Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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Benish you shod listen to the advice given, Im just outa uni, and had the best years of my life, gaining a fatpl, wont beat them even...
a797 is right all the way regarding the lifestyle........ Whats the point of an 18 yr old worrying about 1K monthly repayments.... You said "" I prob wont be an airline pilot until 8 years time."" making you 26/27, whats the hell is wrong with that... your still on the young side of the average i wod say....
I think you should really think about where you are going to go after school, flight school would eb the wrong option the matter how rosy you make it look to yourself....(Denial about the current situation)
Good luck with it all anyhow
a797 is right all the way regarding the lifestyle........ Whats the point of an 18 yr old worrying about 1K monthly repayments.... You said "" I prob wont be an airline pilot until 8 years time."" making you 26/27, whats the hell is wrong with that... your still on the young side of the average i wod say....
I think you should really think about where you are going to go after school, flight school would eb the wrong option the matter how rosy you make it look to yourself....(Denial about the current situation)
Good luck with it all anyhow
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benish
Yesterday the chancellor spent £20k of my money, your money, www's money, everyone's money.
Listen to what the grumps have said. Go to Uni.
Yesterday the chancellor spent £20k of my money, your money, www's money, everyone's money.
Listen to what the grumps have said. Go to Uni.
Last edited by spinnaker; 9th Oct 2008 at 09:40.
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I also think that people like your self, and others, continually telling us how bad this recession is are only making it worse. I have studied economics and consumer confidence goes a long way in casuing the problems we are having now.
- It is a terrible market
- It will not recover soon
- You are kidding yourself to think that you would be in a position to be recruited as a low-hour fATPL for at least a number of years
- Consumer confidence is falling dramatically
- It is a global problem with nowhere to hide - no oppotunities anywhere.
I am not a grumpy, faceless complainer on a bulletin board - I am living it daily.
Get it?
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I disagree with Re-heat for once.... the package the UK government put in place yesterday was a HUGE step in the right direction. It is the start of stopping the rot in the banking sector which is a pre-requisite to any broader recovery. Banks are being recapitalised (either by the state or shareholders) and term funding markets are getting increased government guarantees/backing. This is very important.
The banking crisis is not over by any means but we are now moving in the right direction which is a clear positive. It is too late now however to stop and very very nasty recession and the pilot job market is going to get a hell of a lot worse before it gets better.... BUT government now appears to have got its head around the scale of the problem which is a complete about turn from just 2-3 months ago.
Don't get me wrong the sun hasn't come out but this is the first time I have had anything positive to say about the situation for over 6 months. (You would still have to be an idiot/gazzillionaire to sign up for an integrated course at the moment though).
The banking crisis is not over by any means but we are now moving in the right direction which is a clear positive. It is too late now however to stop and very very nasty recession and the pilot job market is going to get a hell of a lot worse before it gets better.... BUT government now appears to have got its head around the scale of the problem which is a complete about turn from just 2-3 months ago.
Don't get me wrong the sun hasn't come out but this is the first time I have had anything positive to say about the situation for over 6 months. (You would still have to be an idiot/gazzillionaire to sign up for an integrated course at the moment though).
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Benish:
What makes you think JET2 will be around in the future? Those short breaks in Alicante or Amsterdam are a luxury that before long, many punters will no longer be able to justify. J2 and many other smaller lo-co operations were born from the late 90's flying boom that was enabled by lots of disposable income, continual cost-cutting in the airline industry and availability of easy credit for airlines to expand. None of these conditions exist now. The likes of J2 don't have the kind of extensive and varied route network of EZY to be viable in the present economic climate.
The 1973-4 recession saw the demise of Court Line, which I remember well. One of the UK's biggest holiday airlines, it was also built on a very rapidly growing market, and cheap credit for expansion, together with cheap fuel. Sounds familiar? The 1973-4 recession and big increases in fuel prices soon changed the economics of the operation, and their collapse took many by surprise.
The early 1990's downturn saw the collapse of Air Europe, Dan-Air (taken over by BA for peanuts), Paramount and many others.
My money is on EZY and FlyBe surviving this recession, among the UK-based lo-co's. I'm not convinced any of the others will make it.
What makes you think JET2 will be around in the future? Those short breaks in Alicante or Amsterdam are a luxury that before long, many punters will no longer be able to justify. J2 and many other smaller lo-co operations were born from the late 90's flying boom that was enabled by lots of disposable income, continual cost-cutting in the airline industry and availability of easy credit for airlines to expand. None of these conditions exist now. The likes of J2 don't have the kind of extensive and varied route network of EZY to be viable in the present economic climate.
The 1973-4 recession saw the demise of Court Line, which I remember well. One of the UK's biggest holiday airlines, it was also built on a very rapidly growing market, and cheap credit for expansion, together with cheap fuel. Sounds familiar? The 1973-4 recession and big increases in fuel prices soon changed the economics of the operation, and their collapse took many by surprise.
The early 1990's downturn saw the collapse of Air Europe, Dan-Air (taken over by BA for peanuts), Paramount and many others.
My money is on EZY and FlyBe surviving this recession, among the UK-based lo-co's. I'm not convinced any of the others will make it.
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From what I am reading about the Great Depression there seems to be quite a few similarities with what has happened/is happening now. If this is so, it seems there will be a general 'calm' and apparent improvement in things for a few months before the real stuff hits.
Would someone more knowlegeable on the subject care to comment?
Would someone more knowlegeable on the subject care to comment?
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Has anyone discussed what will happen if the oil barrel will be >$200 ?
Wouldn't that kill absolutley all airlines?
Because oil >$200 will happen, maybe not this year nor next, but in the future.
Eikido
Wouldn't that kill absolutley all airlines?
Because oil >$200 will happen, maybe not this year nor next, but in the future.
Eikido
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Black Knat
Interesting post.
Having looked at the comments made by a few historians on the economy, they tend to support your own observations. However, there is an emerging difference. You may have seen me and others harping on about individual countries acting in isolation for the purpose of self interest. Yesterday we saw a coordinated effort by 7 central banks to drop interest rates, and further news coming forth about further and wider involvement in coordinated efforts. This is something that never really happened in the Great Depression, or when it did, it was way too late. What we don't know, is if the current activities are timely to prevent Great Depression MkII. The boat has been missed to prevent a deep recession and the worry now is that the UK has put so much money into the system, all that is left in the armoury is interest rate cuts. I don't think we have a plan 'B'
The current crisis hasn't hit the streets yet, but it will, and it'll be hard.
Interesting post.
Having looked at the comments made by a few historians on the economy, they tend to support your own observations. However, there is an emerging difference. You may have seen me and others harping on about individual countries acting in isolation for the purpose of self interest. Yesterday we saw a coordinated effort by 7 central banks to drop interest rates, and further news coming forth about further and wider involvement in coordinated efforts. This is something that never really happened in the Great Depression, or when it did, it was way too late. What we don't know, is if the current activities are timely to prevent Great Depression MkII. The boat has been missed to prevent a deep recession and the worry now is that the UK has put so much money into the system, all that is left in the armoury is interest rate cuts. I don't think we have a plan 'B'
The current crisis hasn't hit the streets yet, but it will, and it'll be hard.
Some time ago and to hoots of derision I pointed out that oil was a sideshow. On a typical shorthaul low cost airline ticket its £20 - £30 even at $147 a barrel. Less than the car park.
The IR cut yesterday will save the typical £150,000 mortgage holder £25 a month. You think that's fixed the problem and saved the economy? Me neither.
WWW
The IR cut yesterday will save the typical £150,000 mortgage holder £25 a month. You think that's fixed the problem and saved the economy? Me neither.
WWW
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Black Knat
I do suspect we will see a brief but significant up turn in the stock market before we really hit the bottom.
Although I don't think we can draw exact conclusions from past averages and statictics as we haven't had this level of intervention from governments.
I do suspect we will see a brief but significant up turn in the stock market before we really hit the bottom.
Although I don't think we can draw exact conclusions from past averages and statictics as we haven't had this level of intervention from governments.
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Topslide-
I am interested in your comments about houses as I think that could be the trigger that causes the final collapse of the financial system in its current form within the UK.
My thinking goes along the lines that most people have had to take a mortgage out to buy a home. While they stay in employment they can afford the payments. Assuming massive job losses, many won't be able to pay the mortgage. Given 'normal' conditions they would sell the house and clear the loan (given no negative equity).
In the current situation people who would 'normally' be regarded as good borrowers are unable to obtain a mortgage due to the credit squeeze. Coupled with this the confidence in the housing market has collapsed, hence rapidly falling prices.
The result of the above will mean millions of people will not be able to get rid of their homeloans. However, when they default on the loan and possibly give up and hand the keys back to the bank/lender, the result will be that these lenders end up with thousands or millions of properties that they cannot sell (or at least sell at realistic prices). What happens then?
I am interested in your comments about houses as I think that could be the trigger that causes the final collapse of the financial system in its current form within the UK.
My thinking goes along the lines that most people have had to take a mortgage out to buy a home. While they stay in employment they can afford the payments. Assuming massive job losses, many won't be able to pay the mortgage. Given 'normal' conditions they would sell the house and clear the loan (given no negative equity).
In the current situation people who would 'normally' be regarded as good borrowers are unable to obtain a mortgage due to the credit squeeze. Coupled with this the confidence in the housing market has collapsed, hence rapidly falling prices.
The result of the above will mean millions of people will not be able to get rid of their homeloans. However, when they default on the loan and possibly give up and hand the keys back to the bank/lender, the result will be that these lenders end up with thousands or millions of properties that they cannot sell (or at least sell at realistic prices). What happens then?
What really gives the government and the banks the heebie geebies is the following scenario.
The trickle of people using the bankruptcy courts starts to swell. Somebody on Trisha or Jeremy Kyle mentions how good it was just to get rid of the negative equity house and the credit card and the consolodated loan. Suddenly the chav minions collectively decide they like the sound of this and the queue around the block for the bankruptcy courts are longer than for the bank run.
The Judge can see that some are genuinely bankrupt but also that a lot have made themselves this way. But if he tries to fine or imprison those in front of him who are attempting fraud he knows that, 1) they have no money, and 2) there are only 982 prison places spare this week in the prison system. The Courts will have no viable sanction against tens of thousands of bankruptcy claims.
The hard pressed but solvent population will soon cotton on to the fact that the reckless, feckless and lazy are exploiting bankruptcy to escape the debt treadmill scot free and they will be enraged. Politically this is difficult and their rage will encourage them to max their credit cards, lose their job, go bust, and spend more time with the kids they barely have time to see.
By this point the banks and creditors are in real trouble as they are havig to write off millions of loans and the assets being seized are worth zip. Property auctions are ALREADY flooded with repossessed properties that are not making their reserve set at half peak valuations. I could show you hundreds of catalogues.
Quite quickly the whole system of capitalism, of banking and debt finance collapses. A whole section of society will have cottoned on that there is no debtors prison and that they can recklessly borrow with impunity. Therefore the banks will have to go back to 1950's style lending practice and this will only support an economy a fraction of the size we are used to and politicians are used to taxing.
The whole edifice of 'the system' is currently swaying because the fundamental debt instrument - house prices - are crumbling. Until those prices stop falling the walls will continue to crack and Mr Darlings expensive plaster work will never set.
In the end its all about the house prices.
WWW
The trickle of people using the bankruptcy courts starts to swell. Somebody on Trisha or Jeremy Kyle mentions how good it was just to get rid of the negative equity house and the credit card and the consolodated loan. Suddenly the chav minions collectively decide they like the sound of this and the queue around the block for the bankruptcy courts are longer than for the bank run.
The Judge can see that some are genuinely bankrupt but also that a lot have made themselves this way. But if he tries to fine or imprison those in front of him who are attempting fraud he knows that, 1) they have no money, and 2) there are only 982 prison places spare this week in the prison system. The Courts will have no viable sanction against tens of thousands of bankruptcy claims.
The hard pressed but solvent population will soon cotton on to the fact that the reckless, feckless and lazy are exploiting bankruptcy to escape the debt treadmill scot free and they will be enraged. Politically this is difficult and their rage will encourage them to max their credit cards, lose their job, go bust, and spend more time with the kids they barely have time to see.
By this point the banks and creditors are in real trouble as they are havig to write off millions of loans and the assets being seized are worth zip. Property auctions are ALREADY flooded with repossessed properties that are not making their reserve set at half peak valuations. I could show you hundreds of catalogues.
Quite quickly the whole system of capitalism, of banking and debt finance collapses. A whole section of society will have cottoned on that there is no debtors prison and that they can recklessly borrow with impunity. Therefore the banks will have to go back to 1950's style lending practice and this will only support an economy a fraction of the size we are used to and politicians are used to taxing.
The whole edifice of 'the system' is currently swaying because the fundamental debt instrument - house prices - are crumbling. Until those prices stop falling the walls will continue to crack and Mr Darlings expensive plaster work will never set.
In the end its all about the house prices.
WWW
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Believe it or not guys everything you have mentioned above is known and has been known for sometime.... Jo public is just catching up. It is the reason wholesale funding markets has been shut for over a year and there are calls to recapitalise the banks.
Bad debts have yet to really spike or threaten bank levels of bank capital so all of the measures currently being taken are in anticipation of the events you talk about. Most losses to date at banks have been taken on debt securities where mark to market losses force banks to take future losses today. Loan losses can be spread over a greater time period and at least partially be absorbed by ongoing earnings. Total "cash" losses on sub-prime to date have only been 5-10% of the write-downs booked by the banks. I am no a bull on the economy but the banking sector and markets have moved well ahead of your thinking..... the government intervention and bank recapitalisation is a big step forward and will help stop things getting even worse.
Topslide the US & UK government intervention was necessary. Without it the FTSE would be much more than 1000pts lower. Time will tell and I have been uber bearish on this site for months but it is churlish to ignore positive and necessary steps that are being taken. And the £500bn will be collateralised so the bulk will be repaid. It is not "spent" like the money on the Olympics so your comparison is not 100% accurate. The governement will also actually make money on the capital injected into the banks given the coupon they will charge relative to their cost of borrowing. Banks will repay this 10-15 years down the line once they have rebuilt equity organically.
The people I talk to are very very positive about actions taken this week and I am comfortable many of them know what they are talking about.
Bad debts have yet to really spike or threaten bank levels of bank capital so all of the measures currently being taken are in anticipation of the events you talk about. Most losses to date at banks have been taken on debt securities where mark to market losses force banks to take future losses today. Loan losses can be spread over a greater time period and at least partially be absorbed by ongoing earnings. Total "cash" losses on sub-prime to date have only been 5-10% of the write-downs booked by the banks. I am no a bull on the economy but the banking sector and markets have moved well ahead of your thinking..... the government intervention and bank recapitalisation is a big step forward and will help stop things getting even worse.
Topslide the US & UK government intervention was necessary. Without it the FTSE would be much more than 1000pts lower. Time will tell and I have been uber bearish on this site for months but it is churlish to ignore positive and necessary steps that are being taken. And the £500bn will be collateralised so the bulk will be repaid. It is not "spent" like the money on the Olympics so your comparison is not 100% accurate. The governement will also actually make money on the capital injected into the banks given the coupon they will charge relative to their cost of borrowing. Banks will repay this 10-15 years down the line once they have rebuilt equity organically.
The people I talk to are very very positive about actions taken this week and I am comfortable many of them know what they are talking about.