Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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Topslide
Yeah, it is possible that people from continental Europe would come here for a holiday. Is it likely? I wouldn't have said so personally
On the plus side though the Euro millions lottery tickets cost us £1.50 and the europeans €2, this has always been the case, but now if I scoop the £50m jackpot this weekend, i'll have a far higher %age return on my flutter than mr european.
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There was a thing on the news the other night about europeans coming over here to spend their money in droves
Last edited by mcgoo; 10th Jan 2009 at 06:47.
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From RTE.ie
"Unemployment up 71% in 12 months"
"The Live Register saw an unadjusted increase of 120,987 or 71% in the year to December 2008 - the biggest 12-month increase since records began in 1967.
It compares to an unadjusted increase of 106,864 or 66.1% in the year to November.
The figures published by the Central Statistics Office also show that the number of people signing onto the Live Register increased by 16,300 to 293,500 in December.
The unemployment rate rose to 8.3% last month from 7.8% in November.
The CSO figures show that the number of men on the dole has risen by 83% while the number of women is up by 50% compared with December 2007.
There is also a 24% rise in unemployment among under 25s.
Economists expect the unemployment figures to deteriorate significantly in 2009 with the State training agency FÁS predicting that the rate of unemployment will exceed 12% over the course of the year."
As far as Irish passenger numbers are concerned for the coming year, it don't look good!
"Unemployment up 71% in 12 months"
"The Live Register saw an unadjusted increase of 120,987 or 71% in the year to December 2008 - the biggest 12-month increase since records began in 1967.
It compares to an unadjusted increase of 106,864 or 66.1% in the year to November.
The figures published by the Central Statistics Office also show that the number of people signing onto the Live Register increased by 16,300 to 293,500 in December.
The unemployment rate rose to 8.3% last month from 7.8% in November.
The CSO figures show that the number of men on the dole has risen by 83% while the number of women is up by 50% compared with December 2007.
There is also a 24% rise in unemployment among under 25s.
Economists expect the unemployment figures to deteriorate significantly in 2009 with the State training agency FÁS predicting that the rate of unemployment will exceed 12% over the course of the year."
As far as Irish passenger numbers are concerned for the coming year, it don't look good!
I didn't know the FAS were predicting over 12%. That's huge. Spain is just under 14% and the idea of civil unrest is not looking outlandish there.
People just aren't going to travel at any price or any exchange rate when economic fear stalks the land like a huge great stalking thing.
WWW
People just aren't going to travel at any price or any exchange rate when economic fear stalks the land like a huge great stalking thing.
WWW
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UK economy downturn 'frightening'
Business leaders have painted a bleak picture of the UK economy, with a survey suggesting a "frightening deterioration" towards the end of 2008.
BBC NEWS | Business | UK economy downturn 'frightening'
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I dont normally cut and paste links of gloom and doom but thought this might be of interest.
Aerospace industry has thousands of jobs in peril - Times Online
Aerospace industry has thousands of jobs in peril - Times Online
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Will bmi take off or stall under Lufthansa?
What is Lufthansa planning to do with bmi, the former British Midland? Last year, the German flag carrier agreed to buy a 50 per cent stake from Sir Michael Bishop to take its holding to 80 per cent. Assuming that European competition regulators do not object, the deal should be completed in a month or so. What then?
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Sod all that, a friend informed me about the new Virgin Atlantic advert, if that does not kick start the economy nothing will....
YouTube - Virgin Atlantic 25 years
I needed Oxygen on 100% after watching it
YouTube - Virgin Atlantic 25 years
I needed Oxygen on 100% after watching it
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I had to laugh at it-good fun (my wife will no doubt laugh at it-she was a hostie for Virgin) but on a 'more serious' note it's a bit sad as the image put across is what the public and some 'pay to fly' wanabes think the job is about-ie/all glamour and it's not work. The reality couldn't be further from the perceived image!!!
I have to say its a cracking advert.
In other news..
Albert Edwards a Soc Gen analyst put out this note this morning, whilst he's a big bad bear its still cause for a nervous gulp:
While economic data in developed economies increasingly reflects depression rather than a deep recession, the real surprise in 2009 may lie elsewhere. It is becoming clear that the Chinese economy is imploding and this
raises the possibility of regime change. To prevent this, the authorities would likely devalue
the Yuan. A subsequent trade war could see a re-run of the Great Depression.
Thats the D word. Shotguns and tinned food serious.
WWW
In other news..
Albert Edwards a Soc Gen analyst put out this note this morning, whilst he's a big bad bear its still cause for a nervous gulp:
While economic data in developed economies increasingly reflects depression rather than a deep recession, the real surprise in 2009 may lie elsewhere. It is becoming clear that the Chinese economy is imploding and this
raises the possibility of regime change. To prevent this, the authorities would likely devalue
the Yuan. A subsequent trade war could see a re-run of the Great Depression.
Thats the D word. Shotguns and tinned food serious.
WWW
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I was in China last weekend and all the questions I got were on the recession.
Factories are closing as export sales are drying up. One redundancy here will probably snowball into 20 in China.
To overcome the risk, the government is investing in major infrastructure.
With 10 million people a year leaving the countryside to live and work in the cities and 8 million or so leaving university high growth rates are needed to keep everyone busy.
If the government fail to ensure everyone is gainfully occupied then social stability is at risk. China has no welfare state or health service.
If China goes titup then we will be in real trouble.
So go out and buy a made in China telly or something and save the world.
Factories are closing as export sales are drying up. One redundancy here will probably snowball into 20 in China.
To overcome the risk, the government is investing in major infrastructure.
With 10 million people a year leaving the countryside to live and work in the cities and 8 million or so leaving university high growth rates are needed to keep everyone busy.
If the government fail to ensure everyone is gainfully occupied then social stability is at risk. China has no welfare state or health service.
If China goes titup then we will be in real trouble.
So go out and buy a made in China telly or something and save the world.
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To overcome the risk, the government is investing in major infrastructure
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I predict a return to literal breadlines within 12 months.
Also there will be rioting and carnage in the streets.
The Anglo-American empire will cease to exist.
Hyperinflation will come to Britain.
4 million will be out of work.
I drove past a Welsh family selling fruit and vegetables from the back of a van today near a Cardiff layby.
A return to thrifty,traditional living is a reality.
Also there will be rioting and carnage in the streets.
The Anglo-American empire will cease to exist.
Hyperinflation will come to Britain.
4 million will be out of work.
I drove past a Welsh family selling fruit and vegetables from the back of a van today near a Cardiff layby.
A return to thrifty,traditional living is a reality.
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First news article I've read in a business section with a hint of the first rays of light and the end of this tunnel. WWW, please don't shoot me down for this, I am not trying to encourage false hope!!!!
Sunday Times, 18-01-2009
"Obama’s stimulus could turn round economy this year
American AccountIrwin Stelzer
In 48 hours George Walker Bush will watch as Barack Hussein Obama is sworn in as the 44th president of the United States. Knowing of Bush’s desire to return to his beloved Texas, one can’t help being reminded of President No 3, Thomas Jefferson, who reportedly remarked as his term ended some 200 years ago: “Never did a prisoner, released from his chains, feel such a relief as I shall on shaking off the shackles of power.”
It is those shackles that Obama will happily don. Bush says that when the new president steps into the Oval Office there will be a moment in which he realises the full weight of his new responsibilities. Perhaps that will come when he glances at his in-tray. He has promised to do a lot of things on “day one” - start a new peace process in the Middle East, accelerate the withdrawal of troops from Iraq and ship thousands more to Afghanistan, open a dialogue with Iran, close Guantanamo, replace “don’t ask, don’t tell” with a policy allowing gays to serve openly in the military, end the interrogation techniques that Bush and Dick Cheney say have prevented attacks on America.
Busy day. And that awesome list doesn’t include Obama’s top priority - getting his $825 billion (£560 billion) stimulus package through Congress.
Which he surely will: the Democrats dare not turn down their new president. After all, his approval rating is above 80%, while Congress’s is barely above 20%. And the minority Republicans, delighted with Obama’s plan to cut taxes, don’t have the votes to deny Obama a victory.
But there is enough unhappiness in Congress to force Obama to do some horse trading to get final approval. Some Democrats think the tax cuts should be replaced with more spending. Some Republicans and Democrats think the deficits the package will create will unleash inflation and a run on the dollar. Larry Summers, Obama’s chief economic adviser and his horse-trader-in-chief, is not noted for his emollient style, or his sympathy with lawmakers who might succumb to what The Wall Street Journal calls “the lobby frenzy now under way”. And on the other side of the table, are congressmen eager to reestablish their relevance after years of playing a subordinate role to the White House.
But in the end Obama will get most of what he wants, not least because the economic situation seems to deteriorate daily. The latest survey of national business conditions by the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis reported that “overall economic activity continued to weaken”, with retail sales, the labour market and manufacturing activity all falling. And Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JP Morgan Chase, says things will get worse this year as more consumers default on credit-card debt.
One way to understand the severity of the problem is to consider this: it’s one thing when tired old companies such as Delta Air Lines and General Motors announce layoffs, quite another when Google fires 100 recruiters because it expects to need fewer new workers this year, and Microsoft prepares substantial layoffs. The economy’s growth engines are sputtering.
By some measures Obama’s plan makes Franklin D Roosevelt’s antidepression spending look like small change. Diana Furchtgott-Roth, an economist colleague of mine at the Hudson Institute, reckons that in 1934 government spending reached 11% of GDP in Roosevelt’s fight to end the Great Depression, while Obama plans to increase spending to 23% of today’s GDP in 2009. True, Obama’s stimulus plan is only half as large as Roosevelt’s, relative to the size of the economy. But it starts from a much higher base of spending on programmes that did not exist when FDR was deploying his personal jauntiness as a national antidepressant.
In addition to stimulus funds, the new president will have available the second, $350 billion tranche of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). The Senate approved freeing up those funds late last week, on the condition that between $50 billion and $100 billion is devoted to foreclosure-prevention programmes.
Obama knows one thing. He is inheriting George Bush’s recession, but by the end of 2010 he will own it. If the measures he adopts don’t show signs of working, it will be Barack Obama’s recession.
The new president’s luck might just hold. Credit markets are already responding to the measures taken by the Fed and the Treasury. The commercial paper market (a key source of funding for companies and banks) is showing signs of life, with the portion of these IOUs that the Fed has been required to buy dropping precipitously. The market for mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is improving. Risk premiums in the interbank lending market have dropped. Investors have shown a willingness to take on more risk by buying the below-investment-grade “junk” bonds offered last week by Cablevision and the natural-gas operator El Paso.
The Financial Times summarises all this: “There is now compelling evidence that the authorities are not simply substituting for private activity in the markets in which they are intervening, but pulling in private capital as well.” Problems in the credit markets are far from over - witness the need of Bank of America for additional billions of bailout cash - but things are improving.
Goldman Sachs economists expect the stimulus to end the recession in the second half of 2009, but the unemployment rate to keep rising “through late 2010”. Economists know that the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, falling only after a recovery is well under way. Less well-trained voters, focused on jobs, don’t deal in such technicalities, which means they just might turn on Obama’s Democrats in the November 2010 congressional elections.
That would put Obama in mind of Jefferson’s first inaugural address: “I have learned to expect that it will rarely fall to the lot of imperfect man to retire from this station with the reputation and favour which bring him into it.” It is a lesson that George W Bush learned all too well.
Irwin Stelzer is a business adviser and director of economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute"
Hope it's true, but alot of damage already done and the effects yet to be really felt.
Sunday Times, 18-01-2009
"Obama’s stimulus could turn round economy this year
American AccountIrwin Stelzer
In 48 hours George Walker Bush will watch as Barack Hussein Obama is sworn in as the 44th president of the United States. Knowing of Bush’s desire to return to his beloved Texas, one can’t help being reminded of President No 3, Thomas Jefferson, who reportedly remarked as his term ended some 200 years ago: “Never did a prisoner, released from his chains, feel such a relief as I shall on shaking off the shackles of power.”
It is those shackles that Obama will happily don. Bush says that when the new president steps into the Oval Office there will be a moment in which he realises the full weight of his new responsibilities. Perhaps that will come when he glances at his in-tray. He has promised to do a lot of things on “day one” - start a new peace process in the Middle East, accelerate the withdrawal of troops from Iraq and ship thousands more to Afghanistan, open a dialogue with Iran, close Guantanamo, replace “don’t ask, don’t tell” with a policy allowing gays to serve openly in the military, end the interrogation techniques that Bush and Dick Cheney say have prevented attacks on America.
Busy day. And that awesome list doesn’t include Obama’s top priority - getting his $825 billion (£560 billion) stimulus package through Congress.
Which he surely will: the Democrats dare not turn down their new president. After all, his approval rating is above 80%, while Congress’s is barely above 20%. And the minority Republicans, delighted with Obama’s plan to cut taxes, don’t have the votes to deny Obama a victory.
But there is enough unhappiness in Congress to force Obama to do some horse trading to get final approval. Some Democrats think the tax cuts should be replaced with more spending. Some Republicans and Democrats think the deficits the package will create will unleash inflation and a run on the dollar. Larry Summers, Obama’s chief economic adviser and his horse-trader-in-chief, is not noted for his emollient style, or his sympathy with lawmakers who might succumb to what The Wall Street Journal calls “the lobby frenzy now under way”. And on the other side of the table, are congressmen eager to reestablish their relevance after years of playing a subordinate role to the White House.
But in the end Obama will get most of what he wants, not least because the economic situation seems to deteriorate daily. The latest survey of national business conditions by the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis reported that “overall economic activity continued to weaken”, with retail sales, the labour market and manufacturing activity all falling. And Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JP Morgan Chase, says things will get worse this year as more consumers default on credit-card debt.
One way to understand the severity of the problem is to consider this: it’s one thing when tired old companies such as Delta Air Lines and General Motors announce layoffs, quite another when Google fires 100 recruiters because it expects to need fewer new workers this year, and Microsoft prepares substantial layoffs. The economy’s growth engines are sputtering.
By some measures Obama’s plan makes Franklin D Roosevelt’s antidepression spending look like small change. Diana Furchtgott-Roth, an economist colleague of mine at the Hudson Institute, reckons that in 1934 government spending reached 11% of GDP in Roosevelt’s fight to end the Great Depression, while Obama plans to increase spending to 23% of today’s GDP in 2009. True, Obama’s stimulus plan is only half as large as Roosevelt’s, relative to the size of the economy. But it starts from a much higher base of spending on programmes that did not exist when FDR was deploying his personal jauntiness as a national antidepressant.
In addition to stimulus funds, the new president will have available the second, $350 billion tranche of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). The Senate approved freeing up those funds late last week, on the condition that between $50 billion and $100 billion is devoted to foreclosure-prevention programmes.
Obama knows one thing. He is inheriting George Bush’s recession, but by the end of 2010 he will own it. If the measures he adopts don’t show signs of working, it will be Barack Obama’s recession.
The new president’s luck might just hold. Credit markets are already responding to the measures taken by the Fed and the Treasury. The commercial paper market (a key source of funding for companies and banks) is showing signs of life, with the portion of these IOUs that the Fed has been required to buy dropping precipitously. The market for mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is improving. Risk premiums in the interbank lending market have dropped. Investors have shown a willingness to take on more risk by buying the below-investment-grade “junk” bonds offered last week by Cablevision and the natural-gas operator El Paso.
The Financial Times summarises all this: “There is now compelling evidence that the authorities are not simply substituting for private activity in the markets in which they are intervening, but pulling in private capital as well.” Problems in the credit markets are far from over - witness the need of Bank of America for additional billions of bailout cash - but things are improving.
Goldman Sachs economists expect the stimulus to end the recession in the second half of 2009, but the unemployment rate to keep rising “through late 2010”. Economists know that the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, falling only after a recovery is well under way. Less well-trained voters, focused on jobs, don’t deal in such technicalities, which means they just might turn on Obama’s Democrats in the November 2010 congressional elections.
That would put Obama in mind of Jefferson’s first inaugural address: “I have learned to expect that it will rarely fall to the lot of imperfect man to retire from this station with the reputation and favour which bring him into it.” It is a lesson that George W Bush learned all too well.
Irwin Stelzer is a business adviser and director of economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute"
Hope it's true, but alot of damage already done and the effects yet to be really felt.
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From reading your assesments I would conclude now is not the time to invest in flight training. My plan at the moment is to sit it out and wait for the economic condition to improve. However I question if they will for a very long time. I am presently the holder of a PPL and planning to invest a substantial amount of money in flight training with the hope of gaining employment with an Airline. I realise this is an unrealistic prospect at the moment. But how long do you think I should wait before I eventually make a decision of whether to put the nail in the coffin of an expensive dream?
Do you believe we will now in six months how bad things are?
Do you believe we will now in six months how bad things are?
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Crimo
You might as well keep training so when you do have enough time and experience it might be when they are hiring again.
Saves trying to play catch up when the time comes.
You might as well keep training so when you do have enough time and experience it might be when they are hiring again.
Saves trying to play catch up when the time comes.
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I predict a return to literal breadlines within 12 months.
Also there will be rioting and carnage in the streets.
The Anglo-American empire will cease to exist.
Hyperinflation will come to Britain.
4 million will be out of work.
I drove past a Welsh family selling fruit and vegetables from the back of a van today near a Cardiff layby.
A return to thrifty,traditional living is a reality.
Also there will be rioting and carnage in the streets.
The Anglo-American empire will cease to exist.
Hyperinflation will come to Britain.
4 million will be out of work.
I drove past a Welsh family selling fruit and vegetables from the back of a van today near a Cardiff layby.
A return to thrifty,traditional living is a reality.
Take a chill pill....
Irwin Stelzer was boastfully denying that the US would even enter a recession. When it did he claimed it would be fleeting and at most technical. Now that everyone knows its going to be deep and serious he's claiming it'll be over by Christmas. The man is a professional cheerleader for the US economic/political system. He's cried wolf so much that a lot of people have stopped listening to him.
An alternative economist who has called every single facet of this crisis and recession and is therefore worth listening to (perhaps) is Nouriel Roubini.
And now is only the time to train if you are a cast iron idiot with absolutely no knowledge of aviation history.
In the 1991 recession we only saw the major airline bankruptcys a year or two years later. It takes a while for the profit to slump, the costs to remain, the reserves to be used up and finally the receiver called in. The EU today estimates the most severe contraction in GDP in the UK since WW2 of 2.6%. I think this is underplaying it. However, if it is 2.6% of GDP contraction in 2009 then the commercial aviation sector will experience AT LEAST triple that figure as its essentially a Fast Moving Consumer Good/Discretionary Spending item.
Losing 7.8% of the aviation business in the UK would be the same as losing how many airliners? Given EZY and RYR would have about 160 aircraft each, BA 280, the Charters 100, the others 100 or so. And then maybe the same the year after.
Sorry. I don't know many pilots who aren't just a little bit to quite worried about their employment situation going into this storm. That anyone wants to spend £70k of their own money to sit at the bottom of all their CV's is astounding.
WWW
An alternative economist who has called every single facet of this crisis and recession and is therefore worth listening to (perhaps) is Nouriel Roubini.
And now is only the time to train if you are a cast iron idiot with absolutely no knowledge of aviation history.
In the 1991 recession we only saw the major airline bankruptcys a year or two years later. It takes a while for the profit to slump, the costs to remain, the reserves to be used up and finally the receiver called in. The EU today estimates the most severe contraction in GDP in the UK since WW2 of 2.6%. I think this is underplaying it. However, if it is 2.6% of GDP contraction in 2009 then the commercial aviation sector will experience AT LEAST triple that figure as its essentially a Fast Moving Consumer Good/Discretionary Spending item.
Losing 7.8% of the aviation business in the UK would be the same as losing how many airliners? Given EZY and RYR would have about 160 aircraft each, BA 280, the Charters 100, the others 100 or so. And then maybe the same the year after.
Sorry. I don't know many pilots who aren't just a little bit to quite worried about their employment situation going into this storm. That anyone wants to spend £70k of their own money to sit at the bottom of all their CV's is astounding.
WWW