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New eruption starting in Iceland? (merged)

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New eruption starting in Iceland? (merged)

Old 24th May 2011, 21:18
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logged in to uk met office's crap website,there does not appear to be any ash concenteration charts ,am i looking in the wrong place?
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Old 24th May 2011, 21:20
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logged in to uk met office's crap website,there does not appear to be any ash concenteration charts ,am i looking in the wrong place?
Took me three click:

Met Office: Air ash concentration charts Eurasia area Public
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Old 24th May 2011, 21:34
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Germany closing some northern airports from 0300z due to the ash contamination
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Old 24th May 2011, 21:35
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thanks cuthere
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Old 24th May 2011, 21:37
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Just home from work.

The BA A320 had CAA dispensation to fly through the RED zone on it's second trip this afternoon and did so at various levels, routing from Manchester towards Newcastle and then into the Scottish TMA.

As far as I am aware it was the ONLY aircraft that had the relevant paperwork to do so.

There have been heavy showers all day here in Prestwick, and I can assure you that more than just rain has fallen from the sky, my car windscreen was very dusty when I left work at 10pm.

Hopefully all will be back to normal in the UK after 1am Wednesday morning.

The RED zone has now extended SE to the UK/Amsterdam boundary so there may be problems down that way by morning.
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Old 24th May 2011, 22:22
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Evidence?

I don't have any evidence except we have been able to circumnavigate this things forever in Asia and Alaska. What is the Met offices evidence that something bad will happen if we do fly through the area? And if they do have evidence why would they let a BA flight go through it. (paperwork will not make the difference by the way).

It is an abundance of caution that wreaks havoc upon the masses.

The government could't be wrong. Right???
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Old 24th May 2011, 23:03
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We need a geologist on here.

In regard to people claiming to fly around visible ash clouds I was recently told by a geologist, when queried about last years debacle, that eruptions under glaciers produce a very different kind of ash. It's very similar this year, and it's like nothing like an eruption in Indonesia or for that matter in Alaska as most of it's seismic activity is far from where the massive glaciers are.

If you actually do fly a DA50 and it's not your own, have you informed the owner of the possible risk involved, including swimming ashore?
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Old 24th May 2011, 23:25
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Well said Eagleflyer.
So have any of these things erupted in the last 37 years. If they have how come I have not crashed or heard of any engine problems.
Funny the techno becomes available suddenly danger danger. I'm with DA50Driver hear.
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Old 24th May 2011, 23:37
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We are talking about invisible ash Ie not in cloud or mist form.
Take the fact that No One has lost their lives due to Volcanic ash in more than 50 years and you have to question an overreaction.
As a pilot I take the view that if I cannot see it there is no threat!
Threat to me is something which will endanger my flight Ie stop my engines!
Ash which is of such low density that it is not visible will not stop or fail an engine!
Long term there may or may not be a shortening of the egine life but that is a financial decision not a safety decision.
I repeat there has NOT been a fatality due to ash in over 50 years of aviation.
The same cannot be said for Bird strikes or thunderstorm incursions,
Double standards ?
There is proven risk and perceived risk. Birds and thunderstorms are proven risk with a track record.
Invisible ash has no track record and is perceived unproven risk.
If we are so safety aware why not close masses of airspace in the bird migration season or ground aircraft when there is thunderstorm activity?
The billowing ash clouds are a different matter. They are as visible as a large CB but invisible ash ? Come on ! Press hype and liability fear based on nothing.
long term and engine life a vague maybe but a financial decision not a safety one.
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Old 24th May 2011, 23:57
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well, it was noticeable on my car tonight, parked for three hours a few miles north of Lancaster. Tried using the windscreen washers and the fallout turned into an approximation of builders mortar. Not much dust, but enough to prevent vision through the windscreen.
Oh - and it scratches glass
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Old 25th May 2011, 01:30
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It will scratch glass, so imagine what it does to the finer bits of human lungs. The term 'ash' reminds us of that soft, grey powdery stuff (from coal-fires) that went in the dustbins years-ago.
Pyroclastic material is very different.
It is angular/sub-angular grit and sharp, angular shards of volcanic glass.
Usually with a high Silica content. Many of the mountains NW of Lancaster are built it.
Volcanic clouds often have a high content of volatiles, CO2, SO2, HF, H2S, HCl, Flourine and Boron may also be present.
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Old 25th May 2011, 04:41
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Just a small question l would like to ask Pace.
Why was GPWS invented?
I think the answer was Pilots and l mean Pilots not aircraft, kept flying into high ground.
Now were they all stupid or did they not see the high ground.
Just a thought.
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Old 25th May 2011, 05:47
  #193 (permalink)  
 
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DA50driver....

What is the Met offices evidence that something bad will happen
It's pretty simple. They have none. The Met Office are asked to forecast the movement and intensity of the the ash in accordance with the definitions in the ICAO EUR/NAT Volcanic Ash Contingency Plan (ICAO EUR Doc 19 and NAT Doc 06 Part II, December 2010 edition) They do this using one of the most advanced dispersion models in the world. It is then up to the CAA, manufacturers and operators to decide what's safe or not. This idea that the Met Office are sitting staring at their computers deciding what will damage aircraft engines and then closing airspace is ridiculous. That is WAAAAAAAY outside their remit.

As an aside. I'd imagine if the airlines coughed up a few quid then the dispersion model could be better, observations of ash could be better, and disruption could be more justified.
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Old 25th May 2011, 06:39
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As a pilot I take the view that if I cannot see it there is no threat!
Pace, how do you think the many SLF who read this website will react when they read comments* like the one I quote? Do you think they'll be reassured that there are intelligent, professional and safety conscious pilots in the pointy end of their aircraft?
Or do you think they might become worried that some pilots are treating this a little too carelessly.


Also, try flying at the altitude of the ash - it will be more visible then. We had some at surface level here yesterday, and it was visible (just).


*Which I hope you write in jest
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Old 25th May 2011, 06:57
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PACE.

The reason no life has been lost, thus far, is because no one is stupid enough to deliberately fly into an ash cloud. When inadvertent flight into ash HAS occurred, severe damaged and flame-outs HAS occurred. If I remember correctly the Boeing book says don't do it.

During my career, I guess I averaged 4 lightning strikes per year, maybe more, maybe less, and god knows how many bird strikes. All of which I would have loved to avoid, BUT, I didn't kill any of my crew or passengers.

There are no double standards, just your own BS
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Old 25th May 2011, 07:13
  #196 (permalink)  
 
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James my car was covered in sand in the south of England before the eruption! A week ago!
What we need are density levels that are a threat to the flight not to long term engine life.
What density level of ash causes ash to be visible to the naked eye ? How does that compare with the existing maximum permitted levels.
Regardless the proven track record over 50 years shows that volcanic ash is not a major threat to life and certainly far less rhan many proven threats that we accept and live with.

Pace
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Old 25th May 2011, 07:54
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@ DA50Flyer

If I ever have the money to hire a bizzjet, remind me not to make it a DA50!

@ Pace

What airline do you fly with? As I might have to change some bookings!?

Sorry lads but as a SLF your ignorance and down right childish stupidity scares the sh*t out of me!
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Old 25th May 2011, 08:10
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Originally Posted by Eagleflyer
Let┤s face it, there won┤t be any change to the existing chaos anytime soon. Nobody wants to hold his head out of the window with a decision that flying jet aircraft 1000 miles away from an errupting volcano is indeed safe.

Thirty years ago we simply didn┤t have the computer power available to forecast (or should I say estimate) the amount of ash particles in far-away airspaces. Everyone (except for BA and KLM if I recall correctly) kept his distance from visible ashclouds and that was it. Since no accidents happened in the 50+ years of jet airliners aviation before last and this year┤s chaos I conclude that todays chaotic regulations are not based on common sense or scientific research but on lawyers` opinions.
Originally Posted by DA50Driver
This is all cooked up because of the lawyers.

I will be going to work on Thursday night flying from NY to Europe. If I start seeing St. Elmo's fire on my windscreen I will change altitude and or direction.

I am sick of some pencil-d..k nerd telling me how to do my job. Let's throw CRM and MCC and all that back at them as well.

In case you think I am writing this tongue in cheek, I am not.
Originally Posted by Icepack
Well said Eagleflyer.
So have any of these things erupted in the last 37 years. If they have how come I have not crashed or heard of any engine problems.
Funny the techno becomes available suddenly danger danger.
I'm with DA50Driver hear.
Originally Posted by Pace
We are talking about invisible ash Ie not in cloud or mist form.
Take the fact that No One has lost their lives due to Volcanic ash in more than 50 years and you have to question an overreaction.
As a pilot I take the view that if I cannot see it there is no threat!
Threat to me is something which will endanger my flight Ie stop my engines!
Ash which is of such low density that it is not visible will not stop or fail an engine!
Long term there may or may not be a shortening of the egine life but that is a financial decision not a safety decision.

I repeat there has NOT been a fatality due to ash in over 50 years of aviation.
The same cannot be said for Bird strikes or thunderstorm incursions,
Double standards ?
There is proven risk and perceived risk. Birds and thunderstorms are proven risk with a track record.
Invisible ash has no track record and is perceived unproven risk.
If we are so safety aware why not close masses of airspace in the bird migration season or ground aircraft when there is thunderstorm activity?
The billowing ash clouds are a different matter. They are as visible as a large CB but invisible ash ? Come on ! Press hype and liability fear based on nothing.
long term and engine life a vague maybe but a financial decision not a safety one.
Originally Posted by Pace
James my car was covered in sand in the south of England before the eruption! A week ago!
What we need are density levels that are a threat to the flight not to long term engine life.
What density level of ash causes ash to be visible to the naked eye ? How does that compare with the existing maximum permitted levels.
Regardless the proven track record over 50 years shows that volcanic ash is not a major threat to life and certainly far less rhan many proven threats that we accept and live with.
Let it be clear: I'm with all these guys I've quoted (Especially the underlined parts.) All incidents in the past occurred in thick, high-density ash clouds. NOT in nice VMC weather. And even then, when the KLM and BA crews (with hindsight) did many things wrong ( no engines immediately to idle, no 180░ turn, no wing + eng A/I on) they didn't crash.

Aviation is not absolutely safe. Crashes occur every year, but not one crash or incident has occurred due to volcanic ash while flying outside ash concentrations visible to the naked eye. A/C manufacturers can't guarantee that it's safe to fly in areas with concentrations >4000 microgrs/m2. Why is that, do you all think? Based on scientific data or experiments? NO: IT'S A LIABILITY ISSUE. Would you really expect RR, GE, Boeing or Airbus NOT to cover their ass, just in case somebody flew into some high density ash cloud?

So what should be done now?

Well, military A/C should be flying in the red zone by day VMC, actively looking, but avoiding visible ash concentrations. Make a post-flight inspection of the A/C + engines. No damage? Take-off again and go look for some visible (pollution-like) ash and examine the A/C after the flight.

Until now there's NO evidence that ash > 4000mgrs/m2 but still invisible to the eye has ANY safety impact on an A/C.

The decision to close airspace (or rules to same effect) is nothing but a bureaucrats' "cover-your-ass"-policy!

Believe me. As an airline captain I have safety on my mind all the time. I'm looking out of the window as I'm writing this and looking at severe CAVOK conditions but with low ash concentrations forecast. Maybe, just maybe flying my A320 in those conditions might have a long term negative impact on the engines maintenance, but I'm sure it's not going to kill me!

Until there's any proof or valid doubt that flying outside visible ash is dangerous, airlines should have the possibility to operate in daylight VMC-conditions regardless of the forecast ash concentrations.

Regards,
Sabenaboy

Last edited by sabenaboy; 25th May 2011 at 08:27. Reason: Added one sentence
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Old 25th May 2011, 08:44
  #199 (permalink)  
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All incidents in the past occurred in thick, high-density ash clouds. NOT in nice VMC weather.
This is Northern Europe. Where can you ever guarantee nice VMC weather here ?

Well, military A/C should be flying in the red zone by day VMC, actively looking, but avoiding visible ash concentrations. Make a post-flight inspection of the A/C + engines. No damage? Take-off again and go look for some visible (pollution-like) ash and examine the A/C after the flight.

Until now there's NO evidence that ash > 4000mgrs/m2 but still invisible to the eye has ANY safety impact on an A/C.
Why military aircraft ? They don't have any sensors to determine the level of contamination, therefore although they might prove damage, it doesn't assist anyone in determining what level of contamination or type of particle caused it. It is this figure which is surely important to the industry, as it will allow the tolerable level to be enshrined in procedures. The only way you are going to get that information is by using Met Research aircraft with suitable equipment on board, and a suitable ground based team to assess the data and make the judgements for the Regulators to act on. Maybe the manufacturers and the airlines could pay for this to happen urgently as it will ultimately be in all their interests. There certainly doesn't seem to have been much done in the last year to advance the publication of a 'safe' level.
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Old 25th May 2011, 08:45
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Sabena boy I am flying south France at 1230 and am trembling in my shoes as I look out of my Hotel room at clear blue Skies.
Totally agree with you. There are far too many arse watchers and headline grabbers.
If I note anything on my flight I will post tonight ; )

Pace
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