UPS Aircraft Down In Dubai
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a sign of a poor prior hazard analysis
It is a sad fact that a lot of the safety advancements made in aviation were as a response to learning the hard way. And try as we might to change this, it will inevitably continue to be the case, at least some of the time.
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Airline culture is SO frustrating.
We agree it was a poor analysis. We differ in that I expect a hazard analysis to actually identify the hazards (fire - didn't your mother warn you of that one?) and put remedial mitigations in place. You don't seem to have an expectation of success
.
You may have heard there is no smoke without fire. Well if there is a fire there is smoke and you need drills to deal with it.
The entire problem in the airline industry is most of you don't learn! You just dismiss the next accident as a surprise.
Anyone who does want to learn could do worse than start here
http://www.safeopsys.com/docs/SOS_SAFITA.pdf
And then apply a sensible hazard management process
http://www.ihst.org/portals/54/2010i...ny%20Cramp.pdf
We agree it was a poor analysis. We differ in that I expect a hazard analysis to actually identify the hazards (fire - didn't your mother warn you of that one?) and put remedial mitigations in place. You don't seem to have an expectation of success
.You may have heard there is no smoke without fire. Well if there is a fire there is smoke and you need drills to deal with it.
The entire problem in the airline industry is most of you don't learn! You just dismiss the next accident as a surprise.
Anyone who does want to learn could do worse than start here
http://www.safeopsys.com/docs/SOS_SAFITA.pdf
And then apply a sensible hazard management process
http://www.ihst.org/portals/54/2010i...ny%20Cramp.pdf
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A330 Freighter
The new A332F Freighter recommends, pack 1 off (pack 2 remains on), then open the outflow valves, whilst descending to FL 200 and allow the cabin to climb to 20000ft. This takes time, but consider you may be 180 minutes out to sea on an ETOPS flight when this all happens. We have 180 min ETOPS with this new A3302F.
That's too far out when when the main deck is getting hot, so I would do it definitely!
That's too far out when when the main deck is getting hot, so I would do it definitely!
Last edited by Jetjock330; 17th Oct 2010 at 17:49.
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Well if there is a fire there is smoke and you need drills to deal with it.
Logic would dictate that you put the fire out & then deal with any smoke. The problem arises when the smoke becomes a serious issue before you have finished dealing with the fire! Do you then stop the fire checklist half way through to deal with the smoke or persevere with the fire? If you stop the fire checklist to deal with the smoke, the fire may be generating too much smoke for the smoke removal procedure to deal with & the situation would then be getting rapidly out of control.
You just dismiss the next accident as a surprise
I don't know what the B744F systems are like - I haven't flown it. I don't know what Boeing considered & failed to consider (if anything) when designing the aircraft, as I wasn't there. But it is possible that so much effort was put into fire suppression that the effect on keeping smoke out of the cockpit was overlooked, or considered not relevant as it was thought that putting the fire out would solve the problem.
Some checklists are quite complicated & it is easy to make an error in the heat of the moment. It's bad enough in the simulator, but try to imagine what it would be like the circumstances of an actual fire with the threat to your well being. Perhaps an error was made. We'll know in due course.
I don't know much about fires either, but I do know that they can be very complex beasts & with the large variety of goods carried these days on freighter aircraft, perhaps not everything is known. I also know that companies trying to get their goods to market quickly have been, & continue to be, a little loose with their application of dangerous goods legislation.
Rest assured that most of the industry personel at the coal face are doing their level best to get it right & don't just dismiss accidents as a 'surprise', as you put it. Accidents, even those with no loss of life, are quite distressing to us in the industry. That is why we dissect them in every way possible in order to learn.
As far as we have come in this industry, there is still much that is not known & more than a few latent failures just waiting to strike.
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about depressurisation
I don't know how many divers there are among you. Me as a technical diver work under pressure everytime I dive 
First - partial pressures. Lets assume that there is roughly 1at of pressure on the surface of earth. So the partial pressure of oxygen is 0,21at in air compared to pure oxygene. If we go down in the water, then partial pressure increases. at the depth of 40m oxygene partial pressure would be 1,05at -it is like breathing a pure oxygene.
If we go up, then at FL450 air pressure is 0.151at. partial pressure of oxygene would be 0.03171at or it would be equivalent of air with 3,17% oxygene content on sea level. Almost nothing. That would retard fire considerably. How much, I couldn't tell. Perhaps there are firemen who know that.
What I know is that oxygene pressures should not drop below 0.16at for human to remain normally functional. Breathing pure oxygen should leave pilots concious if they are fit enough. But 0.15at is at the edge, some may feel hypoxia signs.
Yet there is another problem. There is a nitrogen part in the air we breathe. if surrounding pressure drops too quickly, nitrogen dissolved in our tissues starts to move out. If that process is quick enough, it causes small bubbles in tissues and bloodstream. Bubbles block small bloodvessels. It is called Decompression sickness. If severe enough, it could cause unconciousness in worst case as brain becomes oxygene deprivated due to the blocked capillaries. DCS could paralyse, cause pain, numbness, vision distortion etc. So it is not desired while piloting AC.
That is why, I think rapid descent to much lower level is necessary than it would be necessary because of oxygen issues.
At FL250 air pressure is 0,384at. with oxygene partial pressure 0.08at it is like breathing air with 8% oxygene content at sea level. That is not enough to remain concious. Breathing oxygene is a must. It is enough to breathe oxygene without pressurisation.
Compared to pressure maintained in the cabin during flight - 0.797at, 0.384 is a drop in pressure almost 2x . In diving this kind of quick change in ambient pressures normally does not cause DCS.
Hope this help.
First - partial pressures. Lets assume that there is roughly 1at of pressure on the surface of earth. So the partial pressure of oxygen is 0,21at in air compared to pure oxygene. If we go down in the water, then partial pressure increases. at the depth of 40m oxygene partial pressure would be 1,05at -it is like breathing a pure oxygene.
If we go up, then at FL450 air pressure is 0.151at. partial pressure of oxygene would be 0.03171at or it would be equivalent of air with 3,17% oxygene content on sea level. Almost nothing. That would retard fire considerably. How much, I couldn't tell. Perhaps there are firemen who know that.
What I know is that oxygene pressures should not drop below 0.16at for human to remain normally functional. Breathing pure oxygen should leave pilots concious if they are fit enough. But 0.15at is at the edge, some may feel hypoxia signs.
Yet there is another problem. There is a nitrogen part in the air we breathe. if surrounding pressure drops too quickly, nitrogen dissolved in our tissues starts to move out. If that process is quick enough, it causes small bubbles in tissues and bloodstream. Bubbles block small bloodvessels. It is called Decompression sickness. If severe enough, it could cause unconciousness in worst case as brain becomes oxygene deprivated due to the blocked capillaries. DCS could paralyse, cause pain, numbness, vision distortion etc. So it is not desired while piloting AC.
That is why, I think rapid descent to much lower level is necessary than it would be necessary because of oxygen issues.
At FL250 air pressure is 0,384at. with oxygene partial pressure 0.08at it is like breathing air with 8% oxygene content at sea level. That is not enough to remain concious. Breathing oxygene is a must. It is enough to breathe oxygene without pressurisation.
Compared to pressure maintained in the cabin during flight - 0.797at, 0.384 is a drop in pressure almost 2x . In diving this kind of quick change in ambient pressures normally does not cause DCS.
Hope this help.
Last edited by Prada; 30th Oct 2010 at 20:15.
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Mainsail
Morning All
My field of expertise is Hazardous Cargo in the shipping industry not the airline industry, so this may seem a stupid question, and I hope somebody will clarify.
Goods packed in sealed containers on the ground have a pressure of 15psi
8000ft pressure is 11psi, effective internal pressure in sealed container 4psi
25000ft pressure is 5psi, effective internal pressure in sealed container 10psi
35000ft pressure is 3psi, effective internal pressure in sealed container 12psi.
My question is how good are the seals on bottles, drums, jerrycans etc. obviously if they are certified for air transport they are good for 4psi. plus a safety margin.
I am reasonably confident that most containers would not burst at these pressures , but I have some doubts about the caps on drums etc.
Anybody have any figures for pressure testing?
Regards
Mike
My field of expertise is Hazardous Cargo in the shipping industry not the airline industry, so this may seem a stupid question, and I hope somebody will clarify.
Goods packed in sealed containers on the ground have a pressure of 15psi
8000ft pressure is 11psi, effective internal pressure in sealed container 4psi
25000ft pressure is 5psi, effective internal pressure in sealed container 10psi
35000ft pressure is 3psi, effective internal pressure in sealed container 12psi.
My question is how good are the seals on bottles, drums, jerrycans etc. obviously if they are certified for air transport they are good for 4psi. plus a safety margin.
I am reasonably confident that most containers would not burst at these pressures , but I have some doubts about the caps on drums etc.
Anybody have any figures for pressure testing?
Regards
Mike
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Less hair
Dailies in Dubai actually claim a possible connection of the UPS crash to the terror plot that was foiled last week, actually say that similar explosive device found on Friday at the DXB FedEx facility and on a UPS plane at a UK airport
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Connection
I am totally amazed that in today's speculative press, the obvious potential for a connection between the UPS crash and the recent events with bombs on board freighters has not been made so far. If nothing else, increased security vigilance may have prevented the devices getting on board, or at least made the terrorists re-think their plans?
CM
CM
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I am totally amazed that in today's speculative press, the obvious potential for a connection between the UPS crash and the recent events with bombs on board freighters has not been made so far.
The GCAA points out there was no audible CVR indication of an initial onboard explosion on UPS 6 but as the Times Square bombing recently showed, a dud bomb can start a fire instead.
I don't claim to know the answer as to whether the UPS aircraft events are related but the coincidence is certainly unusual.
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Shell Management
When fire fighting water does not cvool the fire out it turns to steam and the steam seperates the fire from oxygen. Foam more directly forms a physical barrier.
I see Boeing's notice came after the accident, a sign of a poorprior hazard analysis.
I see Boeing's notice came after the accident, a sign of a poorprior hazard analysis.
Airline culture is SO frustrating.
We agree it was a poor analysis. We differ in that I expect a hazard analysis to actually identify the hazards (fire - didn't your mother warn you of that one?) and put remedial mitigations in place. You don't seem to have an expectation of success.
You may have heard there is no smoke without fire. Well if there is a fire there is smoke and you need drills to deal with it.
The entire problem in the airline industry is most of you don't learn! You just dismiss the next accident as a surprise.
We agree it was a poor analysis. We differ in that I expect a hazard analysis to actually identify the hazards (fire - didn't your mother warn you of that one?) and put remedial mitigations in place. You don't seem to have an expectation of success.
You may have heard there is no smoke without fire. Well if there is a fire there is smoke and you need drills to deal with it.
The entire problem in the airline industry is most of you don't learn! You just dismiss the next accident as a surprise.
Allow me to quote from a 747-400 QRH dated 1st October 2001 (Pax Version)
Later updates for the -400F and -400BCF have.........SET 25,000 FEET
And other minor differences
----------------------------------
FIRE CARGO
Message: FIRE CARGO FWD..........or..........FIRE CARGO AFT
-> LAND AT NEAREST SUITABLE AIRFIELD
-> (Gound Fire Procedures - not relevant here)
CARGO FIRE ARM SWITCH (FWD or AFT)...................ARM
* Pack 3 shuts down
PACK 3 CONTROL SELECTOR....................................OFF
PACK 1 or 2 CONTROL SELECTOR..............................OFF
* Maximum 1 pack on
CARGO FIRE DISCHARGE SWITCH............................PUSH
LANDING ALTITUDE SWITCH...................................MAN
LANDING ALTITUDE CONTROL..................SET 8,000 FEET
* Prevents penetration of smoke to cabin
* 195 minutes of fire suppression available
Message: FIRE CARGO FWD..........or..........FIRE CARGO AFT
-> LAND AT NEAREST SUITABLE AIRFIELD
-> (Gound Fire Procedures - not relevant here)
CARGO FIRE ARM SWITCH (FWD or AFT)...................ARM
* Pack 3 shuts down
PACK 3 CONTROL SELECTOR....................................OFF
PACK 1 or 2 CONTROL SELECTOR..............................OFF
* Maximum 1 pack on
CARGO FIRE DISCHARGE SWITCH............................PUSH
LANDING ALTITUDE SWITCH...................................MAN
LANDING ALTITUDE CONTROL..................SET 8,000 FEET
* Prevents penetration of smoke to cabin
* 195 minutes of fire suppression available
Boeing's latest words on the subject are a reminder.
(Rather like the 737 Rad Alt reminder after Amsterdam)
Regarding any link between this incident and the more recent discovery of explosives in cargo shipments: it is being looked into, according to the US deputy security advisor:
Dubai says no blast in September UPS plane crash - World News | Tri-City Herald : Mid-Columbia news
Dubai authorities ruled out "an explosion" or "detonation" - but then the Xmas Bomber of last year (tied to the Yemeni group suspected in the most recent explosive shipments) also failed to "explode" - simply set himself on fire. A bomb that fizzles can still ignite flammable surroundings. In his case, clothing. In a cargo plane....?
A possibility worth investigating? - yes. A probability? Not yet.
Dubai says no blast in September UPS plane crash - World News | Tri-City Herald : Mid-Columbia news
Dubai authorities ruled out "an explosion" or "detonation" - but then the Xmas Bomber of last year (tied to the Yemeni group suspected in the most recent explosive shipments) also failed to "explode" - simply set himself on fire. A bomb that fizzles can still ignite flammable surroundings. In his case, clothing. In a cargo plane....?
A possibility worth investigating? - yes. A probability? Not yet.
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According German Magazine SPIEGEL AL-QUAIDA proclaims to be resposible for the UPS crash.
Terror: Al-Qaida bekennt sich zu Jemen-Paketbomben - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Politik
Terror: Al-Qaida bekennt sich zu Jemen-Paketbomben - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Politik
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For the sake of Doug and Matt's families as well as all crews both civilian and cargo ( my hubby) and their families, I hope they are bluffing. I am having a harder time as I drop him off now. I am glad however that this claim came late and after Matt and Doug's bodies were released from the UAE as this would have only delayed it even longer. I know in my heart that if this does happen while my husband is at the controls, he will have died doing what he loves but it will really suck that these bastards determined his fate.
The only benefit of this claim is the hope that cargo both freight and pax will be more scrutinized, inspected and intercepted. Especially out of the UAE.
Where is martial law when you need it ?
The only benefit of this claim is the hope that cargo both freight and pax will be more scrutinized, inspected and intercepted. Especially out of the UAE.
Where is martial law when you need it ?
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Lets not link Al Qaida to the tragic accident in Dubai.
Remember it took weeks for OBL to 'admit' to having been in charge of 9/11, and many people still believe he was.