Cirrus down Gundaroo, 06/10/23
I wouldn’t pay too much attention to the actions of that Cirrus salesman. The accident report doesn’t show him in a good light. The pilot rated passenger said the salesman applied into spin rudder. No wonder it didn’t recover. https://www.atsb.gov.au/sites/defaul...-083_final.pdf
Naturally? Happy? You've got cousins over here, and you're going to organize a chat? Gee,bit of code talk there. I'm an Irishman, Mr. Balloon, if indeed that is your name. I understand the pathetic veiled threat in the words "...organize a chat". But, send me their phone numbers, and I'll give them a call. That'll be a start, and I will keep this board posted on how that goes. Hopefully we'll have that out of the way by noon tomorrow, BC time. Tell them Padraig will be calling.
There are posters here who know who I am. I'm on the Canadian board under the same nick as here. I'm quite familiar with Pelmet and PilotDar and BigPistonsForever, and undoubtedly others who post here. I've never heard of you before this thread. But I've seen your kind on the other board, and very rarely, on here. It speaks volumes about you that one insightful poster has volunteered that you may be principally occupied with tearing the handle off yourself, as the priests ask in the confessional in Ireland, with one hand and typing utter ****e with the other.
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I live in Vernon, British Columbia. I started flying in 1968 and flew my last flight in 2015. I am a British Columbia mountain pilot, who has also flown in the US, Ireland, England, and continental Europe. I have time on 45 different types of airplanes and helicopters while I was flying. I hold the Canadian Airline Transport License and the Commercial Helicopter pilot license, and the US Commercial pilot license. In my last bit of working life, I was flight operations manager at a commuter airline with up to 24 pilots and 14 aircraft, before taking on the GM role. I have been qualified as an expert witness in air crash investigation in the High Court in Ireland (Haughton v. Irish Aviation Authority) and as an expert in aviation careers and aviation business in the Ontario Superior Court of Justice (Adonis v. Athanasiou)
Looking forward to speaking to those cousins.
Padraig
There are posters here who know who I am. I'm on the Canadian board under the same nick as here. I'm quite familiar with Pelmet and PilotDar and BigPistonsForever, and undoubtedly others who post here. I've never heard of you before this thread. But I've seen your kind on the other board, and very rarely, on here. It speaks volumes about you that one insightful poster has volunteered that you may be principally occupied with tearing the handle off yourself, as the priests ask in the confessional in Ireland, with one hand and typing utter ****e with the other.
.
I live in Vernon, British Columbia. I started flying in 1968 and flew my last flight in 2015. I am a British Columbia mountain pilot, who has also flown in the US, Ireland, England, and continental Europe. I have time on 45 different types of airplanes and helicopters while I was flying. I hold the Canadian Airline Transport License and the Commercial Helicopter pilot license, and the US Commercial pilot license. In my last bit of working life, I was flight operations manager at a commuter airline with up to 24 pilots and 14 aircraft, before taking on the GM role. I have been qualified as an expert witness in air crash investigation in the High Court in Ireland (Haughton v. Irish Aviation Authority) and as an expert in aviation careers and aviation business in the Ontario Superior Court of Justice (Adonis v. Athanasiou)
Looking forward to speaking to those cousins.
Padraig
Are you able to get over the Salmon Arm? I only ask because my sister is visiting because of one of our cousins is sick, but she (my sister) doesn't have a car.
And enter, stage left, Lookleft whose pathological obsession with disagreeing with everything I post – whatever the subject - is such that, not only has she searched far and wide to find an example, she disagrees with something I did not say:
I'm endeavouring to work out why I'm living in your head, rent free, Lookleft. I've thought about all the ex-girlfriends, but none of them went on to be pilots. I frequently post 'likes' when you post something with which I agree, but you've never been able to bring yourself to agree with anything I've posted. Never. And it's not like my posts never attract support from anyone.
So there's something else that drives you to be focussed on and presumptively negative to everything I post. A truly fascinating case study for those who care about this stuff.
My posts in this thread are an attempt to counter the oh-so-convenient and oh-so-common reflex to blame a deceased pilot, alone, for everything.
So there's something else that drives you to be focussed on and presumptively negative to everything I post. A truly fascinating case study for those who care about this stuff.
My posts in this thread are an attempt to counter the oh-so-convenient and oh-so-common reflex to blame a deceased pilot, alone, for everything.
I do accept that the cause may be something other than pilot incapacitation. However, I will relate this incident because it does involve a rare form of temporary incapacitation, and while that was miraculously resolved with a mostly intact airplane, had it not been, the very same type of thread would have been started, if they had forums in 1983.
I lived in Prince George at the time and I was Chief Pilot and Ops Manager there at a small charter company and flight school. I also owned, through a limited company, a Cessna 310Q. It was Christmas season and my wife and I had just returned from Zihuatenejo/Ixtapa and were in Salmon Arm, where our families were both from. A couple of days after, I had to go to PG on some matter and took a brother and a friend along for what was to be a day trip.
We took off and climbed to 8500. I noticed that I had flu symptoms, not unusual for me after a commercial airline flight. Bases were sometimes below the altitude and the trip did involve some maneuvering to stay VFR and avoid having to ask for a pop up to continue. I preferred to remain VFR given the stuffed head feeling I was having. However, about 25 miles short of PG, we encountered solid cloud and virga on most headings north. I called Center, got the pop up, along with a clearance for the approach in PG. The transition altitude was 7000 there, and prior to starting descent and completely in cloud, I closed my mouth and held me nose shut and forced my ears to pop. As soon as I did that, I experienced a fairly rapid closure of my field of view to a small circle, and then nothing. The last thing I saw was the artificial horizon start to move to a bank. Before I went black, I moved the yoke to correct. I think I moved it the wrong way. I went blind, and pulled back the throttles. I'm told that it was about 10 seconds and I heard a shout from one passenger, and my sight came back in reverse order to how it went. The first thing I saw was the back seat passenger up near the roof. I began to do partial panel stuff, with the airspeed indicator already well into the yellow. The guy came off the roof and down onto the seat. I could not rely on the AH, but I did manage to level the wings with the turn coordinator. I had started the technique of pulling back on the yoke till the airspeed stopped increasing, the make the thing back to level technique. Before that happened, we plunged out of the clouds, power off but engines running, wings level, and now about 70 degrees nose down. We had pulled some serious Gs. I was worried about the structural integrity of the aircraft. I called PG tower, said I had a medical emergency and had briefly lost my sight. As we were in bare VFR, and I wasn't going to lose sight of the ground again, I began discussing a highway landing option with ATC. As soon as we started that, I looked north and saw PG airport between virga to the ground. I told tower I could proceed VFR to the airport, but maintained the emergency as I had no idea if I was going to lose sight again, and I didn't know where we were structurally.
We landed and taxied to the Esso. I was shaken. I had barely spoken a word to the passengers as they could hear the situation in their headsets. I parked and went inside. I sat down, got a strange want to sneeze feeling in my nose, and then felt my chest get wet. I put my hand under my nose and the better part of a cup of water came out of my nasal cavity. Sea water.
About three days before, I and some friends, one of which went on to become Chief Pilot of Conair,,took scuba lessons there in the bay at Zihuateno. Part of that is to stand by the sea, take your mask, fill it with sea water, clamp it to your gob, and tilt your head back, and clear the mask by blowing. People were spluttering and puking all around. I called Transport Medical and told them all this. They figured it out. I had sea water trapped in my nasal cavity from the mask bs. It remained there right up to sitting down in the Esso. When I did the ear pop thing, that pressure transmitted through the water inside and affected the optic nerve, or nerves, not sure which. That led to the blindness, and that went away when the pressure stopped.
In the blind period, I do remember envisioning us splattered all over a mountainside, and people who knew me saying "Why in hell would Paddy do that?".But, the ones who knew me best would immediately presume pilot incapacitation. There are some types of incapacitation that can have you and your aircraft gone in seconds, and unlikely to come back.
I'm not just talking out of my arse when I express the opinion this Cirrus may have gone down as a result of pilot incapacitation. I never put out a Mayday through the whole thing until the airplane was back under control. Then I did.
For young pilots reading this, this is your lesson to take away...no matter that you may believe you are certain to die in the next few seconds, never stop being a pilot, never stop flying the machine.
I lived in Prince George at the time and I was Chief Pilot and Ops Manager there at a small charter company and flight school. I also owned, through a limited company, a Cessna 310Q. It was Christmas season and my wife and I had just returned from Zihuatenejo/Ixtapa and were in Salmon Arm, where our families were both from. A couple of days after, I had to go to PG on some matter and took a brother and a friend along for what was to be a day trip.
We took off and climbed to 8500. I noticed that I had flu symptoms, not unusual for me after a commercial airline flight. Bases were sometimes below the altitude and the trip did involve some maneuvering to stay VFR and avoid having to ask for a pop up to continue. I preferred to remain VFR given the stuffed head feeling I was having. However, about 25 miles short of PG, we encountered solid cloud and virga on most headings north. I called Center, got the pop up, along with a clearance for the approach in PG. The transition altitude was 7000 there, and prior to starting descent and completely in cloud, I closed my mouth and held me nose shut and forced my ears to pop. As soon as I did that, I experienced a fairly rapid closure of my field of view to a small circle, and then nothing. The last thing I saw was the artificial horizon start to move to a bank. Before I went black, I moved the yoke to correct. I think I moved it the wrong way. I went blind, and pulled back the throttles. I'm told that it was about 10 seconds and I heard a shout from one passenger, and my sight came back in reverse order to how it went. The first thing I saw was the back seat passenger up near the roof. I began to do partial panel stuff, with the airspeed indicator already well into the yellow. The guy came off the roof and down onto the seat. I could not rely on the AH, but I did manage to level the wings with the turn coordinator. I had started the technique of pulling back on the yoke till the airspeed stopped increasing, the make the thing back to level technique. Before that happened, we plunged out of the clouds, power off but engines running, wings level, and now about 70 degrees nose down. We had pulled some serious Gs. I was worried about the structural integrity of the aircraft. I called PG tower, said I had a medical emergency and had briefly lost my sight. As we were in bare VFR, and I wasn't going to lose sight of the ground again, I began discussing a highway landing option with ATC. As soon as we started that, I looked north and saw PG airport between virga to the ground. I told tower I could proceed VFR to the airport, but maintained the emergency as I had no idea if I was going to lose sight again, and I didn't know where we were structurally.
We landed and taxied to the Esso. I was shaken. I had barely spoken a word to the passengers as they could hear the situation in their headsets. I parked and went inside. I sat down, got a strange want to sneeze feeling in my nose, and then felt my chest get wet. I put my hand under my nose and the better part of a cup of water came out of my nasal cavity. Sea water.
About three days before, I and some friends, one of which went on to become Chief Pilot of Conair,,took scuba lessons there in the bay at Zihuateno. Part of that is to stand by the sea, take your mask, fill it with sea water, clamp it to your gob, and tilt your head back, and clear the mask by blowing. People were spluttering and puking all around. I called Transport Medical and told them all this. They figured it out. I had sea water trapped in my nasal cavity from the mask bs. It remained there right up to sitting down in the Esso. When I did the ear pop thing, that pressure transmitted through the water inside and affected the optic nerve, or nerves, not sure which. That led to the blindness, and that went away when the pressure stopped.
In the blind period, I do remember envisioning us splattered all over a mountainside, and people who knew me saying "Why in hell would Paddy do that?".But, the ones who knew me best would immediately presume pilot incapacitation. There are some types of incapacitation that can have you and your aircraft gone in seconds, and unlikely to come back.
I'm not just talking out of my arse when I express the opinion this Cirrus may have gone down as a result of pilot incapacitation. I never put out a Mayday through the whole thing until the airplane was back under control. Then I did.
For young pilots reading this, this is your lesson to take away...no matter that you may believe you are certain to die in the next few seconds, never stop being a pilot, never stop flying the machine.
Excellent! We could be cousins! My father and his parents lived in Salmon Arm. The first name of one of my younger brothers is "Vernon". My first name is also that of a town in BC. My sister is in Salmon Arm now.
Are you able to get over the Salmon Arm? I only ask because my sister is visiting because of one of our cousins is sick, but she (my sister) doesn't have a car.
Are you able to get over the Salmon Arm? I only ask because my sister is visiting because of one of our cousins is sick, but she (my sister) doesn't have a car.
I do accept that the cause may be something other than pilot incapacitation.
But I do hope to meet you next time I'm in BC, because you evidently have extensive experience and would be a font of aviation wisdom.
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I know the pilot, he was experienced and current for a private pilot. He was close to getting his CPL. Always flew IFR and was looking at moving onto twins. I can’t comprehend what has gone wrong here.
Has anyone yet worked out the wind/icing etc on the day? I think the lack of constant heading is coincident with a significant drop in groundspeed through about 8000ft. Perhaps something has begun to develop from then?
Has anyone yet worked out the wind/icing etc on the day? I think the lack of constant heading is coincident with a significant drop in groundspeed through about 8000ft. Perhaps something has begun to develop from then?
That’s some very interesting stuff, FMJ.
Yet a Cirrus salesman contributed to rather than busting that myth, as a consequence of this event which resulted in this unwelcome garden ornament.
Yet a Cirrus salesman contributed to rather than busting that myth, as a consequence of this event which resulted in this unwelcome garden ornament.
However, let's go back to that incident with the salesman / pilot. Why did the Pilot fail to recover? Because, according to the passenger who was also a pilot. he applied pro spin rudder rather than anti. Had he acted correctly, he would have had no issue. However he did at least remember his hard deck and pulled before it became too late.
This had me scratching my head:Then why did you mention circumstances in which a pilot “slumps across the controls, locking them” – your words – in this thread? Surely you comprehended that the uninformed, hungry-for-facts people out there would take that as you suggesting that as an explanation for the tragedy. Surely.
As to the rest: I get it. I get it that someone needs to run interference to protect the interests of the aircraft manufacturer and distributors and maintainers, while there’s all the swirling publicity and emotion in the wake of an awful tragedy. I get it. And it may turn out that this tragedy is the consequence entirely of the pilot and not a serviceable aircraft.
My original post was in response to those who decided to leap to the keyboard and post that the cause of this tragedy was likely pilot incapacitation or – and it makes me sick to even contemplate it – to suggest some deliberate action by the pilot. Before the smoke had lifted on the site of the tragedy.
If you want to keep pressing for pilot incapacitation, that’s your choice, as is mine to continue suggesting different possibilities.
My original post was in response to those who decided to leap to the keyboard and post that the cause of this tragedy was likely pilot incapacitation or – and it makes me sick to even contemplate it – to suggest some deliberate action by the pilot. Before the smoke had lifted on the site of the tragedy.
If you want to keep pressing for pilot incapacitation, that’s your choice, as is mine to continue suggesting different possibilities.
I'm not "running interference for the manufacturer" because I know from first hand experience how good those aircraft are and what it takes to cause them to fail. I'm a fan of Cirrus aircraft - except, perhaps, for their pricing policy, especially of the costs for BRS repacking...You, on the other hand, appear to be searching for reasons which would require multiple issues happening at the same time, allowing the holes in the swiss cheese to line up whereas I am merely saying that the most likely cause is an aircraft being hand flown in moderate icing - the GAFOR said that clouds above freezing level inferred moderate icing - with an incapacitated pilot causing it to ice up and stall.
At the end of the day, the aircraft went from cruise climb to a rapid descent - within 15 seconds his vertical speed had changed from 800 feet upwards to 3700 feet downwards. The only way I have seen a light aircraft change that rapidly without a commensurate gain in airspeed is either structural failure - which has been ruled out so far - or for the plane to stall - and knowing how well these aircraft are built, I cannot believe a mechanical defect could force a plane into such a 90° nose down dive within 15 seconds. Perhaps you can think of such a failure mode - otherwise I remain by my belief that the aircraft stalled due to ice, that was the start of the incident.
The question remains: Why did the pilot not react? Why did he not recover or at least pull the chute? The most logical solution is - because he couldn't.... I find it amusing that you are opining that the plane could become inverted, that CAPS could be deployed which then became tangled with the aircraft..... Sure, this theoretically could happen but it begs the question: what caused the upset? How does an SR22, climbing along suddenly become inverted and, within 15 seconds, start descending at nearly 4000fpm??? If the accident aircraft had become inverted and wrapped up in its Chute, the pilot would have known that it's effectively game over, I would have expected him to make a call.
You just need to read the CAPS event webpage that LB posted earlier to know that statement is untrue. There's been a number of CAPS deployments in situations where they should have just landed, instead they panicked and pulled the chute. We are talking about bog standard PPLs here in most cases, not air force test pilots and ex NASA shuttle pilots. One fatal was at high speed and altitude over the rockies, with the predictable outcome that the chute separated and the aircraft speared in almost vertical. Another one had investigation results that talk about the operational limits of CAPS, maximum speeds, but, also maximum attitude, bank angle and pitching/rolling motions to prevent possible entanglement. The outcome was that the chutes effectiveness would be suspect outside of relatively slow, upright, level flight.
The fatal over the rockies was IIRC, a pilot caught in icing and he deployed CAPS after exceeding more than 180KTAS - here, the pilot was nowhere near this sort of airspeed. Concerning operational limits of CAPS, the question is: how does a plane flown by a competent and current IFR rated pilot suddenly experience an upset which, if CAPS was deployed, would cause entanglement around the aircraft? How does the plane invert itself?
I remain by my belief that the aircraft stalled due to ice, that was the start of the incident.
Why did the pilot not react?
Why did he not recover or at least pull the chute?
I’ll now wait for the report of the poor bastards who have to sift through the aftermath of this tragedy to try work out what actually happened. I’ll standby for you to say: “Told you so” when their report backs your theory.
Firstly, I said that when stalling straight and level, the Cirrus will not drop a wing. That instance, the pilot was banking at 25°, performing the fabled base to final turn with associated stall / spin. Most planes would drop a wing and enter a spin if the plane is not co-ordinated. However it might interest you to note that EASA considers the SR 20 / 22 aircraft to be one of the few truly spin resistant aircraft to have been certified - not spin immune, but spin resistant.
However, let's go back to that incident with the salesman / pilot. Why did the Pilot fail to recover? Because, according to the passenger who was also a pilot. he applied pro spin rudder rather than anti. Had he acted correctly, he would have had no issue. However he did at least remember his hard deck and pulled before it became too late.
You might recall your exact words were "How does sudden pilot incapacitation result in an aircraft plummeting to the ground?" You didn't refer to a Cirrus but to an aircraft hence I answered. Go check what you wrote and you will see you did NOT specify a Cirrus plummeting to the ground otherwise I would not have made such a suggestion. Please check your original post.
Firstly,. I refuse to accept it was deliberate action, let me get that part out of the way. However history shows that Cirrus don't typically have wing spar issues like certain other brands therefore a catastrophic failure in the absence of CBs is unlikely. Their BRS system has been proven as reliable over the decades, the two issues you refer to were caused after the change to electronic ignition which was then rectified by an SB. This aircraft would have had its chute repacked last year so was not susceptible to spurious ignition. I therefore rule out any uncommanded activation or inability to pull - unless the owner flew with the safety pin still in the handle - some do, you know.....
I'm not "running interference for the manufacturer" because I know from first hand experience how good those aircraft are and what it takes to cause them to fail. I'm a fan of Cirrus aircraft - except, perhaps, for their pricing policy, especially of the costs for BRS repacking...You, on the other hand, appear to be searching for reasons which would require multiple issues happening at the same time, allowing the holes in the swiss cheese to line up whereas I am merely saying that the most likely cause is an aircraft being hand flown in moderate icing - the GAFOR said that clouds above freezing level inferred moderate icing - with an incapacitated pilot causing it to ice up and stall.
At the end of the day, the aircraft went from cruise climb to a rapid descent - within 15 seconds his vertical speed had changed from 800 feet upwards to 3700 feet downwards. The only way I have seen a light aircraft change that rapidly without a commensurate gain in airspeed is either structural failure - which has been ruled out so far - or for the plane to stall - and knowing how well these aircraft are built, I cannot believe a mechanical defect could force a plane into such a 90° nose down dive within 15 seconds. Perhaps you can think of such a failure mode - otherwise I remain by my belief that the aircraft stalled due to ice, that was the start of the incident.
The question remains: Why did the pilot not react? Why did he not recover or at least pull the chute? The most logical solution is - because he couldn't.... I find it amusing that you are opining that the plane could become inverted, that CAPS could be deployed which then became tangled with the aircraft..... Sure, this theoretically could happen but it begs the question: what caused the upset? How does an SR22, climbing along suddenly become inverted and, within 15 seconds, start descending at nearly 4000fpm??? If the accident aircraft had become inverted and wrapped up in its Chute, the pilot would have known that it's effectively game over, I would have expected him to make a call.
Historically speaking, Cirrus had a worse fatality rate than similar aircraft so COPA initiated a "pull early, pull often" mantra - which was basically to tell them: You have the chute, use it. Ridicule came because pilots were accused of pulling when they flew a tank ran empty rather than trouble shooting the issue within the time (altitude) available to them. However, typically the training at CPPPs is, if you have an issue in cruise at, say, 8000 feet, to first trim to maintain airspeed, point yourself towards the nearest airfield / suitable landing spot then trouble shoot the issue whilst remaining aware of the lowest deployment altitude. If a landing is not 100% assured when a few hundred feet above your hard deck, pull CAPS.
The fatal over the rockies was IIRC, a pilot caught in icing and he deployed CAPS after exceeding more than 180KTAS - here, the pilot was nowhere near this sort of airspeed. Concerning operational limits of CAPS, the question is: how does a plane flown by a competent and current IFR rated pilot suddenly experience an upset which, if CAPS was deployed, would cause entanglement around the aircraft? How does the plane invert itself?
However, let's go back to that incident with the salesman / pilot. Why did the Pilot fail to recover? Because, according to the passenger who was also a pilot. he applied pro spin rudder rather than anti. Had he acted correctly, he would have had no issue. However he did at least remember his hard deck and pulled before it became too late.
You might recall your exact words were "How does sudden pilot incapacitation result in an aircraft plummeting to the ground?" You didn't refer to a Cirrus but to an aircraft hence I answered. Go check what you wrote and you will see you did NOT specify a Cirrus plummeting to the ground otherwise I would not have made such a suggestion. Please check your original post.
Firstly,. I refuse to accept it was deliberate action, let me get that part out of the way. However history shows that Cirrus don't typically have wing spar issues like certain other brands therefore a catastrophic failure in the absence of CBs is unlikely. Their BRS system has been proven as reliable over the decades, the two issues you refer to were caused after the change to electronic ignition which was then rectified by an SB. This aircraft would have had its chute repacked last year so was not susceptible to spurious ignition. I therefore rule out any uncommanded activation or inability to pull - unless the owner flew with the safety pin still in the handle - some do, you know.....
I'm not "running interference for the manufacturer" because I know from first hand experience how good those aircraft are and what it takes to cause them to fail. I'm a fan of Cirrus aircraft - except, perhaps, for their pricing policy, especially of the costs for BRS repacking...You, on the other hand, appear to be searching for reasons which would require multiple issues happening at the same time, allowing the holes in the swiss cheese to line up whereas I am merely saying that the most likely cause is an aircraft being hand flown in moderate icing - the GAFOR said that clouds above freezing level inferred moderate icing - with an incapacitated pilot causing it to ice up and stall.
At the end of the day, the aircraft went from cruise climb to a rapid descent - within 15 seconds his vertical speed had changed from 800 feet upwards to 3700 feet downwards. The only way I have seen a light aircraft change that rapidly without a commensurate gain in airspeed is either structural failure - which has been ruled out so far - or for the plane to stall - and knowing how well these aircraft are built, I cannot believe a mechanical defect could force a plane into such a 90° nose down dive within 15 seconds. Perhaps you can think of such a failure mode - otherwise I remain by my belief that the aircraft stalled due to ice, that was the start of the incident.
The question remains: Why did the pilot not react? Why did he not recover or at least pull the chute? The most logical solution is - because he couldn't.... I find it amusing that you are opining that the plane could become inverted, that CAPS could be deployed which then became tangled with the aircraft..... Sure, this theoretically could happen but it begs the question: what caused the upset? How does an SR22, climbing along suddenly become inverted and, within 15 seconds, start descending at nearly 4000fpm??? If the accident aircraft had become inverted and wrapped up in its Chute, the pilot would have known that it's effectively game over, I would have expected him to make a call.
Historically speaking, Cirrus had a worse fatality rate than similar aircraft so COPA initiated a "pull early, pull often" mantra - which was basically to tell them: You have the chute, use it. Ridicule came because pilots were accused of pulling when they flew a tank ran empty rather than trouble shooting the issue within the time (altitude) available to them. However, typically the training at CPPPs is, if you have an issue in cruise at, say, 8000 feet, to first trim to maintain airspeed, point yourself towards the nearest airfield / suitable landing spot then trouble shoot the issue whilst remaining aware of the lowest deployment altitude. If a landing is not 100% assured when a few hundred feet above your hard deck, pull CAPS.
The fatal over the rockies was IIRC, a pilot caught in icing and he deployed CAPS after exceeding more than 180KTAS - here, the pilot was nowhere near this sort of airspeed. Concerning operational limits of CAPS, the question is: how does a plane flown by a competent and current IFR rated pilot suddenly experience an upset which, if CAPS was deployed, would cause entanglement around the aircraft? How does the plane invert itself?
There is nothing ruling out mechanical failure at this point, just because the tail/wings are still attached does not rule out control failure, or structure deformation where it was all remains attached.
There is nothing ruling out chute malfinction.
There is nothing ruling out incapacitation.
There is nothing presently ruling out ice, stall, spin.
However as stated before the profile does not realy fit with stall/spin due the speeds involved as discussed eatlier, neither does it fit with an incapacitated pilot that well for similar reasoning. It could still be either as we just don't know anything except the profile.
We may get a definitive answer on the pilot incapacitation aspect though.
Last edited by 43Inches; 8th Oct 2023 at 22:39.
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I frequently post 'likes' when you post something with which I agree, but you've never been able to bring yourself to agree with anything I've posted. Never. And it's not like my posts never attract support from anyone.
Pilot error is blaming the pilot, incapacitation is not and from personal experience it is easier for the family to accept that a medical event occurred rather than a piloting mistake was made.
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Quote:
I remain by my belief that the aircraft stalled due to ice, that was the start of the incident.
Yes you did say that. However, you said that you couldn't accept speculation which put the entire blame on the pilot yet in my eyes, a stall and subsequent spin usually ARE typically caused by pilot error..... except with severe icing; here, any pilot aware of the danger would typically be looking for a way out - higher or lower - and whilst on an IFR flight plan, he's not going to depart from his assigned altitude without clearance. Maybe the pilot thought: at 10000 feet he would be on top and could get the ice burnt off but as soon as he's starting to descend due to icing, I can pretty much guarantee he'd be calling up the controllers - this has happened with multiple aircraft suffering icing, they didn't stay silent and accept their fates....
At the same time, I wouldn't blame a pilot who became incapacitated due to an unknown medical condition as being guilty of pilot error because, after all, none of us know when our time has come. It's not a crime to become involuntarily incapacitated, it's not as if the pilot said "yes please, I want a massive stroke / heart attack right now...." If it happens, it happens - why do you believe we mustn't consider such issues as most likely but rather want to suggest BRS malfunction or some other mechanical reason for the accident?
Quote:
Why did the pilot not react?
The fact that the aircraft departed controlled flight so abruptly would indicate otherwise.... from 800fpm climb to 3700feet descent rate within 15 seconds is a pretty rapid change, wouldn't you say? The descent rate then only increased as the ground speed decreased. My first thoughts were that the plane was descending in a flat spin but that would mean the aircraft would have had to have stalled extremely tail heavy, beyond its aft CG limits - however with 3 small children aboard, I think we can safely rule that out....
Quote:
Why did he not recover or at least pull the chute?
Again, the fact that the aircraft descended so rapidly and crashed whereas BRS are rightly proud of their records for deployments within the recommended flight envelope would indicate that he did neither.....the plane was already dropping like a stone, just 15 seconds after the last datapoint showing a cruise climb was transmitted. What "recovery actions" would cause a plane in a cruise climb suddenly descend at a terrifying rate, so quickly? If the Chute was the cause of the issue, why was it deployed in the first instance? If it deployed accidentally, they would have been within normal operating parameters, why would it have suddenly caused the plane to drop? Assuming it was pulled whilst inverted or whilst at an unusual attitude, what caused the upset in the first place?
I'm pretty sure that based on the wreckage left that they have available to investigate, they won't be able to define a clear root cause for the accident because the plane was completely destroyed and burnt - unless, of course, they find parts of it which detached in flight which would point to an in flight breakup or perhaps a video capturing it's last moments of descent.... Also, I doubt a coroner would be able to carry out an autopsy on the remains of the pilot either to identify whether he had any unknown medical conditions which could have caused his sudden incapacitation.....
But again. let's look to Occam's Razor or, if you prefer, the Swiss cheese model. What scenario needs fewest number of slices of Swiss cheese to line up for the outcome we have seen? We know the plane wasn't flying on autopilot, we know that there was moderate freezing forecasted in clouds between 5000 and 10000 feet, we know he was climbing to 10000 when the incident started. Icing was therefore likely to have been present.
I'd love for it to be the result of poor maintenance or something like that - maybe he lost an aileron, the plane then rolled inverted, the pilot then triggered caps whilst inverted which led to the chute wrapping itself around the aircraft whilst ripping off his communication antenna - you know, something like that - but that requires multiple layers of cheese to line up. How likely do you believe that scenario is?
With my scenario, all I need is the icing to be a little more severe than forecasted with the pilot unable to react, for whatever reason.....
I remain by my belief that the aircraft stalled due to ice, that was the start of the incident.
Did anyone say that’s impossible? My first post started with the words: “Perhaps severe icing, stall and spin….” I usually say nothing about the cause of accidents, but in this case I couldn’t stay silent in the face of the immediate speculation which put the entire blame on the pilot. Before the smoke had dissipated from the site of the horrific death of four souls.
Yes you did say that. However, you said that you couldn't accept speculation which put the entire blame on the pilot yet in my eyes, a stall and subsequent spin usually ARE typically caused by pilot error..... except with severe icing; here, any pilot aware of the danger would typically be looking for a way out - higher or lower - and whilst on an IFR flight plan, he's not going to depart from his assigned altitude without clearance. Maybe the pilot thought: at 10000 feet he would be on top and could get the ice burnt off but as soon as he's starting to descend due to icing, I can pretty much guarantee he'd be calling up the controllers - this has happened with multiple aircraft suffering icing, they didn't stay silent and accept their fates....
At the same time, I wouldn't blame a pilot who became incapacitated due to an unknown medical condition as being guilty of pilot error because, after all, none of us know when our time has come. It's not a crime to become involuntarily incapacitated, it's not as if the pilot said "yes please, I want a massive stroke / heart attack right now...." If it happens, it happens - why do you believe we mustn't consider such issues as most likely but rather want to suggest BRS malfunction or some other mechanical reason for the accident?
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Why did the pilot not react?
The fact that the aircraft departed controlled flight so abruptly would indicate otherwise.... from 800fpm climb to 3700feet descent rate within 15 seconds is a pretty rapid change, wouldn't you say? The descent rate then only increased as the ground speed decreased. My first thoughts were that the plane was descending in a flat spin but that would mean the aircraft would have had to have stalled extremely tail heavy, beyond its aft CG limits - however with 3 small children aboard, I think we can safely rule that out....
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Why did he not recover or at least pull the chute?
Again, the fact that the aircraft descended so rapidly and crashed whereas BRS are rightly proud of their records for deployments within the recommended flight envelope would indicate that he did neither.....the plane was already dropping like a stone, just 15 seconds after the last datapoint showing a cruise climb was transmitted. What "recovery actions" would cause a plane in a cruise climb suddenly descend at a terrifying rate, so quickly? If the Chute was the cause of the issue, why was it deployed in the first instance? If it deployed accidentally, they would have been within normal operating parameters, why would it have suddenly caused the plane to drop? Assuming it was pulled whilst inverted or whilst at an unusual attitude, what caused the upset in the first place?
I'm pretty sure that based on the wreckage left that they have available to investigate, they won't be able to define a clear root cause for the accident because the plane was completely destroyed and burnt - unless, of course, they find parts of it which detached in flight which would point to an in flight breakup or perhaps a video capturing it's last moments of descent.... Also, I doubt a coroner would be able to carry out an autopsy on the remains of the pilot either to identify whether he had any unknown medical conditions which could have caused his sudden incapacitation.....
But again. let's look to Occam's Razor or, if you prefer, the Swiss cheese model. What scenario needs fewest number of slices of Swiss cheese to line up for the outcome we have seen? We know the plane wasn't flying on autopilot, we know that there was moderate freezing forecasted in clouds between 5000 and 10000 feet, we know he was climbing to 10000 when the incident started. Icing was therefore likely to have been present.
I'd love for it to be the result of poor maintenance or something like that - maybe he lost an aileron, the plane then rolled inverted, the pilot then triggered caps whilst inverted which led to the chute wrapping itself around the aircraft whilst ripping off his communication antenna - you know, something like that - but that requires multiple layers of cheese to line up. How likely do you believe that scenario is?
With my scenario, all I need is the icing to be a little more severe than forecasted with the pilot unable to react, for whatever reason.....
But again. let's look to Occam's Razor or, if you prefer, the Swiss cheese model. What scenario needs fewest number of slices of Swiss cheese to line up for the outcome we have seen? We know the plane wasn't flying on autopilot, we know that there was moderate freezing forecasted in clouds between 5000 and 10000 feet, we know he was climbing to 10000 when the incident started. Icing was therefore likely to have been present.
At the same time, I wouldn't blame a pilot who became incapacitated due to an unknown medical condition as being guilty of pilot error because, after all, none of us know when our time has come. It's not a crime to become involuntarily incapacitated, it's not as if the pilot said "yes please, I want a massive stroke / heart attack right now...." If it happens, it happens - why do you believe we mustn't consider such issues as most likely but rather want to suggest BRS malfunction or some other mechanical reason for the accident?
I want to know the answer, no matter what it is.
I have flown in that area in conditions much worse than that indicated in aircraft much less capable than a Cirrus. Icing does not cause an alert pilot to fall out of the sky like this one did.
Pilot incapacitation has more far reaching implications than just simple pilot error. The whole AvMed premise of restricting medicals is based on the rates of accidents attributed to incapacitation, so the higher the rate, the more justification to place more restrictions and tests on pilots, which don't make flying any safer as we all know underlying conditions that tend to kill you stone dead are very hard to detect, even heart attacks occur over time. A stroke is almost impossible to predict and could be the result of you sitting watching TV too long the night before in an awkward position. And personally I don't 'want' to find an answer, I want to know the answer, no matter what it is. Whatever the truth is here will add to the learning files for all who come after, so squeezing the accident into one cause that is what everyone wants to hear is not going to help stopping it again.
It'd just be another "family of four dies wrapped around a tree" on the nightly news, an increase in the road accident statistics for the month, and that'd be the end of it.
Lead, is there any chance you are mixing alcohol with your medication? Happens to the best of us, sometimes we forget we've taken the medication.
If it turns out it was "pilot incapacitation", frankly I don't see how the same thing happening in a car travelling at 100kmh on a typical country road wouldn't end with exactly the same outcome (apart from the typical negative press coverage and CASA overreaction, that is).
It'd just be another "family of four dies wrapped around a tree" on the nightly news, an increase in the road accident statistics for the month, and that'd be the end of it.
It'd just be another "family of four dies wrapped around a tree" on the nightly news, an increase in the road accident statistics for the month, and that'd be the end of it.
Thread Starter
In an ideal world, yes, that can happen, but life doesn't always afford you that opportunity. The big one is obviously fatigue, but sudden incapacitation is often given as a cause for accidents. "Blacked out", "Medical episode", even the Waterfall prang 20 years ago didn't give the Driver the opportunity to either apply the brakes, or even remove his foot from the deadman pedal and the train rolled over killing a bunch of passengers...