Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Joined: Aug 2008
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From: between a rock and a hard place
We're all screwed 
HMS Britan has sunk, most of the sailors have jumped ship, only a handfull remain trying to refloat it and the life boat is a rubber dingy. The only comfort is everyone else has sunk too.
HMS Britan has sunk, most of the sailors have jumped ship, only a handfull remain trying to refloat it and the life boat is a rubber dingy. The only comfort is everyone else has sunk too.
Last edited by ChrisLKKB; 10th October 2008 at 16:46.
Joined: Jun 2008
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From: Just a bit lower than the point where the falling angel meets the rising ape
Now then everyone, just remind me,
Is it 1 sheep or 2 for a barrel of beer?
And how many bags of potatoes will get you a wife?
At least the market in novelty toilet paper sheets won't grow old anytime soon
Is it 1 sheep or 2 for a barrel of beer?
And how many bags of potatoes will get you a wife?
At least the market in novelty toilet paper sheets won't grow old anytime soon
Joined: Feb 2000
Aviation Qualifications: ATPL
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Likes: 1,846
From: England
Don't joke. This is getting very very serious. Gold and Silver have plummeted in recent hours against all normal logic. The Dow was 14,000 pre-crunch and is flirting with a number starting with a 7 now. 10% off the FTSE in the blink of an eye this morning. The Lehman auction at less than 10%. Pound in freefall.
Not much makes sense. Its panic. LIBOR ** UP ** !
This could send perfectly good airlines under for reasons totally removed from their trading situation, product or brand.
Really, tins of beans and shotguns doesn't look quite so mental at the moment. Probably a very good time to buy some shares!
WWW
Not much makes sense. Its panic. LIBOR ** UP ** !
This could send perfectly good airlines under for reasons totally removed from their trading situation, product or brand.
Really, tins of beans and shotguns doesn't look quite so mental at the moment. Probably a very good time to buy some shares!
WWW
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 261
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From: between a rock and a hard place
Originally Posted by spinaker
Not quite Chris, the Lehman credit derivatives auction is on later, $400b worth. More exciting than eBay. 
This could make or break RBS I guess.
Originally Posted by DUXBY
Buy four new flats, get two free in Birmingham.
Oh dear things are bad.
Oh dear things are bad.
they must be if people are likely to consider buying a property in Brum. 
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 261
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From: between a rock and a hard place
Originally Posted by WWW
Don't joke. This is getting very very serious. Gold and Silver have plummeted in recent hours against all normal logic
Probably a very good time to buy some shares!
This could send perfectly good airlines under for reasons totally removed from their trading situation, product or brand.
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 613
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From: england
Things are getting rather curious. Many of the fundamentals no longer apply. In a perverse sense, I'm sure some are doing rather nicely out of the volatility right now. Buy shares in a particular company and within a couple of days they may have gone down 20% and then back up 50%.
Gold was a banker but I don't agree with WWW that it has "plummeted" in the last few hours. Bloomberg use the word "tumbled" for a loss of about 5%. However, compared with most commodities and shares, the strength has remained relatively constant. Nevertheless, I get the feeling that the experts don't know what to expect on Monday morning and, as ever,rumour is taking hold, the latest being a global 5-day shut down of the markets. Whether this is true or not, it does nothing to stabilise the situation.
Gold was a banker but I don't agree with WWW that it has "plummeted" in the last few hours. Bloomberg use the word "tumbled" for a loss of about 5%. However, compared with most commodities and shares, the strength has remained relatively constant. Nevertheless, I get the feeling that the experts don't know what to expect on Monday morning and, as ever,rumour is taking hold, the latest being a global 5-day shut down of the markets. Whether this is true or not, it does nothing to stabilise the situation.
Joined: Jun 2008
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From: Just a bit lower than the point where the falling angel meets the rising ape
Originally Posted by WWW
Don't joke.
Don't joke.
Underpinning all these stories about the banks and markets falling through their own arses is the very real worry that the concept of currency as we understand it is screwed.
When one country's workers have to carry their wages home in wheelbarrows, it's news, but what happens when large chunks of the western world suffer the same fate?
Stocks, shares, and the larger part of the money we spend are all products of human imagination coupled with a fair degree of faith, and that faith is being sorely tested!
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 171
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From: tahiti
WWW, kudo's to you for predicting the potential recession in Japan.
It looks like it is going the way you predicted it to happen, probably due to recent developments in the U.S. economy.
Oil is down to 79$ in today's trading, which comes as a huge relief to airlines. Airlines in Europe will benefit less as the strong dollar is lowering the effect of lower oil prices but they are still benefiting as oil went down by over 40% compared to the euro/GBP going down by 13%.
The situation is getting out of control in the U.S.: the dollar is bubbling to unrealistic figures as stock owners try to put their hands on hard cash....
The next step?
A huge devaluation of the dollar that may take dollar notes to become toilet paper is very probable as the US government injects cash to the markets and foreign powers and corporations trading in US dollars sell their dollars for other currencies at attractive rates. Airbus is probably a likely seller of USD at this point.
If McCain wins, the dollar will likely crash, OPEC will start doing business using other currencies as oil will top the 200$/barrel very easily and the Amero will be served on a plate together with the NAU.
If Obama wins, the dollar will go down to about 1.70 against the euro pretty soon, oil will go up again, a good opportunity for habits reform.
SUV's will be abandoned for fuel-efficient diesels, electric cars, etc...
The only way for the US to save itself.
Major European airlines will be fine, except for some in the UK, Spain and other vulnerable airlines that have been doing bad before the crisis.
Overall the recovery will be faster in Europe than in the US that is likely to face depression pretty soon.
I wouldn't worry too much about the financial crisis hitting airlines.
Aircraft equities on aircraft younger than 10 years are not decreasing, though older aircraft are seeing decreasing prices, which makes it cheaper for airlines with less financial means to lease aircraft.
Load factors in the US have not been hit too hard (after the capacity cuts of course) but United is looking really bad.
The credit crisis will not affect passenger traffic in Europe, but is likely to hit traffic figures in the U.S. as people tighten the belt.
Interesting times...
It looks like it is going the way you predicted it to happen, probably due to recent developments in the U.S. economy.
Oil is down to 79$ in today's trading, which comes as a huge relief to airlines. Airlines in Europe will benefit less as the strong dollar is lowering the effect of lower oil prices but they are still benefiting as oil went down by over 40% compared to the euro/GBP going down by 13%.
The situation is getting out of control in the U.S.: the dollar is bubbling to unrealistic figures as stock owners try to put their hands on hard cash....
The next step?
A huge devaluation of the dollar that may take dollar notes to become toilet paper is very probable as the US government injects cash to the markets and foreign powers and corporations trading in US dollars sell their dollars for other currencies at attractive rates. Airbus is probably a likely seller of USD at this point.
If McCain wins, the dollar will likely crash, OPEC will start doing business using other currencies as oil will top the 200$/barrel very easily and the Amero will be served on a plate together with the NAU.
If Obama wins, the dollar will go down to about 1.70 against the euro pretty soon, oil will go up again, a good opportunity for habits reform.
SUV's will be abandoned for fuel-efficient diesels, electric cars, etc...
The only way for the US to save itself.
Major European airlines will be fine, except for some in the UK, Spain and other vulnerable airlines that have been doing bad before the crisis.
Overall the recovery will be faster in Europe than in the US that is likely to face depression pretty soon.
I wouldn't worry too much about the financial crisis hitting airlines.
Aircraft equities on aircraft younger than 10 years are not decreasing, though older aircraft are seeing decreasing prices, which makes it cheaper for airlines with less financial means to lease aircraft.
Load factors in the US have not been hit too hard (after the capacity cuts of course) but United is looking really bad.
The credit crisis will not affect passenger traffic in Europe, but is likely to hit traffic figures in the U.S. as people tighten the belt.
Interesting times...
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 261
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From: between a rock and a hard place
Pay Back for WWII
The US is poised to lose its role as a global financial “superpower” in the wake of the financial crisis, Peer Steinbrück, German finance minister, said on Thursday as he called for a regulatory crackdown on financial markets. “The US will lose its status as the superpower of the world financial system. This world will become multipolar” with the emergence of stronger, better capitalised centres in Asia and Europe, Mr Steinbrück told the German parliament. “The world will never be the same again.” Financial Times
"Chancellor Alistair Darling said governments needed to "move on from simply agreeing on a general approach."
"We will have to coordinate internationally, but beyond that there should be room for nation-specific solutions," German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said. "What Great Britain has been doing is one approach, but that does not mean that it should be transferred to any other country."
Retuers
"We will have to coordinate internationally, but beyond that there should be room for nation-specific solutions," German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said. "What Great Britain has been doing is one approach, but that does not mean that it should be transferred to any other country."
Retuers
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 43
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From: England
I have to say I love how the title of this thread is
"Growing evidence that the up-turn is upon us"
and all the posts are saying how the downturn is happening lol.
Any positives out there!?!?
I would like to give one.
The two big recruiters of low-hour pilots (flyBE and Ryanair) have only closed recruitment for about 1 maybe 2 months so far.
FlyBE says they have only closed while converting ppl onto Dash.
Winter is never a good time for airlines and even with cabin crew (for charter) they most likely get laid off in the winter months.
If we see no recruiting at all next summer, or in the lead 2 it, then I will accept that its all doom and gloom for next year.
Untill then I think we will talk ourselves into a recession.
"Growing evidence that the up-turn is upon us"
and all the posts are saying how the downturn is happening lol.
Any positives out there!?!?
I would like to give one.
The two big recruiters of low-hour pilots (flyBE and Ryanair) have only closed recruitment for about 1 maybe 2 months so far.
FlyBE says they have only closed while converting ppl onto Dash.
Winter is never a good time for airlines and even with cabin crew (for charter) they most likely get laid off in the winter months.
If we see no recruiting at all next summer, or in the lead 2 it, then I will accept that its all doom and gloom for next year.
Untill then I think we will talk ourselves into a recession.
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 88
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From: World
Hello all,
Im not really the negative type, and Im actually beginning my PPL in two weeks time. However, I do agree that things are REALLY bad now. We are facing a time, where many airlines will loose money if the banks in which they have their money in go bust!!!! If this doesnt settle down SOON, I think we will see a day where employers will not be able to pay employees! We are *&^%$% to say the least. On the other hand, the world is much different today than it was in 1929... and all companies today are goal oriented in terms of making money. This will bounce back faster than 1929 and when it does we will see a boom again (just my personal opinion). A small example of this I think is what happened after 9/11. The worst days for the airline industry and then it came back stronger than ever.
Just my two cents.
SVoa
Im not really the negative type, and Im actually beginning my PPL in two weeks time. However, I do agree that things are REALLY bad now. We are facing a time, where many airlines will loose money if the banks in which they have their money in go bust!!!! If this doesnt settle down SOON, I think we will see a day where employers will not be able to pay employees! We are *&^%$% to say the least. On the other hand, the world is much different today than it was in 1929... and all companies today are goal oriented in terms of making money. This will bounce back faster than 1929 and when it does we will see a boom again (just my personal opinion). A small example of this I think is what happened after 9/11. The worst days for the airline industry and then it came back stronger than ever.
Just my two cents.
SVoa
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 261
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From: between a rock and a hard place
We are in recession, that is a given. The G7 leaders are meeting this weekend to hopefully talk their way out of a deep recession and a repeat of the Great Depression.
I'm not sure what the best case scenario would be but it wont be the long period of sustained growth we've been experiencing.
I don't really want to contemplate the worse case scenario. This is time of genuine concern for the global economy not just the airline industry, £2.7 trillion has been wiped of global shares already.
I hope it does and we do SVoa although the lending and borrowing on a massive and incredibly complex scale which fueled this recent boom will undoubtably be paired back and closely regulated so I can't see what will fuel a new boom.
I'm not sure what the best case scenario would be but it wont be the long period of sustained growth we've been experiencing.
I don't really want to contemplate the worse case scenario. This is time of genuine concern for the global economy not just the airline industry, £2.7 trillion has been wiped of global shares already.
Originally Posted by SVoa
This will bounce back faster than 1929 and when it does we will see a boom again (just my personal opinion).
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 344
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From: Scottish FIR
A light hearted diversion
In the last 7 days Origami Bank has folded, Sumo Bank has gone belly up & Bonsai Bank announced plans to cut some of its branches.
Yesterday, it was announced that Karaoke Bank is up for sale and will likely go for a song, while today shares in Kamikaze Bank were suspended
after they nose-dived.
Furthermore, 500 staff at Karate Bank got the chop and analysts report that there is something fishy going on at Sushi Bank where it is feared that staff may get a raw deal.
Yesterday, it was announced that Karaoke Bank is up for sale and will likely go for a song, while today shares in Kamikaze Bank were suspended
after they nose-dived.
Furthermore, 500 staff at Karate Bank got the chop and analysts report that there is something fishy going on at Sushi Bank where it is feared that staff may get a raw deal.