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Weather and Safety

Old 27th Apr 2010, 14:34
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Weather and Safety

As someone with an admittedly unhealthy fear of flying, I have a habit of checking the satellite weather maps of the routes of any upcoming flights I might have. I'm wondering how strong the correlation is between storms and turbulence and safety in general. For instance, next week I'll be flying from Dubai to Singapore, and this satellite photo has me a bit concerned:



Should one expect a turbulent flight when flying through such weather systems? And what impact do such storms have on overall safety?

Thanks in advance for any replies. The professionalism and knowledge displayed by many on this board are a source of great reassurance.
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Old 27th Apr 2010, 15:38
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The High Level SIGWX Charts located on the NOAA website give a good indication of where the turbulence will be. Unfortunately their coverage of South Asia isn't great.

For upper air turbulence on the NOAA charts look for red fluffy symbols with a note like "ISOL EMBD CB 500 XXX" which means "isolated embedded cumulonimbus tops to 50,000 - (bases below 20,000)". Flying a wide berth around CBs is always recommended.

The other thing to look for is turbulence in the vicinity of jetstreams (green lines) - look at the yellow dashed areas...then look for the note something like "420/320" pointing to the area. That means turbulence between 42,000 and 32,000. Now look at the small upward pointing arrow above the note. 1 arrow = moderate turbulence...2 arrows = severe turbulence. Don't worry the plane will handle both kinds but the ride will be noticeable and uncomfortable. Chances of injury from being tossed about inside the fuselage increase with severity so best to avoid turbulence in possible.

Last, look at the white boxed number that contains a 3 digit number... that is the level of the tropopause. It's best to fly above or below the trop to avoid the shear there. If you fly right at the trop you'll likely get a persistent bad ride, light to moderate turbulence.

Have fun with the charts.

NOAA high level sigwx charts
 
Old 27th Apr 2010, 16:03
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Sroggins I have a fear of lightning strikes even though I have had many as CC and the plane has not plummeted to the ground!!! I know how you must feel. Fears are very real to the individual however irrational they may be to others.

I'm not a Pilot so I have no idea of the significance of the map posted in terms of weather implications, turbulence or it's impact on safety at this time. I'm sure my Pilot colleagues will comment in due course on this.

What I can say to you, based on my own mob's operation, is that no Pilot would knowingly take off into a massive weather system that could compromise safety. Please be reassured on this as I'm sure this would apply to all operators

They will however note any lesser weather systems in the briefing.....their's and ours. We are told if turbulence is likely to be a problem and when the seatbelt signs are likely to be switched on. I also know they will try and get ATC clearance to avoid such systems. However even if they skirt around such systems the pax may well experience turbulence and be strapped in.

IMHO and experience the only safety problems at this time come from the pax themselves.......those who think the seatbelt signs and PA's don't apply to them and ignore them

You are as safe as the instructions given to you by the operating crew in turbulent conditions. An aircraft can withstand an awful lot, pax are a little more fragile. So when you see the muppet that continuously ignores the seatbelt sign which is an instruction from the Captain and the CC who then try to enforce this exert a little peer pressure....

It may do some good and will make you feel better I'm sure
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Old 27th Apr 2010, 17:28
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lowcostdolly: Thanks for the comments and encouragement. I always appreciate hearing anecdotal evidence regarding the strength of planes; lightening strikes are pretty terrifying.

Wxgeek: Thanks for the detailed information and link - truly fascinating stuff. Certainly one of the keys to overcoming any fear is knowledge, and indeed it is reassuring to see such detailed information so readily available.Unfortunately the bulk of my upcoming flightpath falls in one of the few blank spots of their coverage. I do have some questions about this particular chart:



There appears to be a huge CB cloud lingering just above Singapore, with a top at 54,000 feet. Would any planes landing in/taking off from Singapore therefore be required to fly directly through that CB? There appear to be CBs throughout the entire area; surely it wouldn't be possible to fly around/under all of them.

One of the reasons I ask has to do with the AF447 crash from last summer. I often hear it said that turbulence can't bring down a plane, but it seems that this is precisely what happened in this case. Granted there were other contributing factors, but essentially the plane was brought down because of severe turbulence inside a CB. So in cases where it's not possible to fly around a CB (as it appears to be around Singapore at the moment), how safe is it to fly through it?

Thanks again.
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Old 27th Apr 2010, 17:46
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The route you are taking takes you through the Tropical Convergence Zone. Different air masses bumping into each other. Last week a number of pax were injured on a flight from Dubai to Goa.

Normally, your driver will not deliberately fly through severe turbulence but it is out there and is sometimes unavoidable.

Take the standard advice and keep your belt fastened. Should be enough.
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Old 27th Apr 2010, 18:31
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There appears to be a huge CB cloud lingering just above Singapore, with a top at 54,000 feet. Would any planes landing in/taking off from Singapore therefore be required to fly directly through that CB? There appear to be CBs throughout the entire area; surely it wouldn't be possible to fly around/under all of them.

The key word to focus on is "ISOL CB" meaning "isolated cumulonimbus". This is all you can expect from a Sigwx chart as the scale is too large to get a good picture as to what is happening at an individual airport. If the CBs are indeed isolated the aircraft should be able to navigate around them using a combination of weather radar and possibly ATC vectors.

If you are interested in looking at individual airport weather look here.

Use the METAR/TAF Request form. If you are traveling from Dubai (OMDB) to Singapore (WSSS), type those stations into the form. If you want a translated plain english version of the aviation weather report/forecast select that feature.

Here is the untranslated version I've pulled up:

OMDB 271650Z 2718/2824 20005KT CAVOK
BECMG 2806/2808 30013KT
BECMG 2816/2818 16005KT

WSSS 271700Z 2718/2824 VRB05KT 9999 FEW018CB SCT020
TEMPO 2803/2809 4000 TSRA SCT010CB BKN015

Looking at the Singapore forecast "TEMPO 2803/2809 4000 TSRA SCT010CB" which means between 03UTC and 09UTC temporary condition 4000 metres visibility thundershowers/rain scattered ceiling 1000 ft CBs...

You shouldn't have a problem getting into this airport.

Cheers and good luck
 
Old 27th Apr 2010, 21:26
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Typically with a forecast like this, the captain would opt to carry some holding fuel - this is in addition to the planned diversion fuel to a suitable alternate and the contingency and final reserve fuel all of which add a decent buffer. The flight crew will have had a look at the airports nearby to ascertain which airfields are likely to be storm free for the period around your expected approach and added fuel to be able to divert as necessary.

So you need to know that with few CB's it's not automatically implied that there are thunderstorms over the airfield - it's just possible that thunderstorms may occur from those clouds - and by looking at weather radar it's possible to see whether there are storms and areas of heavy turbulence in the area. The idea would be to fly towards the airport carrying all of this extra fuel, listen to the actual conditions reported by the airfield as you get closer and decide to try an approach if suitable. You'd then keep an eye on the weather radar, and if there was a hint of a thunderstorm on your final approach route then you'd discontinue the approach, knowing that you can hold off for maybe 20 mins and await better conditions, and if there's still no improvement, you can divert to your airfield of choice, knowing that if even this doesn't work out as planned, that you have a final reserve to fall back on. There are a lot of buffers in the system which generally ensure that it's a calm decision making process, and the core driver is an aim not to fly an approach through the dangerous bit of a storm cell.
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Old 27th Apr 2010, 21:51
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Isolated means that in up to 1/8 of the area encompassed by the wavy line there are embedded cb clouds. If it says OCNL it is occasional and means that from an eighth to one half of the area can be cb. FREQ is from a half up to complete coverage of the area. So isolated is the very lowest amount that can be specified.
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Old 28th Apr 2010, 11:05
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Thanks for all the replies. This thread has been extremely informative for me.

The general consensus seems to be that a bit of turbulence is inevitable on any flight through cloud formations like the ones above. However, with a skilled pilot and a certain degree of luck, the worst weather-related turbulence can be avoided. In general, wearing a seatbelt is enough to protect yourself from any potential dangers of flying through stormy weather.

Would I be correct in thinking, however, that there is weather bad enough to take down a plane without any other contributing factors? Aside from hurricanes/cyclones/tornadoes of course.
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Old 28th Apr 2010, 12:12
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Hi Scroggins

Would I be correct in thinking, however, that there is weather bad enough to take down a plane without any other contributing factors? Aside from hurricanes/cyclones/tornadoes of course.
A meteorite could take down an aircraft without any other contributing factors.

The important thing is how probable and the probability of a meteorite strike is extremely low, as is weather taking an aircraft down.
 
Old 28th Apr 2010, 13:51
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Final 3 Greens: Point taken. I guess the worst thing that might plausibly happen is an extremely unpleasant (and undoubtedly terrifying) period of severe turbulence.

Actually, my fear of flying is largely rooted in a flight I took from Taipei to LA with China Airlines several years ago. Less than halfway across the Pacific (we were flying basically straight across, rather than arcing towards Alaska as many trans-Pacific flights seem to do), we encountered some rather heavy turbulence which continued fairly steadily for several hours. Overhead compartments opened during a few particularly severe bumps.

The screens were displaying the standard information about distance to destination, altitude, speed etc... It was also showing the wind shear, which at times exceeded 500k/h.

I used to fly with China Airlines quite often, and a common trend on virtually all of their flights was significant and sustained turbulence. Perhaps their pilots aren't trained as adequately or in the same method as pilots for other airlines?
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Old 29th Apr 2010, 01:01
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I used to fly with China Airlines quite often, and a common trend on virtually all of their flights was significant and sustained turbulence. Perhaps their pilots aren't trained as adequately or in the same method as pilots for other airlines?

I've never flown CA so I don't know how they operate but I know out of Japan to North America you can get stuck at a unfavourable altitude and bump all the way across the Pacific. If there is an aircraft above you and one below you on your track, you getting bumped around and there is not much you can do about it, if for example your trying to get above or below the trop or out of the jetstream.

Sometimes you can negotiate an altitude change by talking to aircraft around you and coordinating an altitude change and sometimes not.

I do find that some crews are less likely to 'negotiate' on 123.45
 
Old 29th Apr 2010, 03:04
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Scroggins from Riyadh

Your apprehension of flying is very common many people feel that way. The vast array of information available now is phenomenal.

There are many things to consider. For example your flight crew has a vested interest in arriving safely. Secondly they are trained, equipped and experienced and have made this journey dozens or even hundreds of times. What you will encounter in flight is routine to them. The commander of your widebody jet has likely been in the industry 30 years.

Now let’s briefly discuss the satellite photo you linked to. Your pilots and the dispatchers working your flight have all the tools you have and more. Additionally they have the experience of working this same flight, in your case from Dubai to Singapore, many times. For them this flight is routine.

Consider that the cloud and weather formations you are looking at are normal daily patterns of moisture, high and low pressure systems and are an hourly occurrence every single day on a planetary scale. The individual weather systems are not hidden assassins lurking in the dark to do you great harm. Your Dubai-Singapore flight is a relatively long journey covering a significant number of miles. As you fly that far you will encounter differing weather patterns. My main point here is the red dots you are looking at on the screen shot you linked to are not muggers intent on doing you bodily harm, they are normal everyday occurrences as viewed from your lofty space view.

Your airline likely operates the latest Airbus A-380s and Boeing 777, with vastly experienced crews. Should the need arise your crew has the ability to fly over the top of or go around any areas of weather they choose to avoid. They are equipped and experienced using the latest navigation, communication and weather devices available today. The most likely reason to avoid an area of weather is passenger comfort as the modern jetliner is capable of enduring much more of a rough ride than any of the passengers want to go through. In other words your jet is a tough piece of machinery and able to protect you. With good reason you may put your trust in your crew and their airliner.

Looking at the satellite view again you are limited by not knowing the vertical extent, how high the clouds reach, of the weather depicted. Your flight’s dispatcher and pilots will have that information and will plan their flight accordingly.

As far as correlating turbulent flight and flying through “weather systems” that depends. One can fly through extensive stratus clouds and have a very smooth ride. Or one can fly through few cumulus clouds and experience a lot of turbulence. And then there is “CAT” (Clear Air Turbulence) which can be very rough and would be virtually invisible to the satellite picture. So, yes, sometimes there is a correlation between many clouds and a bumpy flight. Just because you do not see little white or red concentrations does not guarantee a perfectly smooth ride.

By all means continue to ask questions and do your own research. There are many online courses offered to assist those who are apprehensive about flying. I do not teach them myself, but if you want more information PM me and I will recommend one, or just do a search on “fear of flying +courses”.

In summary red dots on a TV or computer screen are not assassins looking to do you great harm. Continue to educate yourself with the vast resources available online. Try to get a 3 dimensional understanding of what you are looking at. Realize your jet, crew and the airline standing behind them on your flight all exist to ensure your safe passage. They all have a huge vested interest in your arriving safely and eager to travel with them again!

Thank you for continuing to purchase those tickets thus enabling us to continue to do the job most of us love.

Respectfully,

Northbeach

Last edited by Northbeach; 29th Apr 2010 at 03:20.
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Old 29th Apr 2010, 06:50
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Thanks Northbeach. Of course it's important to keep it all in perspective. My flight is on a Boeing 777-300ER with Emirates, so I realize there is good reason to trust the plane and crew.

Thanks again for all the replies.
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Old 29th Apr 2010, 07:18
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Northbeach

Very informative post. Thank you.

I do not teach them myself
You should.
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Old 29th Apr 2010, 09:30
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scroggins I've been paxing for 44 years. The very worst turbulence was in 1971 because a Viscount (old quad turboprop) could not get above a tropical storm in Southern Africa. That was it. Some bumping around but nothing traumatic and never a lightning strike, despite too many flights the length of Africa - where there are big clouds all year round in the tropics.

Northbeach You da maaan
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Old 29th Apr 2010, 21:49
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Scroggins in Riyadh part 2.

There are a few more items I would like to address for you to consider; beginning with your expectations. Your journey from Dubai to Singapore, just a few generations ago, would likely be once in a lifetime event and it would be fraught with danger. In fact your chances of not arriving safely, say 200 years ago, would be quite high. Today tens of thousands of people are aloft around the globe at any given moment; the vast majority of them year in and year out arrive on time and in complete safety. Frankly I worry about my safety much more driving to and from the airport than I ever do about the flight itself.

The environment you are flying through at altitude is utterly inhospitable. At 10,000 meters and higher, where you are flying, the outside temperature ranges between 50-60 C below zero. On the ground a wind of 120 Km/hr is considered a “hurricane force wind”. Winds of twice that strength are not uncommon at altitude. Few if any ground based structures would remain standing in sustained 250 Km/hr winds. Massive weather systems, on a planetary scale mind you, containing differential pressure, temperature and moisture driven by strong winds run into each other causing zones of turbulence. I am not at all criticizing your apprehension, or minimizing your fear, but if you have the expectation of a completely smooth ride for the entire duration you will be disappointed. Taking a jet that distance across the globe is not the same as taking a brand new S-Class Mercedes Benz across a flat parking lot. You can do yourself a favor by fortifying yourself with the assurance that you will encounter some less than perfectly smooth air, and that encounter is completely normal and to be expected. As somebody else mentioned having your seat belt fastened and remaining seated will go a long way towards your personal safety and comfort.

Not all aircrews, airlines and airplanes are the same. Stick with those carriers that invest in the best available equipment, maintain that equipment well, hire the best crews and have the best safety records. You mentioned The Emirates as being your carrier of choice. A close friend of mine was hired by that carrier several years ago. If he is any indication of the quality of pilot employed by the airline, then you are in very good hands indeed. I would say that your choice of flying Emirates is a good one.

Having said all of that occasionally accidents such as Air France 447 happen. I am fairly certain that eventually we will know about the cause(s). But again, statistically you are much safer in your 777 enroute to Singapore than you are on the public highway. I don’t fear lightning strikes; I have been hit more than once. Modern jets are designed to withstand lightning strikes. I would not go seeking a lighting bolt, but they do not worry me. If I am not worried, you shouldn’t be either.

And if you find yourself not getting any relief and the apprehension getting worse then seek out a well recommended “fear of flying” course. There is nothing wrong in getting help or signing up for some training. That’s what I do whenever I have a question or have to do something I have no previous background in.

Pleasant journeys.

Northbeach

Last edited by Northbeach; 30th Apr 2010 at 02:46.
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Old 29th Apr 2010, 23:33
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One of the reasons I ask has to do with the AF447 crash from last summer. I often hear it said that turbulence can't bring down a plane, but it seems that this is precisely what happened in this case.
Just an observation on your comment. We don't yet have flight data or cockpit voice recorders, much less a final accident investigation report, so any opinions on what caused this crash are just that – opinions. My opinion, for what it's worth, is that most aircraft accidents are not caused by a single event, but by a chain of errors and/or failures, and that AF447 will in time prove to be no different. I would be very, very surprised if weather alone caused that crash. Most likely, the weather conditions were – at worst – a factor.

As professional pilots we do our best to avoid weather and turbulence, but as Northbeach describes so well, we fly at high speeds through a dynamic environment, and it is unrealistic to expect a magic carpet ride at all times. Be assured, however, that we have a vested interest in getting you safely from A to B, as we ourselves want to get home safely, and with as little paperwork and as low a blood pressure as possible.

If you are flying on an Emirates triple, you are in very safe hands, onboard a phenomenally safe aeroplane.
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Old 1st May 2010, 01:39
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It's worth bearing in mind that Singapore *always* has lots of cloud around, and frequent thunderstorms throughout the year. Any pilot who flies into Changi with any degree of regularity will have a bucket load of experience of the weather and what to do. Looking out of the window now, it would be a good time to come in as it's quite clear this morning though!
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Old 1st May 2010, 15:38
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Northbeach: Thanks for another highly informative and deeply reassuring post. Your perspective is greatly appreciated. I probably will end up taking a fear of flying course at some point.

G SXTY: Point taken about the AF crash. I suppose it was a case of the proverbial holes in the swiss cheese just happening to line up.

Rush2112: I guess that explains why many of my landings in Singapore have been among the most turbulent. A few years ago flying from BKK to Singapore with Tiger there were genuine screams of terror on a couple of bumps - and not just from me .

Thanks again everyone. I feel much more relaxed already.
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