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Ash clouds threaten air traffic

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Old 11th May 2010, 17:19
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It must be costing the airlines a small fortune taking the additional routing to cross the Atlantic. I saw an A332 aircraft of TAP for the first time today over Scotland flying from Newark to Oporto, way north of its normal route.
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Old 11th May 2010, 17:28
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Just seen Aeromexico from Madrid to Cancun fly over Cardiff northbound on RadarVirtuel. Funny old world!!!
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Old 11th May 2010, 18:05
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How long before we see an "Ash Charge" applied to airfares?
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Old 11th May 2010, 18:13
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How much did you have to pay FR to buy her back?

What is this, a Jet Blast spin-off thread, or are we going there next ;-) ?

Serious question: anyone got an updated meteo chart showing forecast ash cloud over S. Europe for tomorrow - 12.5.2010, before I trundle down to the airport one more time ?
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Old 11th May 2010, 18:32
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Ash update, the big black area over the Atlantic seems to be thinning.

Met Office: Icelandic volcano - Ash concentration charts
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Old 11th May 2010, 18:53
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Still rather large in size though, the volcano still active and with the low pressure on its way in to drag it all back over us (UK)
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Old 11th May 2010, 19:01
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I complained earlier about the inadequate size of the charts we were peering at - so I'm very happy to applaud the Met Office for the Eastern Atlantic/European charts that have appeared.

Met Office: Icelandic volcano - Zoom air ash concentration charts
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Old 11th May 2010, 19:29
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Originally Posted by OFSO
How much did you have to pay FR to buy her back?
What is this, a Jet Blast spin-off thread, or are we going there next ;-) ?
Let's admit it...there were moments where the ash saga was farcical enough to merit being transferred to JB....
Serious question: anyone got an updated meteo chart showing forecast ash cloud over S. Europe for tomorrow - 12.5.2010, before I trundle down to the airport one more time ?
Serious answer. Sepp's link to bigger-scale maps is most welcome. Girona should be OK, unless the AENA adds on another buffer zone.

CJ

Last edited by ChristiaanJ; 11th May 2010 at 20:47.
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Old 11th May 2010, 20:39
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One might mention the obvious fact that just because the dreaded Ash Cloud is not over one's departure airport, it doesn't mean your aircraft will either arrive or depart.......as was the case with the i/c 738 to depart from GRO as FR9008 today. Came in an hour late, was advised to stay below FL19 on departure, but in the end FR9008 never departed at all.

Ryanair's own website showed the flight as cancelled, but a forlorn passenger in my car on the way home accessed 'arrivals' on Gatwick's computer which showed FR9008 landing on time in the UK. Most wry.
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Old 11th May 2010, 20:48
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Spatial distribution of volcanic ash plume
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Old 11th May 2010, 20:54
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Tomorrow's midday chart shows 'almost nothing' emerging from the volcano. Has it quietened down?

I was intrigued today to discover that the task of producing the charts is assigned to the VACC in which the volcano is located. The London VACC is actually a very small one, consisting of Iceland and the British Isles, full stop.

The rest of Europe, all of Africa, the Middle East, half of Russia and even India, falls within the Toulouse VACC. But as it's not 'their' volcano, they can only play a secondary, advisory role to London. Even though it's 'their' airspace which is being closed. Remarkable too that the London VACC charts showed no-fly zones in France at the weekend which the French, acting on their own data which included test flights by Air France, chose not to implement.
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Old 11th May 2010, 21:41
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"Tomorrow's midday chart shows 'almost nothing' emerging from the volcano. Has it quietened down?"

Definitely hasn't quitened down, in fact the eruption became more explosive again this afternoon. There's some very usefull updates about the eruption on the Iceland Met Office website.

I suspect that the low pressure over Iceland tomorrow and the associated calm winds will cause the plume to gather and spread over the eruption site rather than being blown out to sea as we've been seeing previously. It'll be interesting to see how the passing depression re distributes the ash cloud
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Old 12th May 2010, 00:38
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It may not have quietened down but yesterdays report suggested
Tephra fallout: Ashfall reported at Drangshlíð and Skarðshlíð almost continuously for the last 24 hours. The ash is rather coarse, estimated by the farmers to be ~2-3 mm.
Very different from the early very fine ash!

Last edited by BillS; 12th May 2010 at 01:19. Reason: added link
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Old 12th May 2010, 07:29
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Remarkable too that the London VACC charts showed no-fly zones in France at the weekend which the French, acting on their own data which included test flights by Air France, chose not to implement.
France did implement a no fly zone, so I suspect they were simply asleep, rather than remarkable.
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Old 12th May 2010, 13:55
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From sat24.com:
Wind changed from NorthEast to NorthWest since a few hours and new plume heading towards Faroer and Scotland. Over Scotland within 24 hours if speed remains. Interesting to know what's gonna happen then.
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Old 12th May 2010, 14:05
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Ash Cloud

Can I just ask someone to recap a few points for me as the goal posts seem to change daily.

1/ The charts are a bit like the TV game Bullseye! Stay out of the black and stay in the red you get nothing in this game for two in a bed as in is the black a total total no go zone and the red is go at your own risk?.

2/Why was the altitude of SFC to 20000 chosen and not higher or lower ?

3/Is 20000 some magic height that the industry has chosen or is it based on average ash height etc?

4/Are airspace closures for all flights or just commerical flights?

5/ Has the same type of airspace closures happened anywhere else outside Europe/North Africa??
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Old 12th May 2010, 14:41
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Just to add to question 1/ above, how long can you stay in the red for? briefly? can you hold in it? surely accumulative damage starts to play a part..
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Old 12th May 2010, 16:44
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TRANSATLANTIC No fly Zones

Can someone from an airline planning dept or ATC please explain what is going on to a confused SLF like myself.

In the last few days a number of transatlantic flights to and from Spain have been routing North South and vv across the UK going up towards 60 North no doubt to avoid the ash cloud. One day AA's MAD- JFK B767 was even reported as going over NE over Cherbourg, London and Ipswich before turning NW over the N Sea and then running parallel to the UK East Coast about 100 miles offshore. Also reported N-S or vv over the UK are transatlantic TAP flights and Aeromexico/ Mexicana flights from Madrid.

At the same time most AF transatlantics, along with KL and LH (both ETOPS twins and 747s) seem to have been routing North just off the Noreweigan coast

During all this disruption, a small number of transatlantic flights mostly BA have been reported as coming off the Ocean / going oceanic over Cork and Shannon.

If the ash cloud area was stopping all these other flights going on their normal "best route", how come these flights seemed to come through the affected area.

Any explanation gratefully received!

Suzeman
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Old 12th May 2010, 17:24
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I would guess, altitude. Waiting at GRN yesterday for flight to leave, (and it was subsequently cancelled due to 'volcanic ash cloud' starting at FL20) we could hear and see trans-continental aircraft flying way overhead, where we live that's usually the Paris CdG to Africa run, obviously above the top level of the cloud at FL30.
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Old 12th May 2010, 18:28
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dublindispatch:
Is 20000 some magic height that the industry has chosen or is it based on average ash height etc?
'The industry' has little or no input to this process - more's the pity.
Ifit can be convinced that this process is scientifically valid (which at the moment is not the case), 'the industry' would rather have charts with more and probably different altitude segments, to help them make their own operational (not commercial) judgement about whether to fly under, over or around.
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