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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 13th Mar 2014, 17:40
  #2821 (permalink)  
 
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I was about to ask the same thing.

Both Boeing and RR deny receiving any ACARS and either they are lying or telling the truth.
If they are telling the truth there is a third possibility: that ACARS was being sent but they didn't receive them.

Otherwise, why is this Destroyer being deployed at high speed to what should be the wrong position.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 17:41
  #2822 (permalink)  
 
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So what, if anything, do the US know that led them to redeploy the Kidd at top speed?
That one is easy. Either a US sub or a US sub killer picked up the ping.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 17:41
  #2823 (permalink)  
 
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How feasible is this scenario?

To those who fly/work on 777s... How feasible is this?


1. Rapid decompression caused by exploding crew oxygen tank, or decompression aggravated by fault in cockpit oxygen tank/line;
2. Pilots don masks but there is no oxygen flowing and they aren't aware;
3. Pilots initiate descent and course reversal but mess up the interaction with the MCP and command FL295 instead of FL100 or similar;
4. Pilots become incapacitated within 30-60 seconds (time of useful consciousness as per source - http://www.casa.gov.au/wcmswr/_asset.../nov/20-23.pdf);
5. Incapacitated pilots inadvertently turn transponder to off or standby;
6. Pilots go unconscious as plane flies towards Andaman Islands/Bay of Bengal;
7. If spoilers had been deployed, A/T commands sufficient thrust to maintain (or attempt to maintain) MCP altitude and override effect of spoiler deployment;
8. Aircraft at near-max thrust runs out of fuel much more quickly than aircraft at cruise thrust, falls into the Bay of Bengal between Andamans and India/Sri Lanka.


What technical factors support or invalidate the above chain of events?


Thanks for all the input...
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 17:42
  #2824 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by cynar View Post
This is a big scoop for ABC news. Author is Martha Raddatz, absolutely impeccable sources and credentials, great, seasoned reporter.

What's becoming clear to me is that the U.S. (Pentagon and NTSB at very least) have better intel than the Malaysians, and, to protect the extent and sources of such data for reasons of national security and international relations, have had to find back-channel ways (the NTSB radar "advisors," NASA, etc) to leak the correct location of the aircraft to the Malaysians so as to seem to have them organically find it.

Unfortunately, with Vietnam etc. making good-faith efforts and taxing resources in a humanitarian gesture, the U.S. can't wait, sources are leaking to hurry this up. You can bet that was okayed at the highest levels and we have been talking to China.

My current theory is that the plane was hijacked but that the pilot flew it out into the ocean rather than to the specified destination.

This also helps explain why Douglas Feith, well-respected former NTSB investigator, was on air recently floating the turn-back/hijack scenario. At the time I thought he'd lost his bearings in all the media hype. Maybe more likely he had inside info.
Why would the US need to BS for a few days if they really knew where it was at? Does anyone really doubt the level of technology the US Government has available to them worldwide? Would it really be that damaging to the US intelligence community for them to say "we know where it's at, we'll tell you where, but we're not going to tell you how we know"?

Originally Posted by barrel_owl View Post
Wait. Two questions.
First. Can you please provide a link for this information?

And second. Then why is the aircraft being searched on Indian Ocean? How can the ACARS datalink have stopped at the same time as the aircraft went off radar and the same aircraft have flown hundreds of miles West without transmitting any downlink?

Would someone please care to explain?
I don't have a link but I just heard audio on the top of the hour news break on NPR from the Malaysian government's press conference where they said they have spoken with Boeing and Rolls Royce and there was no data from the plane beyond when it dropped from radar.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 17:45
  #2825 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by mabuhay_2000 View Post
If, and it's a big IF, the US is onto something in the Indian Ocean, then a whole lot of questions suddenly pop up, don't they?...
Yes and No.

The United States Navy has four Ohio class ballistic missile submarines on patrol at any given time, the United Kingdom has one Vanguard class ballistic missile submarine on patrol at any given time and France has one Le Triomphant class ballistic missile submarine on patrol at any given time, giving the US and its NATO allies potentially six submarines that could have detected wreckage.

Their patrols, routes etc are highly classified and none of the three nations would admit that one of their ballistic missile submarines was in the area, hence the way this might be being played out. There is even a possibility, especially in the case of the US, who are more likely to have one submarine in the area, they've sent one of their submarines to look in some deeper water, and they'll worry about explaining away any questions later.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 17:47
  #2826 (permalink)  
 
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AWACS are far and few, not usually in that area

They rarely are in that area and wouldn't be in an air defense role unless there were an active operation.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 17:51
  #2827 (permalink)  
 
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New search area in Indian Ocean

It seems that the White House is better briefed than the Pentagon press office. Jay Carney, the White House spokesman, has just confirmed thata new search area*may be opened in the Indian Ocean, reports the Guardian’s Paul Lewis in Washington.“It is my understanding the one possible piece of information, or pieces of information, has led to the possibility that a new search area may be opened up over the Indian Ocean,” Carney said, without detailing the nature of the new information.He said discussions were ongoing with international partners to “deploy the appropriate assets” in any new search in the Indian Ocean. He added the new search would be based on “additional information” that was not yet “conclusive”.His comments appear to*confirm that earlier story*by ABC’s Martha Raddatz.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 17:52
  #2828 (permalink)  
 
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I've always wondered how we get from 29.92 to a 1013.25 baseline myself.
29.92 is inches of mercury, whereas 1013.25 is mbar (obsolete unit).

1 bar = pressure exerted by a force of 1 kilogram-force over a unit surface area of 1 square centimeter.

The official pressure unit is now the Pascal : 1 Newton over 1 square meter, hence 1 bar = 100 000 Pascal, 1mbar (millibar) = 100 Pascal aka 1 hPa (hectopascal)
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 17:52
  #2829 (permalink)  
 
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Missing Malaysia Airlines flight live: Satellites picked up 'electronic ping' from missing flight MH370 after it lost contact with ground control - Daily Record

More details now on the 'electronic ping'.

A source close to the investigation said communications satellites picked up faint electronic pulses from Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 after it went missing on Saturday.

However, the signals gave no indication about where the stray jet was heading nor its technical condition.

The "pings" equated to an indication that the aircraft’s maintenance troubleshooting systems were ready to communicate with satellites if needed, but no links were opened because Malaysia Airlines and others had not subscribed to the full troubleshooting service, the source said.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 17:54
  #2830 (permalink)  
 
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The US has some pretty impressive IR and visual surveillance satellites -- which may have picked up an airframe off route over the Indian Ocean along with several other airframes and surface craft on various civil and military missions.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 17:59
  #2831 (permalink)  
 
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In reply to mixeduptransistor ("Why would the US need to BS for a few days if they really knew where it was at? Does anyone really doubt the level of technology the US Government has available to them worldwide? Would it really be that damaging to the US intelligence community for them to say "we know where it's at, we'll tell you where, but we're not going to tell you how we know")

We didn't know instantly, obviously. Then, I'm sure, various agencies needed to both share intelligence and get a plan.

But if the Malaysians, in cooperation with neighboring countries, could find the plane, or be nudge-winked to the plane, that would yes be far preferable, for many geopolitical reasons.

And, in fact, that seems to be what's happening. In the NBC version, it is the *Malaysians* who have *asked the U.S.* to go a bit further west. And the U.S. "denies" we have specific intel. IMO exactly the reverse is true, and we are seeing a historical narrative being shaped.

U.S. Ship Moves to Strait of Malacca In Search of Missing Jet - NBC News
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 18:00
  #2832 (permalink)  
 
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Water Impact Depth

A high calibre bullet fired into water gets about three feet. The idea that a 777 would have enough energy to get through 200 feet of water with enough energy to bury itself in the bottom seems surprising to me, especially as it is highly unlikely to be actually vertical at the moment of impact. Perhaps someone with a better understanding of fluid dynamics or, heaven forbid, some empirical data, could explain?

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Old 13th Mar 2014, 18:00
  #2833 (permalink)  
 
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Thank you, beast I've been scratching my head over that for forty years. Even spent a bit of time online trying to figure it out. Your explanation makes it clear.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 18:02
  #2834 (permalink)  
 
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depressurisation

Having read the comments of the National Transportation Safety Board following its 'major investigation' into the loss of the Lear Jet in 1999, in which they opined that

"Investigations of other accidents in which flight crews attempted to diagnose a pressurization problem or initiate emergency pressurization instead of immediately donning oxygen masks following a cabin altitude alert have revealed that, even with a relatively gradual rate of depressurization, pilots have rapidly lost cognitive or motor abilities to effectively troubleshoot the problem or don their masks shortly thereafter. In this accident, the flight crew's failure to obtain supplemental oxygen in time to avoid incapacitation could be explained by a delay in donning oxygen masks of only a few seconds in the case of an explosive or rapid decompression or a slightly longer delay in the case of a gradual decompression. "

1999 South Dakota Learjet crash - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

And the speculation here that the pilot's oxygen supply may have been compromised by airframe damage, am I to assume that there is no redundancy in the event that the primary oxygen supply is compromised?

Last edited by roving; 13th Mar 2014 at 18:03. Reason: syntax
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 18:07
  #2835 (permalink)  
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I, as I'm sure many members on this forum have been totally astounded how a modern commercial airliner such as 777-2 could simply disappear without trace. We understand the limitations of radar coverage and that of SSR. Moreover the mystery of a final ACARS message at 1:07 and nothing from RR is worrying at best.

It is appreciated that all these systems fulfil separate and important functions pertaining to flight and health but there appears to be an apparent omission in terms of off radar tracking. It certainly appears that the 777 in question was certified for ETOPS 330 operation but that certification excluded the requirement for real time SATCOM tracking when out of radar coverage. (In reality such tracking would be continuous from TO to Land but legally required when out of radar coverage.

Such technology is readily available and deployed by law enforcement agency's and private firms. 3 separate SATCOM units fitted to the nose, mid-section and tail that feed continuous data on the A/C track, altitude, speed and fix in 30 second intervals. The SATCOM units retain battery backup so can transmit for up to 10 hours after power loss. In this situation even if the 777 had exploded in midair there would be likely data transmitted to alert SAR response.

The fact that this aircraft has been missing for nearly six days is an indictment and embarrassment to the regulations, manufacture, and the various agencies that control civil aviation. This is not dissimilar to the Titanic board of inquiry that focused on the actions of the crew rather than the fact that Titanic was certified to sail with only 50% lifeboat capacity. My point is how can you certify to 330 if you have no ability to find it in an emergency?

The cost to implement such tracking is too often traded off against the probability of such an incident. The hull loss in this case will prove to be insignificant against the civil actions . The wider issue is the perceive loss of confidence in the ETOPS system by pax who may vote with their feet on long oceanic routes such as ANZ1 NZAA - KLAX on 777-3ER where nearly the entire flight is out of coverage.

My point is that this incident has wide and powerful implications for the airline industry. NOTE: before you say it ( yes it also pertains to 4 holers)
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 18:08
  #2836 (permalink)  
 
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Re Mode S:
It has a code you can enter for that flight, but also a code in the background unique to the airframe. It is - in computer terms - a MAC address and is used like that for data communications in the background.
Yes, that's a pretty good analogy. The confusion in previous posts probably arises because "Aircraft ID" (ACID) is the term used in the ADS-B spec for the crew-configurable callsign/flight number, as distinct from the aircraft's hardwired 24-bit ICAO address.

Does the 777 let the pilots change the tail number as well as the flight ID?
The tail number isn't transmitted via the transponder, except in cases where it's being used as the callsign for the flight. It can, of course, be ascertained from the 24-bit address, so it's not really necessary.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 18:09
  #2837 (permalink)  
 
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Why would the US need to BS for a few days if they really knew where it was at?
Perhaps they want to get to it first? To make sure that the cause of the crash is properly established?

Remember MS990.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 18:11
  #2838 (permalink)  
 
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If, and it's a big IF, the US is onto something in the Indian Ocean, then a whole lot of questions suddenly pop up, don't they?

Like how come RR and Boeing apparently have no data supporting the theory?

Like why the heck they've wasted 5 days searching an area where they seem to think the aircraft didn't go down?

Like who is actually directing the SAR ops?

And many more...
When a radio transmission is attempted but fails because of no hand shake response from the ground station, it will retry at a set interval. If the a/c is out of range from ground receiver then other sensitive (surveillance) radio equipment might passively detect these pings without responding. The signal can then be decoded given the appropriate signals analysis equipment.

Think of your cell phone. When out of range it sends a ping periodically seeking a handshake back from the tower. A radio receiver can detect that ping passively without any response and the receiver could even decode it if they have the right equipment. This is one explanation of how the signal was detected yet not relayed to RR or Boeing. To clarify the ping is only a short high power signal giving some very basic ID and ready to send data. It is not the full data transmission. If you have more than one receiver it is possible to triangulate the transmit location.

This technology in WW2 gave British fighter command an early warning of the German bombers coming over for raids. Needless to say signals analysis has come a long way since then.

Last edited by xcitation; 13th Mar 2014 at 18:39.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 18:15
  #2839 (permalink)  
 
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the West turnback theory

Despite MAS and Boeing/RR saying no data was transmitted after 1:07 am, the US are proceeding to search the Indian Ocean:

Communications satellites picked up faint electronic pulses from Malaysia Airlines flight 370 after it went missing on Saturday, but the signals gave no indication about where the stray jet was heading nor its technical condition, a source close to the investigation said early today.

The "pings" equated to an indication that the aircraft's maintenance troubleshooting systems were ready to communicate with satellites if needed, but no links were opened because Malaysia Airlines and others had not subscribed to the full troubleshooting service, the source said.

Two sources familiar with the investigation into the disappearance of the jet five days ago also confirmed that manufacturers Boeing and Rolls-Royce did not receive any maintenance data from the jet after the point at which its pilots last made contact.

Only one engine maintenance update was received during the normal phase of flight, they said, speaking on condition on anonymity.


Boeing and Rolls-Royce declined comment. - Reuters, March 14, 2014.

In a statement released today, the US Navy announced that from March 15, a P-8A Poseidon will be commissioned to the Strait of Malacca to aid in search efforts.

MARCH 13, 2014 - themalaysianinsider.com
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 18:16
  #2840 (permalink)  
 
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The insurance angle

One way or another this loss (and it is one) is going to trigger a MASSIVE insurance pay-out. There must be hordes of very nervous insurance underwriters and reinsurers currently scouring the small-print of the MAS policies.

Have there been any estimates as yet on the 'hull-loss' of a 2002 777-200ER?

It will also be interesting to see how the personal life-assurance 'relativities' for those pax from China and other ASEAN nations stack-up compared to those from other / developed nations.

Even the most conservative figures must already run into many hundreds of millions of $s. Factor in any possible negligence and the sky's the limit (excuse the pun). That is before S&R / recovery operations are factored in.

Did any 'final' figures ever get published for AF447?
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