Ash clouds threaten air traffic
Bringer of Wx
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Just spotted Wee Wille and co on their confidence-building/lobbying/PR/'test'/ whatever jaunt from LHR to CWL:
The a/c approaching the NW tip of France are a trio of Condor B76s out of FRA on their way to the Caribbean. VA layer is on in this pic.
The a/c approaching the NW tip of France are a trio of Condor B76s out of FRA on their way to the Caribbean. VA layer is on in this pic.
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This is a manageable risk.
Just like all the other manageable risks I take everyday.
Now can I get back in my aeroplane.
I'll take on the competition anyday, it's my management I can't beat
Just like all the other manageable risks I take everyday.
Now can I get back in my aeroplane.
I'll take on the competition anyday, it's my management I can't beat
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According to a weather forecast on TV this afternoon, there is a STORM brewing in the North Atlantic which should bring strong south westerly winds west of Ireland by Wednesday pm. It is anticipated that the ash clouds could be blown well north of European airspace
My guess is that it will be sorted by then, some new maps and some new rules should see things getting back into the air for most before the end of tomorrow.
My guess is that it will be sorted by then, some new maps and some new rules should see things getting back into the air for most before the end of tomorrow.
20:41 GMT. Something sailed past my house on short finals to 12 at Cardiff. Too dark to make it out clearly, but maybe not a 747. Either 777 or 737, judging by the shape of it. Hard to tell the size since it is dark and everything seems to appear smaller in daylight, according to my wife.
10,000 hours of 757 and 767, before you ask
10,000 hours of 757 and 767, before you ask
Lompaseo:
Commenting on shortening the lives of turbine blades.
It's not a "long term issue" at all. If blade life is severely compromised, for example the DC* blades went from 1000 hours to 100 hours, you are going to get 4000++ hot section overhauls all arriving at once instead of over a period of years.
There is simply not the manufacturing capacity in the world to make the blades and vanes, let alone the maintenance capacity, if a significant chunk of the worlds aircraft population gets their engines compromised. We carry the minimum of spares these days. There is no magic warehouse full of spare engines, let alone sets of blades and vanes.
You can produce a very short term fix today if you run your engines in dirty air, but you are creating a monumental problem in the following months and years if they are damaged...
Commenting on shortening the lives of turbine blades.
This is a long term business consideration in decision making and not a short term concern to salvaging your current customer base
To put it another way, the operators already make decisions like this on a real time basis everyday.
Perhaps we can revisit this months from now.
To put it another way, the operators already make decisions like this on a real time basis everyday.
Perhaps we can revisit this months from now.
There is simply not the manufacturing capacity in the world to make the blades and vanes, let alone the maintenance capacity, if a significant chunk of the worlds aircraft population gets their engines compromised. We carry the minimum of spares these days. There is no magic warehouse full of spare engines, let alone sets of blades and vanes.
You can produce a very short term fix today if you run your engines in dirty air, but you are creating a monumental problem in the following months and years if they are damaged...
Beady Eye
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Sunfish:
Take fully on board your comments, however it is probable now that operators are entering squeeky bum time and need to get some revenues in fast to balance some already poor looking books.
For those in that situation, surely that weighs more heavily on their minds compared to the cost of fan blades.
Just the way it is and this is now a real battle of commercial verses safety.
Take fully on board your comments, however it is probable now that operators are entering squeeky bum time and need to get some revenues in fast to balance some already poor looking books.
For those in that situation, surely that weighs more heavily on their minds compared to the cost of fan blades.
Just the way it is and this is now a real battle of commercial verses safety.
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NATS Update
Nats website looks to have been updated with a release at 21:00
Statement on Icelandic volcanic eruption: Sunday April 18, 2100
Based on the latest information from the Met Office, NATS advises that the current restrictions across UK controlled airspace due to the volcanic ash cloud will remain in place until at least 1900 (local time) on Monday 19 April.
So empty skies in the UK for another day then...
Statement on Icelandic volcanic eruption: Sunday April 18, 2100
Based on the latest information from the Met Office, NATS advises that the current restrictions across UK controlled airspace due to the volcanic ash cloud will remain in place until at least 1900 (local time) on Monday 19 April.
So empty skies in the UK for another day then...
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Just because some of 'the big boys' have put up a couple of 'test aircraft', it doesn't mean that every European government is going to suddenly relax its no-fly areas 'toute de suite'.
"Oh well that's OK then, what WERE we worrying about?"
Cash-wise, everyone's screwed.
Eurocontrol's comments will be taken into consideration while individual governments conduct their own tests and, only then, make a decision.
... which will NOT be 'toute de suite'.
"Oh well that's OK then, what WERE we worrying about?"
Cash-wise, everyone's screwed.
Eurocontrol's comments will be taken into consideration while individual governments conduct their own tests and, only then, make a decision.
... which will NOT be 'toute de suite'.
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Positive news...
The following is quoted from http://www.flysas.com/en
Update: April 18, 2010 21:21 CET regarding SAS US flights 18-19 of April
SAS Scandinavian Airlines would like to inform its customers that all its US to Scandinavia flights today, April 18, will depart as scheduled. All five scheduled flights will arrive in Scandinavia tomorrow morning. Only customers with original bookings or who have been informed that they are waitlisted for these flights should go to the airport.
Following flights will be diverted to Oslo:
SK910, New York-Copenhagen will be diverted to Oslo
SK926, Washington DC-Copenhagen will be diverted to Oslo
Following flights will arrive in Stockholm, if the airspace has been opened up:
SK904, New York-Stockholm
SK946, Chicago-Stockholm
If Stockholm airspace has not been opened up, these flights will also be diverted to Oslo.
The following flight will be diverted to Gothenburg or Oslo, pending airspace regulations:
SK944, Chicago-Copenhagen
Update: April 18, 2010 21:21 CET regarding SAS US flights 18-19 of April
SAS Scandinavian Airlines would like to inform its customers that all its US to Scandinavia flights today, April 18, will depart as scheduled. All five scheduled flights will arrive in Scandinavia tomorrow morning. Only customers with original bookings or who have been informed that they are waitlisted for these flights should go to the airport.
Following flights will be diverted to Oslo:
SK910, New York-Copenhagen will be diverted to Oslo
SK926, Washington DC-Copenhagen will be diverted to Oslo
Following flights will arrive in Stockholm, if the airspace has been opened up:
SK904, New York-Stockholm
SK946, Chicago-Stockholm
If Stockholm airspace has not been opened up, these flights will also be diverted to Oslo.
The following flight will be diverted to Gothenburg or Oslo, pending airspace regulations:
SK944, Chicago-Copenhagen
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No, NATS is only the ANSP for the UK, not anywhere else in Europe never mind the rest of the world.
BD
BD
You forgot the bit about "and as far as 30 deg. West across the Atlantic"
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...anwick_Map.PNG
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SMS at EU level
I don't wanna sound too "smart", but this whole thing is like out of the ICAO SMS manual.
Risk - volcanic eruption/ ever present ash (yet it's an unknown due to no info on concentration)
Consequence - worst case scenario (think logically for yourself what might happen to the a/c, not necessary a burning hole in the ground)
can we eliminate the risk - no!
can we stop our operations - nope (too much on the table, I'm speaking about states' economies and politics, not only the aviation industry)
So - know the risks (analyze them), plan for and implement risk mitigation.activities.
So what will be the EU risk mitigation activities? Should we expect a harmonized approach? When in reality states' economies to some extent are dependent on their own aviation industry? I doubt it.
With all respect to the EU regulatory bodies and their desperate attempts to come up with performance scheme and targets for the whole EU aviation industry (sounds insane to me).....and many other initiatives. to unite (towards monopolies, lets be frank about it)..., this is such a slap into face when unable to come up with alternative solutions and sound scientific analysis in a timely manner for known global aviation phenomena as volcanic ash.. Or may be my expectations are too high?
Risk - volcanic eruption/ ever present ash (yet it's an unknown due to no info on concentration)
Consequence - worst case scenario (think logically for yourself what might happen to the a/c, not necessary a burning hole in the ground)
can we eliminate the risk - no!
can we stop our operations - nope (too much on the table, I'm speaking about states' economies and politics, not only the aviation industry)
So - know the risks (analyze them), plan for and implement risk mitigation.activities.
So what will be the EU risk mitigation activities? Should we expect a harmonized approach? When in reality states' economies to some extent are dependent on their own aviation industry? I doubt it.
With all respect to the EU regulatory bodies and their desperate attempts to come up with performance scheme and targets for the whole EU aviation industry (sounds insane to me).....and many other initiatives. to unite (towards monopolies, lets be frank about it)..., this is such a slap into face when unable to come up with alternative solutions and sound scientific analysis in a timely manner for known global aviation phenomena as volcanic ash.. Or may be my expectations are too high?
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UPDATE: Italian Airspace open from 7:00 AM, Monday 19th April
The Italian Civil Aviation Authority has just made this amendament:
ENAC:
“L’Enac comunica che, sulla base del Bollettino “Met Office - Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres”, circa lo stato della nube vulcanica islandese, è risultato confermato il miglioramento della situazione sull’area del Nord Italia.
Pertanto l’Ente Nazionale per l’Aviazione Civile ha disposto la riapertura dell’intero spazio aereo italiano a tutti i voli, a partire dalle ore 7:00 antimeridiane (ora italiana) di lunedì 19 aprile.”
Let's start the pilots run on the apron to the aircrafts!
The Italian Civil Aviation Authority has just made this amendament:
ENAC:
“L’Enac comunica che, sulla base del Bollettino “Met Office - Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres”, circa lo stato della nube vulcanica islandese, è risultato confermato il miglioramento della situazione sull’area del Nord Italia.
Pertanto l’Ente Nazionale per l’Aviazione Civile ha disposto la riapertura dell’intero spazio aereo italiano a tutti i voli, a partire dalle ore 7:00 antimeridiane (ora italiana) di lunedì 19 aprile.”
Let's start the pilots run on the apron to the aircrafts!
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Aha - a 'hard decision'. Are you quite sure that shouldn't be 'tough'?
1985 - you are Gordon Brown.
1985 - you are Gordon Brown.
I just think that the UK government should have taken and still be taking a much more proactive role in this. They did nothing when the best data available was saying do something (i'm not saying wether the data was correct and good or sh1t and rubbish, either way there wasn't enough) and left NATS to take a 'hard/tough decision' to restrict the airspace that NATS is responsible for. Once that choice had been made by NATS (on the basis of overall safety) virtually every other western/northern european government followed suit and closed theirs, in many cases to ALL flights (which never happened in the UK). The government should have made that decision. The point of a goverment is to take all the available data, weigh it up against the needs of the country and and make a choice on what to do wether its unpopular or not, wether there's an election or not. NATS is there to, as so far as possible, guarantee safe passage of aircraft through the majority of controlled airspace of the UK. It shouldn't have been upto them, IMHO Brown and his lackeys ducked this one. And now that people are getting extremley pi$$ed off he will swoop in, do some bullsh1t deal with spain or where ever, declare the airspace open and say "look at me aren't i great in a crisis, i sorted it all out when that nasty NATS closed the airspace..." (if anyone else was PM i would be saying the samething).
Meetings will now be convened all over Europe amongst aviation authorities to decide the best way of agreeing a party line to allow a relaxation of restrictions without openly admitting the massive over-reaction in the first place
If it was a total overreaction then it will be shown to be in the enquiry that will follow and lessons will be learnt.
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Gents ,
Regardless of all the whys and wherefores, the engineer that signs off your a/c requires authority to do so , or the CAA or other regulatory authorities take a rather dim view of things . Unless the engine OEM's relent , there is a huge amount of pain in the future for operators .
Here is an extract from an OEM's All operator Wire :
The following actions are recommended for engines that have been exposed but have been parked (not
operated on the ground or in-flight) in a volcanic ash environment prior to the next engine start:
A. Remove volcanic ash from the area in front of engine inlet and around the exhaust.
B. Dry motor the engine at maximum motoring speed for 90 seconds to blow volcanic ash out of the
engine.
C. Borescope inspect the HPC and HPT at the 6:00 o’clock position to look for foreign material. If loose
material is observed, dry motor the engine again for 90 seconds and re-inspect.
D. Change the engine oil filters.
E. Drain the oil system and refill with fresh oil.
The following actions are recommended for engines that have been exposed to volcanic ash and operated
(on the ground or in-flight) in a volcanic ash environment prior to the next engine start.
The following actions are recommended for engines that have operated (on the ground or in-flight) in a
volcanic ash environment (or if exposure is suspected or unknown) prior to the next engine start.
A. Inspect the engine inlet and exhaust areas for damage or erosion
B. Borescope inspect the Booster, HPC, combustor, HPT, and LPT for evidence of erosion, foreign object
damage, ash deposits, and cooling hole plugging.
C. Change engine oil filters.
D. Drain oil system and refill with fresh oil.
E. Schedule a repeat HPT borescope inspection at the next aircraft A check or within 400-800 hours.
F. Perform a ground power assurance run.
G. Continue to use the engine and vigilantly review the engine trend monitoring data to look for
possible negative engine performance.
paths resulting in reduced cooling flow and can also cause rotor imbalance from accumulation of material
settling and drying in the rotor spools.
Engine operation in volcanic ash environment should be avoided if possible. In-flight procedures are
provided in the Aircraft Manufacturers’ Operating Instructions.
The manual states "Before next engine start"
Regardless of all the whys and wherefores, the engineer that signs off your a/c requires authority to do so , or the CAA or other regulatory authorities take a rather dim view of things . Unless the engine OEM's relent , there is a huge amount of pain in the future for operators .
Here is an extract from an OEM's All operator Wire :
The following actions are recommended for engines that have been exposed but have been parked (not
operated on the ground or in-flight) in a volcanic ash environment prior to the next engine start:
A. Remove volcanic ash from the area in front of engine inlet and around the exhaust.
B. Dry motor the engine at maximum motoring speed for 90 seconds to blow volcanic ash out of the
engine.
C. Borescope inspect the HPC and HPT at the 6:00 o’clock position to look for foreign material. If loose
material is observed, dry motor the engine again for 90 seconds and re-inspect.
D. Change the engine oil filters.
E. Drain the oil system and refill with fresh oil.
The following actions are recommended for engines that have been exposed to volcanic ash and operated
(on the ground or in-flight) in a volcanic ash environment prior to the next engine start.
The following actions are recommended for engines that have operated (on the ground or in-flight) in a
volcanic ash environment (or if exposure is suspected or unknown) prior to the next engine start.
A. Inspect the engine inlet and exhaust areas for damage or erosion
B. Borescope inspect the Booster, HPC, combustor, HPT, and LPT for evidence of erosion, foreign object
damage, ash deposits, and cooling hole plugging.
C. Change engine oil filters.
D. Drain oil system and refill with fresh oil.
E. Schedule a repeat HPT borescope inspection at the next aircraft A check or within 400-800 hours.
F. Perform a ground power assurance run.
G. Continue to use the engine and vigilantly review the engine trend monitoring data to look for
possible negative engine performance.
paths resulting in reduced cooling flow and can also cause rotor imbalance from accumulation of material
settling and drying in the rotor spools.
Engine operation in volcanic ash environment should be avoided if possible. In-flight procedures are
provided in the Aircraft Manufacturers’ Operating Instructions.
The manual states "Before next engine start"
I'm certainly getting the impression that what's in the "air" is a deepening commercial pressure to relax the restrictions.
Just because an aircraft flew Dusseldorf to Amsterdam OK doesn't mean that airspace corridor is "clean" in this dymanic situation.
All I know is that every day there is a smattering of dust on cars the length & breadth of the UK - It's a question of safety v commercial pressure.
If the regs are relaxed & this is followed by a spate of Maydays then you can expect groundings & costly inspections fleet wide for an even longer period of time.
I think the forecast south westerlys on Friday, will be the only sure way to clear the air from Northern Europe.....except it will only be going somewhere else.
Just because an aircraft flew Dusseldorf to Amsterdam OK doesn't mean that airspace corridor is "clean" in this dymanic situation.
All I know is that every day there is a smattering of dust on cars the length & breadth of the UK - It's a question of safety v commercial pressure.
If the regs are relaxed & this is followed by a spate of Maydays then you can expect groundings & costly inspections fleet wide for an even longer period of time.
I think the forecast south westerlys on Friday, will be the only sure way to clear the air from Northern Europe.....except it will only be going somewhere else.
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If it was a total overreaction then it will be shown to be in the enquiry that will follow and lessons will be learnt.
If there is an enquiry, it will prove that it was not any "overreaction"
In either case, no lessons will be learned
Falco1:
Your expectations are too high. You cannot fly jet aircraft through air significantly contaminated with Volcanic dust without damaging the engines.
Your "alternatives' are:
1. Limit the damage by avoiding flying through very dirty air.
That means either find cleaner air to fly through, or don't fly at all.
2. Accept the damage and pay the price. Exactly what that price may be, and when it will be incurred, is as yet unclear, and that is obviously the subject of much frenzied research right now.
To put it another way, we are dealing with unknowns here for the very good reason that no airline or Government, or Politician was going to pay for an extremely expensive experiment involving taking a state of the art aircraft and finding volcanic ash clouds to fly it through simply on the off chance that one day a volcano in Iceland might blow ash all over Europe.
Foot stamping does no good.
With all respect to the EU regulatory bodies and their desperate attempts to come up with performance scheme and targets for the whole EU aviation industry (sounds insane to me).....and many other initiatives. to unite (towards monopolies, lets be frank about it)..., this is such a slap into face when unable to come up with alternative solutions and sound scientific analysis in a timely manner for known global aviation phenomena as volcanic ash.. Or may be my expectations are too high?
Your "alternatives' are:
1. Limit the damage by avoiding flying through very dirty air.
That means either find cleaner air to fly through, or don't fly at all.
2. Accept the damage and pay the price. Exactly what that price may be, and when it will be incurred, is as yet unclear, and that is obviously the subject of much frenzied research right now.
To put it another way, we are dealing with unknowns here for the very good reason that no airline or Government, or Politician was going to pay for an extremely expensive experiment involving taking a state of the art aircraft and finding volcanic ash clouds to fly it through simply on the off chance that one day a volcano in Iceland might blow ash all over Europe.
Foot stamping does no good.