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Turkish MD-83 Crash

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Turkish MD-83 Crash

Old 1st Dec 2007, 23:09
  #101 (permalink)  
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TwoOneFour;

PBL has a level head on his shoulders as his extensive academic output clearly shows. Sadly there are a few too many people on this forum who think that shoulder stripes equate to IQ and whose egos outweigh their manners.
Could not agree more strongly. PBL has an enormous amount to offer those who set aside an unfounded prejudice against "academics" in favour of an open mind. PBL has never claimed to know it all but instead contributes from his expertise as we all do.

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Old 1st Dec 2007, 23:16
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He's also a very friendly,courteous character as well, and tenacious in the face of getting to the bottom of safety issues, even if it means re-evaluating his initial opinions.

This place would be significantly poorer for lack of his presence.
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Old 2nd Dec 2007, 00:32
  #103 (permalink)  
 
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When an incident... or an accident happens...

It seems that the first priority, for some, is to broadcast the fact on Pprune. It is a contest to be the first... Then of course, we get two, three, a dozen of statements that repeat essentially the same thing... Obviously, if the BBC says so.. clearly, Radio Deutches Welle or RAI will do as well. No need to cite each separate reference...
xxx
Then from threads nš 10 through nš 50, we get the early expert reports of why the accident happened. Occasionally, an intelligent assesment appears, but gets lost in the flood of expert "reports".
xxx
Personally, if something unfortunately happens to an airplane, I like to know about it, but I do not expect to know about the likely reason or circumstances, until many days or weeks later. What I like to know, is to which airplane it did happened to, such as registry, manufacturer's s/n, maybe know which airline operated that aircraft previously, some might know what was the standard equipment of that airplane then... I also appreciate those who are, like here, publishing the applicable approach procedure of the airport (or the departure if a take-off or climb incident/accident) as well as the MET reports at the time of the event. That is it... Nice to know also if the plane just came out of a "C" check, or that the RH engine got changed the day before.
xxx
I called upon the MD-80 fleet manager of my airline this morning, to ask him if he had anything already transpiring from official sources. He told me nothing had already been published. What was his idea of what happened, he said "very likely to be a CFIT situation" as a likely reason after he probably read the news, he just asked me "there are mountains there in Turkey, is it...?"
xxx
Then in a few weeks, probably the voice recorder and flight recorder findings will be published. I will read through them, and if applicable, will make a note if mentioning something of benefit for out pilots, and if necessary, to our MD-80 troops. That is about it... That will be thread nš 300 or so... most of the rest will be rubbish. So... non-glass cockpits are source of disorientation of pilots...? Well, I clean the fingerprints of previous crews from my instruments with Windex spray, and can perfectly read my FD and HSI, as well as the DME counter. At my age, glass cockpits do confuse me.
xxx
As I would speculate that it is a scenario of CFIT, airplane possibly off its course, or not, I am certain that the operations and training management of that Turkish air carrier are already thinking of it as well, and issuing notes to all their pilots with recommendations of minimum sector altitudes to be maintained, or reviews of approach procedures for that particular airport, or similar places, which abound in that part of the world.
xxx
I appreciate the value of "educated discussions" among aviation people and the education value of these discussions. But do not expect my own criticism, at this stage, of what could be done to improve flight safety in similar circumstances. to which all of us flight crews, could benefit. Maybe in 3 months, in classrooms, I will mention the "Turkish MD-83 accident" and suggest some reviews of procedures.
xxx
I will however, mention one thing. As a pilot, I will never descend "as soon as I can", based on MEA or radar MSA for approaches, as I see many pilots do. I descend at the latest possible point, as cleared or able to do, but, instead, based on the distance to be flown to touchdown, which is for most jet planes, to be at 10,000 feet AGL if 30 NM away, 6,000 AGL if 20 NM, 3,000 if at 10 NM, and 1,000 AGL about 3 NM from the deck. Agreed...? Altitude often implies safety. I dont need to be at 3,000 feet AGL 20 NM away, at Vref and configured for landing unless ATC instruct me and requires me to do so, especially at night, with a "black hole" in front of us.
xxx

Happy contrails
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Old 2nd Dec 2007, 00:52
  #104 (permalink)  
 
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PBL says:
The craft has some considerable forward momentum at 140 kts (nose up or not). If the tail hits, the nose comes down. And stays, and slides. You don't lose 140 kts forward by converting it suddenly into rotation.

The pictures of the wing-box/rump from behind show the trees and no sliding trace, so assuming a tail strike at 140 kts airspeed this part would have had to have bounced into the air from this initial impact and come down again. I don't quite picture that. My intuition still tells me that with a tail strike and 140kts forward and still flying there is going to be a lengthy trace on the ground; which there isn't.
I am reminded of videos of the A-10 crash as Paris LBG in June 1977. Tail struck the ground first and was immediately disabled (bent upwards) - the remainder of the the ship skidded straight to a stop. (I lost a former student, Howard "Sam" Nelson, that day.)

Applying this scenario to the MD83 case, if he recognized rising terrain and pitched up, we might see a similar outcome - skidding uphill.
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Old 2nd Dec 2007, 04:57
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Ibelieveicanfly: not just -87....MD-82/83 were delivered with EFIS as standard after about 1988...about the time the green paint in the cockpit turned grey. FMS (loran-based) was optional. Dual FMS (INS-based) came later. RNO jets had EFIS and FMS. The chaotic cockpit has the displays partly hidden behind the control column, leading to the sub-conscious 'leaning scan'.

I agree with 411A here - how on earth did we ever find our way in the 1011? No ND....terrible....

Here's my stoking the rumours time:

All I can see from the photos is:

Leading edge slats are deployed inboard (look like 'land' position, but impact could have jolted the actuators downwards)

The stab has considerable nose-up trim (there's a single screw jack in there -unlikely to jolt); don't know where the 50 pax were seated...ie don't know likely trim setting for light aircraft...

If you look carefully at the blown up photo of the tail, you can just make out the leading edge of the elevator sticking up ...from behind the stab hinge line. I looked at this because if there was a slow-speed condition, the MD-80 series has a hyd stick pusher actuator that pushes the elevator (not the entire tailplane) nose down at 3000psi - ie: leading edge up. Doesn't mean impact couldn't have jolted it there, either....the elevators free float otherwise, but they are mass-balanced...

The fuel tanks look like they are ripped completely open beneath the overwing heater blankets - you can see the lower inspection panels in one of the pics, from inside the wing...

There, that's sure to cause flamethrowers...no opinions, just observations...what's wrong with that with on PPRUNE? Incoming...
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Old 2nd Dec 2007, 06:22
  #106 (permalink)  
 
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http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?t=77499
Some very interesting reading from the THY crash in 2003
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Old 2nd Dec 2007, 07:46
  #107 (permalink)  
 
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Very sad event, indeed. We learn very slowly: http://aviation-safety.net/database/...?id=19811201-1
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Old 2nd Dec 2007, 08:59
  #108 (permalink)  
 
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The insider testimonies from MD-80 drivers with bankruptcy-ridden World Focus, who operated the AtlasJet flight on wetlease, are not that encouraging:

http://www.md80.net/yabbse/index.php?topic=1765.0

Delayed salary payments, recruitment problems, whole business grounded March to May 2007, frequent search for new capital plus new owners, sub-standard technical conditions of the aircraft, full elec power blackouts, engine fires, get the money where you can get at least some, get the spares where you can get them, frequent short-time ops in Iran, Eritrea...

Over at MD-80 Forum we are starting getting these scary "stick-shakers" about how airlines operating ageing cheap airliners are run - you hear these signals 6 to 12 months in advance, and you can start betting they are going to crash soon.

Specific Isparta followup here:

http://www.md80.net/yabbse/index.php...=4007.msg12552
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Old 2nd Dec 2007, 10:31
  #109 (permalink)  
 
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Okay, fine, dynamics:

In the East Granby, CT incident, mentioned above, an MD-83 cut a trough eight feet deep and 290 feet long in the forest two and a half miles from the threshold. In addition to losing both engines, there was damage to various aircraft parts, including the horizontal stabilizer, and leading edges of the wings, and scrapes/punctures to the fuselage. No damage was reported forward of the front wing spar.
So a descending MD-83 could very well strike tail-first. And the Uruguayan Fairchild CFIT hit wing first, which sheared off the tail.
As for no signs of slide, we don't have a photograph clearly showing the wreckage according to the direction of travel, and what photos we do have, suggest that it did slide to that position. The IHT photograph shows the wings and attached fuselage having come to a rest at a 45 degree right angle to the direction of travel (right-to-left in the photograph). To the right you can see a tree that has been knocked over, and you can see the black streak going off to the left where the forward half of the fuselage continued traveling and disintegrating.

Once metal hits terrain, all kinds of complicated dynamics take place, and even to make an educated guess, we'd need at least some larger view of the terrain and direction of travel. But I don't think we can say that the evidence points to a "low-speed" impact.
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Old 2nd Dec 2007, 11:14
  #110 (permalink)  
 
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http://www.airdisaster.com/forums/sh...5&page=4&pp=25
Here is a link from another site with some more pics, shows what someone thinks is the initial impact point in relation to the wreckage.
These are originally from a Turkish newspaper.
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Old 2nd Dec 2007, 11:45
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I believe "md80forum" is on to a much more interesting track, at this stage anyway.
Delayed salary payments, recruitment problems, whole business grounded March to May 2007, frequent search for new capital plus new owners, sub-standard technical conditions of the aircraft, full elec power blackouts, engine fires, get the money where you can get at least some, get the spares where you can get them, frequent short-time ops in Iran, Eritrea...
Over at MD-80 Forum we are starting getting these scary "stick-shakers" about how airlines operating ageing cheap airliners are run - you hear these signals 6 to 12 months in advance, and you can start betting they are going to crash soon.
Problem here is that in some of the "eastern european" countries, and also Middle east, Northern Africa/Turkey, the safety culture is just not the same as in EU/US, GENERALLY speaking... A friend of mine got his "lucky break" and landed his first airline job in turkey. He left six months later, not because he did not like staying in Turkey, he actually quite enjoyed it, but because he was scared. Yes, scared. If even half of his stories are true, then Im afraid there are more accidents/incidents to come.
As md80 rightly states there are clear signs months, sometimes years, before something happens. Most of the time cash, or rather the lack of cash, is the root of the problem. Safety costs money, lost of money, simple as that. EU can help improving the safety standard in surrounding countries by being more proactive in auditing and setting clear standards for airlines wanting to operate in and out of EU. This will force airlines to develop and improve safety. We have a responsibility here as well.....
/CP
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Old 2nd Dec 2007, 13:00
  #112 (permalink)  
 
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to captainprop:
I agree with you.
I flew many years MD80 serie and this a very reliable acft but of course it must be in a good condition like any acft
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Old 2nd Dec 2007, 13:32
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ibelieveicanfly,

No Iīm not confusing to MD-87... For example take a look:

http://www.groundspeedrecords.com/re...3%20603kts.htm

I have personally flown everything from "old" instrument (HSI/RMI only) to "latest" EFIS/ND/GPS/INS/FMS/HUD/DIGITAL ENGINE INSTRUMENTS/ALL YOU CAN GET WITH MONEY -MD83īs and all kind of mix between...Itīs no big secret that your situational awareness is greater with the EFIS plane but itīs not either a big secret that somebody can CFIT the plane with EFISīs...ND is only showing you what you have selected, as we all know
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Old 2nd Dec 2007, 21:50
  #114 (permalink)  
 
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Culture

MD80 Forum indicates my fears (somewhat timidly expressed)may have a basis. It is so often culture - not just national but company - The signs were all there for Helios but nobody did anything.
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Old 3rd Dec 2007, 06:00
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According to the Turkish media, the plane had EGPWS.
They are saying the captain has failed the simulator training and was not promoted to captain at his former job and resigned from there. He was promoted at World Focus airlines.

The first officer was a former air force pilot who has flown f-4's and f-16's
The news stories claim the captain wanted to take a short cut and he was not familiar with the airport. He approached from the opposite direction and hit the terrain.
I don't have the time to translate all the news stories, but friends who have done landings at that airport are saying that it looks like a pilot error, and the shortcut speculation is most likely to be true.

Last edited by decemberflower; 3rd Dec 2007 at 06:11.
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Old 3rd Dec 2007, 08:58
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We spend a lot of time slagging journalists off, but in this case it appears that the Turkish press are accurately relecting the private opinions of the Turkish aviation community on this tragic event.
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Old 3rd Dec 2007, 11:49
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Why is the First Officer who was an ex Military something General now a martyr. If they really had a CFIT ( probably YES ) they are fully responsible for the death of more than 50 people. This is ridiculous.

I flew couple years in Turkey and the attitude of many of the ex military guys is very dangerous.

Very sad again for Turkey. And unfortunately they wont learn.

I feel so sorry for the PAX and Cabin Crew.

Safe landings to everybody
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Old 3rd Dec 2007, 12:55
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These small charter companies in Turkey leave a lot to be desired.
Onur Air is another one that is just an accident waiting on a place to happen.
They were previously banned from the EU.
Back in 2003 they touched down in Medina KSA with the gear up, a few days later another one taxied into a light pole all on the Saudia contract.
I think the Turkish people are getting fed up with these low cost airlines and the accidents that have happened, most due to pilot error.
It is surprising to read these things from there own media as they are really proud people, shows that things are changing.
Some of these companies are really slow to pay the crews, many times no salary for weeks or months, the crews then push things so the company can make a profit in the hopes that they will collect there salary.
I have heard many Turkish pilots state this.
The one a few years ago with THY a major airline that tried to land with zero vis and no ILS.
I think 5 pax survived that one.
Just makes you wonder what is going on there?

Last edited by Earl; 3rd Dec 2007 at 13:19.
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Old 3rd Dec 2007, 13:08
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should we really say "pilot error"?

sorry, it is the entire way we train, supervise, test, and corporate philosophy that should be blamed.

Make it corporate philosophy to give a bonus for each well flown instrument approach and every pilot will fly the full instrument approach. Give a bonus to save money and you will end up on the side of the mountain.

Don't make it corporate philosophy to save fuel (see continental)

I guess you get my drift by now.

too many times, short cuts, looking out the window and abandoning the full IFR procedures leads to an untimely event.
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Old 3rd Dec 2007, 13:25
  #120 (permalink)  
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How many more people are going to die before the authorities make use of modern technology? For a few hundred quid you can buy a gps pda that knows all the terrain in the direction you're going, not just underneath you, and will display it as red if you're about to hit it. Loony regulations and tight management prevent such basic aids from saving life. People have got to wake up to the fact that low-cost and third-world growth means the old model of highly professional pilots has got to be adjusted. It's no use whingeing on - we need to stick more safety equipment on planes and in control towers.
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