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Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

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Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

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Old 16th Sep 2008, 12:52
  #441 (permalink)  
 
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G-Spot I will take a sportsmans bet with you the with the next 12 months Net Jets will be laying of a significant number of pilots.

Lurker is unfortunately right. YOU MUST UNDERSTAND WHAT IS GOING ON IN FINANCIAL MARKETS WILL BE DEVASTATING TO THE AVIATION INDUSTRY... FULL STOP!!!

This is not being alarmist it is fact... some people are still massively under estimating the size and scope of this crisis. In the last 48 hours it has got 10x worse than it was just a couple of weeks ago.
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 12:55
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FTSE below 5000 means its lower than when Tony Blair entered Downing St. Minus 11 years inflation. The worlds largest insurer who owns the worlds largest fleet of airliners (ILFC) is on the brink of going bust just like the US number 5, 4 and 3 investment banks. The UK's biggest mortgage bank is down 50% in 48 hrs in the midst of a housing crash that is running at nearly twice the speed of the 1991 one. The CEO of BA says these are the worst trading conditions in 30 years and airlines are stranding passengers abroad by going bust left right and centre.

And the worst is yet to come.

If the alarms in your head aren't ringing yet then I suggest you consult a psychologist for engineering advice.
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 12:59
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FTSE Getting close to dropping through 5000 which I though would happen yesterday.

edit: today's low 4,975.20 a few mins ago
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 13:23
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G-SPOTS spot on!

Low hour job's are goney! For good, we'll see...it'll cost ya though and you can work out that Catch 22 for yourself..
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 13:28
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There is fear on the streets in the Square Mile right now. If AIG and HBOS go down on the same day they might have to suspend trading. I've never known an atmosphere like this. The Oct 1997 crash was a party atmosphere compared to this.
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 13:40
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Bankers jumping off window ledges will be next.
I hope not - at least my window does not open.

Seriously though, it is a complete disaster everywhere in the City - and City people not flying is a disaster for aviation. Expect BA's share price to plummet in the near term...
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 14:30
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If it really hits the fan, the kids can go to a state school!:

Oh the humanity. Anything but that.



No, the local ones round here ARE pants, the my kids don't suit hoodies and they can't fully manage a knife and fork at the table yet, let alone in a street fight. Plus and me and the wife don't do religion so the local convent etc are out as well

iX
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 15:00
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When there's blood on the streets then you get the real investors coming out.. anyone seen Warren Buffet lately?

I doubt this is the end of the world.

I understand your concerns iX about schools. I note Grange Hill has been axed - was it impossible to realistically portray a modern comprehensive before the watershed...?


WWW
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 15:27
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I have no sympathy for the City Boys and Girls. They've been making small fortunes gambling with other people's money for years and they laid one too many dodgy bets when they went into the subprime market.

What annoys me is that the general public - who didn't get the huge City bonuses or the hug salaries during the boom-time - are now going to suffer.

It seems the City benefits from the booms but the rest of us suffer the busts!
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 15:56
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I agree wit Mike Hotel

All these big luxurious lifestyles for some people, not nessesscerily thought city people but majority are, have left us all in a big puckle all right!!!

And why is some people critisizing state schools,,,,u learn the same stuff, just because you dont get to wear coats with long tails...

At least in Ireland there arent many provate posh schools, although there are a few....
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 15:58
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I have no sympathy for the City Boys and Girls. They've been making small fortunes gambling with other people's money for years and they laid one too many dodgy bets when they went into the subprime market.
Really, please. If you can point me towards my small fortune, I would be enternally grateful, as I cannot see one in my bank account myself.

A very few people made a fortune, but most were just normal, and working to get by. Honestly, that comment is almost as bad as the furore about spread betting on the next airline to go bankrupt. Uninformed tosh quite frankly.
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 15:59
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Mike Hotel is right..


Big city luxurious lifestyles with the big penthouses has left everyone in a pickle...alrite....Some people get big salaries and in fairness wouldnt know what a hard days work actually is...

no offense to anyone!!!!!
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 16:04
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Big city luxurious lifestyles with the big penthouses has left everyone in a pickle...alrite....Some people get big salaries and in fairness wouldnt know what a hard days work actually is...
No, it is just ignorance, quite incorrect and far from the truth.

Most I know who do have the big salaries certainly work for it, and have the litany of failed marriages behind them to prove it.
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 16:23
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GSB

You're on

Not including the OAT cadets, lets wager £10 GBP on say....50 pilots getting the boot, I say No...you say Yes - Simple.

Proceeds to the PPrune fund or the Air Ambulance charity of the winners choice.

Here for all to see.....dont be welching on me like the guy who's not been seen or heard of since the Vulcan flew again...... it appears he was looking down the barrel of humming dixie whilst stood starkers in a Debenhams window of his choosing with a red rose between his teeth

I sincerely hope you are wrong, I have no doubt that you would be delighted for the sake of the 50 to hand over the dosh.

WRT the markets, the money is out there.... somebody has made a good few £€$ this week, that man needs a Gulfstream

Very surprised that ILFC are in the mire do you have a link......
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 16:31
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NJE look like recommencing interviews from Nov. (From the office).
Cadets coming online in Nov too. They'll be trickle fed into the pilot stream.

Recruitment has been flooded with applications from Spanair, Zoom and now XL. However, some will be put off with the now 18 month to 2 years predication for LHS.

So far no sign of slow down of deliveries, if anything, after the delays of this year, they're finally coming on thick and fast. Especially the Hawker 750.

Hawker 4000 and Falcon 7X should turn up either end of the year or next year. The crews are already being trained for the 7X. The H4000 has had a few teething problems... an understatement.

Re how NJE is going? Just fine. This is from one of the London bean counters. Sure, the flying rate has slowed down but that's also due to less positioning flights. NJE didn't lay any one off in 2001/2002. In fact, they grew. NetJets USA has not furloughed any one off in over 20 years. How many airlines can say that? The phenomenal growth that NJE has seen over the past 5 years has slowed but no one in the Flight Ops department is complaining. Finally a chance to breath!

Some folks aren't flying as much as they used to, our "high net worth people" aren't largely affected, we're getting more corporations joining as either they get rid of their individual jet or they realise wasting time at check in actually costs them money. (esp if more than 1 pax is flying) The other big bizjet corporations such as TAG have noticed the same thing.

The 2012 Olympics aren't far away. I reckon we'll be busy. All of us.
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 16:35
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Oh come, come, I didn't say that everyone in the City is overpaid or that nobody worked hard for their extremely large profit-related bonuses. I never believed that there was an annual rush to the Porsche dealerships, nor that there was any link between house prices, Pink shirt shops, and the number of overflowing wine bars in Canary Wharf and City wages.

Obviously many people worked very hard and deserved every penny of their salaries. That's the same in every industry. A family member is one of those people who was underpaid throughout her time in the City and is suing for sexual discrimination. She hasn't got two beans to rub together! Yet a friend bought his first Porsche after a year in Canary Wharf and 5 years later lives in a huge house in Surrey which has half a forest in its garden... and he wasn't regarded as the brightest guy in our peer-group!

Still, having this week spoken to a close friend who works high up for Lehman Brothers in NYC, and voiced the above opinions that so riled Re-Heat, and found that she agreed wholeheartedly, I stand by those comments.
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 16:37
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NJE

The green-eyed beast is a terrible thing
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 16:40
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If you had said City bosses, I too would have agreed.

G-SPOTs Lost - Ref ILFC & AIG - http://www.pprune.org/airlines-airpo...ownership.html
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 16:42
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Thats right blame the city... not the bloke next door who took out the buy-to-let mortgage to make a quick buck on the housing market and now can't afford to pay it because interest rates have gone up... so he defaults.... and you say he is the victim and the bank is at fault!?!... the guy who took the mortgage is as guilty if not more so than the bank who gave him the money.... as is the wanabee that took a risk on training didn't get the job and defaulted on his loan.... these defaults are what is driving the broader crisis. People not honoring their responsibilities. It was greed across the board not just at the banks but all those people who took out cheap credit and over stretched themselves to consume today rather than work and save.

Anyway WHO IS TO BLAME DOES NOT MATTER NOW.... JUST BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES THIS IS GETTING VERY VERY BAD.... you will not see the likes of this crisis again in your lifetime. Look at the news... it is as bad as the headlines are saying. IT WILL IMPACT YOU AS WANABEE OR EXPERIENCED PILOT! THERE IS LIMITED FUNDING AVAILBLE TO AIRLINES TO ROLL OVER MATURING DEBT.... THIS KILLED XL AND OTHERS WILL FOLLOW.
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 17:40
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I think there is an important point here that many are missing. The global financial 'adjustment' will effect everyone, not just our beloved aviation industry. There are few professions that will be recession proof (doctors, undertakers etc) and so the near future will be difficult regardless. Personally, I would be wary of walking away from any security that I already had.
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