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Is the "Heavy" Piston Twin dead

Old 28th Jan 2023, 17:11
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I see the C209EW has a significant number of LOI’s.

This should really give the old ‘heavy twin’ a run. Competitively priced, the new upgraded engine with the redundancy powered electric option is really proving popular to the woke generation.

I’m surprised it’s taken this long.
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Old 28th Jan 2023, 21:12
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Large piston twins just don't have the demand. 20 years ago a piper rep said they would make PA31s again if there was a market for at least 100+. They get drips and drabs of interest but the used market trumps new prices and by the time the used planes run out might be years and new technology will use a new design or the use for them is jus uneconomical. After all this is a market for working aircraft, not private use.

If you really want something like a Navajo for private use you are better off buying an old one and restoring it. It will be cheaper than a new one.
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Old 28th Jan 2023, 23:40
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Global, 209 LOIís are fine but try getting them to lock in a delivery date
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Old 29th Jan 2023, 02:25
  #104 (permalink)  
 
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A man has not lived, until he has experienced a cool early morning departure sitting between two GTSIO-520’s.
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Old 29th Jan 2023, 02:55
  #105 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by megle2
Global, 209 LOIís are fine but try getting them to lock in a delivery date
Thereís a short delay while ICAO finalises the SARP for GADDS. The 209EW will be fitted with GADDS-compatible avionics.
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Old 29th Jan 2023, 06:34
  #106 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Stationair8
A man has not lived, until he has experienced a cool early morning departure sitting between two GTSIO-520ís.
Agreed!
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Old 29th Jan 2023, 09:22
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Ahh yes but have you flown it?

Ground hugging bastard.

Set up in cruise attitude and power and the fuselage vibrates like a Bunnings garden shed in a cyclone.

The Ailerons are so heavy there is a Tecnam-Pilots only Fitness App and an instagram page showing off the Bicep/Tricep benefits of Tecnam flying.

Loved the interior. Loved the Cockpit. ******* terrible aeroplane to fly.
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Old 29th Jan 2023, 09:57
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Originally Posted by Horatio Leafblower
Ahh yes but have you flown it?

Ground hugging bastard.

Set up in cruise attitude and power and the fuselage vibrates like a Bunnings garden shed in a cyclone.

The Ailerons are so heavy there is a Tecnam-Pilots only Fitness App and an instagram page showing off the Bicep/Tricep benefits of Tecnam flying.

Loved the interior. Loved the Cockpit. ******* terrible aeroplane to fly.
+1 on the above.
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Old 29th Jan 2023, 22:04
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the Piston twin is clearly on the way out in favour of SE turbine. The real question is when will the airlines drop the requirments for 500 multi etc..
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Old 29th Jan 2023, 22:44
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Originally Posted by Eaglerocker
The real question is when will the airlines drop the requirments for 500 multi etc..
When there is no one left with 500 hrs multi.

GA in Australia will continue to decline as the piston fleets reach the end of their economical life. They wonít all be replaced by turbines because of the cost.

Airlines will have to go to cadet programs as they do in Europe where there is a limited GA pool.

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Old 30th Jan 2023, 00:26
  #111 (permalink)  
 
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I saw on Facebook that be first Cirrus Vision jet is about to be approved for charter. LCR was the rego and it was on Sunrise for the Angel Flight prize draw.
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Old 30th Jan 2023, 01:29
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The Ailerons are so heavy there is a Tecnam-Pilots only Fitness App and an instagram page showing off the Bicep/Tricep benefits of Tecnam flying.
What? You mean just like a 'Bongo Van??' aka 'Brumm Brumms.
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Old 30th Jan 2023, 02:45
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Originally Posted by Capt Fathom
GA in Australia will continue to decline as the piston fleets reach the end of their economical life. They wonít all be replaced by turbines because of the cost.
You're right about the turbines, but I reckon GA will be round for as long as overseas students (esp. from India and China) continue to come over to train in year-old Cessnas and re-engined Seminoles and various other twin trainers. There are a surprising number of Aero Commanders still working commercially. For at least as long as Lyconental continue to make parts and engines there'll be someone here wanting to rebuild them. At the rate it's going we'll be the last country in the world where you can still buy 100LL ...and we'll have the most antique GA fleet also.
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Old 30th Jan 2023, 11:11
  #114 (permalink)  
 
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G100UL - GAMI's 100 octane unleaded fuel might keep piston engines going for a long time.

https://gami.com/g100ul/news.php
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Old 30th Jan 2023, 21:56
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There's over 100,000 piston AVGAS powered aircraft in the US. So while 100LL might be on the phase out list by 2030 it will be replaced by something, or just keep being produced. And yes G100UL is on the cards. The real problem is the cost of the fuels, the higher it gets relative to AVTUR the more AVTUR powerplants will be chosen.
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Old 30th Jan 2023, 22:18
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Originally Posted by 43Inches
There's over 100,000 piston AVGAS powered aircraft in the US. So while 100LL might be on the phase out list by 2030 it will be replaced by something, or just keep being produced. And yes G100UL is on the cards. The real problem is the cost of the fuels, the higher it gets relative to AVTUR the more AVTUR powerplants will be chosen.
Not really.. the price of fuel goes up and down daily with supply and demand, whereas the type of fuel used (and what you have to buy regardless) is dictated by (a) the technology best suited to the mission, (b) the infrastructure in place and (c) the cost of maintenance over the long term. That's why there are far more petrol cars than diesel on the roads, but not that many petrol trucks. AVTUR is cheaper than 100LL because it's consumed in significantly higher quantities by turbine engines that are extremely expensive to maintain.

The issue I see with G100UL is that the technology (and the STCs) is owned by GAMI. Unless they make their tech free for everyone else to make (or, I suppose, Innospec decides to stop making TEL), here in Oz, G100UL is never going to be cheaper than 100LL.
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Old 30th Jan 2023, 22:54
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Assuming 100LL isn’t ‘banned’…

The prospect of 100LL being ‘banned’ in various states in the USA was among the factors that prompted GAMI to pursue its own alternative.
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Old 30th Jan 2023, 23:35
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Originally Posted by Lead Balloon
Assuming 100LL isn’t ‘banned’…

The prospect of 100LL being ‘banned’ in various states in the USA was among the factors that prompted GAMI to pursue its own alternative.
Though it isn't likely to be 'banned' over here because (a) the 'Big 4' oil companies (one in particular) kinda enjoy the monopoly they have right now and (b) GA industry in this country is too small for anyone in power to notice (or care) that we're still using it! Aviation White Paper, anyone??

They're not that noble.. GAMI were prompted to pursue its own alternative because they saw an opportunity (if it worked) to make some serious money.

If Innospec USA stop making TEL for whatever reason then, yeah, GAMI can just wander in and take over whenever they like. So it's politics, not technology or cost or anything else that's the real issue (in the USA as well as here).
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Old 31st Jan 2023, 00:24
  #119 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by PiperCameron
Not really.. the price of fuel goes up and down daily with supply and demand, whereas the type of fuel used (and what you have to buy regardless) is dictated by (a) the technology best suited to the mission, (b) the infrastructure in place and (c) the cost of maintenance over the long term. That's why there are far more petrol cars than diesel on the roads, but not that many petrol trucks. AVTUR is cheaper than 100LL because it's consumed in significantly higher quantities by turbine engines that are extremely expensive to maintain.

The issue I see with G100UL is that the technology (and the STCs) is owned by GAMI. Unless they make their tech free for everyone else to make (or, I suppose, Innospec decides to stop making TEL), here in Oz, G100UL is never going to be cheaper than 100LL.
The base price of fuel/oil goes up and down with the market, the cost of refining and wholesaling a particular product will be multiplied by that cost. AVGAS is now a rare fuel product, made for dwindling demand, so it will continue to rise in % vs the cost of AVTUR. There is also the facility, transport and storage costs associated with delivery of a product that has a limited life span, ie used by date. So the cost of AVGAS away from refineries will also increase significantly as use declines, making less pump facilities viable at less ports. Where as AVTUR usage still remains fairly strong for regional airlines, aeromed and other turbine powered private use aircraft.

Refineries will not drop the price of AVGAS to spur demand, they are purely providing it as a service and income, the less it pays the bills the less AVGAS will be available, not cheaper.

In short AVGAS will continue to increase in price relative to AVTUR as time goes by and you might find the only ones selling it outside of major cities will be the satellite ports with large flying schools. That is if they don't switch to diesel AVTUR powered trainers.

The only way an AVGAS replacement will be cheaper than AVTUR is if there is some huge change in the way it is refined, dropping lead is a start, but that might make refining a longer more expensive process making in more expensive again. It's probably better to let the fuel type die and make everything AVTUR or Car fuel based, or electric or whatever, rather than keep a separate fuel technology going. But it's a long way off as the US will not be dropping AVGAS powered aircraft anytime soon.
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Old 31st Jan 2023, 01:41
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Heavy piston not dead yet.

Tecnam p2012 is a heavy piston twin . Selling quite well.
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