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New eruption starting in Iceland? (merged)

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New eruption starting in Iceland? (merged)

Old 24th May 2011, 10:33
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Test flights

It's all well and good to fly in the area and take the risk once. Multiple sectors in contaminated areas may prove more complicated due to accumulated damage.
The only way to assess the damage after the flights is to perform borescope inspections on each of the engines, which accounting for cool down time would take 4-7 hours per engine and is obviously not practical after every single flight in these conditions. The first inspections may reveal no damage but after that it's russian roulette, the test flights may prove good PR exercises but in reality the information gathered would be too little to make any kind of accurate assessment based on each type of operation.
Our safety environment is based on reliability (historical data) and preventative actions. We do not have enough data to categorically state that the ash will not bring down any aircraft or significantly damage one so we are left with prevention.
If even one aircraft of the 20000 that operate daily in Europe has an incident or God forbid an accident, the risk would be completely unacceptable and it would not be long before the public lost faith in the airlines. The backlash on the authorities I'm sure would also be something to behold.

Does anybody know if the volcano is still erupting?

Brgds
SB03
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Old 24th May 2011, 10:42
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EI Premier:
Of course, however:

I think that perhaps the industry would be better served right now with dual use of real time analysis and NWP modelling, as opposed to ridigly adhering to the NWP modelling. A mix of both will yield the best outcome, whilst still maintaining safety for all.

Safety trumps all other factors, but it is equally important to ensure that when viable - flight operations should continue.
You may be right. My suspicion (and I know nothing about this) though is that the VAAC regulations will be worldwide and based on ICAO rules or guidance, and as with so many things, it may be that regulations haven't yet caught up with technology.

The problem though is that you're trying to forecast for extended periods of time to cover total flight durations, and on a 6 hourly issue period - not just one hour to the next.
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Old 24th May 2011, 10:54
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24 May - Volcanic Disruptions Scotland


UPDATED: 11:00hrs (Tues 24 May) NEXT UPDATE: 13:00hrs (24 May)

Ryanair has been advised by the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) that we may not operate flights to/from Glasgow Prestwick, Edinburgh or Aberdeen until 13:00hrs Tuesday 24th May 2011.

Ryanair strongly objects to this decision and believe that there is no basis for these flight cancellations and is meeting with the IAA this morning to have this restriction on Ryanair flights removed as a matter of urgency.

Ryanair confirms that it operated a one hour verification flight up to 41,000 feet in Scottish airspace this morning (24th May). The aircraft took off from Glasgow Prestwick, flew to Inverness, on to Aberdeen and down to Edinburgh - all of which according to CAA charts were in the “red zone” of “high ash concentration”.


There was no visible volcanic ash cloud or any other presence of volcanic ash and the post flight inspection revealed no evidence of volcanic ash on the airframe, wings or engines. The absence of any volcanic ash in the atmosphere supports Ryanair’s stated view that there is no safety threat to aircraft in this mythical “red zone” which is another misguided invention by the UK Met Office and the CAA.


Ryanair has also received written confirmation from both its airframe and engine manufacturers that it is safe to operate in these so called “red zones” and, in any event, Ryanair’s verification flight this morning also confirms that the “red zone” over Scotland is non-existent.


Ryanair has renewed its calls on both the CAA in the UK and the IAA in Ireland to reopen airspace over Scotland and allow airlines to operate flights safely when this morning’s verification flight has demonstrated that the UK Met Office’s “red zone” forecasts are totally unreliable and unsupported by any evidence of volcanic ash concentrations whatsoever.
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Old 24th May 2011, 10:59
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All below 20000ft Ryanair?? Or is that just a publicity stunt you're pulling?
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Old 24th May 2011, 11:03
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MOL is on Sky News now.....he's not holding back!!
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Old 24th May 2011, 11:04
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Ryanair are being rather misleading there, as far as I can tell none of their flight was conducted in the altitudes with high ash concentration.
They weren't in the "red zone", they were above it.
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Old 24th May 2011, 11:08
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O'Leary is spouting on Sky news!! Having flown the test aircraft all over Scotland at 41 000 ft spouting that there is no ash, 'been in the red zone - no ash, blah, blah! The charts don't show ash at 41k it is all down at surface to 20k. O'Leary is a t!t.
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Old 24th May 2011, 11:09
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Sweet, O'Leary says it's safe so it must be. Pillock.

Mates of mine in Jockistan have got ash on their cars so shut it you numpty.
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Old 24th May 2011, 11:11
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and no journo will have the capacity to ask those questions - they'll just take MOL at his word, and give the authorities an undeserved kicking. (Not that they don't sometimes deserve a good kicking...!)
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Old 24th May 2011, 11:13
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I'm no great fan of O'Leary; however, there is a school of thought which considers that, ever since the infamous "There won't be a hurricane" event, the UK Met Office has become overly conservative.

So on this occasion, I certainly don't blame him for speaking his mind.
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Old 24th May 2011, 11:23
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Beagle, that was 24 years ago, and we've had an overly optimistic Barbeque Summer since then, as well as lots of accurately predicted and no so accurately predicted weather. Which way do you want it? Besides, isn't aviation an inherently conservative occupation?
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Old 24th May 2011, 11:24
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Airline "Test Flying".

I just woke up from my nap having had a dream that airlines were "test-flying" their precious assets to prove a point with the authorities.

Then I look at Prune and find out it apparently wasn't a dream.

What's left of my brain raised the query "What are the insurers thinking as this goes on. Who picks up the bill at the end for clearing the smoking hole or rebuilding the engines which are eroded/glassed???"

Oh well, off to complete my rest..........
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Old 24th May 2011, 11:26
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... nevertheless:

'Ryanair flies a plane through high concentrations of ash over Scotland and the aircraft is unaffected, it has said.' and;

'Meanwhile RyanAir have expressed its anger at having to cancel all services to and from Glasgow, Prestwick, Edinburgh and Aberdeen until 1pm today.'

1) Did this occur and were the pax given a choice?
2) The 'hurricane event' is one thing but Ryanair allegedly flying in the face of warnings and good practice may give rise to claims of 'profit first, safety last?
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Old 24th May 2011, 11:39
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Basic understanding of the beast clarifies that MOL wants to fly. . . end of.

I would doubt if any aircraft were flown through a zone notified as "Red", over maybe, but through
There are one or two numpties in FR, but the overwhelming consensus among even numpties, is that staying alive is fairly vital.
I doubt even MOL at his most brazen, would countenance the insurance implications & political fallout of deliberately operating a commercial aircraft IN (as opposed to adjacent/above) an area promulgated as dangerous.

One of the few sane persons in the UK ? well, debatable, but certainly not THAT mad either
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Old 24th May 2011, 11:44
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Originally Posted by tilos
No sign of ash and no smell of ash.
Just had a call from my other half, out walking the dog in Perthshire, just north of Blairgowrie. Definite smell and taste of ash in the air.
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Old 24th May 2011, 11:45
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Why all this O Leary bashing, he done a test flight with no pacs yet Flybe are operating in Scotland today with passengers, who is putting lives in danger ??.
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Old 24th May 2011, 11:47
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so just how close did they get?

looks like the RYR flight might not have done what was thought. This from the BBC live news feed on their website.


1229: Government sources tell the BBC they are questioning assertions from Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary that one of its planes went through the ash cloud.
1230: A source told the BBC the plane did not go through the "red zone", where ash is at its most dense, and did not have measuring equipment on board. Radar tracked the plane which was travelling at 41,000ft.
1237:
More now on Ryanair's claim that its test flight detected no ash cloud over Scotland. Aviation regulator CAA confirms that at "no time did a Ryanair flight enter the notified area of high contamination ash over Scotland this morning".

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Old 24th May 2011, 11:48
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What aircraft are they operating? I understood that (turbo)prop were more resilient than turbofan / jet...?
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Old 24th May 2011, 11:49
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O'Leary is spouting on Sky news!! Having flown the test aircraft all over Scotland at 41 000 ft spouting that there is no ash, 'been in the red zone - no ash, blah, blah! The charts don't show ash at 41k it is all down at surface to 20k. O'Leary is a t!t.
Not sure if you've ever been in a plane but in order to get to 41,000ft it has to climb from the airport altitude (in this case Prestwick which is currently "out of bounds" to passenger flights according to IAA) and then come back down through all the flight levels to land again. If no ash was found in the air or on the aircraft then there is no ash at any level in the excluded zone.
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Old 24th May 2011, 11:49
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Just off the beeb's live feed....

Government sources tell the BBC they are questioning assertions from Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary

A source told the BBC the plane did not go through the "red zone", where ash is at its most dense, and did not have measuring equipment on board. Radar tracked the plane which was travelling at 41,000ft.

Aviation regulator CAA confirms that at "no time did a Ryanair flight enter the notified area of high contamination ash over Scotland this morning".


A CAA spokesman adds: "Aircraft engines coming into contact with volcanic ash can have catastrophic consequences. That's why there are comprehensive safety arrangements in place."

Edit : Beaten to it!
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