Ash clouds threaten air traffic
mainbearing
I know it's difficult to keep track of all the comments on posts on a thread like this, but the difference between common sand and volcanic ash has been covered.
Apparently it's different, I wouldn't know, but am prepared to accept the word of those who have actually experienced it.
Nevertheless, let's be wary of every self-styled " expert " - X is an unknown quantity, and a spurt is a drip under pressure.
I know it's difficult to keep track of all the comments on posts on a thread like this, but the difference between common sand and volcanic ash has been covered.
Apparently it's different, I wouldn't know, but am prepared to accept the word of those who have actually experienced it.
Nevertheless, let's be wary of every self-styled " expert " - X is an unknown quantity, and a spurt is a drip under pressure.
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Would it be easy to lay-off operational people ?
I mean , the market is still there , flights have to be flown , only the revenue is missing for a few days / weeks.
So only the very low on cash airline's might have to stop , but then other's will florish by catching this part of the market.
I think the risk for operational people is limited , however the annual results for the airline will suffer
I mean , the market is still there , flights have to be flown , only the revenue is missing for a few days / weeks.
So only the very low on cash airline's might have to stop , but then other's will florish by catching this part of the market.
I think the risk for operational people is limited , however the annual results for the airline will suffer
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After watching on the sideline for the last days, my 2 cents as someone directly involved:
1. Yes, the decision not to fly will be conservative. That is how we deal with unknowns in aviation. If you don't know what is going to happen, don't do it.
2. The reason why the decision is conservative: testing the maximum ash density (dependent on ash type) that may safely be flown through is expensive, very expensive. Luckily, until now volcano eruptions have been in such locations that we could fly around any suspected clouds. Furthermore, none have been in such density used airspace with such a densely populated area below it (not only the aircraft, crew, and passengers are at risk in a crash). Flying around was cheaper than spending R&D and investment in being able to fly through predicted ash conditions.
Rest assured that, now that avoiding ash is clearly no longer the cheapest option, researchers in all kinds of fields (primarily the engine manufacturers, but also meteorologists, risk management experts, aviation maintenance experts) will be going to spend larger amounts of money on this. This may result in better ash tracking techniques, the fitting of ash detection equipment on aircraft, operational limits and all kinds of inventions. Only situations like the present makes spending the money on this worthwhile.
3. Finally on the validity of the VAAC model. (meteorologists please correct me where appropriate) The model is simply the best model available. If you compare the various dispersion results from Germany, Noway and the VAAC, you will see they are very similar, which tells me that they are most likely quite good.
The model probably has been tested based on previous volcanic eruptions and other dispersal events like as Tjernobyl. This situation is quite hard to recreate in small scale or otherwise. The data from the NERC flight will be used to validate and correct the model were needed.
Now lets all hope first of all that that ugly piece of rock in Iceland decides to quit smoking soon!
00nix
1. Yes, the decision not to fly will be conservative. That is how we deal with unknowns in aviation. If you don't know what is going to happen, don't do it.
2. The reason why the decision is conservative: testing the maximum ash density (dependent on ash type) that may safely be flown through is expensive, very expensive. Luckily, until now volcano eruptions have been in such locations that we could fly around any suspected clouds. Furthermore, none have been in such density used airspace with such a densely populated area below it (not only the aircraft, crew, and passengers are at risk in a crash). Flying around was cheaper than spending R&D and investment in being able to fly through predicted ash conditions.
Rest assured that, now that avoiding ash is clearly no longer the cheapest option, researchers in all kinds of fields (primarily the engine manufacturers, but also meteorologists, risk management experts, aviation maintenance experts) will be going to spend larger amounts of money on this. This may result in better ash tracking techniques, the fitting of ash detection equipment on aircraft, operational limits and all kinds of inventions. Only situations like the present makes spending the money on this worthwhile.
3. Finally on the validity of the VAAC model. (meteorologists please correct me where appropriate) The model is simply the best model available. If you compare the various dispersion results from Germany, Noway and the VAAC, you will see they are very similar, which tells me that they are most likely quite good.
The model probably has been tested based on previous volcanic eruptions and other dispersal events like as Tjernobyl. This situation is quite hard to recreate in small scale or otherwise. The data from the NERC flight will be used to validate and correct the model were needed.
Now lets all hope first of all that that ugly piece of rock in Iceland decides to quit smoking soon!
00nix
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Irish Airspace remains close to 13.00 Monday 19th
Irish Aviation Authority: Shutdown of Irish airspace extended to 1pm Monday, inc N American flights. "Ongoing restrictions likely." Next update 09.00 tomorrow on Irish Aviation Authority
dc10fr8k9.
I think you'll find that the Titanic sinking was not all bad luck.
Icebergs were known to be in the area and the advice was to take a more southerly route. However the Captain wanted to make the fastest crossing, so dis-regarded this advice and steamed at normal speed into an area of known icebergs.
Should we in aviation ignore the advice of people with more knowledge than ourselves and press on, hoping for the best?
I for one don't want to be a statistic in the aviation history of "accidents".
I'm stuck in TLV waiting to fly cargo to Italy or Germany or anywhere in Europe that's open for that matter..
Dixi.
I think you'll find that the Titanic sinking was not all bad luck.
Icebergs were known to be in the area and the advice was to take a more southerly route. However the Captain wanted to make the fastest crossing, so dis-regarded this advice and steamed at normal speed into an area of known icebergs.
Should we in aviation ignore the advice of people with more knowledge than ourselves and press on, hoping for the best?
I for one don't want to be a statistic in the aviation history of "accidents".
I'm stuck in TLV waiting to fly cargo to Italy or Germany or anywhere in Europe that's open for that matter..
Dixi.
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Channel Islands inter island flights operating
Worth just noting this morning that whilst the vast majority of airlines are currently unable to operate wthin the British Isles, it is possible to fly between the islands in the Channel Islands where both Aurigny & Blue Islands are continuing to operate their schedules.
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After longer periods of operating airplanes and their engines with these conditions it could very well have effect!!!!!
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So I think it should be a commercial choice to fly or not to fly as engines will last maybe only 3000 hours on wing rather then 5000 hours but there is no immidiate danger!!!
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Well, nowadays airline business might be a bit like Darwin, survival of the fittest. But even dinosaurs died out once... sitting at home doing nothing but producing costs with ZERO business done - how long can these last costing no jobs???
My beer tastes more bitter than before. And believe me, i do like a bitter.
My beer tastes more bitter than before. And believe me, i do like a bitter.
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ILS:
If you are in London, look outside the window right now: the moon is red
If you are in London, look outside the window right now: the moon is red
Big scare story, like Swine Flu.
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Hi People
Theres too much going on here that is just too vague. For a start the area of volcanic ash is a best guess anyway based on a model that has no input with actual location of volcanic ash being as it cant be measured. Therefore, it could be far far more wide spread than we think, or significantly less wide spread. The reason this is becoming so emotive is because no one is actually aware of the severity or inconsequence of any risk.
Thats fine people but the notion that suddenly an aeroplane is going to fall out of the sky if a test flight is conducted is just ludicrous. For those that have even bothered to examine the BA9 incident, even they, after flying in the most concentrated part of the ash cloud, got all 4 engines running again once they descended out of it so comments like
One "aeronautical engineer" is wheeled out after a flight in a Dornier, that BTW DID NOT CRASH and says that he wouldnt want to put airliners up there. Sadly he has lost all credibility as it was HIS PERSONAL OPINION released immediately after he returned........ there had not been any time to examine the data recovered. Maybe he smelt sulphur and that clouded his judgement but firing off like that was nothing more than him getting his 15 minutes of fame. People on this forum are really good at castigating anyone who comments on an aircraft accident before the report is released. So it should be that this idiot be castigated.......... for speaking out of turn.
It seems to me that instead of having a plan to keep everyone on the ground, we should try to devise a plan to get people back into the air. I dont say that due to bravado, i say that because i am aware of the risks of flying an aeroplane, and they are acceptable risks, otherwise the aviation industry wouldn't exist. OK so we now have a new risk but NO ONE knows the extent of this risk......... but for sure, aircraft arent going to spontaneously combust...... and so far the aviation world has had far more engine failure incidents than it has volcanic ash incidents and we are trained for these........AND it has already been proven that volcanic ash resides in the atmosphere 100% of the time. Therefore we should start slowly and with certain restrictions in place and then move on once data has been gathered.
So a start could be, for example, to let 4 engined aircraft operate, within the assumed affected area in Daylight hours only and outside of visible cloud and then inspect said aircraft for engine damage on a continual basis and as we build a knowledge base, move forward.
Scaremongering isnt going to help anybody and neither is bravado. Moving forward, step by small step will allow us all to learn, which after having read EVERY post on this thread, is the one undeniable common denominator associated with it.......everyone needs to learn....... so when HEATHROW DIRECTOR says.....not with me on board..... GOOD get back to West Drayton and do the job that you are actually qualified to comment on
Regards
GW
Theres too much going on here that is just too vague. For a start the area of volcanic ash is a best guess anyway based on a model that has no input with actual location of volcanic ash being as it cant be measured. Therefore, it could be far far more wide spread than we think, or significantly less wide spread. The reason this is becoming so emotive is because no one is actually aware of the severity or inconsequence of any risk.
Thats fine people but the notion that suddenly an aeroplane is going to fall out of the sky if a test flight is conducted is just ludicrous. For those that have even bothered to examine the BA9 incident, even they, after flying in the most concentrated part of the ash cloud, got all 4 engines running again once they descended out of it so comments like
Do you seriously think ATC will be able to get everything out of the way in time of a dozen aircraft falling out of the sky at the same time?
One "aeronautical engineer" is wheeled out after a flight in a Dornier, that BTW DID NOT CRASH and says that he wouldnt want to put airliners up there. Sadly he has lost all credibility as it was HIS PERSONAL OPINION released immediately after he returned........ there had not been any time to examine the data recovered. Maybe he smelt sulphur and that clouded his judgement but firing off like that was nothing more than him getting his 15 minutes of fame. People on this forum are really good at castigating anyone who comments on an aircraft accident before the report is released. So it should be that this idiot be castigated.......... for speaking out of turn.
It seems to me that instead of having a plan to keep everyone on the ground, we should try to devise a plan to get people back into the air. I dont say that due to bravado, i say that because i am aware of the risks of flying an aeroplane, and they are acceptable risks, otherwise the aviation industry wouldn't exist. OK so we now have a new risk but NO ONE knows the extent of this risk......... but for sure, aircraft arent going to spontaneously combust...... and so far the aviation world has had far more engine failure incidents than it has volcanic ash incidents and we are trained for these........AND it has already been proven that volcanic ash resides in the atmosphere 100% of the time. Therefore we should start slowly and with certain restrictions in place and then move on once data has been gathered.
So a start could be, for example, to let 4 engined aircraft operate, within the assumed affected area in Daylight hours only and outside of visible cloud and then inspect said aircraft for engine damage on a continual basis and as we build a knowledge base, move forward.
Scaremongering isnt going to help anybody and neither is bravado. Moving forward, step by small step will allow us all to learn, which after having read EVERY post on this thread, is the one undeniable common denominator associated with it.......everyone needs to learn....... so when HEATHROW DIRECTOR says.....not with me on board..... GOOD get back to West Drayton and do the job that you are actually qualified to comment on
Regards
GW
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MetOffice technology and results
see the lidar data
seems that the ash is falling 1000m in about 2 hours
similar data from other MetOffice dust observation stations.
So:
(1) MetOffice, as expected, has some real time ash presence knowledge and technology in place
(2) ash is slowly falling down, as expected
, but new is flowing in so there are no clear flight levels for any prolonged time
(3) any one happy with some additives to his air intake pls see what could be expected
anyone interested pls see MetOfficewebsite
seems that the ash is falling 1000m in about 2 hours
similar data from other MetOffice dust observation stations.
So:
(1) MetOffice, as expected, has some real time ash presence knowledge and technology in place
(2) ash is slowly falling down, as expected
, but new is flowing in so there are no clear flight levels for any prolonged time(3) any one happy with some additives to his air intake pls see what could be expected
anyone interested pls see MetOfficewebsite
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Ireland too
Irish airspace shut down until 1pm Monday, including N American flights. Lots of transfer passengers who arrived yesterday morning are still stranded in Dublin. IAA statement says "ongoing restrictions likely."
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And if you take the risk and fly and it all goes horribly wrong then some people:
a: Will never fly again
and
b: SLF will avoid that company like the plague and it'll go bust.
a: Will never fly again
and
b: SLF will avoid that company like the plague and it'll go bust.
Which is why we need more research and testing - now.
There should have been research aircraft up every day, measuring the concentrations and (supposed) turbine damage at these concentrations, so we have some real data to go on. (the Nimrod on two engines)
Sitting on the ground and saying 'we are all going to die' is going to do nothing for aviation. Remember, this eruption may go on for the next two or more years.
Do we dispand aviation completely, or do something????
.