 ft above the certified ceiling of this 777) the weight would have to be reduced to approx. 165 tons; in other words the weight of the aircraft, payload and virtually no fuel .
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:26
  #3738 (permalink)  
 
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Air defence Primary radar range is 200NM (Nautical Miles)....that is not very far from land base radar station compared to the size of the seas in that area.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:28
  #3739 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by StormyKnight View Post
ACARS location information is transmitted in clear text, i.e. its not encrypted & can be received at home by anyone with a receiver & decoder (software based)
ACARS on HF or VHF may be, but even though you can receive it, can you decode all the "non text" packets to determine what the engines are doing? I don't think so.

You've got zero chance of intercepting a satellite uplink transmission.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:29
  #3740 (permalink)  
 
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StormyKnight

Why is everybody assuming the comms was from ACARS?

I presume, that if it is switched off, it is off, i.e. no polling or handshaking with a ground station or satellite?

I also presume that whoever was flying the a/c would need to communicate with a ground team somewhere where they were heading. That would need SATCOMs, surely?

Is it beyond possibility that the signals picked up by the satellite(s) were voice comms between the 'pirate' and a ground team?

I can't see the 'pirate' just swanning off in the plane without a support team somewhere to help with getting the a/c on the ground. That team would have no way of knowing if the op was a 'go' unless the 'pirate' could communicate with them, would they?
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