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Old 11th May 2017, 16:43
  #38 (permalink)  
boofhead
 
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Pacific
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You do seem to be avoiding the fact that your location inevitably has an impact resulting in a relatively small pool of pilots willing to apply. Having worked occasionally in Alaska it became obvious to me fairly quickly that most of those pilots who were content to live and work there indefinitely had been born and bred there. It's an extremely uncomfortable environment, difficult, expensive and a very long and expensive way from the lower 48 where family and friends are located. Taking all this into account you can hardly be surprised that pilots with many options are not beating a path to your door. Inevitably you're going to have to attract local pilots and that means competing with other operators when it comes to employment packages and ticketing prices. I think this has very little to do with the 1500 hr rule and a lot to do with what people in the outlying communities are prepared to pay for an air service, maybe they should be encouraged to campaign for more government subsidies.[/quote]

I guess I am too close. I try to illustrate what I see is the real problem by personal anecdotes. I agree that I need to compete for the available pilots and I agree that an Alaskan pilot has a far better chance of working here because knowing how to fly here is the most important indication of whether the pilot will be safe. So I talk about what I know.

What really drives me in this matter is the damage being done to the US aviation industry. By cutting the supply of pilots through this stupid and unnecessary 1500 hour rule it has, most importantly, caused a shortage in the newbie ranks. Hardly anyone sees an airline pilot career as being viable any longer. New pilot starts are way down, flight schools are closing, the number of pilots as shown by FAA records are way down.

Without a strong base, the entire edifice of aviation as it is practiced in the US will collapse. If the public cannot afford to fly, they will find alternatives. telephone/computer/Skype and such already reduces the need to travel, and drones can do a lot of what airplanes flown by real pilots used to do.

If the salaries and costs go up because of a pilot shortage many companies will go out of business. Look at what the increased minimum wage is doing to the fast food and restaurant business. Even MacDonalds is starting to use robots. Have you ever been to Japan and seen the things you can buy from vending machines? No employees in sight.

As the industry accommodates to the shortage it will shrink and there will be fewer job opportunities as a result. Fewer pilots and therefore fewer jobs will be the new norm.

When the industry becomes smaller, there will be fewer jobs at the top, too. Those who are doing well right now, being paid more than they ever thought they would, could find themselves out on the street and wondering how it all went so badly wrong.

Jobs have always been cyclic. We should be more aware than most that what goes up must come down.
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