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Old 5th Jun 2002, 16:47
  #40 (permalink)  
scroggs
 
Join Date: Dec 1997
Location: Suffolk UK
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Just to show how feelings can change in a short time, I have to say that the events in Kashmir are very worrying - and, obviously, not just for our industry.

Today the UK Foreign Office has notched up the fear factor by saying that British nationals in the area should leave. Not 'consider leaving' but 'should leave'. This will be followed by other nations saying the same to their nationals, and lots of foreign residents in India and Pakistan will take their advice. In the meantime, travel to those countries and their neighbours will be badly hit.

Stock markets are beginning to factor in the consequences of a major war in the region - one which has the potential to go nuclear. At times like these, business starts to reel in its unnecessary expenses (if there are any left!) and the leisure travel industry sees a drop in forward bookings to most destinations. If tension increases further, people will stay where they feel safe - at home. The potential damage to our industry could be far worse than the Gulf or 9/11. And then there is the situation in Israel......

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying we're all doomed! I am, however, pointing out that events outside our control can dramatically affect our view of the near future. We think, at the moment, that western economies have weathered the worst of the recent downturn and can look forward to a period of increasing prosperity - with good consequences for our industry. But events elsewhere can stop that recovery in its tracks, and it's impossible to predict what might happen in a week or two, let alone a couple of years ahead!

So, the bottom line is do what you feel is right for you. Accept that your timing might not be great, and be prepared to have to earn your living another way if the airlines don't want you when you're ready for them. Above all, don't store up regrets for the future. If you want to do it, get on with it - applying some reasonably cautious judgement as to when to start - but don't be so timid that, before you know it, life has passed you by. There's never a reliable measure of what is the best, or worst, time to start training. A lot of luck comes into it!
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