There was a recession on even before September 11th. Now there's a recovery on. To quote the eminent economist, Professor Paul Samuelson, "economists have a very long way to go as a policy-advising profession". As a general rule, the more specific an economic forecast is, the less likely it is to be accurate. Mind you, the actuaries are better - all those old capts have to jack it in one day, given that the population in most Western countries is ageing fast. That is a trend that will survive the ups-n-downs of the airline business.