New eruption starting in Iceland? (merged)

[Pizzaro]

Am sure there is an act of God clause in the Passenger charter legistlation now ???????????

[WHBM]

Although we have had goodness knows how many volcanc eruptions previously, only last year did we even contemplate closing airspace the best part of 1,000 nm from the eruption. It certainly didn't happen, for example, with Mount St Helens in the USA some years ago, where appropriate rerouting and checking of filters allowed things to roll on with an APPROPRIATE level of handling the situation. I wonder what has changed about volcanoes in recent times.

On BBC radio news this morning they had managed to get an interview on the topic with "the expert", probably from the VAAC. The expert immediately prefaced several statements with "we don't know". Well, dear, if we don't know, how can you present yourself as "the expert; this is a description of someone who does know.

WHBM (last year stranded at JFK for a week).

[Agaricus bisporus]

everything from leads north wards

Missing something here. What leads north wards (sic)?




Edited in disbelief upon re-reading the quoted post. Does the poster actually mean from Leeds northwards??????

[EI Premier]

I can recall sitting in a hotel room on the continent during 2010, watching the UK Met Office slowly, unncecessarily colouring the map of Europe. Let's hope that we don't see a repeat of this yet again.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...1306151334.png

Irish and Scottish airspace are being listed as being within the risk zone from 0600 tomorrow. However, the projected ash concentration charts will be key.

The latest satellite imagery however, indicates that the level of ash being emitted may be declining.

EUMETSAT IPPS animation - Meteosat 0 degree Ash Iceland

EI Premier

[avocado737]

Well, looking at this one here, I would say he is right: Everything from Leeds upwards will be closed and I guarantee you, it'll get worse!

[EI Premier]

Well, looking at this one here, I would say he is right: Everything from Leeds upwards will be closed and I guarantee you, it'll get worse!

The latest London VAAC Ash concentration chart is a little more troubling and given the synoptic situation, one has to question as to whether the Southward extent of any ash concentration is being over-estimated.

What is your perogative for being certain of it getting worse?

I've posted the synoptic evolution for 0600 in the top right hand corner also. With that ridge of 1030MB pushing in from the Southwest rapidly during the day, any risk would diminish across Ireland relatively quickly and the bulk of Britain would likely remain clear, as Winds back Westerly. However, peripheral areas of Scandinavia could potentially be affected later by low-medium levels of ash contaminated air, mainly below FL200.



EI Premier

[Postman Plod]

Northerlies at the back end of the week - I would imagine that would be a possible indication of it getting worse if the eruption continues, however is a lot more dynamic than last year.

Metbrief - Met Office Analysis and Synoptic Weather Forecast Charts via Wetterzentrale

And don't shoot the messenger. Met Office were proved right time and time again regarding their ash forecasts, regardless of what the doubters and those with a commercial interest in continuing flying were saying, but Met Office (and NATS) weren't the ones closing the air space and they weren't the engine or airframe manufacturers advising no ash.

[22 Degree Halo]

Loganair is cancelling almost all its flights in Scotland on Thursday because of expected disruption caused by the ash cloud. Only inter-island routes in Orkney are unaffected.
A Loganair spokesman said Met Office forecasts indicated that a high density of ash would be present in large parts of Scottish airspace throughout Tuesday, clearing into Wednesday morning.
The UK's air traffic control service, Nats, said volcanic ash was forecast to affect parts of Scotland between 1800 BST and midnight on Monday.
Services may be affected from Barra, Benbecula and Tiree.

BBC News - UK flight disruption cannot be ruled out - CAA

[brakedwell]

I hope there aren't too many climate change "experts" advising VAAC

[Postman Plod]

Silly pointless question, but the answer none-the-less is - none.

[scr1]

Loganair have cancelled flights for tuesday morning

Press Office :: Travel Advice for 23 / 24 May - Loganair

here we go again

[EI Premier]

Northerlies at the back end of the week - I would imagine that would be a possible indication of it getting worse if the eruption continues, however is a lot more dynamic than last year.

It's all very dependant upon the main thrust of the Northerly flow however, which is not a true northerly in the sense, rather a northerly flow developing as Low Pressure tracks Eastward.

Meteociel - Cartes du modle numrique GFS pour l'Europe

As the latest 12Z GFS Operational Forecast indicates, it's quite possible that a southerly flow will be developing over Iceland as low pressure pushes up from the South, whilst the Northerly flow gradually clears the UK and Ireland.

The IAA have also announced that there will be no closure of Irish Airspace for at least 48 Hours.

[Airways B]

Airlines decision

UK Airspace WILL NOT close this time. The decision to Fly or not fly will be made by the airline provided they have an approved safety case to operate in designated ash densities.

CAA

• Areas of high, medium and low density ash will be identified using information provided by the Met Offices Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre. This is based on data provided from the source of the volcano, satellite, and weather balloons, as well as ground based instrumentation such as radar
• Information on the high and medium density zones will be communicated to the aviation industry by means of a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM)
• Any UK airline wishing to operate in areas of medium or high density ash, will need to have a safety case approved by the CAA. Many airlines already have such safety cases in place and agreed for medium density. None has so far submitted a safety case to operate in high density ash.
• A safety case sets out the measures airlines will put in place to mitigate the risk of flying through ash. They also include input from aircraft and engine manufacturers. Safety cases have been used by airlines for many years to set out how they will safely deal with other unusual or challenging issues.

[Heathrow Harry]

no - wind related - gusting over 60mph

[Nemrytter]

It certainly didn't happen, for example, with Mount St Helens in the USA some years ago

Different volcanos, different results. As several studies have shown, the ash from (unpronouncable volcano) last year was rather different to the ash from many other volcanos - it was much more likely to cause damage to anything flying through.

The expert immediately prefaced several statements with "we don't know". Well, dear, if we don't know, how can you present yourself as "the expert; this is a description of someone who does know.

I'd be much more wary of the person who says they do know, as they'd almost certainly be lying. As proven by the number of times I've been stuck in a rainstorm with no umbrella, meteorology is not a precise science - we do not know everything and there are uncertainties. A weather forecast is only a 'best estimate' of what will happen, it's not perfect.

Btw, I'd also imagine that everyone involved is unwilling to commit to cast-iron statements. I remember in the thread on here last year about the other volcano a number of people got quite angry when 'experts' gave their opinions...

[RoyHudd]

Bull....

I hope the "experts" are not referring to these pages. (Not an inclusive remark, but some stuff here is nonsense, which is only to be expected)

[Lemain]

I hope the "experts" are not referring to these pages. (Not an inclusive remark, but some stuff here is nonsense, which is only to be expected)

Perhaps, but what is really to be expected is for money to be more important than safety, as happened during last year's disruption. Usually, commercial aviation is comparatively immune to money issues when it comes to safety, but not with ash, eh?

From 'zero tolerance' to 'zero risk to aircraft' in a few days was quite eyebrow-raising!

[nippysweetie]

Well, regardless of what everyone thinks, BA and KLM are cancelling flights to Scotland tomorrow

[BOAC]

Would that be the same BA that declared there was no threat from the last ash cloud? Flew a Jumbo through it, didn't they.........................must be all right. I'm confused.

[golfyankeesierra]

BA and KLM are cancelling flights to Scotland tomorrow

tomorrowmorning