Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: england
Posts: 613
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I don't know many pilots who aren't just a little bit to quite worried about their employment situation going into this storm.
Not sure many medical doctors or consultants see much chance of being suddenly, one day like a lightning bolt, unemployed. Nor barristers or those in the police, military, or civil service.
Its a feature of the industry that Pilots have less job security than most professional peers. Airlines go bust. The list of airlines that collapsed is considerably longer than that still in existence. There is ABSOLUTELY NOW WAY that this deepening and already serious recession will pass by without the failure of several UK airlines. It would defy logic and historical precedence and prove wrong all the major airline CEO's who have already predicted it.
Never been a worse time to train.
WWW
Its a feature of the industry that Pilots have less job security than most professional peers. Airlines go bust. The list of airlines that collapsed is considerably longer than that still in existence. There is ABSOLUTELY NOW WAY that this deepening and already serious recession will pass by without the failure of several UK airlines. It would defy logic and historical precedence and prove wrong all the major airline CEO's who have already predicted it.
Never been a worse time to train.
WWW
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Madrid
Posts: 37
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
At least the price of oil is low. That has probably saved a lot of companies from bankruptcy. Who would have thought that it could go back down to 40$ when we were looking at 150$ just 6 months ago and everyone was in panic. Is this likely to last? Will it bring down airfares or make training cheaper again? I was seeing hourly rates for plane rental go up almost weekly last August at the place I was at. Is anyone aware of prices going back down? One thing that worries me is that, with a low oil price, people will forget about investing in replacement technologies and then when things do start to pick up the oil price will go though the roof again.
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Just around the corner
Posts: 108
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
WWW
I think Paramedics / Nursing staff could be added to the medical professional list, also being an undertaker might be considered a recession proof occupation
I think Paramedics / Nursing staff could be added to the medical professional list, also being an undertaker might be considered a recession proof occupation
Join Date: Feb 1999
Location: UK
Posts: 1,091
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Dublin Eire - do shut up you moron.
A sober analysis of the depth of the problems facing Wannabes relating to the economic crisis is important, relevant and of interest to most.
Today I planned on 4 engine failures at V1 and 4 go-arounds and 4 diversions and 4 evacuations not because I'm miserable. A professional pragmatically plans. They don't just shrug and whistle Always Look On The Bright Side whilst hoping for the best.
10,000 people every week in the UK are now losing their jobs.
That adds up quite scarily.
WWW
no sponsor - I read that earlier and Ambrose Evans Pritchard piece, its past worrying and into terrifying but not many know they should be any more than uneasy..
A sober analysis of the depth of the problems facing Wannabes relating to the economic crisis is important, relevant and of interest to most.
Today I planned on 4 engine failures at V1 and 4 go-arounds and 4 diversions and 4 evacuations not because I'm miserable. A professional pragmatically plans. They don't just shrug and whistle Always Look On The Bright Side whilst hoping for the best.
10,000 people every week in the UK are now losing their jobs.
That adds up quite scarily.
WWW
no sponsor - I read that earlier and Ambrose Evans Pritchard piece, its past worrying and into terrifying but not many know they should be any more than uneasy..
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Frinton-on-Sea
Posts: 302
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
AND NOW FOR SOME GOOD NEWS!
After write-offs and the like, Barclays Merchant Bank actually did extremely well last year and their rather splendid profits are once again steadily rising. So things might be moving in the right direction, even if their share price doesn't reflect their actual position.
AND NOW FOR SOME BAD NEWS!
In 2011, it is extremely likely that the retirement age will increase to 70 although that will be at the discretion of the employee.
So, more pilots working longer? Less pilots to be recruited? What do you think?
AND SOME MORE GOOD NEWS!
In 3 years time, there will be significantly less pilots in the pool as fewer will be able to afford the training over the next couple of years. So, potentially even Ryanair might be forced to pay for line training. In fact, if you hang-on, I'm guessing that IR's might be paid for as well!!!!!
REMEMBER, YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST!
After write-offs and the like, Barclays Merchant Bank actually did extremely well last year and their rather splendid profits are once again steadily rising. So things might be moving in the right direction, even if their share price doesn't reflect their actual position.
AND NOW FOR SOME BAD NEWS!
In 2011, it is extremely likely that the retirement age will increase to 70 although that will be at the discretion of the employee.
So, more pilots working longer? Less pilots to be recruited? What do you think?
AND SOME MORE GOOD NEWS!
In 3 years time, there will be significantly less pilots in the pool as fewer will be able to afford the training over the next couple of years. So, potentially even Ryanair might be forced to pay for line training. In fact, if you hang-on, I'm guessing that IR's might be paid for as well!!!!!
REMEMBER, YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST!
For the last 10 years the UK population has enjoyed a lifestyle that it couldn't afford and did not merit. At first it could cope. 2001 tech bubble burst was a warning shot but the 2005 tremour was a dire warning. It was ignored. House price inflation was allowed to roar away until the Sept 2007 epiphany.
Look at any stock market chart.
05 should have been the peak followed by a small recession. It was postponed for 2 years and the result is a major recession. This did of course coincide with a certain General Election victory of a third term never seen by a particular adminstration...
During these good years the public finances should have been in good order with record receipts. Unfortunately they were places 3% in debt which is a position you would associate with a serious recession situation...
The country is seriously screwed and the markets, internationally, are telling you that. Ignore the domestic politicians and newspapers who survive on domestic consumption led advertising.
Its screwed. The country is bankrupt. Bankrupt.
You think I'm a nut job.
Unfortunately, I'm not.
WWW
Look at any stock market chart.
05 should have been the peak followed by a small recession. It was postponed for 2 years and the result is a major recession. This did of course coincide with a certain General Election victory of a third term never seen by a particular adminstration...
During these good years the public finances should have been in good order with record receipts. Unfortunately they were places 3% in debt which is a position you would associate with a serious recession situation...
The country is seriously screwed and the markets, internationally, are telling you that. Ignore the domestic politicians and newspapers who survive on domestic consumption led advertising.
Its screwed. The country is bankrupt. Bankrupt.
You think I'm a nut job.
Unfortunately, I'm not.
WWW
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Frinton-on-Sea
Posts: 302
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Time will tell but I';m guessing 5 years to a full recovery and 3 years 'til pilot recruitment. I certainly wouldn't even consider beginning an ATPL integrated course though, after all WWW just might be right!
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: On the high side
Posts: 68
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Today I planned on 4 engine failures at V1 and 4 go-arounds and 4 diversions and 4 evacuations not because I'm miserable. A professional pragmatically plans. They don't just shrug and whistle Always Look On The Bright Side whilst hoping for the best.
I'd love to know your credentials in the field of economics WWW. I'm just heeding the warning below about sciolists, I fear you're most likely one of them!
Recessions are also very good things. From an ordinary joe-soap point of view goods are better value, it's easier to start up businesses(so I've heard), margins of retailers are cut back to the benefit of the consumer, companies cut out unnecessary costs and improve performance/production, house prices come down and demand related price goods such as oil and other commodities come down too.
It's not all bad guys. Part of the natural economic cycle. It will make us better at the end of it all.
I'm a big critic of the lack of personal finance education. People should be educated to deal better with bad times and not expect to have a job all their life whether that be the result of recession or illness. Personal responsibility and development if you will.
Join Date: Feb 1999
Location: UK
Posts: 1,091
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
For those of you who watch Andrew Marr, and saw the John Major interview in December, which can be found at
BBC NEWS | Programmes | Andrew Marr Show | 'UK economy is a train wreck'
It is a very good interpretation of the current situation. The numbers used to describe the situation the present govt has got us into in terms of debt and the debt repayment is horrifying.
This statement left me cold "...after 12 years of Labour government we now have a level of national debt that is the same as we had after 6 years of world war. That is the scale of the indebtedness and the problem we're in."
BBC NEWS | Programmes | Andrew Marr Show | 'UK economy is a train wreck'
It is a very good interpretation of the current situation. The numbers used to describe the situation the present govt has got us into in terms of debt and the debt repayment is horrifying.
This statement left me cold "...after 12 years of Labour government we now have a level of national debt that is the same as we had after 6 years of world war. That is the scale of the indebtedness and the problem we're in."
Jaysus lads, remind me to invite yas to my parties....... I wouldn't have it that the life and souls be left out!
Cheer up
Cheer up
You wonder about my credentials on economics? Sold my house in April 07 to rent because I feared a house price crash. Took all my pension and savings out of the Stock Market at FTSE 6200. Called Oil a bubble that would burst by Xmas 08 in March 08. Warned every wannabe, despite ridicule and condemnation, that training was wasted since Sept 07. Bought Gold.
All. All. Of which I typed out on PPRuNe on these forums for all to see.
So. If you want credentials then I think I've got 'em.
Cocky I know. But bragging rights are bragging rights.
Oh, and Oils a sideshow (currently $39)......
I F-£ing told you so would not be too strong a phrase. But I'm just as frightened as the aveage Wannabe. If I lose my job I'm screwed.
Some of you wannabe wouldn't want cautionary advice if it was plated in gold and sporting a propeller..
WWW
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: On the high side
Posts: 68
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I F-£ing told you so would not be too strong a phrase. But I'm just as frightened as the aveage Wannabe. If I lose my job I'm screwed.
Some of you wannabe wouldn't want cautionary advice if it was plated in gold and sporting a propeller..
Some of you wannabe wouldn't want cautionary advice if it was plated in gold and sporting a propeller..
In keeping with my suggestion here is some relatively good news from the ECB via Bloomberg:
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said price pressures have diminished and the inflation rate is likely to meet the ECB’s goal of about 2 per cent in the medium term.
“The economic outlook in the euro area has continued to weaken and inflation has declined further,” Mr Trichet said at a hearing in the European Parliament in Brussels today.
“We expect euro-area inflation to remain in line with our definition of price stability over the policy-relevant horizon.”
The European Commission this week forecast the euro-area economy will shrink 1.9 per cent this year. The inflation rate dropped to 1.6 per cent in December, the lowest in more than two years.
The ECB on January 15th cut the benchmark rate by half a percentage point to 2 per cent, matching a record low.
While “risks to economic growth remain on the downside,” Mr Trichet said slower inflation and looser fiscal and monetary policies should help the economy to stage a recovery in 2010.
“The euro area should benefit from broad and far-reaching policy measures reached over the past weeks,” he said.
“The economic outlook in the euro area has continued to weaken and inflation has declined further,” Mr Trichet said at a hearing in the European Parliament in Brussels today.
“We expect euro-area inflation to remain in line with our definition of price stability over the policy-relevant horizon.”
The European Commission this week forecast the euro-area economy will shrink 1.9 per cent this year. The inflation rate dropped to 1.6 per cent in December, the lowest in more than two years.
The ECB on January 15th cut the benchmark rate by half a percentage point to 2 per cent, matching a record low.
While “risks to economic growth remain on the downside,” Mr Trichet said slower inflation and looser fiscal and monetary policies should help the economy to stage a recovery in 2010.
“The euro area should benefit from broad and far-reaching policy measures reached over the past weeks,” he said.
You're obviously not aware of the genesis of this threat (ie DOWNTURN) and its thousands of pages.
This thread, not a hundred little ones at every twist and turn, is the place where the economic crisis is discussed. The 'Upturn' part of the thread is somewhat tongue in cheek.
Its horrific. Airlines will go bust. Wannabes will be wiped out.
Ireland will be worse.
WWW
This thread, not a hundred little ones at every twist and turn, is the place where the economic crisis is discussed. The 'Upturn' part of the thread is somewhat tongue in cheek.
Its horrific. Airlines will go bust. Wannabes will be wiped out.
Ireland will be worse.
WWW
Join Date: May 2003
Location: uk
Posts: 713
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Ireland is worse and the probelm they have is being in the Eurozone.
The ECB runs policy to suit the Germans and French.
I suspect Ireland will go the way of Iceland and be at the IMF by the end of the year.
It is in the same camp and Greece Portugal and Spain, a real basket case.
The ECB runs policy to suit the Germans and French.
I suspect Ireland will go the way of Iceland and be at the IMF by the end of the year.
It is in the same camp and Greece Portugal and Spain, a real basket case.
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: On the high side
Posts: 68
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I suspect Ireland will go the way of Iceland and be at the IMF by the end of the year.
The IMF debacle was a result of a mistaken report by an Irish broadcaster based on rumour that An Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, mentioned the IMF while in talks with the social partners(unions and business leaders).
Europe has clarified that they don't see the IMF stepping in. I hope that's true. They'd want to hope so too given that we have a second Lisbon Treaty to vote upon.
Anyways, here's a relevant joke for you miserable bunch of wrinklies:
Q. What's the difference between Iceland and Ireland?
A. One letter and about 6 months.
PPRuNe Secret Agent!
Moderator
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: West Sussex, UK
Posts: 1,546
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
In 2011, it is extremely likely that the retirement age will increase to 70 although that will be at the discretion of the employee.