Ten fatalities in 9 weeks?
To put some perspective on this, how many have died in the same period from industrial/mining accidents, car crashes, train derailments, ambulance ramping, golden staph, meningococcal, domestic violence, suicide, drug overdose, medical errors, silicosis, asbestosis, drowning, sharks and the list goes on.
All are preventable and very unfortunate, however the country does not have unlimited resources to make us 100% safe 100% of the time.
All are preventable and very unfortunate, however the country does not have unlimited resources to make us 100% safe 100% of the time.
Well, yes.
Your predilection with nailing Sunfish on anything he says is blocking your critical thinking. There were two shutdowns at two critical revenue travel periods. It is quite easy to see the affect this had on the airline. Of course there were other factors involved. But the handling of these events indirectly led to the collapse.
Your predilection with nailing Sunfish on anything he says is blocking your critical thinking. There were two shutdowns at two critical revenue travel periods. It is quite easy to see the affect this had on the airline. Of course there were other factors involved. But the handling of these events indirectly led to the collapse.
Your predilection with nailing Sunfish on anything he says is blocking your critical thinking.
Back to the thread topic, 4 of those fatalities were a result of the one accident and I am assuming DS is including the Herc accident which was 3 fatalities in a single accident so that leaves 2. If I recall correctly they were a result of a VFR into IFR accident which is entirely preventable and a recurring problem. The Herc accident was the result of high risk operations where the margins of safety are reduced during an intense bushfire season. The Mangalore accident seems to be more of a case of when rather than if given the airspace and its use for navaid training. So is the whole system failing or is it a statistical aberration? Is it possible to get the GA accident rate to zero? I don't think it is.
Data is not the solution and should not be relied upon or used as a guide to safe air navigation - don’t be disillusioned on that as it is unreliable when used in the way that you have described.
You need to use an ADSB receiver (starting at $300, such as the “Ping” unit), which will interface with OZRunways and Avplan. They are a separate 3rd party box.
Arguably if either of these aircraft had one of these with Avplan or OZRunways, they would have been able to see the other aircraft’s position.
A data based system as in 4g would not necessarily have signal and would not give the same results as the above set-up.
Do yourself a favour and protect yourself with 4G and ADSB-in as a bare minimum.
You need to use an ADSB receiver (starting at $300, such as the “Ping” unit), which will interface with OZRunways and Avplan. They are a separate 3rd party box.
Arguably if either of these aircraft had one of these with Avplan or OZRunways, they would have been able to see the other aircraft’s position.
A data based system as in 4g would not necessarily have signal and would not give the same results as the above set-up.
Do yourself a favour and protect yourself with 4G and ADSB-in as a bare minimum.
I know it would still rely in a data connection but in reality, 4G data is pretty good around most busy class G and not having to switch apps to Flight Radar 24 to get a quick glimpse of the traffic situation would be a godsend to situational awareness.
I don't see why OZRunways can't have an arrangement with something like FlightRadar24 to display their traffic as an overlay. OZRunways own traffic system is hopeless as it won't show anyone who isn't using the same app.
I know it would still rely in a data connection but in reality, 4G data is pretty good around most busy class G and not having to switch apps to Flight Radar 24 to get a quick glimpse of the traffic situation would be a godsend to situational awareness.
I know it would still rely in a data connection but in reality, 4G data is pretty good around most busy class G and not having to switch apps to Flight Radar 24 to get a quick glimpse of the traffic situation would be a godsend to situational awareness.
The pilot needs the EFB, they need a 4G iPad, a 4G connection and they need to turn on the feature in the app and actively CHOOSE to broadcast their position. Even then it may not show the correct call sign or be within range.
ADSB receivers on the other hand, are displaying in real time the ADSB location and signal direct from the other aircraft with no third parties involved.
Therefore, arguably the most cost effective and potentially safest solution based on current standards and industry situation, is for everyone to have ADSB out and an ADSB receiver.
Simply because Sunfish has a habit of hijacking threads away from operational discussions into non-operational areas because he wants everyone to think he is the smartest person in the room. I'm not a fan of Dick Smith either but the thread title was about the number of fatalities in 9 weeks which has sweet FA to do with the demise of Ansett. I could rant on at length about the issues that led to the demise of Ansett but that would just be following the white rabbit down his useless rabbit hole.
Back to the thread topic, 4 of those fatalities were a result of the one accident and I am assuming DS is including the Herc accident which was 3 fatalities in a single accident so that leaves 2. If I recall correctly they were a result of a VFR into IFR accident which is entirely preventable and a recurring problem. The Herc accident was the result of high risk operations where the margins of safety are reduced during an intense bushfire season. The Mangalore accident seems to be more of a case of when rather than if given the airspace and its use for navaid training. So is the whole system failing or is it a statistical aberration? Is it possible to get the GA accident rate to zero? I don't think it is.
Back to the thread topic, 4 of those fatalities were a result of the one accident and I am assuming DS is including the Herc accident which was 3 fatalities in a single accident so that leaves 2. If I recall correctly they were a result of a VFR into IFR accident which is entirely preventable and a recurring problem. The Herc accident was the result of high risk operations where the margins of safety are reduced during an intense bushfire season. The Mangalore accident seems to be more of a case of when rather than if given the airspace and its use for navaid training. So is the whole system failing or is it a statistical aberration? Is it possible to get the GA accident rate to zero? I don't think it is.
You then immediately went into the details of the individual accidents and unsurprisingly, found no common thread. My argument is that there will eventually be found a common thread by those who are prepared to take a global view - regulatory incompetence affecting every dimension of Aviation.
IF I am right, and nothing is done, we will see more and more accidents, all no doubt individually attributable to pilot or engineering error but are COLLECTIVELY the result of a failed system of regulation that does not and cannot provide effective leadership of the industry.
You can blame all accidents on some form of regulatory failure. What I said is that the recent increase in the fatalities is attributable to 3 accidents. Hardly
Dick wasn't asking for the global view he was looking at a specific time period. You were the only one who thought that the global view was necessary and proceeded to state the bleeding obvious that systemic issues are present when complex systems fail.
The telltale signs as Dick points out are a creeping increase in the accident rate.
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The assumption behind this thread is wrong. There is no statistical significance in single event that contributes such a large fraction of the sample.
Events like these are stochastic until proven otherwise. Random speculation contributes nothing. Unless you’re pushing a band wagon?
Events like these are stochastic until proven otherwise. Random speculation contributes nothing. Unless you’re pushing a band wagon?
Look left, I used capitals because I was speculating (IF....MAY). I am well aware that we are referring to three accidents and agree with Mr. Glass that they are unrelated coincidences.
What I am stating is that a meltdown of the regulatory system will look exactly like an ever increasing random series of unrelated accidents or incidents- all individually explainable on their own, until one day we have the proverbial big smoking hole and a subsequent analysis determines that there are multiple failures everywhere in the system to the point where it no longer has any integrity.
To put that another way, the damage to the system is slow, random and consists of many small failures...but it’s cumulative.
That may be stating the bleeding obvious to some of you. I challenged Twoomey on ABC talkback radio about the significance of the Ansett B767 grounding and got a flat out abusive denial. Five days later they were out of business.
I believe there may be tell tale signs that we are in trouble and CASA is in unrecoverable decline. The regulatory actions and behaviors of CASA do not look anything like consistent nor part of a long term strategic plan for the good of the Australian economy. It’s nothing personal about CASA, I wish they were succeeding, but I don’t think they are. We need a forward thinking efficient and effective regulator, we all lose if we don’t have one.
What I am stating is that a meltdown of the regulatory system will look exactly like an ever increasing random series of unrelated accidents or incidents- all individually explainable on their own, until one day we have the proverbial big smoking hole and a subsequent analysis determines that there are multiple failures everywhere in the system to the point where it no longer has any integrity.
To put that another way, the damage to the system is slow, random and consists of many small failures...but it’s cumulative.
That may be stating the bleeding obvious to some of you. I challenged Twoomey on ABC talkback radio about the significance of the Ansett B767 grounding and got a flat out abusive denial. Five days later they were out of business.
I believe there may be tell tale signs that we are in trouble and CASA is in unrecoverable decline. The regulatory actions and behaviors of CASA do not look anything like consistent nor part of a long term strategic plan for the good of the Australian economy. It’s nothing personal about CASA, I wish they were succeeding, but I don’t think they are. We need a forward thinking efficient and effective regulator, we all lose if we don’t have one.
AN AOC
Ansett DID NOT have its AOC withdrawn because of the 767 landing gear issue. CASA forced or AN withdrew the 767 from service while the gear issue was looked into and the company continued to operate. Along came 911 and the company decided to appoint voluntary administrators (the Two Marks), a shutdown of roughly 2 wks occurred and started operating again with just the A320s until the sale to Lew & Fox fell over when they realised they wouldn't not get hold of the retail shopping areas in ANs airport leases in SYD & MEL, some 4+ months later.
Despite saying I wasn't going down the rabbit hole a couple important facts need to be stated regarding Ansett. It was AirNZ who put Ansett into administration and that occurred on the Monday before 9-11 which was on Wednesday. Ansett stopped flying on the Friday. There were 2 767 groundings. One before Christmas 2000 and the other around Easter 2001. Thats why the joke was "How do you get Christmas and Easter off at Ansett? Fly the 767."
Stay out of the rabbit hole!
Despite saying I wasn't going down the rabbit hole a couple important facts need to be stated regarding Ansett. It was AirNZ who put Ansett into administration and that occurred on the Monday before 9-11 which was on Wednesday. Ansett stopped flying on the Friday. There were 2 767 groundings. One before Christmas 2000 and the other around Easter 2001. Thats why the joke was "How do you get Christmas and Easter off at Ansett? Fly the 767."
As to whether or not it was ANZ (they owned us) or AN management itself is really irrelevant, the AOC was not canned by CASA over the 767 landing gear. issue.
Edit: Wed was the 12th Sept (11th US time), Friday was the 8th (Oz time) and AN was still operating; sorry, but your memory is incorrect. My log book has me flying on the 11th (which was the night I o/n in ADL) and the 12th (the morning of 911 Oz time). Next flight was after the 2 Marks took over on the 13th of Oct.
If my memory is correct I believe the last day was 2 days after 911 (14th of Sept).
Last edited by exfocx; 22nd Feb 2020 at 06:46. Reason: additional info
I always held the Aust Fed gov’t as a significant causal factor in the Ansett collapse. Allowing Air New Zealand (ANZ) to buy it was disgraceful (a bit like getting a loan for something you can’t afford because ANZ were not in a great financial position) because when times got tougher an iconic Ansett was allowed to fall by an overseas owner. Apologies for the thread drift...
No, I was overnighting in ADL the morning (SA time) the towers went down, I woke up and put the news on (very early morning am) to see the 2nd tower go down. We (the crew) gathered in the lobby as we checked out (ADL Hilton) and talked about it! I was crewing an AN A320 flt that morning, so I'm pretty bloody certain that we were still operating and that no one had forgotten to tell us! We did four sectors that day.
As to whether or not it was ANZ (they owned us) or AN management itself is really irrelevant, the AOC was not canned by CASA over the 767 landing gear. issue.
Edit: Wed was the 12th Sept (11th US time), Friday was the 8th (Oz time) and AN was still operating; sorry, but your memory is incorrect. My log book has me flying on the 11th (which was the night I o/n in ADL) and the 12th (the morning of 911 Oz time). Next flight was after the 2 Marks took over on the 13th of Oct.
If my memory is correct I believe the last day was 2 days after 911 (14th of Sept).
As to whether or not it was ANZ (they owned us) or AN management itself is really irrelevant, the AOC was not canned by CASA over the 767 landing gear. issue.
Edit: Wed was the 12th Sept (11th US time), Friday was the 8th (Oz time) and AN was still operating; sorry, but your memory is incorrect. My log book has me flying on the 11th (which was the night I o/n in ADL) and the 12th (the morning of 911 Oz time). Next flight was after the 2 Marks took over on the 13th of Oct.
If my memory is correct I believe the last day was 2 days after 911 (14th of Sept).
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Semantics
lololol Looks like we're both wrong.
I will type this slowly exfocx so you understand what I wrote. Monday the 10th Ansett was put into administration, it kept operating. Wednesday Sept 12 in Oz the twin towers were hit. Thursday Sept 13 Ansett was still operating (my logbook shows me flying on that day). My last call to crewing was on Thursday night and I quote, "Trevor Jensen said we were going to trade our way out of trouble". Friday Sept. 14 Ansett stops operating as the administrators (who was Price Waterhouse at that stage) realised that there was no future for an airline in need of a new owner. If you still have difficulty with accepting my timeline and PM me so that we don't take this thread any further down the rabbit hole.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ansett_Australia