Ash clouds threaten air traffic
I expect that the insurance companies don't really have much of a say.
It would be impossible for them to examine and risk-assess each and every flight every day and in all conditions, so the only practical way would be for them to cover all flights 'provided they are being operated "in accordance the regulations in force".
It's very unlikely that they have any form of veto.
If heavens forbid something went wrong they might try to recover losses from the authorities _if_ they could prove they were negligent in setting the regulations.
It would be impossible for them to examine and risk-assess each and every flight every day and in all conditions, so the only practical way would be for them to cover all flights 'provided they are being operated "in accordance the regulations in force".
It's very unlikely that they have any form of veto.
If heavens forbid something went wrong they might try to recover losses from the authorities _if_ they could prove they were negligent in setting the regulations.
So its not so much a veto as an aircraft is uninsurable until its been completely inspected and repaired - probably after EVERY flight. And its not just the engines, volcanic dust screws electronics as well.
Insurance companies cannot blame authorities for opening or closing the airspace, its the airlines who would be ignoring the manufactures guidelines and the airlines a who will bear the cost if they deliberately ignored them.
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BA have gone quiet
Interesting after BA made a lot of noise about the lack of ANY effects of the flights through the ash they've grounded their fleet, probably a good reason
On plane finder this morning Amsterdam is very busy with aircraft. So is northern France and traffic is transiting the French side of the channel at altitudes down to 20,000ft.
These areas are right in the red zone according to the latest Vaac maps, ash down to surface level. So why are these aircraft not falling out of the sky? Could it be that someone has made a huge mistake, just because "that's what the book said"?
Someone needs to have their balls felt for this, and not in a good way.
These areas are right in the red zone according to the latest Vaac maps, ash down to surface level. So why are these aircraft not falling out of the sky? Could it be that someone has made a huge mistake, just because "that's what the book said"?
Someone needs to have their balls felt for this, and not in a good way.
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Hi,
BBC News - European airports start to reopen for flights
there is no timer on this volcano 
BBC News - European airports start to reopen for flights
But British Airways says it has cancelled all short-haul flights, after the UK air traffic control body, Nats, warned of more volcanic ash.
A US official said on Monday a Nato F-16 fighter jet had suffered engine damage after flying through the volcanic ash cloud.
EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht said the bloc's economy would suffer badly if the disruption continued for a long time.
"What makes me a little bit afraid is that there is no timer on this volcano," he told news agency Reuters.
"What makes me a little bit afraid is that there is no timer on this volcano," he told news agency Reuters.
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Translation: "the cost of the shutdown has now exceeded the cost of a downed aircraft so its time to get back to work - at least until the first one comes down".
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What I find curious is that not one of the many that have flown through "the zone" seem to have published borescope results, or oil spectronalysis results, both of which are eminently do-able.
Will the CAA require aircraft that have traversed the suspect zone perform hidden damage checks as they would, for instance, in a heavy landing incident?
What are the implications of unnoticed/unreported encounters, and the IFSD rate especially for ETOPS?
Will the CAA require aircraft that have traversed the suspect zone perform hidden damage checks as they would, for instance, in a heavy landing incident?
What are the implications of unnoticed/unreported encounters, and the IFSD rate especially for ETOPS?
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All these comments about aircraft not falling out of the sky, do none of you consider the long term prospects, just becuase it is not having an effect today does not mean that long term exposure will not have effects in weeks/months.
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BASED ON THE VAAC ADVISORY TIMED 0000Z APRIL 20TH THE SCOTTISH
FIR/UIR OUTSIDE OF THE CONTAMINATED AREA WILL OPEN AT 0600Z APRIL
20TH. THE LONDON FIR/UIR REMAINS ZERO RATED BELOW FL200 UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.
So thats why you can see panes above FL200 over England.
FIR/UIR OUTSIDE OF THE CONTAMINATED AREA WILL OPEN AT 0600Z APRIL
20TH. THE LONDON FIR/UIR REMAINS ZERO RATED BELOW FL200 UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.
So thats why you can see panes above FL200 over England.
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GA taking advantage of this situation?
As we all know, contrary to what they say on the news, the airspace isn't 'closed'. Just that IFR clearances aren't being given in affected areas.
As it's VMC pretty well all over Europe I would imagine the Air Taxi operators and Biz jets that aren't stuck on the ground in Class A airspace should be doing good business. But I'm not hearing that is the case. Why is that?
As it's VMC pretty well all over Europe I would imagine the Air Taxi operators and Biz jets that aren't stuck on the ground in Class A airspace should be doing good business. But I'm not hearing that is the case. Why is that?
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UK plc starting to look a bit daft now
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French airspace
An ATR42 equipped with special probes took off on Monday from Toulouse-Francazal towards Montpellier to take air samples.
More flights scheduled on Tuesday further north.
A second aircraft, a Falcon 20 is due to conduct more tests.
Aircraft equipped by SAFIRE and the CNRS ( FRench national research and science center)
Reacting to national critics, according to scientists, such experiments usually take 6 months preparation and quote:
"We are not a quick response team, usually such experiments are prepared 6 months in advance".
We might know what 's up there ! ( finally...)
More flights scheduled on Tuesday further north.
A second aircraft, a Falcon 20 is due to conduct more tests.
Aircraft equipped by SAFIRE and the CNRS ( FRench national research and science center)
Reacting to national critics, according to scientists, such experiments usually take 6 months preparation and quote:
"We are not a quick response team, usually such experiments are prepared 6 months in advance".
We might know what 's up there ! ( finally...)
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Of the over 100 historical ash encounters only 8 involved immediate engine malfunctions. Just 8%! and that involved some pretty heavy ash.
Statistically there are not going to be that many aircraft "dropping like flies".
On the other hand there seems to be some evidence that hot section deterioration can be the result of "invisible" dust. Therein lies the proverbial rub. The implication is that there might be some compromised turbines that could fail catastrophically at a later date,100 hrs, 500 hrs, who knows?
Statistically there are not going to be that many aircraft "dropping like flies".
On the other hand there seems to be some evidence that hot section deterioration can be the result of "invisible" dust. Therein lies the proverbial rub. The implication is that there might be some compromised turbines that could fail catastrophically at a later date,100 hrs, 500 hrs, who knows?
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1989 KLM sudden silence over Alaska
Breezy DC quotes the KLM encounter with ash in 1989 near Anchorage.
On entering cloud, ash/smoke entered cabin. Crew used MAXIMUM POWER TO CLIMB. One minute later all engines lost power.
Boeing recommends DESCENDING 180 degree turn, as maximum power climb seems to provoke failure.....
On entering cloud, ash/smoke entered cabin. Crew used MAXIMUM POWER TO CLIMB. One minute later all engines lost power.
Boeing recommends DESCENDING 180 degree turn, as maximum power climb seems to provoke failure.....
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do none of you consider the long term prospects, just becuase it is not having an effect today does not mean that long term exposure will not have effects in weeks/months.
routine oil analysis..
routine borescope inspections..
LLP limits..
hot section intervals..
engine trend monitoring...
egt reports..
etc etc
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With 20 or so volcanoes active at any one time, ash clouds like this must occur all round the world especially in the area of the ring of fire. Yet in all my years flying round the world I have never seen such an over reaction. I am all for safety first but I can't help thinking this is becoming a face saving exercise by those who have made this incredible decision to close the airspace.
What I really don't understand is why manufacturers and those who are making the decisions are not pouring money and time in to getting some solid scientific data on the effect of this type of ash on the aircraft. Get some test aircraft up there instead of leaving it to the airlines.
The long term impact on the economy is going to be huge if this goes on much longer and not just for the airlines! Time the Governments got of their arses and started to get some facts instead of relying on poor science, nobody knows how this cloud will effect aircraft it appears.
They keep trotting out the same stories including the BA flight that hit the plume of a volcano some years ago but fail to mention the ash cloud they flew into was very close to the volcano and the ash was altogether different and more dense.
So my message to those in charge is get your fingers out and go get some facts instead of speculation based on poor science or worse no science.
What I really don't understand is why manufacturers and those who are making the decisions are not pouring money and time in to getting some solid scientific data on the effect of this type of ash on the aircraft. Get some test aircraft up there instead of leaving it to the airlines.
The long term impact on the economy is going to be huge if this goes on much longer and not just for the airlines! Time the Governments got of their arses and started to get some facts instead of relying on poor science, nobody knows how this cloud will effect aircraft it appears.
They keep trotting out the same stories including the BA flight that hit the plume of a volcano some years ago but fail to mention the ash cloud they flew into was very close to the volcano and the ash was altogether different and more dense.
So my message to those in charge is get your fingers out and go get some facts instead of speculation based on poor science or worse no science.
Last edited by kinsman; 20th Apr 2010 at 08:36.
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Latest from NATS
Statement on Icelandic volcanic eruption: Tuesday April 20, 0900
The situation regarding the volcanic eruption in Iceland remains dynamic and the latest information from the Met Office shows that the situation today will continue to be variable.
Based on the latest Met Office information, part of Scottish airspace including Aberdeen, Inverness and Edinburgh airports will continue to be available from 1300-1900 today, and also south to Newcastle Airport. Restrictions will remain in place over the rest of UK airspace below 20,000ft.
Overnight the CAA, in line with new guidance from the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) decided flights above the ash cloud will be permitted in the UK; between 1300-1900 this will enable aircraft movements above 20,000ft in UK airspace.
We will continue to monitor Met Office information and the situation is likely to change during the course of the day. We will make a further statement at approximately 1500.
NATS is maintaining close dialogue with the Met Office and with the UK's safety regulator, the CAA, in respect of the international civil aviation policy we follow in applying restrictions to use of airspace.
We are working closely with Government, airports and airlines, and airframe and aero engine manufacturers to get a better understanding of the effects of the ash cloud and to seek solutions.
The situation regarding the volcanic eruption in Iceland remains dynamic and the latest information from the Met Office shows that the situation today will continue to be variable.
Based on the latest Met Office information, part of Scottish airspace including Aberdeen, Inverness and Edinburgh airports will continue to be available from 1300-1900 today, and also south to Newcastle Airport. Restrictions will remain in place over the rest of UK airspace below 20,000ft.
Overnight the CAA, in line with new guidance from the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) decided flights above the ash cloud will be permitted in the UK; between 1300-1900 this will enable aircraft movements above 20,000ft in UK airspace.
We will continue to monitor Met Office information and the situation is likely to change during the course of the day. We will make a further statement at approximately 1500.
NATS is maintaining close dialogue with the Met Office and with the UK's safety regulator, the CAA, in respect of the international civil aviation policy we follow in applying restrictions to use of airspace.
We are working closely with Government, airports and airlines, and airframe and aero engine manufacturers to get a better understanding of the effects of the ash cloud and to seek solutions.
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Some people just do not listen, do they?
The vulcanologists have clearly stated that this eruption is unusual in the content of its ash and the dispersal pattern. Several aircraft have suffered clearly photographed damage that allowed the engines to run, but would have resulted in failure after cumulative exposure.
Whatever is happening in continental Europe is not necessarily appropriate for the UK - look at the dispersal pattern and you'll see the plume comes down straight over the UK before it starts to spread east and west, becoming vastly thinner in the process of that divergence - it would be reasonable to assume from that map, if it's sufficiently accurate, that the ash is far denser over the UK than over continental Europe.
How many airlines will boroscope all of their engines after each flight, or even each night? It's not likely to be the first day of operation that will see problems, but later in the week if there is a big threat. Those of you claiming that the lack of engine failures this morning are showing a complete lack of technical understanding of the issue. The experts are unanimously stating there is a risk - it is only the airline managers and the uninformed media and public crying foul.
There seems to have been very little co-ordination or political will to get on top of the situation to determine definitively if ops are safe, but in the lack of that determination, the restrictions are not unreasonable.
The vulcanologists have clearly stated that this eruption is unusual in the content of its ash and the dispersal pattern. Several aircraft have suffered clearly photographed damage that allowed the engines to run, but would have resulted in failure after cumulative exposure.
Whatever is happening in continental Europe is not necessarily appropriate for the UK - look at the dispersal pattern and you'll see the plume comes down straight over the UK before it starts to spread east and west, becoming vastly thinner in the process of that divergence - it would be reasonable to assume from that map, if it's sufficiently accurate, that the ash is far denser over the UK than over continental Europe.
How many airlines will boroscope all of their engines after each flight, or even each night? It's not likely to be the first day of operation that will see problems, but later in the week if there is a big threat. Those of you claiming that the lack of engine failures this morning are showing a complete lack of technical understanding of the issue. The experts are unanimously stating there is a risk - it is only the airline managers and the uninformed media and public crying foul.
There seems to have been very little co-ordination or political will to get on top of the situation to determine definitively if ops are safe, but in the lack of that determination, the restrictions are not unreasonable.
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Bruce Wayne
Not sure that everyone does oil analysis, particularly for S, which was the only abnormal in the NASA incident.
How often are "routine" borescope checks done?
The recorded engine parameters used for ECM showed no abnormalities in the NASA incident. Surprisingly even during the event nothing abnormal showed on cockpit instrumentation. They operated for a further 68 hrs before damage was noticed.
Not sure that everyone does oil analysis, particularly for S, which was the only abnormal in the NASA incident.
How often are "routine" borescope checks done?
The recorded engine parameters used for ECM showed no abnormalities in the NASA incident. Surprisingly even during the event nothing abnormal showed on cockpit instrumentation. They operated for a further 68 hrs before damage was noticed.