Bad Weather Decision?
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I have had some really good flights with experienced pilots in bad weather recently.
I would still not fly for fun unless the weather is good but if you can get a few flights with others it will give you a better understanding of the weather and how the aircraft will handle the conditions.
I saw one of TonyR's mates in their TB20 comming back from Dijon in France to Aldergrove last night, so things must have been flyable.
Ken
I would still not fly for fun unless the weather is good but if you can get a few flights with others it will give you a better understanding of the weather and how the aircraft will handle the conditions.
I saw one of TonyR's mates in their TB20 comming back from Dijon in France to Aldergrove last night, so things must have been flyable.
Ken
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What's an "adverse effect"? Do you mean you don't fly if there's a thunderstorm within 100 miles? Why not? If you can see convection, you don't have to fly into it. But if you abort a flight every time there's a PROB30 TEMPO SHRA on the forecast, you'll never find that out. The x-wind would worry me much more, because at some point you know you're going to have to deal with it.
but if I couldn't fully comprehend the siutation then it may not be a bad idea. We may have to beg to differ a little. X-winds are pretty frequent and if I didn't like those then my flying time would be limited. They are also a known quantity and pretty easy to deal with. TS on the other hand are not. You may see the convection in the distance, but as I have read of what has happened to many others in the past and using my new fangled met knowledge, new CBs can develop around you quite quickly, then it may well be land away and ruin your day or curtains. Like every other human, my acceptable level of risk changes depending on how badly I need to fly. Thus far I have never had to fly. I hope when I do, I stay level headed.
BTW, I decided not to fly today (Sat) too. Not uniquely dangerous but: EGLF 030910Z 031019 25015KT 9999 SCT025 TEMPO 1019 25018G28KT 8000 SHRA PROB30 TEMPO 1019 4000 +SHRA BKN025CB
Cloud base is marginal, G28 is going to happen at some point. PROB30 is unlikely, but if it does then am certain I will be in trouble. I can still hear the odd SEP overhead my house, definately a case of wish I was up there! If that wind passes then I may pop-up for circuits.
Last edited by High Wing Drifter; 3rd Jul 2004 at 09:29.
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Some one mentioned the IMC rating....
IMHO, holders of the IMC rating shouldn't knowingly fly into IMC. It's great to get you out of trouble should you find yourself in it!
Foxy.
IMHO, holders of the IMC rating shouldn't knowingly fly into IMC. It's great to get you out of trouble should you find yourself in it!
Foxy.
Don't take 100 miles too literally, I was trying to make a point but if I couldn't fully comprehend the siutation then it may not be a bad idea. We may have to beg to differ a little. X-winds are pretty frequent and if I didn't like those then my flying time would be limited. They are also a known quantity and pretty easy to deal with. TS on the other hand are not. You may see the convection in the distance, but as I have read of what has happened to many others in the past and using my new fangled met knowledge, new CBs can develop around you quite quickly, then it may well be land away and ruin your day or curtains.
Convective weather (SHRA, TS) and overnight fog/clag are probably the two most common features that get a PROB30/40 or TEMPO on a TAF. In many ways, that's unfortunate, because, while they are both statistical in nature, they are different in a significant way for the pilot.
Fog/clag is statistical because it's very sensitive to small changes in temperature beyond the limits of prediction. But those temperature changes can happen over large areas all at the same time. So when you see every TAF in the SE of England with PROB40 TEMPO 0610 0200 FG, there's a fair chance that most of the SE of England will be socked in and a fair chance that there's won't be fog within 200 miles.
Convection is different. Simple physics suggest that the whole sky cannot be an updraft. So convection has to happen in cells. Those cells will be somewhere, and, depending on wind speed, they may move. But they won't be everywhere. That means that it's usually possible to go round convection. You may have to delay your departure for a shower to pass through, you may have to hold for one to pass at your destination, or even divert. But as long as you can see it, and providing you carefully consider your "outs", you can usually make a flight going round the weather. That's not to say that there's "always a way through" -- showers and storms can form in lines.
BTW, I decided not to fly today (Sat) too. Not uniquely dangerous but: EGLF 030910Z 031019 25015KT 9999 SCT025 TEMPO 1019 25018G28KT 8000 SHRA PROB30 TEMPO 1019 4000 +SHRA BKN025CB
Cloud base is marginal, G28 is going to happen at some point. PROB30 is unlikely, but if it does then am certain I will be in trouble.
Cloud base is marginal, G28 is going to happen at some point. PROB30 is unlikely, but if it does then am certain I will be in trouble.
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Bookworm,
Now that I can't argue with!
Foxy Loxy,
Like TonyR I have to ask why too?
So have a plan, and be prepared to turn round.
Foxy Loxy,
MHO, holders of the IMC rating shouldn't knowingly fly into IMC. It's great to get you out of trouble should you find yourself in it!
The Original Whirly
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If IMC holders don't practise flying in IMC, they won't be able to use it successfully to get out of trouble. Instrument flying degrades more quickly than most other skills; you need to keep in practice.
Bookworm,
I guess I realised I was answering a slightly different question. I just felt it needed saying. People beat themselves up over not flying, when the fact that they didn't feel like challenging themselves is, as you say, a perfectly good reason for not flying. I think it's something we sometimes forget in the "must push yourself" culture of the keen GA pilot.
Bookworm,
I guess I realised I was answering a slightly different question. I just felt it needed saying. People beat themselves up over not flying, when the fact that they didn't feel like challenging themselves is, as you say, a perfectly good reason for not flying. I think it's something we sometimes forget in the "must push yourself" culture of the keen GA pilot.
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Yesterday was not the day for flying for pleasure. After my previous post I watched a 777 depart. Couldn't fly the SID, had to take a left turn instead of a right turn on dep and could not accept headings for most of the route across the UK where he failed to get climb above Fl 90.
Question - if you are a newly qualified PPL and flying a club/school aircraft, do you not get any advice from the instructors? Okay, so some bright sparks turn round and tell you that you're in the L/H seat - your responsibility, but.............
Question - if you are a newly qualified PPL and flying a club/school aircraft, do you not get any advice from the instructors? Okay, so some bright sparks turn round and tell you that you're in the L/H seat - your responsibility, but.............
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Flying in IMC is one thing, but flying over the last few days would have involved flying in the vicinity of CBs and associated thunderstorm activity which has tested the most experienced and professional of pilots and biggest of aeroplanes.
The recent weather is a fine example of the "four seasons in one day" that can often occur in the UK.
To suggest that anyone with a IMC rating or any amount of experience could have coped if caught out in the weather we've had, when flying a light aircraft is, to say the least, highly questionable.
The recent weather is a fine example of the "four seasons in one day" that can often occur in the UK.
To suggest that anyone with a IMC rating or any amount of experience could have coped if caught out in the weather we've had, when flying a light aircraft is, to say the least, highly questionable.
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Here are a few pics from a couple of weeks ago on the way to Compton Abass. First picture is a thunder cloud more or less over Goodwood, the lightning looked amazing in the cloud. The rain is clearly visable in the centre/right of the picture.
Second picture is straight ahead seconds later with heavy rain clearly visable just off the Isle of Wight. We were lucky, we hardly went off course at all, just slightly around the thunder one but not much. Luck of the draw that day really, If we had left taking off by about 20 mins, we wouldn't have been able to go up. Once up it wasn't too bad to be honest. A bit choppy now and again and I am certain we would have headed strait back if things got worse.
Second picture is straight ahead seconds later with heavy rain clearly visable just off the Isle of Wight. We were lucky, we hardly went off course at all, just slightly around the thunder one but not much. Luck of the draw that day really, If we had left taking off by about 20 mins, we wouldn't have been able to go up. Once up it wasn't too bad to be honest. A bit choppy now and again and I am certain we would have headed strait back if things got worse.
I guess I realised I was answering a slightly different question. I just felt it needed saying. People beat themselves up over not flying, when the fact that they didn't feel like challenging themselves is, as you say, a perfectly good reason for not flying. I think it's something we sometimes forget in the "must push yourself" culture of the keen GA pilot.
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IMHO, holders of the IMC rating shouldn't knowingly fly into IMC. It's great to get you out of trouble should you find yourself in it!
1) Have you ever had one? if NO then may I suggest that you discover a bit more before such sweeping statements
2) If so how good was your training? If the answer here is POOR then don't tarnish those of us who had damn good training and stayed current with the same brush
As someone who flew on the back of an IMC for years before getting an IR in all conditions (Yes, I was always current and make sure I stayed that way) I had no qualms about flying in IMC providing my abilities were up to the prevailing conditions - like anything it's just another point to consider in the "risk assessment" game.
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CM
100% absolutely well said!
I have met loads of people who slag off the IMC Rating, and to my best recollection each and every one of them had no experience on which to base that attitude.
I do some 150hrs/year, in a modern airways-equipped aircraft in which absolutely everything works, loads of it IFR, and that's more than good enough for the privileges of either the IMCR or the IR, in UK weather.
Now, if somebody said something like "the standard of IMCR instruction is often poor, and most pilots have difficulty getting their hands on a suitable aircraft" that might be something worth discussing. But one could say the same about the basic PPL, actual training versus the theoretical privileges, and we would start yet another thread on the subject....
Regarding the original question of a go/no go decision, caution/safety is one of those areas where one is always on a hiding to nothing ("human life is priceless, and any speed kills, hence speed limits should be zero ....") however I don't generally go along with the often patronising attitude of so many GA elders, exemplified by statements such as "if there is doubt, there is no doubt". If one has had a certain training, one has an aircraft which functions adequately for the task, and the conditions are within all technical limits, and there are fallback options (enough reserve fuel to get to a realistic alternate) then one may as well do the flight.
The alternative is a gradual loss of confidence, ending in the ending of one's flying and wasting of the £5k-£10k (plus a huge amount of time and hassle) one has thrown at doing the PPL. This is what happens to some 90%+ of PPL holders, before their first renewal comes up after two years.
A professional pilot doesn't say "I don't really feel like flying now, but I can't put my finger on why". He has had a higher level of training and flies a much more capable aircraft, so his go/no go decision is made at a higher level of technical challenge, but fundamentally there is no difference.
(Passengers are a separate issue; often a backup plan is a huge hassle because they cannot be dumped at some hotel for the night if the weather closes in, but that is "PPL flying"...)
It is because the training is so inadequate that we get a PPL, with legal daylight VMC privileges down to 3k vis, and then we are told to not fly if the conditions look ever so slightly iffy.
This is missing the objective which is to learn the skills one has paid for, and make use of them.
100% absolutely well said!
I have met loads of people who slag off the IMC Rating, and to my best recollection each and every one of them had no experience on which to base that attitude.
I do some 150hrs/year, in a modern airways-equipped aircraft in which absolutely everything works, loads of it IFR, and that's more than good enough for the privileges of either the IMCR or the IR, in UK weather.
Now, if somebody said something like "the standard of IMCR instruction is often poor, and most pilots have difficulty getting their hands on a suitable aircraft" that might be something worth discussing. But one could say the same about the basic PPL, actual training versus the theoretical privileges, and we would start yet another thread on the subject....
Regarding the original question of a go/no go decision, caution/safety is one of those areas where one is always on a hiding to nothing ("human life is priceless, and any speed kills, hence speed limits should be zero ....") however I don't generally go along with the often patronising attitude of so many GA elders, exemplified by statements such as "if there is doubt, there is no doubt". If one has had a certain training, one has an aircraft which functions adequately for the task, and the conditions are within all technical limits, and there are fallback options (enough reserve fuel to get to a realistic alternate) then one may as well do the flight.
The alternative is a gradual loss of confidence, ending in the ending of one's flying and wasting of the £5k-£10k (plus a huge amount of time and hassle) one has thrown at doing the PPL. This is what happens to some 90%+ of PPL holders, before their first renewal comes up after two years.
A professional pilot doesn't say "I don't really feel like flying now, but I can't put my finger on why". He has had a higher level of training and flies a much more capable aircraft, so his go/no go decision is made at a higher level of technical challenge, but fundamentally there is no difference.
(Passengers are a separate issue; often a backup plan is a huge hassle because they cannot be dumped at some hotel for the night if the weather closes in, but that is "PPL flying"...)
It is because the training is so inadequate that we get a PPL, with legal daylight VMC privileges down to 3k vis, and then we are told to not fly if the conditions look ever so slightly iffy.
This is missing the objective which is to learn the skills one has paid for, and make use of them.
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IO540,
I am finding your posts very though provoking. I am doing my IMC (just the skills test to do next week) specifically so I can dart off into the wild grey yonder. I have been fortunate in that much of my training has been in real IMC which is, IMHO, a different kettle of fish to foggles. Therein may lie the problem.
I am finding your posts very though provoking. I am doing my IMC (just the skills test to do next week) specifically so I can dart off into the wild grey yonder. I have been fortunate in that much of my training has been in real IMC which is, IMHO, a different kettle of fish to foggles. Therein may lie the problem.
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Penguina here. Back indeed from flowerland!
Well, I read all these comments with interest and thank you for your words of comfort. They help! I knew you'd understand.
Quite a few people talked about consultation with an instructor or the club as an option. GK430 even sounded rather critical. Strange as it may seem, I do actually do this! Friday was a good example of where it was not so helpful.
I made up my own mind, on the basis of the various 'PROB's in the TAFs, that the weather was not good enough to undertake what I'd planned. This decision was partly based on the fact that I HAD to be at my destination this weekend. I couldn't risk needing to divert and, moreover, spotted the potential to find myself attempting to battle on where I should really be looking to land somewhere.
I then phoned the club to cancel and they were clearly a little surprised as the weather wasn't too bad at the field. To their credit, they didn't attempt to persuade me outright not to cancel my flight, but they did instill the doubt in my mind that led me to post here in the first place.
Things were not helped when, at my beautiful destination, the weather was rather gorgeous for two days!
I've been stupidly overloaded and busy with not-fun things lately (as well as a nasty accident), pining for my other world of hushed, slow-changing landscapes and wandering shadows of clouds, where I feel in control for a change!
As to flying with instructors, I agree this has its place, especially if the instructor is good. However, the effect on me of having to defer, which I find undermines my own confidence a bit, has to be set against that benefit of gaining experience of adverse conditions 'safely'. I have spent a lot of time with instructors...
Whirlybird is of course right: no point in paying to be miserable. But there are times when I have thought I didn't feel like it, couldn't face it, would rather have a beer, etc., but forced myself to make make that psychological upheaval and fly - and landed glittering with enthusiasm and pride, itching to go again tomorrow! This is what makes it such an impossible call!
Looks like the agonising decisions don't stop with the IMC either!
Well, I read all these comments with interest and thank you for your words of comfort. They help! I knew you'd understand.
Quite a few people talked about consultation with an instructor or the club as an option. GK430 even sounded rather critical. Strange as it may seem, I do actually do this!
Friday was a good example of where it was not so helpful. I made up my own mind, on the basis of the various 'PROB's in the TAFs, that the weather was not good enough to undertake what I'd planned. This decision was partly based on the fact that I HAD to be at my destination this weekend. I couldn't risk needing to divert and, moreover, spotted the potential to find myself attempting to battle on where I should really be looking to land somewhere.
I then phoned the club to cancel and they were clearly a little surprised as the weather wasn't too bad at the field. To their credit, they didn't attempt to persuade me outright not to cancel my flight, but they did instill the doubt in my mind that led me to post here in the first place.
Things were not helped when, at my beautiful destination, the weather was rather gorgeous for two days!
I've been stupidly overloaded and busy with not-fun things lately (as well as a nasty accident), pining for my other world of hushed, slow-changing landscapes and wandering shadows of clouds, where I feel in control for a change!As to flying with instructors, I agree this has its place, especially if the instructor is good. However, the effect on me of having to defer, which I find undermines my own confidence a bit, has to be set against that benefit of gaining experience of adverse conditions 'safely'. I have spent a lot of time with instructors...
"I just don't feel like facing that particular challenge today". When people make fatal mistakes in aircraft, it's often because they hadn't fully committed the time and mental effort required to get it right on the day.
Looks like the agonising decisions don't stop with the IMC either!
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Big girls blouse
To be honest i think I am getting more reluctant to fly in crap wx VFR the more hours I have under my belt.
May be its because people can say less and less about my refusal the more experence I have. And more to the point I really don't give a toss any more about there opinion of me if i do refuse to fly in conditions which I ain't happy with. I used to have to get planes places just so i could earn a living and i admit I proberly did do trips which were taking the piss with VFR rules.
You have to remember why you are going up. It,s to have fun and enjoy yourself not crap yourself from the moment the gear is off the deck to the sigh of relief when the wheels touch down again. Leave the crap wx flying to the pros and save your money for nice days when your going to enjoy yourself, life is to short to take supid risks.
MJ
IMC is a brillant get out of jail free card but it is totally useless unless you stay in practise. The 2 years is not enough you need to be doing a approach at least once every 8 weeks just to keep your hand in. Other than that you know enough to be dangerous .....
May be its because people can say less and less about my refusal the more experence I have. And more to the point I really don't give a toss any more about there opinion of me if i do refuse to fly in conditions which I ain't happy with. I used to have to get planes places just so i could earn a living and i admit I proberly did do trips which were taking the piss with VFR rules.
You have to remember why you are going up. It,s to have fun and enjoy yourself not crap yourself from the moment the gear is off the deck to the sigh of relief when the wheels touch down again. Leave the crap wx flying to the pros and save your money for nice days when your going to enjoy yourself, life is to short to take supid risks.
MJ
IMC is a brillant get out of jail free card but it is totally useless unless you stay in practise. The 2 years is not enough you need to be doing a approach at least once every 8 weeks just to keep your hand in. Other than that you know enough to be dangerous .....
The Original Whirly
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But there are times when I have thought I didn't feel like it, couldn't face it, would rather have a beer, etc., but forced myself to make make that psychological upheaval and fly - and landed glittering with enthusiasm and pride, itching to go again tomorrow! This is what makes it such an impossible call!
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This decision was partly based on the fact that I HAD to be at my destination this weekend. I couldn't risk needing to divert and, moreover, spotted the potential to find myself attempting to battle on where I should really be looking to land somewhere.
Pen,
For me, this seals your decision, as 100% correct.
If you absolutely must be there, you have no business flying in less than ideal conditons. You could see the danger, see where it was headed, and took the opportunity to break the chain of events. Correct decision as far as I'm concerned.
dp
Looks like the agonising decisions don't stop with the IMC either!
The Original Whirly
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To be honest i think I am getting more reluctant to fly in crap wx VFR the more hours I have under my belt.
May be its because people can say less and less about my refusal the more experence I have. And more to the point I really don't give a toss any more about there opinion of me if i do refuse to fly in conditions which I ain't happy with
May be its because people can say less and less about my refusal the more experence I have. And more to the point I really don't give a toss any more about there opinion of me if i do refuse to fly in conditions which I ain't happy with
Penguina,
Just re-read your last post. Firstly, I absolutely agree with dublinpilot; you HAD to be somewhere, so don't fly...too much of a risk of get-home-itis. Secondly, you say you phoned the school; who did you speak to? In my experience, school owners, managers, people on the desk etc know nothing about weather conditions and if you should fly or not. It looks nice; they think you should fly....never mind the forecast. Someone else went up, you should fly...never mind that they have zillions of hours and you don't. Even some instructors are far too gung-ho; they may be able to fly, and even teach, but their decision making FOR YOU isn't that great; they don't know enough about people. Ultimately they're all human, with human failings. Only YOU can decide. IMHO, no-one in their right minds who didn't absolutely have to would have been flying in the gusty winds we had last Friday, let alone a newish PPL who does this for fun who absolutely had to get back.
I have only one bit of advice for you - TRUST YOURSELF!.