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The imminent death of US aviation

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Old 10th May 2017, 11:59
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Originally Posted by boofhead
Airlines no longer require a degree as a condition of employment.
A degree is pointless; and doesn't even enter into the hiring factor in the rest of the world (except maybe Turkish Airlines for the upgrade)...

Gotta degree in Peruvian Poetry? Heh, United or Delta will snap you up for your obvious inate flying ability
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Old 10th May 2017, 15:09
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A degree is NOT pointless. It's only pointless if you're trying to justify not having one. No one with a degree regrets getting one or makes excuses. Only those without make excuses. Euros make ridiculous claims that the JAA is the equivalent. Nonsense. A degree teaches one time managment, hustle and life skills. Stop trying to justify your lack of qualifications. This is why pilots are not paid well in many places. Most pilots are American. Nearly all American pilots have degrees. Consider a degree a prerequisite and not an unnecessary step in your career.
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Old 10th May 2017, 15:15
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I was in Alaska in the 90's and early 2000's. You needed 1500 plus back then to fly there. This is as much self preservation as it is an insurance requirement. I worked on fishing boats as I didn't have 1500 hours. This was during the summers when I was in college and shortly after graduating. I paid for college and flight training with the money I earned. I'm now a 737 Captain and have been since my late 20's. I earned my way and didn't think I was entitled to anything. I've flown with dozens of low time euros that did P2F. Half of these guys were spoiled, entitled cry babies that didn't have realistic expectations and felt they were owed something. This attitude does not translate well into adulthood and especially into a cockpit. I prefer the American system...
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Old 10th May 2017, 18:31
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Thanks for your comments. I have been entertained.

It was funny to read that pilots think they are as good and as well-trained and educated as Doctors and engineers although most have not been to professional training and any degree was acceptable, even in animal husbandry or cake icing. Because of their exceptional qualifications they should be paid the same as a surgeon. But at the same time a degree is not needed, it is a waste of effort. And of course the only reason pilots don't want to work is because they don't get paid enough. Any small company would be stupid not to pay them as much as a professional engineer even though they cannot pass that cost on to the customers and would go out of business. By the way those pilots all have a professional certificate which makes them qualified beyond belief. It is incomprehensible why many aviation companies will not give them a job, along with the big dollars, even though most have never actually carried a passenger for hire or flown to a small grass airport or flown out of their own State and avoid actually going into cloud even if they have an instrument rating. But watch them fly the simulator! If only the aviation company would give them the training, including airplane training that could cost tens of thousands of dollars, line training and ground instruction/simulator etc, more thousands of dollars, they will then consider working for that company if they are paid enough, and even then they will decide if they really want to do that job after trying it out, because, you know, there are a lot more jobs out there and they really want to fly for the majors so maybe they can give up 6 months to see if it fits?

Wonder why they are not successful?

And why would it take years to get the 1500 hour requirement? Compare the olden days, when most airlines would take a pilot with around 500 hours and actually prefer that to a high-time pilot because then they could train her the way they wanted her to fly and after a suitable period would move her to the left seat as a known commodity and someone who has company loyalty. It worked, you must admit. I had to fight for every job I got under that system and it sorts out the wheat and the chaff pretty quick. Of course it is not fair, but until recently, the idea that the world owed you a living was not a concept realistic people believed.

Now it is easier for a pilot to get a job. The wheel has turned, big time. Pilots who would never have a shot under the old system are guaranteed a career. No need any longer for a degree (that was a recent change, btw). The experience requirements are scaled down to a requirement to be breathing. Yet some still cannot get a job? Maybe it is the attitude? A company has to invest big time in a pilot and needs to know that they will get a return. Someone who wants big bucks, lots of time off, short working days, guaranteed vacations, retirement plans, medical coverage and the like is not a good choice for most small operators because, you might not be aware of this, but they have to make enough money to pay their bills.

When I am talking to a wannabee I want to know what drives him/her. If it is money, or an easy life, or time off, or vacations, the door is right there. If it is an opportunity to learn real flying, get personal satisfaction for a job well done, provide the community with the benefits of their experience and skill, is not afraid to fly at night or in cloud, and looks forward to learning more about an industry they are passionate about, we can talk more. The first guy will let the company, the customers and himself down. The second might not be all that the company wants, might disappoint in some areas, but is by far the preferred candidate.

That is partly why am staggered at the responses I read about here. How can so-called professionals not be concerned for the industry itself? Are you all so self-centered that it is really only about the money? Very disappointing.

And yes, it would take years for the youngster I am talking about to get that airline job. Yes, he will need more than 1500 hours just as the under the old rules he needed more than 250 hours. If he does not need the degree any longer he can shave 4 years off the requirement but how does he get 1500 hours after he gets his CPL/IR? And what use is flight instruction as a CFI at a pilot mill? He knows nothing about aviation but he spends 1200 hours teaching it to other beginners? That is supposed to impress an employer? How does he get multi time? Instrument time? Turbine time? What companies are there that will give him that? He might start out as an intern, why not? Other professional industries expect that. Doctors do that when they start. Pilots have always done that, why does a wannabee who has a CPL and nothing else expect otherwise? Where does it say he is owed?

I figure a pilot who scrambles for any job, will do anything to get a start, will probably fly a couple of hundred hours a year, maybe less than that at first. So, yes, it will take a long time, years of time during which he will not make enough to put gas in his car, if he has a car. But now we are in the entitlement era. Who pays for that? The aviation company? The taxpayer?

Here's a hint: The military needs pilots. They will give you good training on great equipment and will let you work for a degree as well, and pay you too! What a deal!

So if you have not done what you needed to do to get a job that pays you what you want, don't bother crying to me.

And of course the 1500 hour rule can be changed. Did I not just read that the new President and Congress cancelled the ACA? Why did they do that? On a whim?

What was it supposed to do anyway? It had no bearing on the Colgan accident, in fact has made conditions worse. Both those pilots had 1500 hours and an ATP. They were maybe not trained correctly and were tired. To date the training has still not been provided and pilots are working harder than ever and are more tired. Because of the shortage.

But I forgot, you guys cannot read and are not aware of the shortage. If only the evil companies paid more the shortage would go away. Never mind that then the pay would go down again. That this is not happening is proof that there is a genuine shortage and if the industry is to survive we all should be doing what we can encourage more youngsters to follow in our footsteps and fly. If there is not a good base of private pilots, guys and girls who fly for the love of flight, the entire edifice will collapse. You might be sitting at the top, but then your fall will be greater as even the big companies go bankrupt. The skies will be filled with drones. But, hey, you can get 125K to drive them from your bedroom so it is not all bad, right?
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Old 10th May 2017, 18:57
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I believe it was shortly after 9/11 happened that training costs skyrocketed. I don't know if it was due to insurance requirements or just greedy flight schools.
I don't see a ton of flight schools making a lot of money. Margins are tight these days.

Besides insurance and general inflation, 100LL prices have skyrocketed. Today a student in a 172 might burn $50/hr just in gas. Back in the 90s, you can fly a nice twin for like $45/hr wet (all inclusive) and the school can still make money. It's a different world now.
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Old 10th May 2017, 19:49
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My experience preceded most of those here. After leaving the armed forces(rotary wing, 771 hours-tt), I investigated going the pro route. This was in the early 80s. Let me tell you, back then trying to get into a 121 seat was murder compared to the past 8-10 years. None of the majors would even let you in the door unless you had +1000 in Air Farce, and preferably loadstar, C130, C141, C5 type. I had a lowly rotary wing ticket, which I then got transitioned to fixed wing in the front seat of a Citabria. So, I got my comm finally, and believe it or not - I thought that towing banners for peanuts up and down the coast of SoCal would prepare me for a pro pilot career. Hah!! What a noob I was. No one, and I mean not one person in a major would even let me in the door. I had tailwheel, off-airport, mountain, and some ME time, but it was worthless.

Here's the deal, and it applies to a lot of careers, but aviation careers are even more relevant. The open market will determine price and availability. A prev poster mentioned that today's kids are far more informed about the inside scoop, and so reluctant to do the work needed to move up. I think this is a key indicator. There was that aura back in the 80s, that with the right skills, and the right degree(EE from UCLA), someone could work their way to the FE seat, or the right seat at PSA, or one of the other feeder carriers, and maybe someday work up to a 7x7 at United or AA. What - a - bunch - of - BS. Now, kids know that most of the jobs are going to pay spit. And, you have to live out of a suitcase. And, worst of all, the probability of getting that big right seat job in the majors is very, very small. You have to wait for a lot of people to die, retire, and it's like credit. You can have it if you already have it, but if you need it you have to already have it.

Anyway, I had a good time, although I almost ran into a Piper one day while I was oogling some babes down in Torrey Pines. Literally, I could read the "DC" logo on his headset we got that close. So I went on to a profession in nuclear energy. It was a good time too, and paid well. But - I caution anyone that is looking for pro pilot job that no matter if it's in AK, or not - you will be rejected many times before you find a cheap seat to hold down while you burn a lot of fuel, and if you ever do make it up to the majors, you will have left a nice trail of tears along the way.
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Old 10th May 2017, 22:11
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Originally Posted by peekay4
I don't see a ton of flight schools making a lot of money. Margins are tight these days.

Besides insurance and general inflation, 100LL prices have skyrocketed. Today a student in a 172 might burn $50/hr just in gas. Back in the 90s, you can fly a nice twin for like $45/hr wet (all inclusive) and the school can still make money. It's a different world now.
When I needed flight time I joined the CAP. A very capable organization. I still fly for them. However gas did not cost $5 or more, only $1. Flight time for the airplane (172) was $35 an hour. Very doable. Now it is beyond ridiculous and I don't see how anyone can afford it, especially at the rates the flight schools charge.
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Old 10th May 2017, 22:15
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Boofhead,

I take it you are a Part 135 operator--the flight time mins there haven't changed since the the 1970s, what is the problem?
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Old 11th May 2017, 00:23
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Originally Posted by boofhead
If we doubled or even increased the pay too much we would go out of business. Our customers can do more now with email/Skype/Gotomeeting etc and do not need to visit as often as they might have done in the past so they will not charter us if we raise the costs too high. The economy is down and there is not as much work for us as there was so there is no money lying around to pay pilots. Reality.
Sounds like your business has outlived (or is outliving) its usefulness. Hardly something to blame on any kind of a pilot shortage.
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Old 11th May 2017, 02:11
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Originally Posted by boofhead
Thanks for your comments. I have been entertained.

It was funny to read that pilots think they are as good and as well-trained and educated as Doctors and engineers although most have not been to professional training and any degree was acceptable, even in animal husbandry or cake icing. Because of their exceptional qualifications they should be paid the same as a surgeon. But at the same time a degree is not needed, it is a waste of effort. And of course the only reason pilots don't want to work is because they don't get paid enough. Any small company would be stupid not to pay them as much as a professional engineer even though they cannot pass that cost on to the customers and would go out of business. By the way those pilots all have a professional certificate which makes them qualified beyond belief. It is incomprehensible why many aviation companies will not give them a job, along with the big dollars, even though most have never actually carried a passenger for hire or flown to a small grass airport or flown out of their own State and avoid actually going into cloud even if they have an instrument rating. But watch them fly the simulator! If only the aviation company would give them the training, including airplane training that could cost tens of thousands of dollars, line training and ground instruction/simulator etc, more thousands of dollars, they will then consider working for that company if they are paid enough, and even then they will decide if they really want to do that job after trying it out, because, you know, there are a lot more jobs out there and they really want to fly for the majors so maybe they can give up 6 months to see if it fits?

Wonder why they are not successful?

And why would it take years to get the 1500 hour requirement? Compare the olden days, when most airlines would take a pilot with around 500 hours and actually prefer that to a high-time pilot because then they could train her the way they wanted her to fly and after a suitable period would move her to the left seat as a known commodity and someone who has company loyalty. It worked, you must admit. I had to fight for every job I got under that system and it sorts out the wheat and the chaff pretty quick. Of course it is not fair, but until recently, the idea that the world owed you a living was not a concept realistic people believed.

Now it is easier for a pilot to get a job. The wheel has turned, big time. Pilots who would never have a shot under the old system are guaranteed a career. No need any longer for a degree (that was a recent change, btw). The experience requirements are scaled down to a requirement to be breathing. Yet some still cannot get a job? Maybe it is the attitude? A company has to invest big time in a pilot and needs to know that they will get a return. Someone who wants big bucks, lots of time off, short working days, guaranteed vacations, retirement plans, medical coverage and the like is not a good choice for most small operators because, you might not be aware of this, but they have to make enough money to pay their bills.

When I am talking to a wannabee I want to know what drives him/her. If it is money, or an easy life, or time off, or vacations, the door is right there. If it is an opportunity to learn real flying, get personal satisfaction for a job well done, provide the community with the benefits of their experience and skill, is not afraid to fly at night or in cloud, and looks forward to learning more about an industry they are passionate about, we can talk more. The first guy will let the company, the customers and himself down. The second might not be all that the company wants, might disappoint in some areas, but is by far the preferred candidate.

That is partly why am staggered at the responses I read about here. How can so-called professionals not be concerned for the industry itself? Are you all so self-centered that it is really only about the money? Very disappointing.

And yes, it would take years for the youngster I am talking about to get that airline job. Yes, he will need more than 1500 hours just as the under the old rules he needed more than 250 hours. If he does not need the degree any longer he can shave 4 years off the requirement but how does he get 1500 hours after he gets his CPL/IR? And what use is flight instruction as a CFI at a pilot mill? He knows nothing about aviation but he spends 1200 hours teaching it to other beginners? That is supposed to impress an employer? How does he get multi time? Instrument time? Turbine time? What companies are there that will give him that? He might start out as an intern, why not? Other professional industries expect that. Doctors do that when they start. Pilots have always done that, why does a wannabee who has a CPL and nothing else expect otherwise? Where does it say he is owed?

I figure a pilot who scrambles for any job, will do anything to get a start, will probably fly a couple of hundred hours a year, maybe less than that at first. So, yes, it will take a long time, years of time during which he will not make enough to put gas in his car, if he has a car. But now we are in the entitlement era. Who pays for that? The aviation company? The taxpayer?

Here's a hint: The military needs pilots. They will give you good training on great equipment and will let you work for a degree as well, and pay you too! What a deal!

So if you have not done what you needed to do to get a job that pays you what you want, don't bother crying to me.

And of course the 1500 hour rule can be changed. Did I not just read that the new President and Congress cancelled the ACA? Why did they do that? On a whim?

What was it supposed to do anyway? It had no bearing on the Colgan accident, in fact has made conditions worse. Both those pilots had 1500 hours and an ATP. They were maybe not trained correctly and were tired. To date the training has still not been provided and pilots are working harder than ever and are more tired. Because of the shortage.

But I forgot, you guys cannot read and are not aware of the shortage. If only the evil companies paid more the shortage would go away. Never mind that then the pay would go down again. That this is not happening is proof that there is a genuine shortage and if the industry is to survive we all should be doing what we can encourage more youngsters to follow in our footsteps and fly. If there is not a good base of private pilots, guys and girls who fly for the love of flight, the entire edifice will collapse. You might be sitting at the top, but then your fall will be greater as even the big companies go bankrupt. The skies will be filled with drones. But, hey, you can get 125K to drive them from your bedroom so it is not all bad, right?
If you want to work for a major airline you absolutely need a degree. The regionals may not, but they never really have traditionally, so I don't know why you keep repeating it.

I'm also not sure what your point is. I've worked for $18k per year and commuted halfway across the country, spending 7 days a month in my own bed on poverty level wages. I'll tell you what, the love of flying for the sake of flying fades relatively quickly. However, I did it with a smile because they gave me shot and it was a means toward the brass ring. However, I don't think any professional pilot should be packing ravioli in their bag because they can't afford a meal in a hotel restaurant.

Oh and before that, I was a CFI making even less flying in plenty of IMC.

I'm proud to have gutted it out, but it's not an entitlement mentality to want those who come behind you to not have to earn food stamp level wages. The cost of a degree and flight training today is also much higher than it was even 10 years ago. A $100,000 dollar investment requires a return, just as any other professional job field.

These things cycle like anything else, and until recently there was a massive glut of pilots. You conveniently leave out the fact that just 7 years ago, after years of furloughs at all levels, 1,000 hours wouldn't get you hired at any regional. It took movement at the majors and the economy to create openings that were extremely competitive.

Your disdain for CFI's and lack of knowledge in the area is also telling. I know current CFI's who are getting their doors beat down, and passing interviews before they even hit 1500 hours. If they have a degree its only 1000 hours.

Spending a year to a year and a half as a CFI helps one gain critical PIC skills, and builds a well rounded pilot. Full stop.

I understand there is pressure on smaller operators, and I sympathize with that. However if your business model relies on abusing some new pilot then maybe that segment of the industry is ripe for some change.

It's also funny how you mock a degree, yet the vast majority of guys and gals I fly with have degrees in Professional Aeronautics, engineering of some sort, or business administration. The world is evolving and the major airlines today will tell you they are hiring Captains, not just someone who can fly an airplane.

I love flying and what I do, but without a career path to a top tier job, I would go do something else and fly for fun.
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Old 11th May 2017, 02:23
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Originally Posted by galaxy flyer
Boofhead,

I take it you are a Part 135 operator--the flight time mins there haven't changed since the the 1970s, what is the problem?
I don't understand you. What hasn't changed? If you want a job flying a C207 you need 500 hours. If you want to fly floats you need float time. If you want to fly multi you need a multi rating. So what?
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Old 11th May 2017, 02:52
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Originally Posted by boofhead

And of course the 1500 hour rule can be changed. Did I not just read that the new President and Congress cancelled the ACA?
Actually, no, you did not read that. What you read was that The House of Representatives (Only one part or our legislative branch) passed a bill which wold rescind it if the bill were also passed by the Senate (which it hasn't) The Senate is considering a different bill that has different provisions regarding the amendment or repeal of the ACA. Various factions have been trying to repeal the ACA for almost the entire 7 years it's been in effect. So far it hasn't happened. Perhaps it will this time.

To your point, Neither I nor anyone else has ever said that Congress couldn't change the ATP requirement. What I have said is that the FAA can't do it, that it requires action from Congress.
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Old 11th May 2017, 03:12
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The flight time requirements in Part 135 haven't changed, why all the hate on a Part 121 rule?
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Old 11th May 2017, 03:16
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]

He'd rather blame something unrelated than admit that he's just not offering competitive pay and work conditions in today's pilot market.


It's that simple.
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Old 11th May 2017, 04:06
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Originally Posted by 4runner
A degree is NOT pointless. It's only pointless if you're trying to justify not having one.
Who's justifying anything here? In my flying career (nearly 30 years) I've known very very few pilots with degrees... Then again I've been flying all over the world rather than the USA!

A degree teaches one time managment, hustle and life skills.
Learning to fly young also teaches time management, hustle and life skills Really, why would you waste 3 or 4 years in university when you could be flying, gaining experience and working your way up a seniority list?
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Old 11th May 2017, 07:17
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BOOFHEAD
When I am talking to a wannabee I want to know what drives him/her. If it is money, or an easy life, or time off, or vacations, the door is right there. If it is an opportunity to learn real flying, get personal satisfaction for a job well done, provide the community with the benefits of their experience and skill, is not afraid to fly at night or in cloud, and looks forward to learning more about an industry they are passionate about, we can talk more. The first guy will let the company, the customers and himself down. The second might not be all that the company wants, might disappoint in some areas, but is by far the preferred candidate.
You do seem to be avoiding the fact that your location inevitably has an impact resulting in a relatively small pool of pilots willing to apply. Having worked occasionally in Alaska it became obvious to me fairly quickly that most of those pilots who were content to live and work there indefinitely had been born and bred there. It's an extremely uncomfortable environment, difficult, expensive and a very long and expensive way from the lower 48 where family and friends are located. Taking all this into account you can hardly be surprised that pilots with many options are not beating a path to your door. Inevitably you're going to have to attract local pilots and that means competing with other operators when it comes to employment packages and ticketing prices. I think this has very little to do with the 1500 hr rule and a lot to do with what people in the outlying communities are prepared to pay for an air service, maybe they should be encouraged to campaign for more government subsidies.
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Old 11th May 2017, 07:21
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Originally Posted by White Knight
Who's justifying anything here? In my flying career (nearly 30 years) I've known very very few pilots with degrees... Then again I've been flying all over the world rather than the USA!



Learning to fly young also teaches time management, hustle and life skills Really, why would you waste 3 or 4 years in university when you could be flying, gaining experience and working your way up a seniority list?
I make more money than you and have more time off.
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Old 11th May 2017, 16:43
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You do seem to be avoiding the fact that your location inevitably has an impact resulting in a relatively small pool of pilots willing to apply. Having worked occasionally in Alaska it became obvious to me fairly quickly that most of those pilots who were content to live and work there indefinitely had been born and bred there. It's an extremely uncomfortable environment, difficult, expensive and a very long and expensive way from the lower 48 where family and friends are located. Taking all this into account you can hardly be surprised that pilots with many options are not beating a path to your door. Inevitably you're going to have to attract local pilots and that means competing with other operators when it comes to employment packages and ticketing prices. I think this has very little to do with the 1500 hr rule and a lot to do with what people in the outlying communities are prepared to pay for an air service, maybe they should be encouraged to campaign for more government subsidies.[/quote]

I guess I am too close. I try to illustrate what I see is the real problem by personal anecdotes. I agree that I need to compete for the available pilots and I agree that an Alaskan pilot has a far better chance of working here because knowing how to fly here is the most important indication of whether the pilot will be safe. So I talk about what I know.

What really drives me in this matter is the damage being done to the US aviation industry. By cutting the supply of pilots through this stupid and unnecessary 1500 hour rule it has, most importantly, caused a shortage in the newbie ranks. Hardly anyone sees an airline pilot career as being viable any longer. New pilot starts are way down, flight schools are closing, the number of pilots as shown by FAA records are way down.

Without a strong base, the entire edifice of aviation as it is practiced in the US will collapse. If the public cannot afford to fly, they will find alternatives. telephone/computer/Skype and such already reduces the need to travel, and drones can do a lot of what airplanes flown by real pilots used to do.

If the salaries and costs go up because of a pilot shortage many companies will go out of business. Look at what the increased minimum wage is doing to the fast food and restaurant business. Even MacDonalds is starting to use robots. Have you ever been to Japan and seen the things you can buy from vending machines? No employees in sight.

As the industry accommodates to the shortage it will shrink and there will be fewer job opportunities as a result. Fewer pilots and therefore fewer jobs will be the new norm.

When the industry becomes smaller, there will be fewer jobs at the top, too. Those who are doing well right now, being paid more than they ever thought they would, could find themselves out on the street and wondering how it all went so badly wrong.

Jobs have always been cyclic. We should be more aware than most that what goes up must come down.
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Old 12th May 2017, 03:55
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Originally Posted by boofhead

What really drives me in this matter is the damage being done to the US aviation industry. By cutting the supply of pilots through this stupid and unnecessary 1500 hour rule it has, most importantly, caused a shortage in the newbie ranks.
Well, again, I don't know when you arrived on the scene in US aviation, but I'd speculate that it was sometime well after the 1990's were past. If you had been here, you would know that the minimums to get hired at a regional/commuter were 1200 hours and 200 multi time. Many regional airlines had higher minimums, but you were pretty much wasting your time applying to any scheduled operator without 1200/200. At the time, it was pretty much an article of faith that you had to instruct, tow banners, haul skydivers, etc for a while before you had the minimum time to get an interview at an airline. I'm not sure how or why that became the magic number, but it did. That's only 300 hours less than the current regulatory 1500 minimum. That's not much difference, yet, the world still turned, airplanes flew new hire classes were filled, and people became pilots and got jobs. The 1200/200 persisted into the early 2000's before it started to fall.

The point here is that 1500 hours isn't a significantly higher barrier than 1200/200, yet the 1200/200 requirement didn't prevent people from becoming pilots. If there's a shortage of pilots now, it wasn't caused by the 1500 rules, because there were plenty of pilots back when the realistic minimum experience for an airline job was 1200 hours. It's just silly to claim that the need for 300 more hours is having a profound effect on whether people enter aviation.
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Old 12th May 2017, 15:02
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Perception has a lot to do with it. A young person out of school choosing a career could see a way to get enough time to be acceptable to an airline, could maybe get the CFI job, a stint flying pipelines, maybe working with a small 135 company for a while, then finally knocking on the door of the dream job with a regional airline.

Now they arbitrarily added over 1000 hours to the dross part. How long to get that extra? Years and years. Meanwhile wanting to pay off the huge debt. No guarantee of a job either, what have those youngsters been doing? Judging by the training statistics, they have not been choosing flying as a career.

Whatever the reason, and I still say that the rule change was a major one, regional carriers cannot find pilots. Look at their ads, what they are offering for the small supply available now.

How you can deny the obvious facts I don't know. What will it take before the industry wakes up?
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