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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 13th Mar 2014, 13:20
  #2721 (permalink)  
 
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I've been away

I've been away for a few hours, and it looks like I've missed several hundred posts.

It appears that the Chinese satellite pictures were nothing and ACARS did not really track the plane 4 more hours. Please correct me if wrong.

So far, the only facts known are that the plane took off, and contact was lost.

Disregarding all the million or so reasons why contact was lost, let's look at some of the underlying, maybe unverified, but possible facts.

Oil rig worker reports seeing fireball near area of lost contact
(not to discredit him, but there were thousands of other eyes on land, sea, and air who saw nothing at the same time)

Malaysian radar MAY have detected a turn back of the plane
Malaysian radar MAY have tracked the plane westbound over the Straits of Malacca
Boat captain on north end of Malaysia reports low flying plane
Local men on north end of Malaysia report loud noise (I think similar to airplane, but I can't remember)
Most sophisticated search assets have been deployed since day 1 in the Straits of Malacca

Any additional possible facts that should be added?
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 13:24
  #2722 (permalink)  
 
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The facts are contact was lost at 121

All the rest is speculation.


The most logical conclusion is the flight went down at around 121
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 13:46
  #2723 (permalink)  
 
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'
There are only two facts; it lost contact at 1.30 am and is now on the bottom of the ocean.'

Neither of them you mentioned are facts.


They are facts aren't they?
Contact was lost at 1.30 ( give or take a few mins)
And the aircraft cannot conceivably be anywhere else surely?
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 13:53
  #2724 (permalink)  
 
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PAX under investigation

From SMH:

"Police investigating the backgrounds of all 239 people aboard the missing Malaysia Airlines flight are paying “special attention” to a 35 year-old Chinese Uighur man who undertook flight simulation training, according to a report in a leading Malay language newspaper in Kuala Lumpur"



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Old 13th Mar 2014, 13:53
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Originally Posted by redelect
Fact 3, it won't be found in the next ten hours
Not a fact unless you can predict the future with certainty. Couldn't SAR assets continue scouting for bleeps and pingers at night ?
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 14:02
  #2726 (permalink)  
 
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.I was under the impression ATC informed mas at 240 that last contact was 121
Still confusion about this so let's put it to bed, I was flying and on the same frequency at the time, Ho Chi Minh ATC started going mad trying to contact the MH370 on 121.5 at around 00.30 local Vietnam time. That is 01.30 Malaysia time, 1730 Z.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 14:02
  #2727 (permalink)  
 
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Military Radar Q

At the point the transponder ceased to respond the plane was approaching the coast of Vietnam and would be on Vietnamese military primary radar, no? IF the plane did turn west and transited the Malay peninsula (and the possibility it did so was considered sufficient to deploy SAR assets to the Malacca Strait) it would have been picked up by Thai military primary radar and Indonesian also -so why have none of these countries said anything? Awhile back someone did post that at FL295 it would not be picked up by military radar but it was picked up (maybe) by Malaysian military radar. Being a Commair it would have been of none the interest to the Vietnam operator as it approached the coast, however a turn off of filed flight path would -if it happened. Perhaps it did not turn west?
Another Q: If SAR assets were committed to the Malacca Strait why were not recon flights made over the largely uninhabited jungles of Sumatra to the west. A couple of days back Onetrack posted a plausible scenario that had the plane crashing into that area.
Unrelated but to the RR engine data bit -my understanding is protocol in this situation is to turn over anything they know to the investigating entity and it is the investigating entity's call as to release or not release (or authorize RR to release)
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 14:02
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Moderators

At this point, I think it appropriate to send a vote of thanks to the moderators of this forum. It is so fast moving and contains so much repetition and rubbish, including some of my own, that it must be a major challenge for them. Thanks Guys.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 14:04
  #2729 (permalink)  
 
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Radar Contact Till 2:40 AM

Surely:
I was under the impression ATC informed mas at 240 that last contact was 121

Two different things.
[A] Last contact with crew at 1:21 AM, Malaysia Time.

"Malaysia Airlines has said that ground controllers had their last radio communication with the pilots about 1:30 a.m" - Boston Globe
Confusion over plane?s route frustrates families and search - World - The Boston Globe


[B] Last Radar contact of an unknown aircraft flying in Malaysian airspace allowed to proceed unchallenged around 2:40 AM, Malaysia Time. This is the only reason search shifted to the west of the peninsula.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 14:06
  #2730 (permalink)  
 
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So after lots of messing around with westerly radar tracks it looks like we are back where were started Day 1.

Which to me makes the most probable outcome being a catastrophic event at FL350 leading to a crash on the flightpath with the debris mostly sinking and now some floating to the north and east, soon to be washed up on some beaches.

What that event was will be discovered when the boxes are found.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 14:18
  #2731 (permalink)  
 
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Where Did It End Up?

Davidsoffice

IF the rogue radar track was our aircraft..... Where would it reach, in that general direction, outside of friendly radar coverage before needing fuel?


This is THE most important question today obviously and if the aircraft turned west as most believe now, the only party that can help answer this question is India. Just now the news came out that India has deployed 3 ships and 3 aircraft to search effort east of Andaman islands. However, their unexplained silence on tracking an unknown large aircraft near Andaman islands is curious to say the least, unless, like Malaysia they also have been caught in a situation where they cannot confess to holes in their radar coverage.

Last edited by bono; 13th Mar 2014 at 14:26. Reason: typo
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 14:29
  #2732 (permalink)  
 
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Reports coming in of relatives of flight 370 passengers reducing malaysian airline staff in their hotel to tears during press conference and shouting at them "you are not leaving" after a 4 hour Q & A

Sounds like this situation is getting more and more toxic. Is there any precedent to something like this? (except air france 447).
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 14:40
  #2733 (permalink)  
 
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There are arrays of suitable satellites. I'm sure that if it turns out a mystery remains, then their owners can be quietly asked if they can help, and in an informal way they would. Countries with ocean surveillance radar constellations and missile warning imaging satellite, along with even some weather coverage from moderate and geostationary locations might be able to shed some light.

In the meantime, a fisherman with a bit of plastic is likely to be the first to shed light on the location of the wreckage.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 14:43
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..a fisherman with a bit of plastic is likely to be the first to shed light on the location of the wreckage.
Some of the truest words I've read in six days.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 14:53
  #2735 (permalink)  
 
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can we pls out this one to bed

Turin #2796
The fittings are on the rear/aft facing end of the bottle. If the fitting was to fail and the restraining straps were also to fail, then potentially, the bottle would go forwards not aft. That would send it either straight through the radome or potentially deflected upwards into the below flightdeck area. This contains the backdrive mechanisms for the control column and rudder pedals.

The possibility (of an O2 bottle failing as such) is remote at the extreme but not unprecedented.

I don't buy it.
What is the distance between the bottle's forward end and the bulkhead?

Accepting all your reservations I comment as follows.

If it hasn't built up max momentum it will not pierce the bulkhead, being round at the "front end" it will deflect and bounce around ( may even get stuck) but if it ever got to face aft this would propel it into the MEC, which by now is a fairly oxygen rich environment.

As an aside to those speculating the aircraft could have been "secretly" fully fueled you obviously don't know much about refueling procedure.

It is not like pulling up at the pumps needing 1/2 tank and deciding you might decide to go the scenic route and filling up instead.

At your hub ops will have informed refueling of the required load and that is all they will put in.

We once landed at an airport which was a regular stop and the refuelers knew pretty well how much we need to depart full and would send out a bowser and trailer. On this occasion we needed more, the driver would not let me have more, he asked to check the flight deck gauges, read the fuel content subtracted the input and stated we had landed below minimum reserve. I confirmed this and stated pilot was filing a report right then. I still had to fill in loads of paperwork for the fuel company.

YOU CANNOT JUST TOP UP
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 14:53
  #2736 (permalink)  
 
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What that event was will be discovered when the boxes are found.
What that event was will be discovered if the boxes are found. And If the CVR does still include the initial event, and did not overwrite it during 4 hours flight with anyone on board being unconscious, containing 30 minutes of silence in the cockpit...
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 14:57
  #2737 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by island_airphoto
Faking your ID:
In a Mode A/C transponder, you are whomever you want to be.
AFAIK with Mode S and ADS-B the identity of the airplane is hard coded into the transponder and not changeable in flight. Nothing stopping anyone from carrying around their own transponder, but setting it up in a 777 with access to an antenna would likely be quite the challenge

As far as popping up on a new code, this would work great in the middle of the USA at 4500 feet and 150 knots. Hi there! This is uncle Bill going to get a $100 burger and hit on the waitress. As far as flights crossing international borders and in the Class A - not so much.
AFAIK the aircraft identity is not coded into the transponder. ATC enters the aircraft ident into their system when they assign the transponder code. I would expect that if you select the same code it would cause problems with ATC.

Now if you were to coordinate with another known flight in the area and have them turn off their transponder as you turn yours on with the same code, that would be seamless with ATC.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 14:57
  #2738 (permalink)  
 
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Would the supposed conversation the Narita-bound 777 pilot had with MH370 about 10 minutes after the transponder loss, where he reported hearing "mumbling", be preserved on the CVR of his plane, or would it have been over-written by the time he reached Japan?
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 14:57
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I hope someone is doing a carefully controlled sonar survey of the area where contact was originally lost. Swissair 111 was found almost exactly where it was lost several days after the search had moved on, due to poor control of the original sonar survey, later inspection of the records showed that the debris was seen on the very first track. Needless to say it didn't look much like an aircraft.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 14:58
  #2740 (permalink)  
 
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That may be true, but the "Satellite coms" don't talk directly with the Satellites. They talk to a ground station that relays the information up to a satellite, so if the aircraft is out of range of a ground station, the messages won't go through that system.
Er, are you sure?

What would be the point? AFAIK satcom is used when out of range of VHF. EG over mid atlantic. The a/c communicates directly with satelites.


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