Pilot shortage predicted in 3 Yrs
There was a recession on even before September 11th. Now there's a recovery on. To quote the eminent economist, Professor Paul Samuelson, "economists have a very long way to go as a policy-advising profession". As a general rule, the more specific an economic forecast is, the less likely it is to be accurate. Mind you, the actuaries are better - all those old capts have to jack it in one day, given that the population in most Western countries is ageing fast. That is a trend that will survive the ups-n-downs of the airline business.
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Oh just be positive!!!!
Why do we allways speculate and shoot each other down?
The times I've put up positive posts about recruitment, and some moaner who obviuosly is the most pesimistic person in the world, just goes;
"Ohh I dont know, this is all myth, its not true, I havent heard anything at all, it's all a load of crap, actually the statistics show..."
Well just shutup!
Just take it as a tiny piece of hope that may have a chance of being true. Just give all the wannabes a break, we need rumours like these, so just let them go!!!
It keeps us happy!!!!
The times I've put up positive posts about recruitment, and some moaner who obviuosly is the most pesimistic person in the world, just goes;
"Ohh I dont know, this is all myth, its not true, I havent heard anything at all, it's all a load of crap, actually the statistics show..."
Well just shutup!
Just take it as a tiny piece of hope that may have a chance of being true. Just give all the wannabes a break, we need rumours like these, so just let them go!!!
It keeps us happy!!!!
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Fine, we'll just keep telling you that everything is for the best in this, the best of all possible worlds. Or why don't you get your Mummy to read you a few fairy tales when you go to bed? They'll be about as much use to you!
Part of preparing for your future is maximising your opportunities in difficult times. To do that, you have to be well-informed. Platitudes and wishful thinking just will not help.
But you go ahead! Let us know how the real world feels when you wake up!
Part of preparing for your future is maximising your opportunities in difficult times. To do that, you have to be well-informed. Platitudes and wishful thinking just will not help.
But you go ahead! Let us know how the real world feels when you wake up!
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I have been in the pilot training "game" since 1975,in that time I have seen the saw tooth graph of pilot supply and demand through all its violent swings.
However, throughout this period I know of not one pilot who has not obtained an airline job.
Some did have to wait a little while though.
Patience will be rewarded.
(Some of the guys I trained back in the late 70's have now retired from the airlines)
regards
However, throughout this period I know of not one pilot who has not obtained an airline job.
Some did have to wait a little while though.
Patience will be rewarded.
(Some of the guys I trained back in the late 70's have now retired from the airlines)
regards
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I gotta agree with Speedbird here, i slog my ass off to do my ATPL's like every other wannabe and come on here hoping to hear a glimer of hope of any news of recruitment etc...an it p***es me off to hear ....blah blah no-ones recruiting at the moment and won't be for the next 20 years blah blah. If your gonna post that then don't bother i'd rather not hear it!
Yeah the truth hurts but when i'm shellin out all this cash i wanna hear something a little more motivating
This place should be called P Doom and Gloom.
Yeah the truth hurts but when i'm shellin out all this cash i wanna hear something a little more motivating
This place should be called P Doom and Gloom.
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And I've no doubt you bought your ISA from Aberdeen Technology in March 2000, your insurance from Equitable Life, your power from Enron, and you're just thinking about buying into Marconi!
We are not here to tell you what you want to hear; we are here to tell you the truth as we see it, based on our many collective years of experience. If you don't wish to take our advice, that's your prerogative, but rose-tinted views of the market don't help anyone except the recipients of your cash.
Don't get me wrong; I'm not aiming to put people off training, but I don't want people basing major investment and life decisions on inaccurate or misleading 'facts'.
We are not here to tell you what you want to hear; we are here to tell you the truth as we see it, based on our many collective years of experience. If you don't wish to take our advice, that's your prerogative, but rose-tinted views of the market don't help anyone except the recipients of your cash.
Don't get me wrong; I'm not aiming to put people off training, but I don't want people basing major investment and life decisions on inaccurate or misleading 'facts'.
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Hey guys, give scroggs a break, I for one am shelling out large amounts of cash for my frozen ATPL and am glad to hear the 'truth' about recruitment before I throw away anymore cash.
At the moment I'm looking at two/three years before I get my first break and I'm not expecting a jet job, although that is what I'm aiming for.
At the moment I'm looking at two/three years before I get my first break and I'm not expecting a jet job, although that is what I'm aiming for.
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My interpretation of what Steamhead is saying is not a pop at Scroggs and Wee Weasley as we know their credentials and respect their views, its the "Gloom and Doom" merchants who pop up, caste their seeds of worry and doubt then disappear without quantifying their source or reason for saying what they have.
I for one would be much more tolerant of what is said if someone were to say:
"Its not looking good, I'm a recruiter for airline X and we have no plans to recruit for another 12 months", that way even if its left as airline X it has a little more credence.
That sound is me stepping off my soap box.
Cheers all
TBL
I for one would be much more tolerant of what is said if someone were to say:
"Its not looking good, I'm a recruiter for airline X and we have no plans to recruit for another 12 months", that way even if its left as airline X it has a little more credence.
That sound is me stepping off my soap box.
Cheers all
TBL
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A view from across the pond,
I would like to jump into this discussion. I will start by saying I agree with Scrogs and WWW. They are both using the experience they have to help keep the playing field level. There is a reason they moderate this forum. Both know what they are talking about.
I on the other hand have limited experience and wish to give my two cents. Things here in Canada took a nose dive in the fall of 2001. It looked bad. It has been only 9 months and the recovery is starting and looks like it will be in full swing by the end of 2002. Our main charter operator Canada 3000 went tits up. Air Canada was talking layoffs. Westjet (Canada's Ryanair) never missed a beat. Industry wide restructuring has taken place and the hiring has begun. Air Canada took 20 folks this month and from talking to people at AC, will be taking many more in the near future. Westjet is hiring a gang every month. The regional carriers are starting to get thin. It is only a matter of time until they start bringing people in.
My point is that demand is the only factor. Europe from my view point is just a little behind my part of the world. It is a huge aviation market rivaled only by th US. It will take time, but it will come. Jet jobs maybe out of the question for many of you in the near future. This in my mind is a perfect opportunity to go out and have some real fun. Teach others how to fly. Fly a traffic aircraft or a crop duster. Go to Africa or the Maldives and fly tourists. Pull banners in Cancun. Go to Fiji and fly floats. Try out some bush flying here in Canada. It is all within reach. If you can get a licence to fly you can do all of these things. There is one sure thing in your career. If you want the big iron it will happen. In the mean time enjoy yourselves. In the end there are two things that will get you where you want to be. A log book full of hours and the people you meet along the way.
I have taken interest in the European job scene for one reason. In a year I will have a JAA ATPL with 3000 hours of flying time and serious want for a good job in the UK. My concerns are similar to those of you just breaking into the industry. My conversion will cost 1 year's worth of salary. It would be easy to give it up but I refuse. The reward will be worth it.
The time that I have built so far has been a riot. Flying numerous types of light turbo props all over Canada and the world. It has been brilliant. I will look back on it with excellent memories and lots of stories. That being said I am looking forward to moving on.
Our destiny as induviduals is controlled by only one thing. That of course is ourselves. Make the best of it.
Good luck ladies and gents.
I would like to jump into this discussion. I will start by saying I agree with Scrogs and WWW. They are both using the experience they have to help keep the playing field level. There is a reason they moderate this forum. Both know what they are talking about.
I on the other hand have limited experience and wish to give my two cents. Things here in Canada took a nose dive in the fall of 2001. It looked bad. It has been only 9 months and the recovery is starting and looks like it will be in full swing by the end of 2002. Our main charter operator Canada 3000 went tits up. Air Canada was talking layoffs. Westjet (Canada's Ryanair) never missed a beat. Industry wide restructuring has taken place and the hiring has begun. Air Canada took 20 folks this month and from talking to people at AC, will be taking many more in the near future. Westjet is hiring a gang every month. The regional carriers are starting to get thin. It is only a matter of time until they start bringing people in.
My point is that demand is the only factor. Europe from my view point is just a little behind my part of the world. It is a huge aviation market rivaled only by th US. It will take time, but it will come. Jet jobs maybe out of the question for many of you in the near future. This in my mind is a perfect opportunity to go out and have some real fun. Teach others how to fly. Fly a traffic aircraft or a crop duster. Go to Africa or the Maldives and fly tourists. Pull banners in Cancun. Go to Fiji and fly floats. Try out some bush flying here in Canada. It is all within reach. If you can get a licence to fly you can do all of these things. There is one sure thing in your career. If you want the big iron it will happen. In the mean time enjoy yourselves. In the end there are two things that will get you where you want to be. A log book full of hours and the people you meet along the way.
I have taken interest in the European job scene for one reason. In a year I will have a JAA ATPL with 3000 hours of flying time and serious want for a good job in the UK. My concerns are similar to those of you just breaking into the industry. My conversion will cost 1 year's worth of salary. It would be easy to give it up but I refuse. The reward will be worth it.
The time that I have built so far has been a riot. Flying numerous types of light turbo props all over Canada and the world. It has been brilliant. I will look back on it with excellent memories and lots of stories. That being said I am looking forward to moving on.
Our destiny as induviduals is controlled by only one thing. That of course is ourselves. Make the best of it.
Good luck ladies and gents.
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In Holland and Belgium flight schools have this "shortage in xxx years" line in all their brochures for years. Talk with an instructor and his eyes will start shining, euro signs appear in his eyes and he's sure you'll miss the boat if you don't start now spending your floepies now. Probably the same whereever there are flightschools.
In my opinion predicting the growth in passenger seats and future flights is something that is not without a lot of uncertainty, like the economy, stock prices or global warming. About the growth of the low-cost carriers. I ask myself what will happen if there is an accident in the future. (please god let's hope it'll never happen) We pilots won't point our finger immediately towards cost-saving measures but the public will. Hard to say the result but I do think people will prefer to pay a bit more to fly the 'classic' airlines again, resulting in job-losses at the low-cost airlines. By the way I'm not saying this is what's gonna happen, it's just thoughts on these matters.
In my opinion predicting the growth in passenger seats and future flights is something that is not without a lot of uncertainty, like the economy, stock prices or global warming. About the growth of the low-cost carriers. I ask myself what will happen if there is an accident in the future. (please god let's hope it'll never happen) We pilots won't point our finger immediately towards cost-saving measures but the public will. Hard to say the result but I do think people will prefer to pay a bit more to fly the 'classic' airlines again, resulting in job-losses at the low-cost airlines. By the way I'm not saying this is what's gonna happen, it's just thoughts on these matters.
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I am sure it is alot easier now to obtain airline jobs than back in the 1970's and 1980's. Its really a case of peaks and troughs. Some years are better than others. If you look back to the 1960's and 1970's there were fewer wannabes, but also fewer aeroplanes also. In addition to this, there were many hundreds of able RAF and RN pilots wanting their first break into the commercial scene. In todays world things are different, less RAF guys, more aeroplanes and the airline industry is worth ten times as much.
As for the people who get jobs it comes down to determination and willingness to sacrifice things in their life. This is only my opinion I hasten to add.
As for the people who get jobs it comes down to determination and willingness to sacrifice things in their life. This is only my opinion I hasten to add.
SpaceRanger
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No-one knows
"It is hard to predict, especially about the future"
but one thing is for sure, when pilots are needed again, it takes at least two years from scratch to get ready. Judging from history, I would say the worst time to start is 3 to 5 years into a economical peak period - chances are you are ready when the economic low starts. It would be better to start in the middle or end of a low period, to be ready when it is needed in the coming up period.
Now is not the worst time to start, if you plan on a two-year span of the education - I can't predict either, but something tells me this low is going to be shorter.
To those of you who are underway already, have just finished or are just plain unemployed like me (2000+ hours including jet time), well, take a number, line up in sequence and hope not too many collegues jump the line.
but one thing is for sure, when pilots are needed again, it takes at least two years from scratch to get ready. Judging from history, I would say the worst time to start is 3 to 5 years into a economical peak period - chances are you are ready when the economic low starts. It would be better to start in the middle or end of a low period, to be ready when it is needed in the coming up period.
Now is not the worst time to start, if you plan on a two-year span of the education - I can't predict either, but something tells me this low is going to be shorter.
To those of you who are underway already, have just finished or are just plain unemployed like me (2000+ hours including jet time), well, take a number, line up in sequence and hope not too many collegues jump the line.
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TheDrop
Yes, I think you're pretty much spot-on. The next six to twelve months are probably a good time to start training. That doesn't mean that there will be a job waiting for you when you graduate, but you should hit the upward slope of the economic cycle quite nicely! Of course, there is - and maybe still will be - a big backlog to clear, but unless you're in the queue you won't get what you're after!
Predicting the future is fraught with difficulties and traps. In deciding who to listen to, you're probably best ignoring the extremes of opinion. Balpa's (remember the start of this thread...?) opinion was, I think, extremely optimistic - as are probably those of most FTOs' marketing departments! You'll see others that are extremely pessimistic. The truth, as always, is somewhere in the middle - and only hindsight will prove who was right.....
Yes, I think you're pretty much spot-on. The next six to twelve months are probably a good time to start training. That doesn't mean that there will be a job waiting for you when you graduate, but you should hit the upward slope of the economic cycle quite nicely! Of course, there is - and maybe still will be - a big backlog to clear, but unless you're in the queue you won't get what you're after!
Predicting the future is fraught with difficulties and traps. In deciding who to listen to, you're probably best ignoring the extremes of opinion. Balpa's (remember the start of this thread...?) opinion was, I think, extremely optimistic - as are probably those of most FTOs' marketing departments! You'll see others that are extremely pessimistic. The truth, as always, is somewhere in the middle - and only hindsight will prove who was right.....
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Out of interest just how good is anyone, in particular the airlines themselves, at predicting pilot demand. There seems to be a few cases floating around of airlines suddenly finding themselves short of pilots.
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I said in October....................
That there would be an inclination upwards starting about April May, there has been. Not very big but nonetheless a small one. My experience tells me that from a historical standpoint there WILL be a continued upturn, albeit very slowly, and I agree with Scroggs that this is a good time to consider training - for a possible chance of a job in the early of 2004. Maybe sooner!
The current position will not last. It never has in all my years in the industry. Indeed, there are a few airlines who did cut off their noses to spite their faces in the latter part of 2001, and they are wishing that they hadn't.
Still. Caution is the watchword and I would say do nothing until you are satisfied that YOU want to take a stake in early 2004.
Having said that, watch out for another upturn in business next year. It's NOT all doom and gloom. But you still have to be careful.
Good luck.
IFR
That there would be an inclination upwards starting about April May, there has been. Not very big but nonetheless a small one. My experience tells me that from a historical standpoint there WILL be a continued upturn, albeit very slowly, and I agree with Scroggs that this is a good time to consider training - for a possible chance of a job in the early of 2004. Maybe sooner!
The current position will not last. It never has in all my years in the industry. Indeed, there are a few airlines who did cut off their noses to spite their faces in the latter part of 2001, and they are wishing that they hadn't.
Still. Caution is the watchword and I would say do nothing until you are satisfied that YOU want to take a stake in early 2004.
Having said that, watch out for another upturn in business next year. It's NOT all doom and gloom. But you still have to be careful.
Good luck.
IFR
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I recently met with someone well placed in the aviation industry who gave me (what I consider) a good opinion of what is likely to happen in the future.
Dealing with every aircraft manufacturer he is aware of their future plans and how they see the market developing, what he told me made me feel a bit better about the current situation.
There are already signs of recovery in the market and things are already slowly picking up. Airlines are placing orders for new aircraft (few years in advance though) and are expecting things to be nearly back to normal in about 18 months. Another interesting point was that a lot of companies are moving away from wide body jets and looking at ordering smaller regional jets to replace some of the retiring wide body fleet. more planes - more jobs!
Perhaps there is light at the end of the tunnel.......I just hope its not a train!
Hopefully in a couple of years once the more experienced pilots have been soaked up there will be hope for those of us who are planning to emerge onto the market in the next 2 to 3 years. It’s not all peachy at the moment but its definitely not all doom and gloom.
Anyway sod it, its what I'm set on doing with my life so I'm just going to get on with it.
See you all up there.
Dealing with every aircraft manufacturer he is aware of their future plans and how they see the market developing, what he told me made me feel a bit better about the current situation.
There are already signs of recovery in the market and things are already slowly picking up. Airlines are placing orders for new aircraft (few years in advance though) and are expecting things to be nearly back to normal in about 18 months. Another interesting point was that a lot of companies are moving away from wide body jets and looking at ordering smaller regional jets to replace some of the retiring wide body fleet. more planes - more jobs!
Perhaps there is light at the end of the tunnel.......I just hope its not a train!
Hopefully in a couple of years once the more experienced pilots have been soaked up there will be hope for those of us who are planning to emerge onto the market in the next 2 to 3 years. It’s not all peachy at the moment but its definitely not all doom and gloom.
Anyway sod it, its what I'm set on doing with my life so I'm just going to get on with it.
See you all up there.
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BALPA has learnt to read in crystal balls apparently. Or perhaps they have hired a Nostradamus.
Eirther way its pretty irresponsible. There is way too much uncertainty in the economy at the moment. As for a "pilot shortage" there has never been one in aviation history.
Eirther way its pretty irresponsible. There is way too much uncertainty in the economy at the moment. As for a "pilot shortage" there has never been one in aviation history.
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Just to show how feelings can change in a short time, I have to say that the events in Kashmir are very worrying - and, obviously, not just for our industry.
Today the UK Foreign Office has notched up the fear factor by saying that British nationals in the area should leave. Not 'consider leaving' but 'should leave'. This will be followed by other nations saying the same to their nationals, and lots of foreign residents in India and Pakistan will take their advice. In the meantime, travel to those countries and their neighbours will be badly hit.
Stock markets are beginning to factor in the consequences of a major war in the region - one which has the potential to go nuclear. At times like these, business starts to reel in its unnecessary expenses (if there are any left!) and the leisure travel industry sees a drop in forward bookings to most destinations. If tension increases further, people will stay where they feel safe - at home. The potential damage to our industry could be far worse than the Gulf or 9/11. And then there is the situation in Israel......
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying we're all doomed! I am, however, pointing out that events outside our control can dramatically affect our view of the near future. We think, at the moment, that western economies have weathered the worst of the recent downturn and can look forward to a period of increasing prosperity - with good consequences for our industry. But events elsewhere can stop that recovery in its tracks, and it's impossible to predict what might happen in a week or two, let alone a couple of years ahead!
So, the bottom line is do what you feel is right for you. Accept that your timing might not be great, and be prepared to have to earn your living another way if the airlines don't want you when you're ready for them. Above all, don't store up regrets for the future. If you want to do it, get on with it - applying some reasonably cautious judgement as to when to start - but don't be so timid that, before you know it, life has passed you by. There's never a reliable measure of what is the best, or worst, time to start training. A lot of luck comes into it!
Today the UK Foreign Office has notched up the fear factor by saying that British nationals in the area should leave. Not 'consider leaving' but 'should leave'. This will be followed by other nations saying the same to their nationals, and lots of foreign residents in India and Pakistan will take their advice. In the meantime, travel to those countries and their neighbours will be badly hit.
Stock markets are beginning to factor in the consequences of a major war in the region - one which has the potential to go nuclear. At times like these, business starts to reel in its unnecessary expenses (if there are any left!) and the leisure travel industry sees a drop in forward bookings to most destinations. If tension increases further, people will stay where they feel safe - at home. The potential damage to our industry could be far worse than the Gulf or 9/11. And then there is the situation in Israel......
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying we're all doomed! I am, however, pointing out that events outside our control can dramatically affect our view of the near future. We think, at the moment, that western economies have weathered the worst of the recent downturn and can look forward to a period of increasing prosperity - with good consequences for our industry. But events elsewhere can stop that recovery in its tracks, and it's impossible to predict what might happen in a week or two, let alone a couple of years ahead!
So, the bottom line is do what you feel is right for you. Accept that your timing might not be great, and be prepared to have to earn your living another way if the airlines don't want you when you're ready for them. Above all, don't store up regrets for the future. If you want to do it, get on with it - applying some reasonably cautious judgement as to when to start - but don't be so timid that, before you know it, life has passed you by. There's never a reliable measure of what is the best, or worst, time to start training. A lot of luck comes into it!