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New eruption starting in Iceland? (merged)

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New eruption starting in Iceland? (merged)

Old 24th May 2011, 11:50
  #121 (permalink)  
 
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El Premier, If the cap fits......

Funnily enough, I think last years reaction to an unprecedented event was sober and correct.
This years reaction is much modified and having just read the rules that my airline will be working to, I imagine we will be flying sooner rather than later.

The proof of the pudding is no big holes in the ground (sea) with airliners in them! If anyone thinks this is lack of balls, then they are in the wrong industry and for that matter, forum.
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Old 24th May 2011, 12:02
  #122 (permalink)  
 
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ayroplain - Yes mate I have been in an aeroplane once or twice. You don't have to climb through the ash cloud to get above, ie climb south out of Preswick based on the 0600 SFC to FL200, then fly over it a 410, which is what the did. Therefore O'Leary won't find any ash on his 73.

For him to claim there is no ash there is correct but he might have been telling a very different story had he trogged around below 200.

Thanks for your input.
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Old 24th May 2011, 12:06
  #123 (permalink)  
 
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and for what its worth, the VAAC have access to more satellite products than just that Metsat RGB dust image which is being used by the media to indicate the extent of the ash.

There are more ash based images available, which to an untrained eye indicate small areas of something over west Scotland and NW England, which, based on the description on the website, indicate ash.

Met Office: Iceland Volcano satellite imagery
GrÝmsv÷tn volcanic ash observations - Met Office

Might not be the massive uninterrupted ash cloud which I would imagine some people have in their minds, but indicates patchy concentrations of ash extending well beyond that of the main band off to the north and east of Aberdeen.
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Old 24th May 2011, 12:11
  #124 (permalink)  
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Quite interesting update on BBC's live feed about the ash cloud : BBC News - Volcanic ash disruption



1304:

A different test flight by Glasgow-based Loganair encountered ash, the transport secretary adds.

Hopefully this will get a bit of focus, instead of MoL running around behaving like a little spoiled school boy, who doesn't get his way....
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Old 24th May 2011, 12:12
  #125 (permalink)  
 
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Funnily enough, I think last years reaction to an unprecedented event was sober and correct.
This years reaction is much modified and having just read the rules that my airline will be working to, I imagine we will be flying sooner rather than later.
Funnily enough - I think that despite the fact that there was NO direct feed of volcanic ash after three days from Iceland, Central European airspace for example remained closed.

I posted the relevant Satellite imagery with my earlier comments. The CAA themselves fully admitted this morning that the modelling of the Highly concentrated ash was somewhat out. The CAA have already deemed Aberdeen to be ''safe'' for operations once again. This CLEARLY contradicts the earlier VAAC model, in relation to the Highly concentrated ash.

Therefore - less of the vitriol. I never said anything about ''lack of balls'' or anything to that effect. I stated that the Southward progression of the ash as modelled, did not materialise - no more or less.

The certification for Operations to re-commence at Aberdeen is positive - because we are seeing that despite the modelling of the charts, the CAA are taking into account real-time developments, which was the essence of my original point.
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Old 24th May 2011, 12:16
  #126 (permalink)  
 
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Maybe the "bandwagon" = best practice, based on years of experience and trying to correct for unfortunate events and incidents that have gone before? Ever been 10 miles up the road to find the forecast was spot on tilos?

Meteorology is an inexact science, however people expect an exact answer that meets their exact interpretation with no flexibility, and seem shocked and outraged when sometimes it doesn't happen like that.

EI Premier, indeed, it looks like those making the decision regarding airspace availability are basing it on modelled AND observed data, which can only be positive.
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Old 24th May 2011, 12:19
  #127 (permalink)  
 
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Is that BA flight some sort of test/sampling flight? I remember last year Easyjet said they would equip a couple of their fleet with sampling devices (filters) but not aware that BA have done it?

Last time we sent a couple of flights up and had before and after shots of all the leading edges, engines etc.. to determine if any damage was being caused.

Could be the same this time?
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Old 24th May 2011, 12:20
  #128 (permalink)  
 
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And in all this usual hype lets not forget that in more than fifty years of aviation not one life has been lost due to ash ingestion. That includes the good old days when there were no computers as such or sophisticated monitoring systems.

The same cannot be said for bird strikes. Funny how the same panic measures are not made in the migration seasons.
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Old 24th May 2011, 12:21
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I seem to remember BA offering some of their aircraft for sampling last year? Don't know if anything was ever done, or if aircraft were ever instrumented?
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Old 24th May 2011, 12:36
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It's all well and good to fly in the area and take the risk once. Multiple sectors in contaminated areas may prove more complicated due to accumulated damage.
The only way to assess the damage after the flights is to perform borescope inspections on each of the engines, which accounting for cool down time would take 4-7 hours per engine and is obviously not practical after every single flight in these conditions. The first inspections may reveal no damage but after that it's russian roulette, the test flights may prove good PR exercises but in reality the information gathered would be too little to make any kind of accurate assessment based on each type of operation.
Our safety environment is based on reliability (historical data) and preventative actions. We do not have enough data to categorically state that the ash will not bring down any aircraft or significantly damage one so we are left with prevention.
If even one aircraft of the 20000 that operate daily in Europe has an incident or God forbid an accident, the risk would be completely unacceptable and it would not be long before the public lost faith in the airlines. The backlash on the authorities I'm sure would also be something to behold.
Safe operation in ash has been demonstrated numerous times and confirmed by evidence of erosion on radomes and engine inlets. Unsafe operation of aircraft in volcanic ash has also been demonstrated numerous time >50 via symptoms of EGT and or stall as well as buildup of ash in the aircraft bleeds and sensors.

I would suggest therfore that evaluation of symptoms/evidences after a flight provide room for risk assessment and a way to operate within practical everyday risk levels.

However, I think it prudent not to push the boudaries of visible airborne evidences and attempt to find the boundary of where it`s unsafe.
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Old 24th May 2011, 12:41
  #131 (permalink)  
 
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ICE318 KEF-OSL - in descent to OSL - so Iceland is open, erm.... isn't that a bit closer to this volcano than Scotland...

BA A320 seemed to vary speeds quite a lot during his 2 hour loiter.

Not going to pro-Ryanair here but kudos to them for challenging the CAA reports, and bad form from the CAA to discount their findings without so much as "lets see your reports" - yes they flew at FL410 (I think) but so what. BA loitered at much lower levels. Ryanair HAD to climb and descend through the "ash" layer to get in and out of PIK. Must have some credence.
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Old 24th May 2011, 12:48
  #132 (permalink)  
 
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Another Ryanair test flight ha just departed PIK..
Wonder if they get it right this time...

BBC Reporting that FR are checking-in flight with all intentions of flying. ah well.

Also reports of a Loganair Saab encountering Ash.
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Old 24th May 2011, 12:54
  #133 (permalink)  
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As any spotter with a SBS box can tell you, the Ryanair 'test flight' climbed above the top of High Contamination Temporary Danger Area (the Red Zone)before it set course North from Prestwick over it. It was passing FL210 abeam Prestwick airfield and well above that level when crossing the Danger Area boundary about 20 miles North of Glasgow. It then pottered about at levels up to FL410, and at ALL times above the Danger Area before returning and descending after passing the boundary of the Danger Area (in other words in the clear again). O'Leary is economical with the truth once more. Which is what I think the CAA has already said

The BA flight has also never entered the Red Zone, remaining above FL200.

A SAR Sea King on the other hand encountered ash at low levels in the North of Scotland within the Red Zone, and also reported ash contamination on the ground in Orkney, but that couldn't possibly be true because O'Leary says there is nothing there and it's all a secret plot by the authorities.
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Old 24th May 2011, 13:06
  #134 (permalink)  
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Link below to the Spotters part of PPRuNe. Please feel free to post there all your sightings and screen shots of aircraft flying in the UK, cancellations, etc, etc.

If a particular flight subsequently generates some Rumours or News which relates to professional pilots, then this is indeed the thread to use.

Spectators Balcony - Spotters Corner
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Old 24th May 2011, 13:15
  #135 (permalink)  
 
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BA cancel all GLA EDI and NCL flights until 1900
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Old 24th May 2011, 13:16
  #136 (permalink)  
 
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Latest charts:
Met Office: Air ash concentration charts North Atlantic area Public

Janspeed - oooo pretty! And people are complaining that the VAAC are over-egging things!
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Old 24th May 2011, 13:23
  #137 (permalink)  
 
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These Austrians seem to have some pretty pictures......
Very nice, looks a bit apocalyptic though!
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Old 24th May 2011, 13:32
  #138 (permalink)  
 
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10w is to congratulated for trying to inject some sanity into this thread.

El Premier. sorry, 'balls' comment was aimed at the non -pilots making inappropriate comments, not yourself, with whom I just disagree.

For me, the grounded SAR heli in Shetland says it all. I'm not paid to be someones testpilot and I have no intention of being one. I suggest that all the non-pilots ponder on being a 'test-passenger'.

Ironically, I'm off on holiday to Greece tomorrow, wondering if I'm going to get away or not. And do you know, I'm more than happy to be flying with an airline that has a plan and won't be using me and mine as crash test dummies.
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Old 24th May 2011, 13:50
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And in all this usual hype lets not forget that in more than fifty years of aviation not one life has been lost due to ash ingestion. That includes the good old days when there were no computers as such or sophisticated monitoring systems.
And let's keep it that way.....
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Old 24th May 2011, 13:50
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If RYR check in flights "Intending to fly" and are then denied clearance,will they still have to compensate their passengers? Jut a thought....
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