Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 344
Likes: 0
From: Scottish FIR
Originally Posted by benish
A ryanair pilot told me they need 300 new pilots next year and expect a 40% increase in the amount of pilots over the next 3 years, not sure how true that is but its very promising.
Last edited by spinnaker; 8th October 2008 at 17:17. Reason: Lost for words!
PPRuNe Secret Agent!
Moderator
Joined: Nov 1999
Posts: 1,547
Likes: 0
From: West Sussex, UK
I speak to pilots on a daily basis, all have them say if you want it that badly you just go all in for it, they would go now with no holding back.
Edited to say, had I of realised that was my 1000th post i'd would have put in more effort!
Last edited by JB007; 8th October 2008 at 17:16. Reason: My 1,000th...!!!!!
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 261
Likes: 0
From: between a rock and a hard place
Originally Posted by Spinaker
Also remember the rescue plan is against the interests of the shareholder
I''ll be interested to find out the exact details. I find it somewhat ironic that the government are going to punish those who invest their money in UK countries yet are happy to bail out those who invest their money overseas
Originally Posted by benish
Anyway, I'm not worried about this financial crisis, we have to get on with our lives. Fair enough we may lose a night out once/twice a month because of rising costs but its not too major.
iss. What do they teaching people at school these days
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 90
Likes: 1
From: UK
Thanks for the advice, but the way I see this is that I can continue in work for 5 years ish, in a field that pays me about 1000 pounds a month, whilst trying to save for flying and (by the time im 20 ish) also have enough to be living with my partner and thinking about marriage and family. It just aint gonna happen on the wage im on. Ok i have a levels but no Uni degree. I want to work in an airport (on the crums it pays) and not behind a desk. So its go for it now and come out of debt sooner by hopefully getting a job within 5 years or stick it out on crums for wages for 5 years and wait 8 years before im an airline pilot. I already have about 2/5ths of the money needed to reaching this goal anyway so a loan wont be neccassary for about 2 years yet (just to let you know my picture).
Working alongside Jet2, and speaking to their ops and asking how its looking for jobs and them telling me that its going well, there expanding, alot of there elder pilots are moving on to larger airlines, we need men .... its not too bad.
I know i'm going to get the "go to Uni arguement", but why create more debt at this financial time of bleak? HBOS would not have gone down if its own customers had not have panicked. Fact. When you have a family member that works high up in the busines you find out one or two things.
Thats just my view.
I also think that people like your self, and others, continually telling us how bad this recession is are only making it worse. I have studied economics and consumer confidence goes a long way in casuing the problems we are having now.
Working alongside Jet2, and speaking to their ops and asking how its looking for jobs and them telling me that its going well, there expanding, alot of there elder pilots are moving on to larger airlines, we need men .... its not too bad.
I know i'm going to get the "go to Uni arguement", but why create more debt at this financial time of bleak? HBOS would not have gone down if its own customers had not have panicked. Fact. When you have a family member that works high up in the busines you find out one or two things.
Thats just my view.
I also think that people like your self, and others, continually telling us how bad this recession is are only making it worse. I have studied economics and consumer confidence goes a long way in casuing the problems we are having now.
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 261
Likes: 0
From: between a rock and a hard place
Originally Posted by benish
I also think that people like your self, and others, continually telling us how bad this recession is are only making it worse. I have studied economics and consumer confidence goes a long way in casuing the problems we are having now.
The report indicated that the squeeze on credit, as banks cut back on the amount they lend in order to repair their balance sheets, could endure until beyond 2010, implying that families will still be feeling the effects of the credit crunch far longer than most currently expect.
It said: "The deleveraging process may continue past the end of the decade. Bank balance sheets are under pressure to expand, as certain types of near-bank entities contract, fold, or are bought, and credit is re-intermediated, and as firms draw down pre-negotiated credit lines."
It said: "The deleveraging process may continue past the end of the decade. Bank balance sheets are under pressure to expand, as certain types of near-bank entities contract, fold, or are bought, and credit is re-intermediated, and as firms draw down pre-negotiated credit lines."
Joined: Feb 2000
Aviation Qualifications: ATPL
Posts: 17,503
Likes: 1,846
From: England
Of course if you'd listened to this Grumpy you'd have sold your house pre-crash, got out of Icesave in March, shorted the FTSE and the banks, planned for a major recession AND you'd still have enough left over for Cod n' Chips and your bus home. 
So listen to me now. This recession will last another 20 months and it hasn't really got going yet. There will be around 3 million unemployed. At least 2 of the top ten UK airlines will not survive ( I have no idea which two ). One of them will be in the top 5 in terms of size. In Europe things will be worse as there is less airline efficiency to start with.
DO NOT attain a JAA CPL IR Frzn ATPL and 200hrs in your logbook and expect to get a job for at least five years. FIVE.
Bailing out the banks is only the start of it. K-wave winter beckons.
WWW
So listen to me now. This recession will last another 20 months and it hasn't really got going yet. There will be around 3 million unemployed. At least 2 of the top ten UK airlines will not survive ( I have no idea which two ). One of them will be in the top 5 in terms of size. In Europe things will be worse as there is less airline efficiency to start with.
DO NOT attain a JAA CPL IR Frzn ATPL and 200hrs in your logbook and expect to get a job for at least five years. FIVE.
Bailing out the banks is only the start of it. K-wave winter beckons.
WWW
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 130
Likes: 0
From: The Land of the leprechaun
Benish you shod listen to the advice given, Im just outa uni, and had the best years of my life, gaining a fatpl, wont beat them even...
a797 is right all the way regarding the lifestyle........ Whats the point of an 18 yr old worrying about 1K monthly repayments.... You said "" I prob wont be an airline pilot until 8 years time."" making you 26/27, whats the hell is wrong with that... your still on the young side of the average i wod say....
I think you should really think about where you are going to go after school, flight school would eb the wrong option the matter how rosy you make it look to yourself....(Denial about the current situation)
Good luck with it all anyhow
a797 is right all the way regarding the lifestyle........ Whats the point of an 18 yr old worrying about 1K monthly repayments.... You said "" I prob wont be an airline pilot until 8 years time."" making you 26/27, whats the hell is wrong with that... your still on the young side of the average i wod say....
I think you should really think about where you are going to go after school, flight school would eb the wrong option the matter how rosy you make it look to yourself....(Denial about the current situation)
Good luck with it all anyhow
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 344
Likes: 0
From: Scottish FIR
benish
Yesterday the chancellor spent £20k of my money, your money, www's money, everyone's money.
Listen to what the grumps have said. Go to Uni.
Yesterday the chancellor spent £20k of my money, your money, www's money, everyone's money.
Listen to what the grumps have said. Go to Uni.
Last edited by spinnaker; 9th October 2008 at 09:40.
Joined: Dec 1999
Posts: 1,606
Likes: 0
From: UK
I also think that people like your self, and others, continually telling us how bad this recession is are only making it worse. I have studied economics and consumer confidence goes a long way in casuing the problems we are having now.
- It is a terrible market
- It will not recover soon
- You are kidding yourself to think that you would be in a position to be recruited as a low-hour fATPL for at least a number of years
- Consumer confidence is falling dramatically
- It is a global problem with nowhere to hide - no oppotunities anywhere.
I am not a grumpy, faceless complainer on a bulletin board - I am living it daily.
Get it?
Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 474
Likes: 0
From: The Desert but shortly to be HK!)
I disagree with Re-heat for once.... the package the UK government put in place yesterday was a HUGE step in the right direction. It is the start of stopping the rot in the banking sector which is a pre-requisite to any broader recovery. Banks are being recapitalised (either by the state or shareholders) and term funding markets are getting increased government guarantees/backing. This is very important.
The banking crisis is not over by any means but we are now moving in the right direction which is a clear positive. It is too late now however to stop and very very nasty recession and the pilot job market is going to get a hell of a lot worse before it gets better.... BUT government now appears to have got its head around the scale of the problem which is a complete about turn from just 2-3 months ago.
Don't get me wrong the sun hasn't come out but this is the first time I have had anything positive to say about the situation for over 6 months. (You would still have to be an idiot/gazzillionaire to sign up for an integrated course at the moment though).
The banking crisis is not over by any means but we are now moving in the right direction which is a clear positive. It is too late now however to stop and very very nasty recession and the pilot job market is going to get a hell of a lot worse before it gets better.... BUT government now appears to have got its head around the scale of the problem which is a complete about turn from just 2-3 months ago.
Don't get me wrong the sun hasn't come out but this is the first time I have had anything positive to say about the situation for over 6 months. (You would still have to be an idiot/gazzillionaire to sign up for an integrated course at the moment though).
Joined: Jul 2000
Posts: 200
Likes: 0
From: west of the Tamar
Benish:
What makes you think JET2 will be around in the future? Those short breaks in Alicante or Amsterdam are a luxury that before long, many punters will no longer be able to justify. J2 and many other smaller lo-co operations were born from the late 90's flying boom that was enabled by lots of disposable income, continual cost-cutting in the airline industry and availability of easy credit for airlines to expand. None of these conditions exist now. The likes of J2 don't have the kind of extensive and varied route network of EZY to be viable in the present economic climate.
The 1973-4 recession saw the demise of Court Line, which I remember well. One of the UK's biggest holiday airlines, it was also built on a very rapidly growing market, and cheap credit for expansion, together with cheap fuel. Sounds familiar? The 1973-4 recession and big increases in fuel prices soon changed the economics of the operation, and their collapse took many by surprise.
The early 1990's downturn saw the collapse of Air Europe, Dan-Air (taken over by BA for peanuts), Paramount and many others.
My money is on EZY and FlyBe surviving this recession, among the UK-based lo-co's. I'm not convinced any of the others will make it.
What makes you think JET2 will be around in the future? Those short breaks in Alicante or Amsterdam are a luxury that before long, many punters will no longer be able to justify. J2 and many other smaller lo-co operations were born from the late 90's flying boom that was enabled by lots of disposable income, continual cost-cutting in the airline industry and availability of easy credit for airlines to expand. None of these conditions exist now. The likes of J2 don't have the kind of extensive and varied route network of EZY to be viable in the present economic climate.
The 1973-4 recession saw the demise of Court Line, which I remember well. One of the UK's biggest holiday airlines, it was also built on a very rapidly growing market, and cheap credit for expansion, together with cheap fuel. Sounds familiar? The 1973-4 recession and big increases in fuel prices soon changed the economics of the operation, and their collapse took many by surprise.
The early 1990's downturn saw the collapse of Air Europe, Dan-Air (taken over by BA for peanuts), Paramount and many others.
My money is on EZY and FlyBe surviving this recession, among the UK-based lo-co's. I'm not convinced any of the others will make it.
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 75
Likes: 0
From: UK
From what I am reading about the Great Depression there seems to be quite a few similarities with what has happened/is happening now. If this is so, it seems there will be a general 'calm' and apparent improvement in things for a few months before the real stuff hits.
Would someone more knowlegeable on the subject care to comment?
Would someone more knowlegeable on the subject care to comment?
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 179
Likes: 0
From: Stockholm
Has anyone discussed what will happen if the oil barrel will be >$200 ?
Wouldn't that kill absolutley all airlines?
Because oil >$200 will happen, maybe not this year nor next, but in the future.
Eikido
Wouldn't that kill absolutley all airlines?
Because oil >$200 will happen, maybe not this year nor next, but in the future.
Eikido
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 344
Likes: 0
From: Scottish FIR
Black Knat
Interesting post.
Having looked at the comments made by a few historians on the economy, they tend to support your own observations. However, there is an emerging difference. You may have seen me and others harping on about individual countries acting in isolation for the purpose of self interest. Yesterday we saw a coordinated effort by 7 central banks to drop interest rates, and further news coming forth about further and wider involvement in coordinated efforts. This is something that never really happened in the Great Depression, or when it did, it was way too late. What we don't know, is if the current activities are timely to prevent Great Depression MkII. The boat has been missed to prevent a deep recession and the worry now is that the UK has put so much money into the system, all that is left in the armoury is interest rate cuts. I don't think we have a plan 'B'
The current crisis hasn't hit the streets yet, but it will, and it'll be hard.
Interesting post.
Having looked at the comments made by a few historians on the economy, they tend to support your own observations. However, there is an emerging difference. You may have seen me and others harping on about individual countries acting in isolation for the purpose of self interest. Yesterday we saw a coordinated effort by 7 central banks to drop interest rates, and further news coming forth about further and wider involvement in coordinated efforts. This is something that never really happened in the Great Depression, or when it did, it was way too late. What we don't know, is if the current activities are timely to prevent Great Depression MkII. The boat has been missed to prevent a deep recession and the worry now is that the UK has put so much money into the system, all that is left in the armoury is interest rate cuts. I don't think we have a plan 'B'
The current crisis hasn't hit the streets yet, but it will, and it'll be hard.