Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
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Did MH370 land and takeoff again?
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...-lost-161.html
Few pages ago i postet my take on a possible landing site.
I would put my bet on great coco island, i posted a reference few posts earlier, here is a better view.
Great Coco Island (Myanmar)
Livefist: China Expands Airbase On Coco Island
1.400 meters could be enough after fuel has been used? That would explain the flighttime to use up the fuel as much as possible. By an able and trained crew i think so. Could it land unobserved? Nobody was looking there from the orbit, when the search started to concentrate to the east of Malaysia. It is a remote place, only around a thousand people there on the whole island. The airport seems to be off limits due to military presence. Could it have been refueld there? There is probably fuel available or could be made available. Could it take off again? I dont know, what do the experts say after removing all load with some fuel to get to its next destination, be it another landing place or an eternal wet grave?
My original link, which included a high resolution picture of the place showing all details of the military instalations is gone, not from the site, but from the whole net. I cant find it anymore. I replaced the link in the quote with other not so good ones as they are older, before the runway was built to 1.400 meters.
If the mods allow, i like to raise the question wether it would fit the timeframe of the last received ping down in the south, if MH370 has been landed at great coco island, unloaded whatever they desired, and then be flown to the deep spot to get rid of evidence. If this pure speculative plot would be considered possible, then two things come into my mind:
From the beginning the uncertainity wether it headed to the north or to the south does only makes sense, when there had been contradicting information from the beginning, meaning a contact in the north and a contact in the south.
As there seems to be no information / ping reported enroute to the south, it could be assumed that this last ping was intentional, to point to the final grave of the jet and thus making believe it went there without landing before.
If the times do not sum up, or the jet would not be able to takeoff with the necessary fuel load from a 1400 meter runway, then all speculation above is doomed from the beginning.
edit:
Wikimapia - Let's describe the whole world!
Go to position 14.13151742 lat 93.3695639 lon
Few pages ago i postet my take on a possible landing site.
I would put my bet on great coco island, i posted a reference few posts earlier, here is a better view.
Great Coco Island (Myanmar)
Livefist: China Expands Airbase On Coco Island
1.400 meters could be enough after fuel has been used? That would explain the flighttime to use up the fuel as much as possible. By an able and trained crew i think so. Could it land unobserved? Nobody was looking there from the orbit, when the search started to concentrate to the east of Malaysia. It is a remote place, only around a thousand people there on the whole island. The airport seems to be off limits due to military presence. Could it have been refueld there? There is probably fuel available or could be made available. Could it take off again? I dont know, what do the experts say after removing all load with some fuel to get to its next destination, be it another landing place or an eternal wet grave?
If the mods allow, i like to raise the question wether it would fit the timeframe of the last received ping down in the south, if MH370 has been landed at great coco island, unloaded whatever they desired, and then be flown to the deep spot to get rid of evidence. If this pure speculative plot would be considered possible, then two things come into my mind:
From the beginning the uncertainity wether it headed to the north or to the south does only makes sense, when there had been contradicting information from the beginning, meaning a contact in the north and a contact in the south.
As there seems to be no information / ping reported enroute to the south, it could be assumed that this last ping was intentional, to point to the final grave of the jet and thus making believe it went there without landing before.
If the times do not sum up, or the jet would not be able to takeoff with the necessary fuel load from a 1400 meter runway, then all speculation above is doomed from the beginning.
edit:
Wikimapia - Let's describe the whole world!
Go to position 14.13151742 lat 93.3695639 lon
Last edited by RetiredF4; 15th Mar 2014 at 11:55. Reason: adition of link, dont know if it holds though.
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The 772 is a Faraday cage ?
@ HighAndFlighty posting # 3885 re "A simple satellite phone would do nicely" :
To relay the signal of your satellite phone through the 772 viewed as an effective Faraday cage you still need an outside antenna (with the systems backing it operational), so if the Air Pirates wanted to OK the landing at the intended remote airstrip somewhere conferring with their ground based acolytes, they'd need to switch the Inmarsat antenna back to 'ON' at some point in time. At that point, they'd give away their location, oder ?
To relay the signal of your satellite phone through the 772 viewed as an effective Faraday cage you still need an outside antenna (with the systems backing it operational), so if the Air Pirates wanted to OK the landing at the intended remote airstrip somewhere conferring with their ground based acolytes, they'd need to switch the Inmarsat antenna back to 'ON' at some point in time. At that point, they'd give away their location, oder ?
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PAX were from many countries. 777's are used by many countries. There is a very large incentive on both fronts for many countries to assist in locating the aircraft in order to determine it's fate.
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While I realize that all possibilities remain, ranging from malice to complicity to incompetence on the part of the flight crew, the possible hijackers, and ATC or military staff who observed the subsequent flight of MH 370, let's see what educated guesses we can make. Let's have a thought experiment that concentrates on likely events and likely reactions (while acknowledging that other answers aren't totally discounted).
1. Is there a general feeling that a NW flight path implies piracy for future use while a SE flight path implies pilot suicide?
2. Previously, forum members were able to share maps showing the civilian radar coverage areas in SE Asia. Is the same info available on India, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Myanmar?
2a. If there are visible gaps in that radar coverage, and we assume the aircraft flew through those gaps to a destination beyond those countries, how does that flight path narrow down the remaining endurance and possible destinations?
2b. If the aircraft did not purposefully avoid radar coverage when making landfall, what reaction would we expect to a NORDO aircraft passing into India, Bangladesh, Thailand, or Myanmar? Would any professional pilots with experience flying through those countries comment specifically?
3. If the aircraft WAS landed safely at some remote site after a piracy for future use, why would that "future use" not have been carried out yet? Why wait and risk the possibility of discovery and disruption of one's plot?
4. If the aircraft was detected at the extreme southern end of this overlapping Venn diagram, 1000 miles west of Perth, are there any airfields within 1 hour of flight time that would be usable by a 777?
1. Is there a general feeling that a NW flight path implies piracy for future use while a SE flight path implies pilot suicide?
2. Previously, forum members were able to share maps showing the civilian radar coverage areas in SE Asia. Is the same info available on India, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Myanmar?
2a. If there are visible gaps in that radar coverage, and we assume the aircraft flew through those gaps to a destination beyond those countries, how does that flight path narrow down the remaining endurance and possible destinations?
2b. If the aircraft did not purposefully avoid radar coverage when making landfall, what reaction would we expect to a NORDO aircraft passing into India, Bangladesh, Thailand, or Myanmar? Would any professional pilots with experience flying through those countries comment specifically?
3. If the aircraft WAS landed safely at some remote site after a piracy for future use, why would that "future use" not have been carried out yet? Why wait and risk the possibility of discovery and disruption of one's plot?
4. If the aircraft was detected at the extreme southern end of this overlapping Venn diagram, 1000 miles west of Perth, are there any airfields within 1 hour of flight time that would be usable by a 777?
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I beg to differ. A simple satellite phone would do nicely. They are small enough to easily be taken on as hand luggage.
Have you ever tried to use a satellite phone inside of a vehicle ? I have, and you can hardly establish a viable network connection, let alone make a phone call unless you have an external antenna connection, which, lets face it, they are very very very unlikely to have had on a 777 !
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ACARS
To torture an analogy -
ACARS is like SMS on your phone, and more accurately, its like Apple's iMessage.
The ACARS generates a msg. In then makes a routing choice of which way to send the msg to "base".
The msg then gets sent to the appropriate system for transmission (VHF, HF or Sat, depending on availability).
(Using the iMessage analogy, its sends the message preferably via Wifi, then 3/4G if Wifi isnt available).
So, disabling ACARS stops messages being sent - via VHF/HF/Sat. It doesnt necessarily turn off any of those specific comm sets.
If I wanted to "stealth" a 777, you'd turn off the Transponder and ACARS - they both automatically transmit data. There might be other systems you'd turn off - external lights, dim cabin lights for instance. TCAS if turning "off" the Transponder doesnt also shut that down.
As for VHF or HF, that just requires discipline not to transmit from the flightdeck. You might want to keep them on to monitor ATC.
Sat comm's is interesting. Out of VHF/HF and Sat, its the only one that maintains, in some form, continuous communication with the Sat. Like a cell phone maintains communication with the tower when not making a call.
I can see this being overlooked if, hypothetically, someone wanted to turn a 777 dark.
ACARS is like SMS on your phone, and more accurately, its like Apple's iMessage.
The ACARS generates a msg. In then makes a routing choice of which way to send the msg to "base".
The msg then gets sent to the appropriate system for transmission (VHF, HF or Sat, depending on availability).
(Using the iMessage analogy, its sends the message preferably via Wifi, then 3/4G if Wifi isnt available).
So, disabling ACARS stops messages being sent - via VHF/HF/Sat. It doesnt necessarily turn off any of those specific comm sets.
If I wanted to "stealth" a 777, you'd turn off the Transponder and ACARS - they both automatically transmit data. There might be other systems you'd turn off - external lights, dim cabin lights for instance. TCAS if turning "off" the Transponder doesnt also shut that down.
As for VHF or HF, that just requires discipline not to transmit from the flightdeck. You might want to keep them on to monitor ATC.
Sat comm's is interesting. Out of VHF/HF and Sat, its the only one that maintains, in some form, continuous communication with the Sat. Like a cell phone maintains communication with the tower when not making a call.
I can see this being overlooked if, hypothetically, someone wanted to turn a 777 dark.
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Malaysian Airlines have clearly radically changed their fuelling policy if there was enough on board one hour out for a further 7 hours flight (yet not enough for return trip to Beijing). Can any professionals explain please?
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@Frequent Traveller
I was envisaging they would have their own antennae with the phone, or could rig one up. But your point about them giving themselves away is exactly what I was getting at.
Like I said, we don't know exactly what data Immarsat relayed.
I'm just postulating that the data may well have included satphone calls.
They wouldn't actually give away their location. As has been noted, you can't triangulate off one or two satellites.
@ Mixture
I take your point about using the satphone handset in a car. In the plane, perhaps even with an antennae across the cockpit windows, they may have more success.
I'm happy to be corrected. The people who planned this excursion are rather clued up.
I was envisaging they would have their own antennae with the phone, or could rig one up. But your point about them giving themselves away is exactly what I was getting at.
Like I said, we don't know exactly what data Immarsat relayed.
I'm just postulating that the data may well have included satphone calls.
They wouldn't actually give away their location. As has been noted, you can't triangulate off one or two satellites.
@ Mixture
I take your point about using the satphone handset in a car. In the plane, perhaps even with an antennae across the cockpit windows, they may have more success.
I'm happy to be corrected. The people who planned this excursion are rather clued up.
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Red Eye
Re Question - would it be common for a high-hours pilot with significant seniority to be flying a red-eye flight (which I gather most pilots are not particularly fond of)
Yes - some airlines, the PIC does not get a choice of routes/times regardless of hours/seniority or even routes for that matter.
Some airlines however a senior Captain would not dream nor have to do such a flight.
Yes - some airlines, the PIC does not get a choice of routes/times regardless of hours/seniority or even routes for that matter.
Some airlines however a senior Captain would not dream nor have to do such a flight.
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Pilot home searched
Police arrived at the home of 53-year-old Zaharie Ahmad Shah shortly after the PM finished speaking, the Reuters report adds.by Alan McGuinness 1:19 AM
Breaking: Senior Malaysia police official says house of pilot of missing flight MH370 is being searched, according to Reuters.
Breaking: Senior Malaysia police official says house of pilot of missing flight MH370 is being searched, according to Reuters.
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Question for somebody that knows!
The location deductions by the sattelites is assumend to be from differential power levels. This would seem to have a extremely large error factor. Could the logs just be time tagged when the ping was recieved.
Sort of like a reverse gps. Another words sattelite 1 gets it at time x, and sattelite 2 gets it at x.000002 seconds later. This to would give a north south area of interest. I presume each sattelite has known time on board.
The location deductions by the sattelites is assumend to be from differential power levels. This would seem to have a extremely large error factor. Could the logs just be time tagged when the ping was recieved.
Sort of like a reverse gps. Another words sattelite 1 gets it at time x, and sattelite 2 gets it at x.000002 seconds later. This to would give a north south area of interest. I presume each sattelite has known time on board.
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I think it is safe to say the IAF has sufficient coverage to pick up a T7
IAF scrambles Su-30MKI after spotting UFO near Amritsar border - Worldnews.com
There seems to be some weight age to the flight swinging south and headed towards Australia. Given the timing , location and the gaps in radar it has penetrated this was done by someone with explicit knowledge and precision timing. Would find it hard to believe crew rest room door opening at opportune moment of handover and all other aspects given general awareness post 9/11.
If it is a man made event it definitely has an inside hand.
IAF scrambles Su-30MKI after spotting UFO near Amritsar border - Worldnews.com
There seems to be some weight age to the flight swinging south and headed towards Australia. Given the timing , location and the gaps in radar it has penetrated this was done by someone with explicit knowledge and precision timing. Would find it hard to believe crew rest room door opening at opportune moment of handover and all other aspects given general awareness post 9/11.
If it is a man made event it definitely has an inside hand.
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Surely the most likely explanation is a massive decompression and not terrorist activities.
We would have surely heard from the terrorist organisation who spearheaded this by now as a terrorist attack would be pointless without a result to the organisation and that organisation to claim their victory.
so massive decompression has to be the most likely cause to explain a number of course changes, lack of communication and coming down way off track.
We would have surely heard from the terrorist organisation who spearheaded this by now as a terrorist attack would be pointless without a result to the organisation and that organisation to claim their victory.
so massive decompression has to be the most likely cause to explain a number of course changes, lack of communication and coming down way off track.
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Assuming the info provided at the press sonferance is correct, it would be interesting to know what track the aircraft is believed to have followed. For instance, if it believed to have turned north-west after crossing the penisular and there is no sign of it having subsequently turned again, I would tend to assume it has taken the northern of the two possibilities. In addition, if it flew for up to 7 hours it would suggest that it would then have either had a controlled landing or a crash-landing by fuel starvation.
I may be wrong, but if it did not have a significant cargo load, at maximum continuous thrust I believe it just might have been able to reach 45000 feet toward the end of the flight, although whether it would have had enough fuel to fly that far at that thrust I have no idea (anyone with a flight-planning handbook?).
So what if from a point in the flight, it just flew off into the night with no-one at the controls? Indeed, could it have been following way-points in the database from a previous flight?
I may be wrong, but if it did not have a significant cargo load, at maximum continuous thrust I believe it just might have been able to reach 45000 feet toward the end of the flight, although whether it would have had enough fuel to fly that far at that thrust I have no idea (anyone with a flight-planning handbook?).
So what if from a point in the flight, it just flew off into the night with no-one at the controls? Indeed, could it have been following way-points in the database from a previous flight?
Last edited by daikilo; 15th Mar 2014 at 08:30. Reason: comprehension
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ACARS Data Switched Off, Satcom still ON
The ACARS data feed from the engine systems (for Rolls Royce) and other aircraft systems (sent to Boeing) stopped or was switched off.
The Satcom system (used by ACARS as an alternative to VHF links to ground stations) continued to operate, but only exchanged routine information (pings) with Inmarsat to confirm that the link was still alive. (These "pings" contain information identifying the querying aircraft.)
This is like your Outlook email browser checking with an email server every few minutes. The message check proceeds even if no messages are waiting to be sent or received. Of course, the client needs to identify itself to enable the server to check for messages for that aircraft. Normally, the senders and recipients of messages never hear about these purely procedural link maintenance communications.
When the Malaysian government says that ACARS was "switched off", they mean only that no messages were sent or received after a certain time. Neither the Malaysian government nor the hijackers realized that the Satcom link would remain active even without ACARS messages to transmit or receive.
The Satcom system (used by ACARS as an alternative to VHF links to ground stations) continued to operate, but only exchanged routine information (pings) with Inmarsat to confirm that the link was still alive. (These "pings" contain information identifying the querying aircraft.)
This is like your Outlook email browser checking with an email server every few minutes. The message check proceeds even if no messages are waiting to be sent or received. Of course, the client needs to identify itself to enable the server to check for messages for that aircraft. Normally, the senders and recipients of messages never hear about these purely procedural link maintenance communications.
When the Malaysian government says that ACARS was "switched off", they mean only that no messages were sent or received after a certain time. Neither the Malaysian government nor the hijackers realized that the Satcom link would remain active even without ACARS messages to transmit or receive.
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As mentioned earlier the satellite communications are received by the INMARSAT service which uses geostationary satellites covering much of the earth. Here is their latest map of coverage for the service (Classic Aero) which covers ACARS.
Our coverage - Inmarsat
You will see that there is only one satellite covering the India Ocean (the blue one) so that will have picked up the signals for most of the morning of March the 8th (until just after 8am).
So there will be no triangulation involved, and not even two satellites to work off.
Obviously the plane did not turn up under the coverage of the western green satellite because then the authorities would be more definite about the final signals.
Our coverage - Inmarsat
You will see that there is only one satellite covering the India Ocean (the blue one) so that will have picked up the signals for most of the morning of March the 8th (until just after 8am).
So there will be no triangulation involved, and not even two satellites to work off.
Obviously the plane did not turn up under the coverage of the western green satellite because then the authorities would be more definite about the final signals.
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anybody wondering what took them so long to let us know the possible new tracks the aircraft may have taken, Inmarsat data, etc?
More smoke and mirrors. In a global surveillance society, there's not a hope the thing could be missing this length of time and nobody be aware as to its location.
It went east, no it went west, no it went south, oh hang on, it went north west. Seriously. And nobody picked it up. Anywhere. They're still hiding something.
More smoke and mirrors. In a global surveillance society, there's not a hope the thing could be missing this length of time and nobody be aware as to its location.
It went east, no it went west, no it went south, oh hang on, it went north west. Seriously. And nobody picked it up. Anywhere. They're still hiding something.
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Unidentified aircraft
Searches now seem to be concentrated to the west and north west of Malaysia and hijacking, by the pilot or other person they don't say, seems to be the favourite theory coming from press conferences. This seems to be based on the Malaysian Air Force radar seeing it turn but as an unidentified aircraft.
Has anyone asked what the Air Force was doing whilst this unidentified aircraft was flying towards them? Same question to countries further along the supposed track. All sitting on their hands? Why were fighters not sent up to investigate? I am sure they would have been in Europe.
Could this have been a hijacking to test the air defence systems in the area?
Has anyone asked what the Air Force was doing whilst this unidentified aircraft was flying towards them? Same question to countries further along the supposed track. All sitting on their hands? Why were fighters not sent up to investigate? I am sure they would have been in Europe.
Could this have been a hijacking to test the air defence systems in the area?
