What's an "adverse effect"? Do you mean you don't fly if there's a thunderstorm within 100 miles? Why not? If you can see convection, you don't have to fly into it. But if you abort a flight every time there's a PROB30 TEMPO SHRA on the forecast, you'll never find that out. The x-wind would worry me much more, because at some point you know you're going to have to deal with it.
Don't take 100 miles too literally, I was trying to make a point
but if I couldn't fully comprehend the siutation then it may not be a bad idea. We may have to beg to differ a little. X-winds are pretty frequent and if I didn't like those then my flying time would be limited. They are also a known quantity and pretty easy to deal with. TS on the other hand are not. You may see the convection in the distance, but as I have read of what has happened to many others in the past and using my new fangled met knowledge, new CBs can develop around you quite quickly, then it may well be land away and ruin your day or curtains.
Like every other human, my acceptable level of risk changes depending on how badly I need to fly. Thus far I have never had to fly. I hope when I do, I stay level headed.
BTW, I decided not to fly today (Sat) too. Not uniquely dangerous but: EGLF 030910Z 031019 25015KT 9999 SCT025 TEMPO 1019 25018G28KT 8000 SHRA PROB30 TEMPO 1019 4000 +SHRA BKN025CB
Cloud base is marginal, G28 is going to happen at some point. PROB30 is unlikely, but if it does then am certain I will be in trouble. I can still hear the odd SEP overhead my house, definately a case of wish I was up there! If that wind passes then I may pop-up for circuits.