Bad Weather Decision?
 

Just made a decision not to fly because of weather. It may well have turned out to be a perfectly safe and enjoyable flight. Am now feeling totally dejected!

I would always rather be safe than sorry, but is there a point where over-caution (or wimpishness) prevents young and inexperienced PPLs like me from gaining experience or dealing with conditions, from building hours and from keeping as current as we'd like? And is therefore counterproductive?

:(

Probably the point where you've discussed it with an instructor, they think it's fine for you, but you still don't fly. That's possibly being too nervous - but talk to a second instructor just to be sure.

G

Hi,
You said it best ie 'better to be safe than sorry...'
However, if others (esp. instructors) have been flying before your flight and have just landed -always good to ask them what they thought of the weather.

Last nav trip I took, I was concerned about the winds being 23 kts and almost at 90 degrees to the track/heading. Spoke to an instructor before leaving, who said it would be bumpy but that I should be ok.

...Turns out when I got up there the winds had almost totally dropped.

I still do get some agnst before leaving if the weather is not as nice as I would like but oh well... I figure, once airborne, if I dont like it, I'll return to the circuit and land.

Regards.

Has.

If you don't have an IMC you need a high level of confidence that you'll have a good horizon and that the cloud base will give you adequate terrain clearance.

In the UK that can stop you any time.

Even with an IMC unless your destination has instrument approach facilities you can still get stuck.

I recently ended with an extra night in Alderney, because I believed getting into Kemble was too risky notwithstanding a Saratoga with all the Nav kit you could wish for and a current IMC!

Wise decision

Don't feel dejected! Down over the Cotswolds its 30 gusting 40 kts and where I am, we keep getting squalls going through heading east at high speed with CB activity thrown in.

Penguina, up here in the UK you have to be philosophical where the weather's concerned. Look on the bright side; you haven't spent the money today, so you still have it to fly with when the weather's much nicer:) :ok:

I didn't fly today either gusty winds prob 30 TSRA and CBs keeps me on the ground!! Cowards live longer!!

I'd rather be on the ground wishing I was flying than flying and wishing I was on the ground!!

:cool:

Not flying today is a good decision, its very blustery here in south Essex. But you really do need to fly in conditions that are not 100% perfect, otherwise you will never fly at all.

The trick is to creep up on your limits and slowly push them back. If you think 'this is getting a bit dodgy', then you know that you have reached your limit. You will probably find yourself pushing your limits without even realising that you are doing it, the more you fly, the more experience you gain.

Today, you made a good choice.

Penguina

Every private pilot should develop their own "GO, NO GO" criteria prior to any flight, this is common sense that could, and probably will one day save your life.

Don't feel like a chicken because you opted not to go flying, you made a decision based upon your feelings, experience, and the weather, I say you made a good step toward being a "OLD PILOT" versus a "Bold Pilot" (of which there are few of).

To help improve your experience try getting more dual time with an instructor or another pilot that holds instrument ratings. You can never train too much for the what if's.

Mike
NATCA FWA

Immediately after I took my GFT in October the weather turned bad - too cloudy for nav and really windy - not just Xwind, but really gusty. The instructors at my club vary from mother hen to fly in anything, so it was very hard to make a judgement. End ended up taking an FI up in the circuit on a few occasions to try to push my limits. I'm very glad I did because, although at the moment I wouldn't want to go up solo in weather like that, it did prove that if I got caught out I would be able to get back safely. I found it quite rewarding in a 13kt crosswind, gusting 30kts to do several circuits without the instructor having to step in at all.

When I first got my licence I decided that I didn't want to experience new difficult conditions for the first time on my own.
So every time there were new difficult conditions I shot off to the airfield and hired an aircraft (dual with instructor) to try flying in these conditions for the first time.
Within three months I had flown in heavy rain, snow, high gusty winds, and poor visibility, and several combinations of these.
This gave me good experience of what it was like up there, when viewed from down here. Not a perfect guide, but nevertheless a great help and benefit.
If the weather is iffy, I spend a good deal of time thinking all the options through, and make sure I have enough fuel and daylight (unless airways equiped) for all these options.

ps I have been flying today, (and almost every day this week).

The downside of not flying when you could is that you get frustrated and give up flying, and possibly that you fail to gain experience that might be useful in more critical situations (see below :)).

The downside of flying when you shouldn't is that you die.

The mere fact that you appreciate that there is a trade-off there means that you're 90% of the way to getting the risk management right.

Its better to be down here wishing you were up there, than up there wishing you were down here :D

(Believe me, its not a nice feeling being up there under those circumstances......satisfying when you make it down alive, but not nice at the time;) )

If you had been coming over our way Penguina you would not have enjoyed it at all. Loads and loads of CB dodging sharp squalls and heavy rain gusts exceeding 30 knots. Nope much better off at home PPRuNing.

Sounds like a good decision.

I binned a trip last Saturday because of some PROB30 weather that in fact never happened, and just did a little local flying instead. One thing that is essential is to hire your aeroplane from someone who doesn't get all upset when you cancel - you never want to feel pressured into flying when you're not sure you like the look of it.

Oh, and when you offer to take someone else flying, always tell your passengers that it's at best 50-50 that you'll get off the ground in England in summertime, that way you won't feel pressured by the passengers feeling disappointed.

I Keep quoting the sign I saw at Thruxton:

To learn HOW to fly takes around 45 hours.
To learn WHEN to fly takes a lifetime.

I cancelled today as well. My gut feeling was definitely "No!" and I've learned to trust those feelings. The forecast agreed, and so did reality in the end - very nasty gusty winds. I could probably have handled them, but "probably" isn't enough, and anyway, I do this for fun.

But I know just how you feel, Penguina; nothing worse than that feeling of "maybe I could have flown", at the time of day when you know you should have had the nice "having flown" feeling. :(

Penguina,

I am like you. Very cautious indeed. I will quite happily fly with lots cloud and 8k viz, with a decent x-wind, etc, etc. But not when the base is 2000' or lower ('cept in circuit) or any adverse effects present within 100 miles!

I try to not ask anybody what they think of the conditions. I have noticed suprise from some when I say "not going" and I feel a little silly too when it turns out fine. Then one day when at the club I said "its flyable" one of the instructors asked to come as he was bored. Half way around the circuit the vis reduced to about <1km and I lost sight of the runway, it was IMC by any other name. Was I glad to have him with me! I vaguely noticed a dark line, thinking this was the runway I lined up on it. My passenger noticed the actual runway was to the left - I lined up on a hedge!

I am convinced he knew what was in store but was too decent and wise to question my decision directly. One of my more startling learning moments!

I think stick to your guns and fly only when you feel is comfortable. Ignore this dodging black cloud derring-do and cock a snoot at suggestions of sub standard training

:ok:

I'm also careful with respect to weather, but you will find yourself gradually becoming a little more bold as you gain more experience.

I shouldn't worry about it.

QDM

Penguina

The answer to your dilema would have been to sheel out a few extra quid and take an instructor along.

I trained in mostly terrible weather, as my instructor thought I would probably fly in it anyway. He was partially right, but I still bottle out when I know mates are flying, just because it doesn't "feel" like it will be safe when I'm standing outside the hangar.

bs

There is another way of looking at this.

Flying in good weather is idyllic. Flying in poor vis, high winds, rain etc is actually bloody miserable. For most of us it really isn't enjoyable.

We pay a small fortune to fly. Most of us do it for fun. So why, just why, go flying in weather where you won't enjoy it? What is the point?

Yes, there may be people who'll go. They may think you're a wimp. But who the hell cares? What do you have to prove?

Of course, there will be those who say you should be stretching yourself. Up to a point, yes. If you're terrified of a single cloud or one degree of crooswind, that's a little extreme. But if you don't ever want to learn to fly in strong winds and rain, then why do it? It's not compulsory. It's no crime to be a fair weather pilot.

To repeat, we do this for FUN. So why do it if it isn't fun?

You're answering a slightly different question -- and don't get me wrong, it's an answer worth giving. A much underrated and perfectly valid reason for cancelling a flight is "I just don't feel like facing that particular challenge today". When people make fatal mistakes in aircraft, it's often because they hadn't fully committed the time and mental effort required to get it right on the day.

The issue for Penguina seemed to be more about not knowing what the weather would be like. If you only fly in perfect conditions, you'll never learn where the line is between fun and misery.

I was rather struck by one of HWD's comments:

What's an "adverse effect"? Do you mean you don't fly if there's a thunderstorm within 100 miles? Why not? If you can see convection, you don't have to fly into it. But if you abort a flight every time there's a PROB30 TEMPO SHRA on the forecast, you'll never find that out. The x-wind would worry me much more, because at some point you know you're going to have to deal with it.