I don't believe the figures - they are pure speculation. What sort of figures were being quoted before 9/11?
But the fact is that all airlines have stopped their cadet programmes. Should there be an upturn - the signs indicate there is one on the way, they will soon be in the situation similar to the one after the Gulf War when all training stopped. In 1993-4, all you had to have to get a job was a pulse and a license.
Individuals have been put off from self-sponsoring since 9/11, the schools are running at half capacity. Also, there are less military pilots than there were - and some in the British military are being tempted by the new Financial Retention Incentives and the job security the military offers.
Reading the signs, I think a shortage is on the way.