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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 12th Mar 2014, 03:07
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The denial by the RMAF chief that he ever stated the aircraft was picked up on radar near Palau Perak is Malaysian face-saving - in case their conclusion was wrong. Radar picks up all kinds of things, not necessarily related to aircraft. The radar results have to be analysed and a conclusion drawn. That conclusion may be right or wrong, when the radar return is from an object that shouldn't be there.

Let's say MH370 definitely was the unknown item picked up by military radar crossing the Malaysian peninsula and tracked to near Palau Perak.

Lets also examine the report by the eight people sitting on the beach at Bandar Marang on the NE coast of the Malay peninsula at 1:30AM, who heard a "loud and frightening noise" that "seemed to come from Kapas Island."

We all know that sounds reverberate and bounce off large solid objects. What if the eight people on the beach heard an explosive decompression of MH370? (they would have been within hearing distance of waypoint IGARI, and sound carries a long way at night, and through the sky).

Let's say an oxygen bottle in the cabin exploded and caused major decompression, and took out a heap of electrical wiring and comms, including the transponder.
The crew immediately commenced a left turn to return to KL and initiated a rapid descent.
However, hypoxia took over prior to reaching a low level and the crew became unconscious. The aircraft continued to fly in a gentle arc, back over the Malay peninsula, at a steadily reducing height, or at a low height preset by the crew on the AP.

In that case, there's a strong possibility the aircraft crashed into the Gunung Leuser National Park - one of the largest, largely unpopulated, mountainous wilderness areas in Northern Sumatra.
An aircraft crashing into a high-elevation area of this park at 3:00AM local time would be heard by very few people - and it would disappear into the jungle just as GOL 1907 did.

It's starting to become obvious that MH370 did not crash into the sea in the current search areas. Vietnam has scaled back its search, obviously confident the aircraft wreckage is not in its search area. The seas in the search areas have been combed by vast numbers of ships, aircraft and even satellites over 4 days, and nothing has been found.
If there was wreckage in the current sea search areas, at least one or two fishing boat crews would have come forward by now. The silence is deafening. The aircraft obviously flew well outside the current search areas.


"Gunung Leuser National Park is 150 km long, over 100 km wide and is mostly mountainous. 40% of the park, which is mainly in the north, is steep, and over 1,500 m. 12% of the park only, in the lower southern half, is below 600 metres but for 25 km runs down the coast. 11 peaks are over 2,700 m and the highest point is Gunung Leuser, which 3,466 m high".
http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-co...plane-1.507926

Last edited by onetrack; 12th Mar 2014 at 03:15. Reason: addendum ...
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 03:14
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What if?

What if MH370 wanted to perform an emergency landing for whatever reason. Close to IGARI point the crew entered a possible airport to land in their FMS which could be VVCT CAN THO with VOR "TRN", because this one has a 3000m runway which is close to the intended route ahead. But, there is another "TRN" VOR closer by, guess where: TRANG VOR close to the Andaman sea. The crew under severe stress executes the top TRN (closest by) in the FMS and the plane turns immediately to that point. Could this explain the hard left turn after IGARI point towards the Andaman sea?

"KUALA LUMPUR: The international search for a missing Malaysian airliner has been expanded into the Andaman Sea, hundreds of kilometres (miles) to the northwest of the original search radius, an official said Wednesday."

Last edited by Tarzanboy; 12th Mar 2014 at 04:59. Reason: added image
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 03:37
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AIMS

The lack of communication etc etc from MH370 is strange. Having worked as ground maintenance on 777's for 15 yrs or so, I can only think that something catastrophic happened to power supply, and L and R AIMS has shut down, without AIMS, pretty much all communication is lost including transponder, and most displays apart from standby instruments will fail..just a thought..guess time will tell..just pray for the passengers and crew.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 03:40
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10 countries in the SAR operations - Malaysia, Vietnam, U.S., China, Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, Phillipines, Taiwan, and Indonesia.

The array of shipping and aircraft in the search is mind-boggling and must be approaching the largest joint SAR force ever assembled in recent years.

BBC News - Malaysia Airlines: How is the search being carried out?
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 03:46
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10 countries in the SAR operations - Malaysia, Vietnam, U.S., China, Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, Phillipines, Taiwan, and Indonesia.
Read yesterday on The New Straits Times that Qatar is offering to join in as well. Not sure in what capacity, surface or airborne.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 03:48
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If indeed the transponder failed, there were comms problem and it was returning or preparing for an approach for return. How is it possible that sophisticated air force like RMAF failed to detect the plane for over 1 hour and flag it as possible incursion?
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 03:53
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Neogen - I think that's what the Malaysians are trying to hide. An embarrassment of major proportions.
A radar operator sighted an unknown radar return, pointed it out to a "chief" - and it was dismissed as a flock of birds.
Either that - or the "chief" was sound asleep at home, and it was common knowledge he didn't like to be awakened, only to find a flock of birds being reported as an "intrusion".
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 03:54
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Dual TRN FMS waypoints...

I just want to say that Tarzanboy's theory is quite an interesting one upon further reflection. What are the odds that there is a perfectly suitable emergency diversion straight ahead with identifier "TRN", plus another location with identifier "TRN" back near the Andaman sea where the aircraft seems to have flown to instead for no apparent reason?

I must admit, it seems like an easy mistake to select the wrong TRN on the display when they would both be roughly the same distance from the place of last contact.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 04:02
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Onetrack - or they sighted the radar return, informed the chief, RMAF scrambled the jet and overzealous RMAF .....

One fact for sure: Malaysian officials have given ambiguous, inaccurate and at times directly contradictory information since the aircraft's disappearance.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 04:03
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@DWS posted:

ITS now being reported on FOX ( kelley files ) - that 777- BA has had had a request or notice in for change to FBW computer / reporting systems for security reasons- that there IS a common ( wired) link somehow between some of the FBW reporting systems and the inflight passenger entertainment systems- and possibly subject to hacking !
Dont know if this report is factual- but am posting it here to give some people with access to FAA paperwork, etc a chance to look it up.

And hopefully to give the moderators a chance to standby for a flood of

"it was hacked and is now in area 51 .... or somewhere-"

In any case- some factual data on this issue would be appreciated by many on this forum-
Here is the info on this topic:

Special Conditions: Boeing Model 777-200, -300, and -300ER Series Airplanes; Aircraft Electronic System Security Protection From Unauthorized Internal Access

Last edited by 220mph; 12th Mar 2014 at 06:45.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 04:04
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India has joined search

According to Astro Awani

NEW DELHI: Ships of the Indian Navy that are on patrol in the Straits of Malacca are participating in the search and rescue (SAR) operations for the Malaysia Airlines (MAS) MH370 which went missing last Saturday.

The Indian Navy's satellite Rukmini or GSAT-7 has also been activated to pick up any clue that may lead investigators to the missing aircraft, Indian Media reported.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 04:11
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Someone has done something really bad in Malaysia associate with this disaster because there's some royal butt covering going on here..
At some point (probably sometime yesterday) you start loosing more face by not telling than telling what you know!
Matyj I'm beginning to think the same. This is starting to sound like a cover up of something embarrassing to Malaysia.
If the cover up was started in a panic there'll be a lot of buck passing going on, with nobody willing to man up and tell the truth. That's the Malaysian way.

By the way, was MAS conducting any kind of disciplinary action on the FO already?
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 04:13
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Originally Posted by Neogen
Onetrack - or they sighted the radar return, informed the chief, RMAF scrambled the jet and overzealous RMAF .....

One fact for sure: Malaysian officials have given ambiguous, inaccurate and at times directly contradictory information since the aircraft's disappearance.
I just don't see RMAF getting all the way through the chain of command from the radar grunt, to whoever has authorization to shoot down bogeys, to a fighter jet, in the amount of time it takes for a 777 to go from the point where transponders were shut down to the point where it exited Malaysian waters on the way into the big unknown (30-40 min), at 2 in the morning.

When Soviets shot down KAL 007, it took 2.5 hours to get the ducks lined up and to give an order to fire.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 04:13
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Neogen - Come on, you don't really believe that a large commercial, easily-recognisable make of aircraft (clearly marked with their own National Airline markings) was shot out of the sky by an RMAF fighter, without a second thought?? Get real, you've been reading too many novels.

This is Malaysia we're talking, not North Korea. The Malaysians may have their faults, but shooting first and asking questions afterwards, isn't one of them.

One fact for sure: Malaysian officials have given ambiguous, inaccurate and at times directly contradictory information since the aircraft's disappearance.
Correct. But more due to a bumbling bureaucracy, face-saving, and individual little fiefdoms within Malaysian society, who have a need to have their authority pandered to, often at the expense of the embarrassing truth.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 04:16
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I don't think it was shot down. I think it sailed across the Malay Peninsula in silent running mode ( hijack or crew gone rogue) then has run out of fuel or been ditched somewhere in the Andaman Sea.

They've been searching in the wrong place. And maybe they knew it.buying time?
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 04:16
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Military Primary vs SSR

First of all, I do not know the coverage of Malaysia's military radars.

Do we know if a primary pulse reached the location of the last SSR reply?

There could well be a considerable gap between the last SSR reply and the first primary returns.

While there may have been a series of primary returns, what evidence is there to tie those returns to MH370?

Or was it a smuggler or drone?

The Malaysian Air Force has not published the radar tracks. Most militaries would not as they do not want any opposition to know their capabilities -- or coverage gaps.

In the case of incapacitation, the a/c might run on autopilot until fuel exhaustion or CFIT -- or be brought down earlier by other failure modes.

If those primary returns turn out to be from MH370, we may end up with flotsam somewhere between Malacca and Madagascar. Finding the wreck in those circumstances will make the search for AF447 look easy.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 04:16
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Anyone have an idea how a Triple 7 would behave with a complete electrical failure?
I don't think it would simply roll over. If the throttles & flight controls were not touched, natural stability should leave it doing small phugoid oscillations and perhaps gradually turning. I believe the fuel system would likely continue to deliver fuel and the engines would continue to run until the feeding tank ran dry.

Just theorizing a bit, but if the cockpit were breached in some significant way, not only would you lose pressurization, you would likely lose some of the functions normally controlled from the cockpit. A crew would be at a serious disadvantage to do anything meaningful.

The radar returns from the point in space where the aircraft ceased its squawk should be closely scrutinized for evidence of loss of panels or structure. If there is such evidence, then these items would be an absolute priority for attempted recovery since they would probably indicate what happened.

If the aircraft has flown as far as it is capable of after the deviation event, then finding it in a large expanse of ocean is going to involve a lot of luck. That aircraft may look big standing next to it but it is entirely possible to lose it and not find it for years.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 04:19
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Good work Tom, must be hard work being a journalist these days when all you have to do is constantly refresh an anonymous internet forum for a story !

Missing Malaysia Airlines plane: US issued warnings over Boeing 777s
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 04:29
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Tarzanboy:
In looking at the image, this makes lots of sense, if indeed, their track was directly toward TRN in Malaysia.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 04:29
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The Swamp Missile...

She was carrying O2 Oxygen canisters...Terrible result.
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