Originally Posted by
43Inches
There's over 100,000 piston AVGAS powered aircraft in the US. So while 100LL might be on the phase out list by 2030 it will be replaced by something, or just keep being produced. And yes G100UL is on the cards. The real problem is the cost of the fuels, the higher it gets relative to AVTUR the more AVTUR powerplants will be chosen.
Not really.. the price of fuel goes up and down daily with supply and demand, whereas the type of fuel used (and what you have to buy regardless) is dictated by (a) the technology best suited to the mission, (b) the infrastructure in place and (c) the cost of maintenance over the long term. That's why there are far more petrol cars than diesel on the roads, but not that many petrol trucks. AVTUR is cheaper than 100LL because it's consumed in significantly higher quantities by turbine engines that are extremely expensive to maintain.
The issue I see with G100UL is that the technology (and the STCs) is owned by GAMI. Unless they make their tech free for everyone else to make (or, I suppose, Innospec decides to stop making TEL), here in Oz, G100UL is never going to be cheaper than 100LL.