PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Pilot shortage predicted in 3 Yrs
View Single Post
Old 26th May 2002, 22:14
  #19 (permalink)  
scroggs
 
Join Date: Dec 1997
Location: Suffolk UK
Posts: 4,927
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
If you understand what I was saying, you will realise that I wasn't being gloomy at all, but suggesting that you take the Balpa figures with a large pinch of salt. These figures are to back up a specific worst-case argument, and do not really form a realistic look at the immediate future.

As for airlines being ready to resume their commercial plans from before 11 Sep, most were already in decline and looking towards contraction rather than expansion. The main effects of Sep 11th are that the major airlines' capacity was cut to fit the anticipated reduced demand, and a price war began because no-one wanted to reduce capacity quite as much as they probably should have done. In other words, there were, and are still, more seats than customers - and the customers we have ain't paying very much, so there's very little profit to fund any immediate re-expansion. Even Balpa's figures recognise that only the low-cost operators and freight lines are likely to show any significant expansio over the next 3-5 years.

It's not all bad, by any means - and it's a bloody sight better than it was 6 months ago, but don't get too carried away!
scroggs is offline