I think people are giving these numerical quantative pilot number predictions a bit too credit than they're worth.
Looking at the industry qualitatively, post Sep 11, the beancounters all raced to slash costs immediately, and Pilot numbers were reduced (in some amusing knee jerk cases too much!) to the leanest possible numbers the planned rosters could cope with. Remember those post Sep 11 economic forecasts predicting global economic meltdown and world anarchy?!! So you can hardly blame them for wanting to batton down the hatches when they had the opportunity, and the whole Airline industry was doing likewise.
But this means that very nearly ALL the Airlines are currently operating close to their minimum crewing requirement and it is just a matter of time before all the Airlines will suddenly want to start recruiting, and it will happen quickly and all at the same time.
Currently Airline recruiters are sat fat dumb and happy with a few type rated, current, and suitable guys floating around but this number is being whittled away at as we speak and is much smaller than everyone thinks. I think Airlines who want to recruit type rated guys better move before the others to avoid paying the Sim and base checks themselves.
I think at most Sep 11 has caused around a 12-18 month pause in the Airlines future plans, and hence the recruitment market. Airlines are bringing their heads out of the sand and are looking to get back on track as per their pre Sep 11 business plans, otherwise their competitors will happily take the lead for them.
THE EUROPEAN AIRLINE INDUSTRY HAS RECOVERED, DONT BELIEVE THE MANAGEMENT COST CUTTING SPIN!!!
THE RECRUITMENT DRIVES WILL START SOON AND IT WILL INCLUDE NEARLY ALL AIRLINES WHICH ARE CURRENTLY AT THEIR LEANEST FOR YEARS, AND IT WILL HAPPEN QUICK, YOU GOTTA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!