Don't get your hopes up too high just yet!
Remember that the point of the Balpa article was to highlight the lack of industry effort in training for the future. They are trying to persuade the airlines to cough up and plan for training years ahead, rather than the crisis management that they traditionally indulge in. To reinforce their point, they are using the statistics that most help their case. I think most readers of that article will apply a bit of realism to those figures!
An obvious example of the ambiguity of these kind of statistics is that Balpa have used Ryanair and Easyjet's highest projections of their pilot needs for the next ten years. It seems obvious to me that the real figures are likely to be somewhat lower, especially as these two directly compete against each other and are unlikely to realise all their plans! The absorbtion of Go and probably Deutsche BA, by EZ will also seriously alter those forecasts. Equally, bmibaby are unlikely to expand as fast as they say they will. Buzz may well leave the marketplace altogether, at least in UK - either that or they'll get reabsorbed into KLM Uk. I'd suggest that you take the Balpa figure of 1640-2580 new jobs in this sector over the next 3 years as more realistically 800-1000.
You'll notice, if you have access to the article, that Balpa doesn't suggest any expansion of the major UK airlines, but looks for expansion in air freight, mentioning specifically DHL, UPS and Air Atlas. Of course, they forget to mention that these guys also compete against each other and that they are also unlikely all to expand as much as they'd like.
The other part of the Balpa argument is the so-called 'retirement bulge', quoting 371 retirements from BA 2002-5. Spookily, BA have said that they need to lose 400 flight deck posts in this time scale! Recruiting problem? I don't think so. They suggest that all the other UK airlines will lose 66 pilots each year over the same period - 198 total. I think that there are considerably more than 198 pilots ready and available to take up those posts, don't you? And if retirements really do become a problem, BA could always up its retirement age to 60 in line with the rest of us.
My point is that this article is to back up a specific argument - about airline training. It isn't really a serious comment on your job prospects over the next few years and, because of its aim, it gives an over-optimistic view of the number of pilots needed in that time. So don't get your hopes up too much; remember there are somewhere around 1000 type-rated and experienced pilots still on the dole, and there are new guys graduating from the training system all the time with no jobs to go to - yet.
The outlook is by no means as gloomy as it was, but neither should you believe the assumptions in this article. They just don't add up!
Last edited by scroggs; 25th May 2002 at 20:45.