Originally Posted by
PiperCameron
Not really.. the price of fuel goes up and down daily with supply and demand, whereas the type of fuel used (and what you have to buy regardless) is dictated by (a) the technology best suited to the mission, (b) the infrastructure in place and (c) the cost of maintenance over the long term. That's why there are far more petrol cars than diesel on the roads, but not that many petrol trucks. AVTUR is cheaper than 100LL because it's consumed in significantly higher quantities by turbine engines that are extremely expensive to maintain.
The issue I see with G100UL is that the technology (and the STCs) is owned by GAMI. Unless they make their tech free for everyone else to make (or, I suppose, Innospec decides to stop making TEL), here in Oz, G100UL is never going to be cheaper than 100LL.
The base price of fuel/oil goes up and down with the market, the cost of refining and wholesaling a particular product will be multiplied by that cost. AVGAS is now a rare fuel product, made for dwindling demand, so it will continue to rise in % vs the cost of AVTUR. There is also the facility, transport and storage costs associated with delivery of a product that has a limited life span, ie used by date. So the cost of AVGAS away from refineries will also increase significantly as use declines, making less pump facilities viable at less ports. Where as AVTUR usage still remains fairly strong for regional airlines, aeromed and other turbine powered private use aircraft.
Refineries will not drop the price of AVGAS to spur demand, they are purely providing it as a service and income, the less it pays the bills the less AVGAS will be available, not cheaper.
In short AVGAS will continue to increase in price relative to AVTUR as time goes by and you might find the only ones selling it outside of major cities will be the satellite ports with large flying schools. That is if they don't switch to diesel AVTUR powered trainers.
The only way an AVGAS replacement will be cheaper than AVTUR is if there is some huge change in the way it is refined, dropping lead is a start, but that might make refining a longer more expensive process making in more expensive again. It's probably better to let the fuel type die and make everything AVTUR or Car fuel based, or electric or whatever, rather than keep a separate fuel technology going. But it's a long way off as the US will not be dropping AVGAS powered aircraft anytime soon.