Pilot shortage predicted in 3 Yrs
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Pilot shortage predicted in 3 Yrs
Just received the latest BALPA newsletter and it claims there will be a requirement for 2500-5000 pilots over the next 3-6 years. Easy Jet,Ryanair and DHL are doing the bulk of the hiring with a annual requirement for 600 pilots between the three.Lots of other positive news in the letter and so things are definetely looking up.
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I have heard this for the last 12 - 15 years. During this period a supposed pilot shortage has always been lurking just around the corner and it has never happened. Don't get me wrong, I sincerely hope it does occur as it will inflate my salary, but from past experience, I can only conclude that it never will.
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All figures quoted before I believe. Rather like a Chancellor's budget in the House of Commons I fear.
There will be a shortage of suitably qualified type rated people without a doubt I am sure. However, reality suggests until we are firmly wearing the boots on our feet not a lot will change. Management will always seek to take the p?ss.
The reality is for wannabees with low hours you should look at the names mentioned...DHL,Go,easyJet etc....all BIG JET operators. The sad reality is that unless you get very lucky, you should still concentrate on the smaller operators for that first elusive break in a right seat.
It sounds negative, but it is reality i fear.
Shoot me down if you will.......
WWW/Scroggs, any thoughts on the new BALPA publication?
Regards.
There will be a shortage of suitably qualified type rated people without a doubt I am sure. However, reality suggests until we are firmly wearing the boots on our feet not a lot will change. Management will always seek to take the p?ss.
The reality is for wannabees with low hours you should look at the names mentioned...DHL,Go,easyJet etc....all BIG JET operators. The sad reality is that unless you get very lucky, you should still concentrate on the smaller operators for that first elusive break in a right seat.
It sounds negative, but it is reality i fear.
Shoot me down if you will.......
WWW/Scroggs, any thoughts on the new BALPA publication?
Regards.
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Prior to commencing my commercial pilot training in 1999, I sought the advice of a 'Commercial Pilot Consultant', who (for a large fee) planned my training schedule, and gave his expert advice on becoming a professional pilot.
He produced numerous graphs, charts, written articles, etc. which predicted the forthcoming pilot shortage, and subsequent hiring boom. These documents all indicated that there would be one year in particular when there would be jobs galore. One year when the demand for new pilots would outstrip supply. One year when airline training captains and personnel managers would be forced to hang around bars in the vicinity of the major flying schools, waiting to pounce on unsuspecting students, plying them with copious amounts of alcohol, before feverishly pushing contracts under their noses.
The year in question was................................2002.
He produced numerous graphs, charts, written articles, etc. which predicted the forthcoming pilot shortage, and subsequent hiring boom. These documents all indicated that there would be one year in particular when there would be jobs galore. One year when the demand for new pilots would outstrip supply. One year when airline training captains and personnel managers would be forced to hang around bars in the vicinity of the major flying schools, waiting to pounce on unsuspecting students, plying them with copious amounts of alcohol, before feverishly pushing contracts under their noses.
The year in question was................................2002.
I don't believe the figures - they are pure speculation. What sort of figures were being quoted before 9/11?
But the fact is that all airlines have stopped their cadet programmes. Should there be an upturn - the signs indicate there is one on the way, they will soon be in the situation similar to the one after the Gulf War when all training stopped. In 1993-4, all you had to have to get a job was a pulse and a license.
Individuals have been put off from self-sponsoring since 9/11, the schools are running at half capacity. Also, there are less military pilots than there were - and some in the British military are being tempted by the new Financial Retention Incentives and the job security the military offers.
Reading the signs, I think a shortage is on the way.
But the fact is that all airlines have stopped their cadet programmes. Should there be an upturn - the signs indicate there is one on the way, they will soon be in the situation similar to the one after the Gulf War when all training stopped. In 1993-4, all you had to have to get a job was a pulse and a license.
Individuals have been put off from self-sponsoring since 9/11, the schools are running at half capacity. Also, there are less military pilots than there were - and some in the British military are being tempted by the new Financial Retention Incentives and the job security the military offers.
Reading the signs, I think a shortage is on the way.
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How anyone can say that the signs indicate a pilot shortage is on the way mystifies me.
How many airlines have gone "tits up" in the last 8 months? I can think of five just off the top of my head, and they're in Europe alone.
How many pilots have been laid off? I don't know but world wide, it's in the thousands.
How many airlines are struggling to make ends meet? and so on and so on.
To me, none of these signs indicate a pilot shortage now, soon or any time at all.
Sorry to be the barer of bad news, but that's just the way I see it.
How many airlines have gone "tits up" in the last 8 months? I can think of five just off the top of my head, and they're in Europe alone.
How many pilots have been laid off? I don't know but world wide, it's in the thousands.
How many airlines are struggling to make ends meet? and so on and so on.
To me, none of these signs indicate a pilot shortage now, soon or any time at all.
Sorry to be the barer of bad news, but that's just the way I see it.
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If it is of any interest I happen to know that one major charter airline is considering an ab-initio sponsorship in the not too distant future. Things can't be that bad, although one does ask the question, why do so when there are so many qualified pilots out there, type rated and non type rated?
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There may not be a shortage of pilots round the corner, but before 9/11 there was most definitely a shortage of quality pilots brewing. In retrospect, 9/11 will look like a small blip on the hiring graph, however large it looms at present. While airlines have gone TU, others have prospered. Pilots continue to retire, and fewer trainees are entering the industry at the moment.
The problem the airlines have is that it takes more than a fATPL to be the right recruitment material. Flight schools churn out both excellent and unemployable graduates. During the next couple of years there will be a shortage of the excellent. There will also be people who are unable to get jobs, having just got their fATPL and they will be on PPRuNe wondering why.
The problem the airlines have is that it takes more than a fATPL to be the right recruitment material. Flight schools churn out both excellent and unemployable graduates. During the next couple of years there will be a shortage of the excellent. There will also be people who are unable to get jobs, having just got their fATPL and they will be on PPRuNe wondering why.
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Yeah I do wonder about that from time to time ... a certain nameless student of mine failed his PPL performance and loading exam by a pretty enormous margin and had to re sit it a couple of times ... no big deal, except the guy already worked as a flight dispatcher 
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Don't get your hopes up too high just yet!
Remember that the point of the Balpa article was to highlight the lack of industry effort in training for the future. They are trying to persuade the airlines to cough up and plan for training years ahead, rather than the crisis management that they traditionally indulge in. To reinforce their point, they are using the statistics that most help their case. I think most readers of that article will apply a bit of realism to those figures!
An obvious example of the ambiguity of these kind of statistics is that Balpa have used Ryanair and Easyjet's highest projections of their pilot needs for the next ten years. It seems obvious to me that the real figures are likely to be somewhat lower, especially as these two directly compete against each other and are unlikely to realise all their plans! The absorbtion of Go and probably Deutsche BA, by EZ will also seriously alter those forecasts. Equally, bmibaby are unlikely to expand as fast as they say they will. Buzz may well leave the marketplace altogether, at least in UK - either that or they'll get reabsorbed into KLM Uk. I'd suggest that you take the Balpa figure of 1640-2580 new jobs in this sector over the next 3 years as more realistically 800-1000.
You'll notice, if you have access to the article, that Balpa doesn't suggest any expansion of the major UK airlines, but looks for expansion in air freight, mentioning specifically DHL, UPS and Air Atlas. Of course, they forget to mention that these guys also compete against each other and that they are also unlikely all to expand as much as they'd like.
The other part of the Balpa argument is the so-called 'retirement bulge', quoting 371 retirements from BA 2002-5. Spookily, BA have said that they need to lose 400 flight deck posts in this time scale! Recruiting problem? I don't think so. They suggest that all the other UK airlines will lose 66 pilots each year over the same period - 198 total. I think that there are considerably more than 198 pilots ready and available to take up those posts, don't you? And if retirements really do become a problem, BA could always up its retirement age to 60 in line with the rest of us.
My point is that this article is to back up a specific argument - about airline training. It isn't really a serious comment on your job prospects over the next few years and, because of its aim, it gives an over-optimistic view of the number of pilots needed in that time. So don't get your hopes up too much; remember there are somewhere around 1000 type-rated and experienced pilots still on the dole, and there are new guys graduating from the training system all the time with no jobs to go to - yet.
The outlook is by no means as gloomy as it was, but neither should you believe the assumptions in this article. They just don't add up!
An obvious example of the ambiguity of these kind of statistics is that Balpa have used Ryanair and Easyjet's highest projections of their pilot needs for the next ten years. It seems obvious to me that the real figures are likely to be somewhat lower, especially as these two directly compete against each other and are unlikely to realise all their plans! The absorbtion of Go and probably Deutsche BA, by EZ will also seriously alter those forecasts. Equally, bmibaby are unlikely to expand as fast as they say they will. Buzz may well leave the marketplace altogether, at least in UK - either that or they'll get reabsorbed into KLM Uk. I'd suggest that you take the Balpa figure of 1640-2580 new jobs in this sector over the next 3 years as more realistically 800-1000.
You'll notice, if you have access to the article, that Balpa doesn't suggest any expansion of the major UK airlines, but looks for expansion in air freight, mentioning specifically DHL, UPS and Air Atlas. Of course, they forget to mention that these guys also compete against each other and that they are also unlikely all to expand as much as they'd like.
The other part of the Balpa argument is the so-called 'retirement bulge', quoting 371 retirements from BA 2002-5. Spookily, BA have said that they need to lose 400 flight deck posts in this time scale! Recruiting problem? I don't think so. They suggest that all the other UK airlines will lose 66 pilots each year over the same period - 198 total. I think that there are considerably more than 198 pilots ready and available to take up those posts, don't you? And if retirements really do become a problem, BA could always up its retirement age to 60 in line with the rest of us.
My point is that this article is to back up a specific argument - about airline training. It isn't really a serious comment on your job prospects over the next few years and, because of its aim, it gives an over-optimistic view of the number of pilots needed in that time. So don't get your hopes up too much; remember there are somewhere around 1000 type-rated and experienced pilots still on the dole, and there are new guys graduating from the training system all the time with no jobs to go to - yet.
The outlook is by no means as gloomy as it was, but neither should you believe the assumptions in this article. They just don't add up!
Last edited by scroggs; 25th May 2002 at 20:45.
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And not to mention that now after GO-easyjet-DBA has occured MOL has decided to take all of the options from Boeing. That means 150 pilots a year going to Ryanair!!!
I am far too merry to post a reply. For now I with Scorgs.
The pilot shortage is mytchical,l
WWW
EDIT I leave the above as an illustration of the dangers of posting post public house!
The pilot shortage is mytchical,l
WWW
EDIT I leave the above as an illustration of the dangers of posting post public house!
Last edited by Wee Weasley Welshman; 26th May 2002 at 10:38.
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Looks to me like the wiley welshman is suffering from amber syndrome. Not flying today then W ?
Pilot shortage ? - ahh it would be nice. Optimism costs nought. I'm sure Scorgs would agree.
Pilot shortage ? - ahh it would be nice. Optimism costs nought. I'm sure Scorgs would agree.
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I'm not a green, but where's all the fuel going to come frame? Iraq, Alaska, Russia? I know this is a really negative comment but I ain't that sure it'll be cost effective to fill-up in 10 years time. As supply decreases, price will increase. As price increases, demand for seats will decrease. As demand for seats decreases, less planes. As less planes, less pilots...
This will cause airlines to opt to cut costs, UAV, remote control operations etc. Unless fuel cell development comes a long way, very quickly - we could be.....
VT
This will cause airlines to opt to cut costs, UAV, remote control operations etc. Unless fuel cell development comes a long way, very quickly - we could be.....
VT
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I think people are giving these numerical quantative pilot number predictions a bit too credit than they're worth.
Looking at the industry qualitatively, post Sep 11, the beancounters all raced to slash costs immediately, and Pilot numbers were reduced (in some amusing knee jerk cases too much!) to the leanest possible numbers the planned rosters could cope with. Remember those post Sep 11 economic forecasts predicting global economic meltdown and world anarchy?!! So you can hardly blame them for wanting to batton down the hatches when they had the opportunity, and the whole Airline industry was doing likewise.
But this means that very nearly ALL the Airlines are currently operating close to their minimum crewing requirement and it is just a matter of time before all the Airlines will suddenly want to start recruiting, and it will happen quickly and all at the same time.
Currently Airline recruiters are sat fat dumb and happy with a few type rated, current, and suitable guys floating around but this number is being whittled away at as we speak and is much smaller than everyone thinks. I think Airlines who want to recruit type rated guys better move before the others to avoid paying the Sim and base checks themselves.
I think at most Sep 11 has caused around a 12-18 month pause in the Airlines future plans, and hence the recruitment market. Airlines are bringing their heads out of the sand and are looking to get back on track as per their pre Sep 11 business plans, otherwise their competitors will happily take the lead for them.
THE EUROPEAN AIRLINE INDUSTRY HAS RECOVERED, DONT BELIEVE THE MANAGEMENT COST CUTTING SPIN!!!
THE RECRUITMENT DRIVES WILL START SOON AND IT WILL INCLUDE NEARLY ALL AIRLINES WHICH ARE CURRENTLY AT THEIR LEANEST FOR YEARS, AND IT WILL HAPPEN QUICK, YOU GOTTA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
Looking at the industry qualitatively, post Sep 11, the beancounters all raced to slash costs immediately, and Pilot numbers were reduced (in some amusing knee jerk cases too much!) to the leanest possible numbers the planned rosters could cope with. Remember those post Sep 11 economic forecasts predicting global economic meltdown and world anarchy?!! So you can hardly blame them for wanting to batton down the hatches when they had the opportunity, and the whole Airline industry was doing likewise.
But this means that very nearly ALL the Airlines are currently operating close to their minimum crewing requirement and it is just a matter of time before all the Airlines will suddenly want to start recruiting, and it will happen quickly and all at the same time.
Currently Airline recruiters are sat fat dumb and happy with a few type rated, current, and suitable guys floating around but this number is being whittled away at as we speak and is much smaller than everyone thinks. I think Airlines who want to recruit type rated guys better move before the others to avoid paying the Sim and base checks themselves.
I think at most Sep 11 has caused around a 12-18 month pause in the Airlines future plans, and hence the recruitment market. Airlines are bringing their heads out of the sand and are looking to get back on track as per their pre Sep 11 business plans, otherwise their competitors will happily take the lead for them.
THE EUROPEAN AIRLINE INDUSTRY HAS RECOVERED, DONT BELIEVE THE MANAGEMENT COST CUTTING SPIN!!!
THE RECRUITMENT DRIVES WILL START SOON AND IT WILL INCLUDE NEARLY ALL AIRLINES WHICH ARE CURRENTLY AT THEIR LEANEST FOR YEARS, AND IT WILL HAPPEN QUICK, YOU GOTTA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
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I understand what Scroggs is saying but if everything is looking so gloomy then why, as I stated in my previous post, is a major charter outfit looking to train up a number of ab-initio cadets?
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If you understand what I was saying, you will realise that I wasn't being gloomy at all, but suggesting that you take the Balpa figures with a large pinch of salt. These figures are to back up a specific worst-case argument, and do not really form a realistic look at the immediate future.
As for airlines being ready to resume their commercial plans from before 11 Sep, most were already in decline and looking towards contraction rather than expansion. The main effects of Sep 11th are that the major airlines' capacity was cut to fit the anticipated reduced demand, and a price war began because no-one wanted to reduce capacity quite as much as they probably should have done. In other words, there were, and are still, more seats than customers - and the customers we have ain't paying very much, so there's very little profit to fund any immediate re-expansion. Even Balpa's figures recognise that only the low-cost operators and freight lines are likely to show any significant expansio over the next 3-5 years.
It's not all bad, by any means - and it's a bloody sight better than it was 6 months ago, but don't get too carried away!
As for airlines being ready to resume their commercial plans from before 11 Sep, most were already in decline and looking towards contraction rather than expansion. The main effects of Sep 11th are that the major airlines' capacity was cut to fit the anticipated reduced demand, and a price war began because no-one wanted to reduce capacity quite as much as they probably should have done. In other words, there were, and are still, more seats than customers - and the customers we have ain't paying very much, so there's very little profit to fund any immediate re-expansion. Even Balpa's figures recognise that only the low-cost operators and freight lines are likely to show any significant expansio over the next 3-5 years.
It's not all bad, by any means - and it's a bloody sight better than it was 6 months ago, but don't get too carried away!
cabinkitten - do you mean Britannia?
They are past masters at making noises about cadet schemes but in totality they never amounted to much.
Any Charter operator thinking of running a cadetship could save a fortune by simply hiring the ex-Airtours cadets not taken on poast 9/11. Some are flying turboprops in regional airlines others finished training only to stack supermarket shelves.
All were selected from thousands of applicants and trained to high standards. All are available tomorrow for a Jet course...
WWW
ps Not to mention the BMI cadets still looking for work.
pps Or the Aer Lingus.
ppps You get the picture.
They are past masters at making noises about cadet schemes but in totality they never amounted to much.
Any Charter operator thinking of running a cadetship could save a fortune by simply hiring the ex-Airtours cadets not taken on poast 9/11. Some are flying turboprops in regional airlines others finished training only to stack supermarket shelves.
All were selected from thousands of applicants and trained to high standards. All are available tomorrow for a Jet course...
WWW
ps Not to mention the BMI cadets still looking for work.
pps Or the Aer Lingus.
ppps You get the picture.