Ash clouds threaten air traffic

[Brian McGrath]

Check out this link it updates by refresh the Volcano is 3 pictures down its pretty active now

Link: Mulakot - myndavelar

[alwaysmovin]

Lufthansa and Condor all repositioned flights from Munich to Frankfurt today...they all flew VFR and the majority at fl 125. The first was inspected by engineers at Frankfurt and given the all clear and the rest followed......

[AnthonyGA]

Not me - I think it's verging on the insanity.

Insanity or not, throughout the history of aviation the only way to gather important safety data in many contexts has been through test flights. The only way to know what happens is to go up there. That's what test pilots and test aircraft are for. You use only volunteers.

The alternative is to continue in near total ignorance of the real effects of volcanic ash, and if you don't know the effects, the only true safe course of action it to keep everything grounded as long as there's any ash anywhere. That's not a practical route for the long term, should the eruptions continue for two years, as they have in the past.

It may well be that no amount of ash is acceptable, but the only way to know for sure is to go up and fly through it.

Right now, the actions being taken are actually far more dangerous. Allowing a few flights through areas that look like they might be safe is very risky. And I'm certain that the "inspections" being done to look for damage are incomplete. The only way to inspect for damage from volcanic ash is to inspect every part of the airplane into which ash can penetrate, which essentially means the entire airframe. Nobody has had time to do that so far, so it is certain that nobody has done it. At the very least, the engines need to be completely disassembled, not just glanced at or partially disassembled. And every other part of the airplane that ash may touch needs to be checked, too.

The fact that a flight arrives safely with no noticeable problems does NOT mean that the ash had no effect. It may have caused damage that won't be apparent until several flights later.

In short, instead of going up and doing extensive, deliberate, careful tests with willing volunteers, it looks like airlines and the authorities are going to roll the dice with flights that attempt to avoid the heaviest ash concentrations, and declare them safe if the airplanes don't fall out of the sky. As time passes, they'll take more and more risks, and perhaps do more and more damage that will bring aircraft down after the ash is gone. That is what I call insanity.

[TheWanderer]

Volcanic Ash Build-up




source: NASA/TM-2003-212030, Engine Damage to a NASA DC-8-72 Airplane From a High-Altitude Encounter With a Diffuse Volcanic Ash Cloud. Thomas J. Grindle, NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards, California and Frank W. Burcham, Jr. Analytical Services and Materials, Inc. Edwards, California, August 2003.

Erosion due to Volcanic Ash


source: NASA/TM-2003-212030, Engine Damage to a NASA DC-8-72 Airplane From a High-Altitude Encounter With a Diffuse Volcanic Ash Cloud. Thomas J. Grindle, NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards, California and Frank W. Burcham, Jr. Analytical Services and Materials, Inc. Edwards, California, August 2003.

Both pictures are from SKYbrary - Volcanic Ash

Seems to be reason enough to not fly, or?

[cwatters]

An Icelandic volcanologist was just interviewed on C4 news. He reports seismic activity near Katla saying an eruption is 'very likely'

Apparently there is a strong link between the two volcanoes going back to the year 920. From what I read Katia normally goes off every 50-60 years. Last big one was in 1918 although there might have been a smaller on in 1955. So we're about due. It's also been rumbling since 1999.

Another big volcano in Iceland let go in 1783...

Laki - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

selected extracts..

It started 8th June 1783.

The summer of 1783 was the hottest on record and a rare high pressure zone over Iceland caused the winds to blow to the south-east. The poisonous cloud drifted to Bergen in Norway, then spread to Prague in the Province of Bohemia by 17 June, Berlin by 18 June, Paris by 20 June, Le Havre by 22 June, and to Great Britain by 23 June. The fog was so thick that boats stayed in port, unable to navigate, and the sun was described as "blood coloured".

In Great Britain, the records show that the additional deaths were outdoor workers, and perhaps 2-3 times above the normal rate in Bedfordshire, Lincolnshire and the east coast. It has been estimated that 23,000 British people died from the poisoning in August and September.

The haze also heated up, causing severe thunderstorms with hailstones that were reported to have killed cattle, until it dissipated in the autumn. This disruption then led to a most severe winter in 1784, in which Gilbert White at Selborne in Hampshire reported 28 days of continuous frost. The extreme winter is estimated to have caused 8,000 additional deaths in the UK. In the spring thaw, Germany and Central Europe then reported severe flood damage

[roljoe]

Thanks guy...just wondering..because some operators were asking for a kind of derogation...to fly low for "transplant" mission..;and also regarding the french idea to fly military planes to enable french tourists to get home..
I was supposing they're flying in a different sky then we do !!!!

[paulrcgb]

You beat me to the response.

Can you imagine the uproar on this forum in a years time if a plane comes down (god forbid) and the cause is due to damage sustained by flying through ash over the coming days. I can imagine it taking less than 10 posts for someone to blame the authorities for allowing planes to fly.

We're talking about people lives here, and yes it's a great inconvenience to us all, however lets pause for a moment about the pain and loss that would be caused to people if the authorities/airlines got it wrong.

If you look across on the flyertalk forums, it generally full of very frustrated, yet understanding travellers. They'd rather be safe than sorry.

[stephenwilliams40]

KLM705 - climbing over Amsterdam

Anybody know whats going on with flight labelled KLM705 took off B737 (PH-BGB) took off from Schipol 30 mins ago climbed to FL380 and currently circling over Amsterdam?

[Mike7777777]

Why are aeroplanes flying where risk may be increased? Isn't this what weather balloons are supposed to do? Launch into the plume with remotely controlled height regulating equipment.

Flying boats, it's the only answer y'know.

[rp122]

KLM705

KLM705 is a 737-406 test flight sent up by KLM at the request of the EU.

Been sent up to test the effects of ash on parts of the aircraft.

You can follow it on ThatStupidPlace as AshAlerts

Tail number is PH-BDU

[DB64]

geography and geology

I've followed this thread with interest and some commenters have commented about other volcanic eruptions elsewhere in the world and their apparent lack of effect on air traffic. Their location is one factor; mostly around the pacific rim and many in the southern hemisphere; should one look at prevailing winds, concentration of landmasses, population density and airspace options in these areas one would notice there are far more options for avoidance as well as posing far less of a hazzard for airports (as there are very few in the middle of the pacific, large swathes of south America, northern Canada, etc.). Secondly, the volcano in question is under a glacier and, from what I can so far ascertain, it is this that is creating the levels of ash that are causing problems....molten rock meets water and....(I may be wrong but from what I have read this seems to be a factor).

All very frustrating but personally, would rather be safe than.....

And yes, hopefully this will provide an opportunity to research this further. It hasn't probably been investigated as thoroughly as it should perhaps because of aforementioned relative lack of occurrence in busy airspace.

[hetfield]

Anybody know whats going on with flight labelled KLM705 took off B737 (PH-BGB) took off from Schipol 30 mins ago climbed to FL380 and currently circling over Amsterdam?

Another project of "Jugend forscht" ?

[22 Degree Halo]

[TRC]

Evidence

Where is the evidence?

Its CAVOK over most of southern England and no ash evident.

I washed the screen of my car this afternoon with plenty of water to get rid of a fair bit of 'dust' that's settled on it since yesterday.
In the two hours since then it has accumulated more - but this time some larger jagged pin-head size pieces.

I would post a picture, but the one I posted yesterday was deleted, I don't want to be accused of being a 'spotter' or a 'breathless enthusiast' (I am neither) as happened yesterday.

There is definately crap falling from the CAVOK sky in southern England, and it's doing it now.

[reverserunlocked]

Making pretty circles in the sky.

[UAV689]

Let us not also forget the effect this is having on many companies that make a living from the airports, truckers, cargo agents, etc. I have just returned from a shift at a mail hub and they are struggling, if this carries on it will effect many smaller companies first. Govenment would likely step in and save big airlines, but the smaller companies would collapse first.

[Max Torque]

I think KLM have done a CBA on this. They must be losing money at the rate of 2-3 CFM56's a day. So put a plane up and see what happens.
If it trashes the engines, so be it; now we know.
If it flames out, they're at FL380 and can do a power off landing anywhere within 150 NM. That might sound a bit challenging to those not used to that maneuver, but its actually not that tricky - if you've done it before. Any military pilot/UN/ICRC pilot is used to doing them in high threat areas. Mind you, I'm not conversant with what the B737 they've chosen for the job can do if it flames out on both and the APU chokes as well. Manual reversion? Keep the gear down as a precaution? Some fluffy driver jump in here.

There's a lack of hard data here and that void needs to be filled urgently. The Finnish F18's do not make it seem likely that it will be a positive outcome, but for the sake of the industry we have to know. And two engines is a cheap price to pay given the alternative. Desperate times mandate desperate measures. Kudos to KLM for leading the way.

[arthur05]

I do not normally post on this forum as I'm not a pilot, but someone who had worked for RR Research and Development for some 20 years at their Parkside Works Coventry.
I Have always had the greatest respect for those who sit at the pointy end, but reading some of the postings on this thread leads me to believe that some are a little short of the full shilling, I have no problem with those who wish to committing suicide in fact I believe that is their human right, but I and other SLF have no wish to accompany them.
It has been stated more times than I care to think of, from both Engine Manufacturers and all of the other "Experts" that go to make your Shiny Alum Tube stay in the air. If even a small amount of volcanic ash is ingested into the engine it will melt in the combustion chamber and probably coat the combustion chamber cooling holes with glass, when that happens the flame just burns out the combustion chamber walls, so V hot gasses bypass the mouth of the chamber and turbine, creating havoc to say the least with the rest of the engine, that is without the problems of molten glass on the turbine blades and stator vanes. blocking the cooling holes on the leading and trailing edges of the vanes . As the combustion gasses temperatures are a lot high than the melting point of engines components not only will the turbine blades and vanes fail or start to melt, but also the compressor walls can be affected all of this leads to basically. No blades, no combustion chamber, no compressor walls, then your big alum tube becomes a very poor glider. Of course this doesn't include the abrasive effect on your big shiny tube and engines If this doesn't convince you doubters, I suggest you nip down to your local Garage or Engineering works and try standing in front of their bead or sand blasting equipment, when you have achieved that ,if there is any remains left of you,then come back here and tell everybody that this grounding is just over reaction, Me after reading some of your comments I have no intension of trusting my worthless life in your hands again, I'll stick to terra firma and I hope now that you experts in flying, will leave the experts in Engineering to advise on what is safest not only for the Aircraft and Engines but also possibly less in you opinion, us SLF
oldie

[poorjohn]

Anyone from engineering care to jump in and say how certain they are of being able to detect latent damage to the engines from the test flight (or any other)?

[Low Flier]

No smell of sulphur in the cabin, only a slight stink of bull****:


FL410 over the upwind edge of a cloud which has a promulgated top of less than FL200 and which has always been declared not to exist above FL350.

Who is bull****ting whom with this absurd cruise?

Very Dutch.