Ash clouds threaten air traffic
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Evening all,
If this query/question has already been banded around, I apologise. Not going to read 60 odd pages of threads
With the volcanic ash, we all know the ins and outs of what it does to the engines. What i'm also concerned about is, what effect this ash has on us flight crews? What happens to this ash when it passes through the compressor, ingested into the packs, then thrown into the flight deck and cabin? We all know how sensitive these pack systems are to contamination, and with toxic fumes being such a hot topic!!!!!!!
Just a question
Keep safe.
If this query/question has already been banded around, I apologise. Not going to read 60 odd pages of threads
With the volcanic ash, we all know the ins and outs of what it does to the engines. What i'm also concerned about is, what effect this ash has on us flight crews? What happens to this ash when it passes through the compressor, ingested into the packs, then thrown into the flight deck and cabin? We all know how sensitive these pack systems are to contamination, and with toxic fumes being such a hot topic!!!!!!!
Just a question
Keep safe.
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BAW9156 passed overhead (Brecon Beacons) about half an hour ago at approx 25,000ft requesting 30,000ft.
No contrails, just a gentle rumble that has been missed over the last few days!!
No contrails, just a gentle rumble that has been missed over the last few days!!
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Where will this all end? Aircraft operators have effectively been banned from flying in UK airspace by a combination of NATS, the Met Office (BBQ summer fiasco last year) and presumably the DfT.
It's very easy to play the safety card, but will NATS be stopping operators getting airborne that are flying into other parts of the world that are subject to volcanic activity? You can't fly to Barbados because you'll be flying close to Montserrat, Sicily is banned as well. No flights from the UK to Indonesia, just in case. After all, you can never be too safe. If this continues, they will be closing airports because the crosswind is forecast to get breezy or a CB is nearby.
Somebody, somewhere, hit the big red panic button. We went from a minor news story in northern Scotland to complete lock-down of London within a couple of hours. The problem they have now, is how to get things back to normal without losing face. And public confidence.
It's very easy to play the safety card, but will NATS be stopping operators getting airborne that are flying into other parts of the world that are subject to volcanic activity? You can't fly to Barbados because you'll be flying close to Montserrat, Sicily is banned as well. No flights from the UK to Indonesia, just in case. After all, you can never be too safe. If this continues, they will be closing airports because the crosswind is forecast to get breezy or a CB is nearby.
Somebody, somewhere, hit the big red panic button. We went from a minor news story in northern Scotland to complete lock-down of London within a couple of hours. The problem they have now, is how to get things back to normal without losing face. And public confidence.
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All the ANSP's went for the safest possible cause of action based on the information that they had, which is the whole point of of the ANSP, to provide the safest possible air traffic service they can. It is then up to the regulators, CAA, ICAO, etc and the various governments to decide when it is safe to fly.
One might wonder if zee Govt is in a better position to make that decision than the Companies, the pilots and the PAX.
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Spain's secretary of state for EU affairs said on Sunday it was possible that 50% of flights in Europe could operate on Monday.
"The forecast is that there will be half of flights possibly operating tomorrow. It will be difficult; that's why we have to coordinate," Diego Lopez Garrido, whose country holds the European Union presidency, told reporters after a meeting at European aviation control agency Eurocontrol.
"The forecast is that there will be half of flights possibly operating tomorrow. It will be difficult; that's why we have to coordinate," Diego Lopez Garrido, whose country holds the European Union presidency, told reporters after a meeting at European aviation control agency Eurocontrol.
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Risk management factors
Digitalis' post pointed out two very sensible points of view which appear to be at the poles of opinion. It is not possible to fly with no risk, but from what I can see there are many factors which influence the decision to fly again and there is not much in the way of the degree of risk attributed to each factor.
I cannot ascribe any degree of importance to the risk, corporate and political factors as this situation is unprecedented but the eventual situation is going to be a compromise between these factors. There may be others too.
1. Short term risk of an aircraft crashing. Probably one which flew into a heavy ash plume and flamed out.
2. Medium term damage leading to an aircraft accident. Possibly ash into engines and airframes degrading the performance of the aircraft.
3. Long term unserviceability of aircraft due to ash damage which require airframe replacement earlier than anticipated by business models.
4. Passenger confidence in the short term, possibly delineated by the ones wanting to desperately get home no matter what and those who will not get on an aircraft under any circumstances in the prevailing conditions.
5. Medium term passenger confidence. If a major fatality accident occurs which is attributable to ash then confidence will decline suddenly. It may also be affected by a near miss like Capt Moody's flight.
6. Financial pressures leading to a short term degradation of flight safety. WW may decide to get on an aircraft which may take off and land safely but this may not reflect operational conditions. There is no way on God's green earth that if the aircraft test flown so far had significant damage that this would be made known in the short term.
7. Political pressures in the short term may lead to degradation of flight safety. Especially in the UK with an election looming, it may be expedient to get stranded passengers home at some degree of risk.
8. Medium term financial pressures possibly a combination of the volcanic issues, plus fuel cost, plus banking problems, plus financial confidence in an airline may lead to risk taking.
9. The potential of the ash to cause damage is largely unquantified. It may be sharp and glassy but may have different characteristics to the other volcanic eruptions, but the analysis is going to take much longer than the allowances of the pressures listed above my give.
If the volcano continues to erupt at the current rate for a prolonged period (measured in weeks?) or there is a major eruption of another Icelandic volcano then all of the above will be exacerbated.
Let the train take the strain is my personal view.
I cannot ascribe any degree of importance to the risk, corporate and political factors as this situation is unprecedented but the eventual situation is going to be a compromise between these factors. There may be others too.
1. Short term risk of an aircraft crashing. Probably one which flew into a heavy ash plume and flamed out.
2. Medium term damage leading to an aircraft accident. Possibly ash into engines and airframes degrading the performance of the aircraft.
3. Long term unserviceability of aircraft due to ash damage which require airframe replacement earlier than anticipated by business models.
4. Passenger confidence in the short term, possibly delineated by the ones wanting to desperately get home no matter what and those who will not get on an aircraft under any circumstances in the prevailing conditions.
5. Medium term passenger confidence. If a major fatality accident occurs which is attributable to ash then confidence will decline suddenly. It may also be affected by a near miss like Capt Moody's flight.
6. Financial pressures leading to a short term degradation of flight safety. WW may decide to get on an aircraft which may take off and land safely but this may not reflect operational conditions. There is no way on God's green earth that if the aircraft test flown so far had significant damage that this would be made known in the short term.
7. Political pressures in the short term may lead to degradation of flight safety. Especially in the UK with an election looming, it may be expedient to get stranded passengers home at some degree of risk.
8. Medium term financial pressures possibly a combination of the volcanic issues, plus fuel cost, plus banking problems, plus financial confidence in an airline may lead to risk taking.
9. The potential of the ash to cause damage is largely unquantified. It may be sharp and glassy but may have different characteristics to the other volcanic eruptions, but the analysis is going to take much longer than the allowances of the pressures listed above my give.
If the volcano continues to erupt at the current rate for a prolonged period (measured in weeks?) or there is a major eruption of another Icelandic volcano then all of the above will be exacerbated.
Let the train take the strain is my personal view.
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Despite the chaos and havoc it is causing it remains a thing of unreal beauty.
More: SwissEduc: Stromboli Online - Volcanic and glacial landforms of Iceland
More: SwissEduc: Stromboli Online - Volcanic and glacial landforms of Iceland
At the risk of squandering what little credibility I have by posting on this thread, I need to explain something to some of you....
The fact that someone can make a "Test flight" and return the aircraft in one piece after exposure to some level of volcanic ash proves absolutely nothing. Detailed examination of the hot section of the engine is required, probably right down to the microscopic level and including sectioning of first stage turbine blades and nozzle guide vanes to check the cooling passages for contamination.
I'm not sure what turbine blade life is these days, but it must be of the order of at least 6000 hours plus, and probably well over 10,000 engine hours. If volcanic ash contamination compromises the figures for blade life in the slightest then airlines cannot fly because they are buying themselves a simply massive maintenance cost increase in the future. Furthermore, there would not be enough blade and vane manufacturing capacity available to satisfy demand.
To put it another way, I can take the air filter off my car and still run it up and down the road today and nothing will happen, however I would be wrong to conclude from that experiment that the provision of air filters by the car manufacturer was unnecessary overkill designed merely to boost profits.
To put it another way, If the engines will get their lives shortened by dust contamination, then the aircraft cannot fly, at least not at todays ticket prices anyway.
Having experienced the disruption caused by Fog at Heathrow for a few days years ago, I have a rough idea of the scale of disruption this event is causing. My Son is in Spain at the moment and I have just had to explain to him that there is no way he is getting to England until this clears up, as I imagine that train/bus/ferry systems are overloaded and will remain so. I've also had to explain that if this continues his plans for summer employment in holiday related industry are similarly moot.
..As for those conspiracy theorists and critics of NATS, especially those wondering why there is no "Plan B" to get them to their holiday destinations, I just shake my head in bemusement.
I think that if this continues for another week, even if a few flights are possible, there is going to be a need to ration available seats to essential travel only, and prioritise it to first return stranded people to their homes. I also suspect that some form of Government welfare support is going to be needed for the stranded because I don't think travel insurance covers it (force majeur?) and people must be fast running out of money and credit.
God knows what this will do to the tourism industry around the world, let alone the airlines.
The fact that someone can make a "Test flight" and return the aircraft in one piece after exposure to some level of volcanic ash proves absolutely nothing. Detailed examination of the hot section of the engine is required, probably right down to the microscopic level and including sectioning of first stage turbine blades and nozzle guide vanes to check the cooling passages for contamination.
I'm not sure what turbine blade life is these days, but it must be of the order of at least 6000 hours plus, and probably well over 10,000 engine hours. If volcanic ash contamination compromises the figures for blade life in the slightest then airlines cannot fly because they are buying themselves a simply massive maintenance cost increase in the future. Furthermore, there would not be enough blade and vane manufacturing capacity available to satisfy demand.
To put it another way, I can take the air filter off my car and still run it up and down the road today and nothing will happen, however I would be wrong to conclude from that experiment that the provision of air filters by the car manufacturer was unnecessary overkill designed merely to boost profits.
To put it another way, If the engines will get their lives shortened by dust contamination, then the aircraft cannot fly, at least not at todays ticket prices anyway.
Having experienced the disruption caused by Fog at Heathrow for a few days years ago, I have a rough idea of the scale of disruption this event is causing. My Son is in Spain at the moment and I have just had to explain to him that there is no way he is getting to England until this clears up, as I imagine that train/bus/ferry systems are overloaded and will remain so. I've also had to explain that if this continues his plans for summer employment in holiday related industry are similarly moot.
..As for those conspiracy theorists and critics of NATS, especially those wondering why there is no "Plan B" to get them to their holiday destinations, I just shake my head in bemusement.
I think that if this continues for another week, even if a few flights are possible, there is going to be a need to ration available seats to essential travel only, and prioritise it to first return stranded people to their homes. I also suspect that some form of Government welfare support is going to be needed for the stranded because I don't think travel insurance covers it (force majeur?) and people must be fast running out of money and credit.
God knows what this will do to the tourism industry around the world, let alone the airlines.
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Is there a possibility that once airspace has reopened airlines will fly extra flights to clear the back-log .... or are the main airports already operating at 'slot' capacity ?
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Thanks Buckster.
There has certainly been a shift in attitude amongst the powers that be in Europe over the past few hours. The pressure put on them by airlines to allow flights to commence again has obviously had an affect on the recent announcement that 50% of flights might take place tomorrow.
Sadly the UK Government seem to think there is no chance of flights in the UK for at least 24 hours
There has certainly been a shift in attitude amongst the powers that be in Europe over the past few hours. The pressure put on them by airlines to allow flights to commence again has obviously had an affect on the recent announcement that 50% of flights might take place tomorrow.
Sadly the UK Government seem to think there is no chance of flights in the UK for at least 24 hours
Keeping Danny in Sandwiches
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How much of this industry shutdown is based on science and how much on "beyond my paygrade"?
In the past Mr Etna has erupted and UA1 was closed while UB23 remained open.
In the Middle East aircraft fly in airspace where temperature inversions trap sand in the air with fairly high concentrations sufficient for the 1-11 that I flew over 30 years ago to show sand erosion on the fan blades. We are surely not intending to fly through the main area of contamination so what exactly is the difference of flying in Europe in current conditions and flying day in and day out in the Middle East?
I recognise that it might have long term implications for shutdown rates but is the industry going to be brought to its knees for the sake of that?
Possibly if we flew with tabards on it will satisfy the Insurance industry.
In the past Mr Etna has erupted and UA1 was closed while UB23 remained open.
In the Middle East aircraft fly in airspace where temperature inversions trap sand in the air with fairly high concentrations sufficient for the 1-11 that I flew over 30 years ago to show sand erosion on the fan blades. We are surely not intending to fly through the main area of contamination so what exactly is the difference of flying in Europe in current conditions and flying day in and day out in the Middle East?
I recognise that it might have long term implications for shutdown rates but is the industry going to be brought to its knees for the sake of that?
Possibly if we flew with tabards on it will satisfy the Insurance industry.
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Where is the dust cloud ?? Cannot see it...
The sky over my head is deep blue and the stars are night are bright...No reddish haze whatsoever.
certainly its up here well diluted at least at my latitude.
Last summer went to an airshow in Tripoli Libya with a Sukhoi 29 and 2 Extra 300's.
The whole week we had light thermal winds carrying...Sand. Not sand storms, but light winds depositing small amounts of sand over time everywhere...
No air filters fitted on Sukhois or Extra's. Nothing we could do about that but cover the air intakes in between flights and rinse the canopies taking care not to scratch them.
These conditions are encountered so often in North Africa and Gulf states, how come we don't hear anything about that more often ???
Anyone involved in maintenance in such an environment could say something ?
Back home, we gave a nice cleaning; Sand found its way in in every corner down to the fuel filters... We used water and shampoo for the exposed surfaces, gasoline and compressed air for engine bays, undercarriages and hinges.
A few ounces of Libyan sand left a brownish streak on the ground once the water and fuel had evaporated....
Lucky the piston engines we use have big bores (1 liter and more each), and big valves, but it does no good to them.
In Triopli I saw a few SF 260's Marchetti's piston singles flying every day, they use the same type Lycoming engine than the Extra 300's. I hope they are fitted with air filters, but what about the jets and helicopters turbines ?
The sky over my head is deep blue and the stars are night are bright...No reddish haze whatsoever.
certainly its up here well diluted at least at my latitude.
Last summer went to an airshow in Tripoli Libya with a Sukhoi 29 and 2 Extra 300's.
The whole week we had light thermal winds carrying...Sand. Not sand storms, but light winds depositing small amounts of sand over time everywhere...
No air filters fitted on Sukhois or Extra's. Nothing we could do about that but cover the air intakes in between flights and rinse the canopies taking care not to scratch them.
These conditions are encountered so often in North Africa and Gulf states, how come we don't hear anything about that more often ???
Anyone involved in maintenance in such an environment could say something ?
Back home, we gave a nice cleaning; Sand found its way in in every corner down to the fuel filters... We used water and shampoo for the exposed surfaces, gasoline and compressed air for engine bays, undercarriages and hinges.
A few ounces of Libyan sand left a brownish streak on the ground once the water and fuel had evaporated....
Lucky the piston engines we use have big bores (1 liter and more each), and big valves, but it does no good to them.
In Triopli I saw a few SF 260's Marchetti's piston singles flying every day, they use the same type Lycoming engine than the Extra 300's. I hope they are fitted with air filters, but what about the jets and helicopters turbines ?